Community Prospect #66

by Brickhaus on Jan 29, 2008 10:04 AM EST Comment 32 comments

JR Towles won the last one in a runoff. Interest seems to be waning in the list in general - please let me know if you think we should stop at #75. Also, I've gotten busier personally, so I'm not sure if anyone else wants to take back over for a while....

Also, because there are so many candidates, I'm using about 8% as my cutoff for turnover for the time being, but Fowler and Swarzak should be back on next poll.

LIST

1. Jay Bruce OF CIN
2. Evan Longoria 3B TB
3. Colby Rasmus OF STL
4. Clay Buchholz RHP BOS
5. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD
6. Joba Chamberlain RHP NYY
7. Cameron Maybin OF FLA
8. Homer Bailey RHP CIN
9. David Price LHP TB
10. Andy LaRoche 3B LAD
11. Jacob McGee LHP TB
12. Johnny Cueto RHP CIN
13. Travis Snider OF TOR
14. Brandon Wood 3B/SS CAL
15. Matt Wieters C BAL
16. Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS
17. (T) Joey Votto 1B CIN
17. (T) Andrew McCutchen OF PIT
19. Wade Davis RHP TB
20. (T) Chase Headley 3B SD
20. (T) Reid Brignac SS TB
22. Daric Barton 1B OAK
23. Rick Porcello RHP DET
24. Franklin Morales LHP COL
25. Jeff Clement C SEA
26. Matt LaPorta OF/1B MIL
27. Mike Moustakas SS KC
28. Chris Marrero OF WAS
29. Fernando Martinez OF NYM
30. Matt Antonelli 2B SD
31. Desmond Jennings OF TB
32. Carlos Gonzalez OF OAK
33. Jason Heyward OF ATL
34. Fautino de los Santos RHP OAK
35. Jed Lowrie SS BOS
36. Angel Villalona 3B SF
37. Gio Gonzalez LHP OAK
38. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY
39. Carlos Triunfel SS SEA
40. Steven Pearce 1B/OF PIT
41. Jordan Schafer OF ATL
(Kosuke Fukudome OF CHC)
42. Adam Miller RHP CLE
43. Nick Adenhart RHP CAL
44. Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
45. Austin Jackson OF NYY
46. Eric Hurley RHP TEX
47. Jose Tabata OF NYY
48. Geovany Soto C CHC
49. Lars Anderson 1B BOS
50. Chin-Lung Hu SS LA
51. Chris Davis 3B TEX
52. Luke Hochevar RHP KC
53. Jarrod Parker RHP ARI
54. Taylor Teagarden C TEX
55. Manny Parra LHP MIL
56. Deolis Guerra RHP NYM
57. Neil Walker 3B PIT
58. Josh Vitters 3B CHC
59. Ross Detwiler LHP WAS
60. Hank Conger C LAA
61. Elvis Andrus SS TEX
62. Ian Stewart 3B COL
63. Jordan Walden RHP LAA
64. Michael Burgess OF WAS
65. JR Towles C HOU

CANDIDATES:
Brett Anderson RHP OAK
James McDonald RHP LA
Brent Lillibridge SS ATL
Tim Alderson LHP SFG
Beau Mills 1B/3B CLE
Justin Masterson RHP BOS
Jaime Garcia LHP STL
Matt Latos RHP SD
Bill Rowell 3B BAL
"Other"

