Tulo vs. Ramirez

by jmoultz on Jan 28, 2008 6:11 PM EST Comment 14 comments

I know some of you, well, probably most of you follow and are familiar with more advanced stats that define a player's overall contribution to creating runs and preventing runs. I have developed a "calculator" that crunches both sides of the ball for a generic Wins Above Average stat. When I compare Troy Tulowitzski and Hanley Ramirez using 2007 hitting and fielding stats, Tulo comes out 2 Wins better than Ramirez overall. The difference is all in the defense with Ramirez being one of the worst fielding SS's in baseball and Tulo being one of the best. My question is this, whether you crunch the numbers yourself or not: does this make sense intuitively?

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That would depend

On everything you include in your calculations. I'm sure most everyone here is familiar with Bill James' win share. According to that Ramirez is 4 win shares better (1 1/3 wins). You need to have a way to neutralize every stat that you consider. If you feel as though you've reasonably done that, then I would say it makes sense. I'm still going to take Bill James over anyone else when it comes to statistcal analysis, though (no offense).

by ajake57 on Jan 28, 2008 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Question

Would be did take into account their hitting environment when calculating your stat. If the stats are in a vacuum, I think that it should be close. But, Tulow's stats show that his offense was heavily COL dependent. Thus, when park factors are considered, I think Hanley should come out slightly on top.

Can you imagine the numbers he would put up in Colorado?

by Dfarth on Jan 28, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

Using just runs created, Hanley Ramirez had and RC of 141 last year to Tulowitzki's 103. Runs Created doesn't take park factors into consideration either so add whatever you feel is appropriate to a conservative 40 run offensive difference. So unless you think there is a 60 run gap (40 difference in offense + 2 wins (approx 20 runs?)) between Tulowitzki and Hanley, then I would say your formula is off.

by Trenchtown on Jan 28, 2008 7:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You missed parts...

First, he isn't using the regular runs created stat, he has made his own formula. Also, I believe Runs Created is purely a hitting stat and does not take into account defense. Hanley committed 13 more errors and had 16 less double plays. How many extra runs does that equal?

I personally would prefer Tulo to Hanley because of the defensive differences in them. I don't think Hanley's offensive production is so much greater than Tulo's to offset the defense. And don't forget the other parts of the game the defense affects. Pitchers throwing more pitches because of extra outs, having to use the bullpen more, disappointed pitchers who Hanley let down, etc.

Jmoultz... I doubt these are the only two you have tried this formula with, has it worked for most other players, fitting them into the order you think they would rank? If so, then the formula is working. Is there a way you can post the formula here so others can see it? I'd be interested in it.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 28, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You infered things I did not say

I was using Runs Created, I realize his formula is of his own construction. What I was saying is my quick calculation that Hanley's bat was better by 40 runs+ then that for Tulo to be 2 wins better then Hanley it would mean Tulowitzki's defense would have had to been about 60 runs better then Ramirez which I am very very skeptical of

by Trenchtown on Jan 29, 2008 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hanley's D

I admit to not seeing him much so what is it about his play at short that makes him so poor? Lack of tools? Poor concentration? What?

Just wondering. Thanks.

by bluechipper on Jan 28, 2008 7:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kind of the same as Jeter problems

Hanley has excellent tools and fantastic speed obviously, but his footwork is mediocre and his first step is awful which inhibits his range. He could be a fantastic center fielder where his raw speed could make up for a slow reaction off the bat

by Trenchtown on Jan 29, 2008 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Makes sense

to me. Ramirez is a wood butcher with blunt tools. Defense up the middle is paramount and he is such a liability there. I admit not being that well versed in defensive metrics, but I think that goes for everyone to some degree as they aren't nearly as cut and dry as batting stats. I saw about 10 of Hanley's games last year and from what I saw, Tulo coming out ahead doesn't surprise me. Only a matter of a year or two before he gets moved from SS IMO.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Jan 28, 2008 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

espn had a debate on these two which is what im assuming provided the inspiration of this thread. anyway if you want to grade them on a fantasy perspective then hanley hands down. in a real world baseball perspective then it's arguable. i don't think tulo will ever match hanley's production, but if you include his defense then as for now i'd pick tulo of hanley.

by bk11 on Jan 28, 2008 10:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Intangibles?

Should this be part of the equation? Tulo definitely gets the nod here; but what is it worth? Anything? Hands down Hanley is the better Offensive player as the numbers above indicate. He definitely should be converted to a center fielder. It could even help his offense since he would be performing at a less stressful position.

by butkussayers on Jan 29, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Update

Thanks for the feedback guys. To answer as many questions as possible:

-formula does account for parks and is based on OBP, SLG, positional adjustments, PA (tip of Hat to Tom Tango for his help)
-offense has Ramirez 3 Wins better than Tulo
-defense has Tulo 5 Wins better than Ramirez (tip of hat to Dave Studeman and Dave Gasko for their help)
-Wins Shares is based on Wins a team won in real life, not a "pure" or "absolute" accounting of run creating/preventing...it doesn't work for this exercise...but James is brilliant, no question there
-question is not about who is the better player, it's only about raw contribution from last season and going forward (so no thought of intangibles)

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Jan 29, 2008 1:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

More updates

-Trenchtown: Runs Created (at least the Hardball Times version) does take into account park factors. THT has Ramirez at 128 RC and Tulo at 89, so this backs up where I have them at about 4 games difference when considering only hitting
-Boxcutter: I have run these calculations for many players at many different positions, and so far it all makes perfect sense.
-general: regarding the defensive Wins Above Average I'm using, the numbers do check out with both Pinto's Probablistic Model of Range (PMR) and Dewan's +/- System. I consider those, along with the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) and Plays Made Outside Zone (OOZ) I'm using, to be the most advanced and accurate defensive metrics available.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Jan 29, 2008 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Far too obtuse

There are just too many differences, that I can't accept any defensive stat. Everything from the kind of turf being used, the dampness of the field (it's incredibly more humid in SoFla than in Denver). Not to mention the personnel that surrounds the player. Mike Jacobs is well below average at 1st base, and raises the throwing error count for most all of the Marlins fielders by not getting to balls the average 1B does.

There's just too much of a variable. The +/- minus system is the best I've seen, because it requires games to be watch.

Hanley was always considerate an adequate to plus defender in the Rox organization. It takes time to adjust; I admire Tulo for the quick adaptations he has made.

by bucklin12 on Jan 29, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

Hanley is terrible at SS, this goes far beyond humidity and adjustment. Saying he can adjust to SS and be a good defender there is like saying Juan Pierre can adjust to Dodger Stadium and hit 50 bombs.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Jan 30, 2008 4:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs