we'll know exactly who the Mariners are giving up until Tuesday or possibly even Wednesday.  It looks like Jones and Tillman are in there for sure but other than that the reports are all over the place.  Some say Sherill is heading to Baltimore for a physical though the most recent report says that's news to him.  It will most likely be 4 players not 3 though.

I think the Mariners are closer to the Angles than a lot seem to think.  If the Angles underachieve I think they have a shot at the west.  The wild card should be too strong for them to overtake if they don't win the west though.  We'll see.

This is a nice trade for both sides if the M's do not give up more than Jones, Sherrill, and Tillman.  Personally, I do not believe that Jones is going to be the "superstar" that many bloggers on this site believe he will be.  When I watched him at Tacoma and Seattle,  I saw Mike Cameron as a viable comparison (with a better arm and less baserunning prowess).  

Jones' tools are very evident, yet I still believe him to be quite raw to be an everyday major league player.  He is prone to taking poor routes on balls and, often, looked overmatched against ML pitching.  

Rumors from M's camp are that they will pursue a veteran to play right field in Safeco, instead of handing the job to Balentien.  Early speculation is that Luis Gonzalez will fulfill this role.  I believe that Balentien will eventually be a more productive hitter than Jones for power and run production.  

Tillman will be missed, however, he is essentially the same pitcher that Morrow is.  As for Sherill, his loss will only be mitigated if Ryan Rowland-Smith can duplicate his late season performance from last year in a similar role.  I believe he can.

In essence, the Mariners with this trade have plotted out a course for the next 3-5 years of being a playoff calibur rotation that should effectively eat innings to alleviate the workload that overwhelmed the bullpen last year.

Rotation in '08

Felix
Bedard
Silva
Bautista
Washburn/Morrow
        ---Will Morrow resume his setup role now?

Lineup in '08

Ichiro
Vidro
Beltre
Ibanez
Gonzalez
Sexson
Lopez
Betancourt (he might hit 2nd)

If I am the M's, I send Clement to AAA with a firstbaseman's glove and pray that Sexson gets off to an uncustomary hot start.  If the M's can find a suitor, I am sure they would be willing to eat a significant amount of his contract.  .  Clement is ready to be inserted into the M's lineup and would provide the left handed pop that has been sorely missed since the days of Ken Griffey Jr.  Also, placing him at 1st will add a couple of 30 HR seasons to his promising career.

I send Balentien to AAA and say duplicate last year's production while shopping Ibanez.

All in all, this trade makes the M's a 90+ win team that will go down to the wire with the Angels for the West.

Regardless of the results, it is nice to see the M's finally make an aggressive and impactful deal.  

Your thoughts are welcome!

I noticed that I only had 8 hitters in the '08 lineup.  Insert Johjima in the 6th spot between Luis Gonzalez and Richie Sexson. :)

When it comes to guys who haven't done anything at the major league level, many people love to play projection games. It seems like every elite prospect is a "possible 30/10 man that comes with gold glove defense [and] a .280-.300 average" - but how many of them actually pan out that way?

In fact, many of MLB's brightest stars WEREN'T top-rated prospects; for every Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, there's an Albert Pujols and - hey! - Erik Bedard. Some guys are better in the majors than the minors - and some guys are better in the minors than the majors.

My point is that prospect fans often devalue ACTUAL performance and overvalue projected performance.

In this case, you're talking about a pitching prospect, a hitting prospect, a good reliever (although most teams have those), and a nobody for an elite pitcher who is elite NOW. To me, there's no comparison; Jones hasn't done anything in his two cups of coffee, hasn't won playing time on a terrible team, and didn't get stronger in September (vs. August). Maybe Chris Sherril will be good; we already KNOW that Erik Bedard is good. Maybe Jones will be good; again, you already KNOW that Bedard is good. What are the odds that both guys will pan out? What are the odds that either guy will ever be as good as Bedard already is - and that THOSE guys wouldn't leave, either? The Pierzynski trade is an extreme exception - that's why it's so notable.

Can Bedard leave in a couple of years? Yes. However, you now have exclusive rights to a potential Cy Young winner for those two years, and the first crack at re-signing him because he's already on your roster! I value Bedard more highly than Jones even if he hits his ceiling, and I'd take him over the prospects any day. Projection is fun, but even projection is about performance - and I prefer the known quantity to the unpredictable.

Seatle's defense is terrible. Last year they were second to LAST in the Majors at converting balls in play into outs. That's what you're missing, but you're not alone, and that's why there are so many people who think Mariners fans are crazy for not wanting to give up Jones straight up for Bedard.

It's not that a prospect of Jones' quality isn't worth Bedard. It's that if the Mariners want to contend in 2008, trading Jones for Bedard is emptying one hole to fill another because Jones' projected offense is comparable to the guy he is replacing (Guillen) and you're replacing an iron glove with a center fielder's glove.

If you switch Jones with Triunfel, who many believe is actually a better prospect than Jones, then there are significantly less Mariners fans who have a problem with the trade, because the Mariners at the very least aren't shooting themselves in the foot and not even realizing it.

win even 88 games this year again, I'll be shocked.

Last year WAS a fluke.