MORE CANDIDATES - PITCHERS
Anthony Swarzak (7/65), Radhames Liz (4/64), Cole Rohrbough (3/64), Alan Horne (3/64), Carlos Carrasco (3/62), Jair Jurrjens (3/61), Justin Masterson (1/59), Hiroki Kuroda (1/59), Jeremy Hellickson (0/59), Will Inman (0/59), Max Scherzer (0/49), Jeff Niemann, Troy Patton, Scott Elbert, Dan Cortes, Michael Bowden, Chris Volstad, Matt Harrison, Brad Lincoln, Chuck Lofgren, Collin Balester, Sean Gallagher, Greg Reynolds, Jeff Manship, Donald Veal, Bryan Morris, Nick Hagadone, Brett Cecil, Joe Savery, James Simmons, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Mortensen, Brett Sinkbeil, Chris Mason, Wilmer Font
Aaron Poreda (4/65), Chris Tillman (1/49c), Trevor Cahill, Kasey Kiker, Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Butler, Michael Main, Omar Poveda, Neftali Feliz, Dellin Betances, Tommy Hanson, Tyler Robertson, Henry Sosa, Brandon Erbe, Kyle Drabek, Jeff Locke, Blake Beavan, Phillippe Aumont, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Latos, Josh Smoker, Chris Withrow, Dan Duffy, Julio Teheran
Jon Meloan, Casey Weathers, Dan Moskos, Chris Perez, Eduardo Morlan, Felipe Paulino del Guidice, Kevin Mulvey, Wade LeBlanc,
MORE CANDIDATES - HITTERS
Dexter Fowler (6/65), Tyler Colvin (4/65), Chris Nelson (1/61), Brandon Jones (0/58), Mat Gamel (1/63), Wes Hodges, Todd Frazier, Jordan Brown, Drew Stubbs, Nolan Reimold, Bryan Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Nate Schierholtz, Kellen Kulbacki, Justin Maxwell, Max Ramirez, Kyle Blanks, Josh Rodriguez, Michael Bourn, Tony Thomas Jr, Brandon Hicks, Oscar Tejada
Nick Weglarz, Ryan Kalish, Gorkys Hernandez, Matt Sweeney, Hector Gomez (1/61), Jesus Montero (1/60), Adrian Cardenas, Gerardo Parra, Cedric Hunter, Nick Noonan, Oscar Tejeda, Kevin Ahrens, Matt Dominguez, Devin Mesoraco, Will Middlebrooks, Wendell Fairley, Andrew Lambo, Ben Revere, Neftali Soto, Engel Beltre, Fernando Perez

Poll

Who is the #66 prospect?

Beau Mills

31 votes

Justin Masterson

17 votes

Jaime Garcia

5 votes

Bill Rowell

28 votes

Matt Latos

2 votes

Other (please specify)

7 votes

Brett Anderson

46 votes

James McDonald

21 votes

Brent Lillibridge

33 votes

Tim Alderson

21 votes

211 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 32 comments

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Other

Poreda

by Dfarth on Jan 29, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Newsletter?

Hod do I sign up for the newsletter? I can't seem to find a link for it.

Thanks,
Eron

by Ozdoltorps on Jan 29, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh

If you are talking about John's newsletter, you get signed up for it when you order the book and provide an E-Mail address.

by Dfarth on Jan 29, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's not correct

the newsletter is separate from the book. john will likely start taking orders for the 2008 newsletter soon.

by larry on Jan 29, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My mistake

by Dfarth on Jan 29, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other

Oscar Tejada

by team name deleted on Jan 29, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Other

Jair Jurrjens

by demondeaconbaseball on Jan 29, 2008 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Haven't been voting lately cause this has turned into quite the joke. Not blaming those who are running this, but some of these people that are getting voted on are ridiculous. Can we go back and just cut this off at #50. From here on out this list is just going to be an embarrassment to the site I think.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 29, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B. Anderson

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 29, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re Lillibridge

Can someone explain to me why this kid gets so much love?

I understand the PCL is more of a hitters league, but at the same age Bobby Crosby posted a line of .299/.386/.530 compared to Lillibridges .280/.340/.420 with some of that being AA. Crosby peaked at 38 on BA's list

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 29, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

maybe because no one

actually thinks that line from the PCL really reflected crosby's true abilities?

by larry on Jan 29, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I'm not saying Crosby profiled to be a .900+ OPS SS, but he was a consensus 1st round pick, posted solid numbers in the minors before exploding in Sacramento.

Lillibridge was a 4th round pick and his .285/.369/.444 career line is even a bit inflated by a tremendous 1/2 season as a 22 year old in A Ball.

I'd just like to know what exactly makes Lillibridge a top 70 prospect

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 29, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

#16

The #16 prospect plays a defense-first position and has virtually the same stats as Lillibridge.

.314/.390/.426

by dkdc on Jan 29, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ellsbury

I think Ellsbury is high, however he plays an elite center field and has 40+ SB potential. Don't think the same can be said for Lillibridge

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jan 29, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

Their minor league stolen base numbers are eerily similar:

Ellsbury: 105 SB, 27 CS
Lillibridge: 105 SB, 27 CS

Both are supposed to be above-average defenders, although Ellsbury certainly has more hype in that department.

by dkdc on Jan 29, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I know how rankings work

Why wasn't he in the top 100 last year? I would go so far as to say Lillibridge had a bit of a let down year, at least numbers wise. Does an ok season in AAA catapult him up 35 spots?

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 29, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he was in the top 100

he was #100.

by larry on Jan 29, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A+

He finished at A+ ball last year when he was with PITT so for him to finish in AAA this year playing as well as he was warrants some attention don't you think?

by Jay212033 on Jan 29, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

At 23? No, not really

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 29, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

And your point is? How old is Lowrie and Ellsbury? He was 22 when he came out of college so I guess that's the only knock he has sgainst him.

by Jay212033 on Jan 29, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

My point is that he's 23. If he wasn't in AAA then he should hardly be considered a prospect

Lowrie in AA .297/.410/.501

Lillibridge in AA .275/.355/.387

Lowrie in AAA .300/.356/.506

Lillibridge in AAA .287/.331/.436

There is no comparison

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 29, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other factors

Lowrie has absolutely no speed, his range at SS isn't that good and he has an average arm at best.

by Jay212033 on Jan 29, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lowrie = 2B

his offense will likely be better but lillibridge is more likely to stay at SS and play above average defense.

by larry on Jan 29, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Incorrect

Well, sorta. I doubt Lillibridge will be an elite CF, but he could certainly win a few GGs at SS. BA's Bill Balew says:

"Lillibridge has the tools to hit leadoff, plus the range and arm strength to play shortstop in the major leagues. His hands work well at the plate and he's adept at using the entire field. He also drives the ball well for a player his size. With above-average speed and savvy, he has succeeded in 79 percent of his pro steal attempts"

KG says:
"He's a solid hitter with surprising pop for his size, already showing a knack for crushing mistakes. His plus speed works for him both on the basepaths and in the field, where he also has solid range and an above-average arm."

He doesn't have the contact skills of Ellsbury but he's got similar plate discipline (maybe even better depending on how much stock you put into his 2006 year). Lillibridge also has quite a bit more pop. The biggest knock is his K-rates which have remained high.

I'd take Ellsbury at this point, but I don't think the margin is nearly as big as this list will reflect.

by mraver on Jan 29, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

people think he's better

than the rest of the guys up for the list? we are getting pretty deep here. starting to get to the point where you can flip a coin between about fifteen or twenty guys and it's tough to argue. you've pretty much got guys who are high ceiling but far away from the majors or closer to the majors but likely to be decent players. lillibridge is the latter.

by larry on Jan 29, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

Take a close look at Lillibridge's stats and you'll know why people are so high on him. Why are people so high on Lowrie when Lillibridge put up equal numbers and plays better defense. This past year Lilli had 22 doubles, 5 triples and 13 HRs he also had 42 SB and was only caught 12 times. His numbers at AAA were better than his AA number so maybe that's why he's getting so much love.

by Jay212033 on Jan 29, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

He had 40 XBH's in 525 at bats. That's bad. Not quite Jacoby Ellsbury bad, but bad

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 29, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Lillibridge is very overrated.

Good prospect? Yes

#66 prospect? No.

Top 100? Maybe.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 29, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Problem is

there really aren't too many guys who objectively deserve to be this high. Most of them either are too inexperienced, too old, haven't performed well enough, or lack tools. Frankly, I'm not too pumped about anyone who hasn't already been ranked, which is perfectly rational IMHO. The guys who have upside have barely played pro ball or haven't performed well. The guys who don't, well, don't.

People are getting awfully nasty just because other people use different consideration sets though. It's not like anyone is getting 40% of the vote here. Every single guy who gets chosen from this point on will only have 15 - 20% support, and that's just how it is. There's a lot of divergence of opinion at the back end.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 29, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Surprised that Brandon Jones hasnt been mentioned more
Surprised that Fowler doesnt get more support
Surprised that noone's talking much about Gorkys. Hi upside guy, CFer w strong arm, excellent speed, lots of tools. Not a power hitter but is supposed to have gap power. Seems like he should get on soon.
Am I overrating Tillman? Supposed to be a hi-upside guy. 2 yrs young for his league, stats were deflated by pitching in one of the premier hitters' parks (Hi Desert) but still good K rate. Seems like he should be getting some consideration now.
Latos seems very similar to Walden. Walden is on already but Latos is getting no support. Seems inconsistent. Are you there, Padres fans?
Seems like Cortes should be getting some mentions

by rhd on Jan 29, 2008 9:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs