Trade Advice: Joe Nathan for whom?

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 12:07 AM EST Comment 20 comments

Ok, Im in a 10 team, AL only, 5X5(OBP instead of AVG), Dynasty, salary(~130M$ cap), H2H league. I hesitate to ask this here b/c the rules of my league are fairly uncommon(though straightforward). They can be found here, if youre interested: http://www.bradarbige.com/baseball.htm

Well, anyway, my team is in need of a 3B for the upcoming season. At auction only Mike Lamb and Akinori Iwamura will be available. I desperately need HRs as it stands. So Im shopping Joe Nathan for a better option.

Now, player salaries, briefly, are determined two ways: 1) the price won at auction - for the real life length of years OR 2) when a player re-signs in real life - his real life length and salary. So Joe Nathan is signed for 1 year, 6 Million. The reason I would be willing to move him is to fix my lineup issues. My offense is essentially Big Papi and Curtis Granderson.

Now, where it gets interesting is that I have a number of offers for Nathan:

Kevin Youkilis, for real life salary, and control thereafter...
Adrian Beltre, for 9.5M per, with two years remaining
Hank Blalock, for 11.5, for one year, AND Wade Davis
Hank Blalock AND Adam Miller AND ~2 Million
Hank Blalock AND TWO OF Justin Masterson, Tony Butler, Jeff Niemann, Lance Broadway AND ~3 Million.

*) Keep Nathan/Shop him for prospects and sign Iwamura/Lamb

I have no idea what Im going to do right now, and although it doesnt make much sense any feedback would be appreciated. I have a decent amount of cap space, but I do need to fill my UTIL spot, and hopefully with a power hitter (Carlos Pena? Jack Cust?). Id also like to get in on a couple starting pitchers, if I can, so the cost certainty of trading for a 3B is desirable on that front.

My pitching staff is the best in the league: Beckett, Lackey, Vazquez, Bonderman and Millwood(with Garrett Olson and Luke Hochevar waiting in the wings on my MiLB roster). My offense worries me a ton though, so Im very willing to punt saves - and have been willing to do so for a while. Its just that Nathan was such a bargain that I couldnt do it. Youre only permitted to keep playes who re-sign with the same team(ie. If a player leaves his team via free agency he MUST go into the auction and cant be re-signed). In addition Id have to re-sign Nathan at whatever price he re-signs in real life and I have no desire to do that. I just cant see spending it on a 1 category player.

Well, anyway, thanks for the insights.

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Hmmm...

Of those options, I'd go with option 1, Youkilis. Does Youk qualify as 3b right now in your league though? If he does, clearly him because while he won't help you in HR, his OBP will be nice.

I'd shy away from Blalock completely because 1) his home/road splits are atrocious, and he might be moved elsewhere in real life quite soon, and 2) I know for a FACT from a couple sources that he used performance-enhancers. Not a guy I'd want for that fact as well.

Thought option 3 is pretty interesting because of Wade Davis. Even option 5 is interesting because I do like Niemann, at the very least as a reliever.

Anyway, that's my two cents.

by DJSkillz on Jan 28, 2008 1:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Right

On a player/talent basis I would favor Youk and Beltre above Blalock. Further, Hank's contract sucks, which is why he's so readily available - AND the idea is I get a sweetener in the form of prospect(s) and/or money. So there's that - which could be preferable to trading Nathan just to fill a hole.

I think the Davis trade is my favorite so far, but he's not so hot on including him - essentially told me if he does decide to do Davis I get no money or other prospects - which seems fair. But Blalock is someone he wants to get rid of in a sense, so I dont want to be trading Nathan straight up for middling prospects...

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltre

Not sure I would make any of those trades, but if you are looking for HR's, Beltre is your best bet out of those choices.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 28, 2008 1:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My biggest concern

is that Im trading quality for something less to fill a hole. That bothers me. Makes me lean towards the deals where I get prospects at the very least...

OTOH, Nathan is old, will have a bad contract within a year from now, and although he's a nasty closer, I dont value closers particularly high - and I believe others do enough to represent potential value there for me...

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 2:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True...

if HR's are a drastic need, specifically from 3b, then he might be your guy.

by DJSkillz on Jan 28, 2008 1:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmm

hard to say. i think youkilis is the best option there. beltre has potential to do a lot in hrs, but i just dont see him hitting significantly more hrs (5-10) than youkilis.

by bk11 on Jan 28, 2008 2:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's what bothers me

Im not confident Belre has significantly more HR power to overcome his OBP problems - which again, he's a pretty big negative in an OBP league. BUT I dont need Youk types - I have plenty of those and a very high OBP as a team. So I could suffer one HR masher who doesnt walk.

Another downside to Youk is that I have Oriz, Pedroia and Ellsbury already... and although I am a Sox fan, that's more than Id like on one team...

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and a step further

makes me think:

3B is typically the easiest or among the easiest positions to fill in fantasy baseball
If the difference between Beltre and Youk isnt enough to get worked up about... is the difference between Youk and Iwamura or Lamb enough to justify keeping Nathan and paying one of those stiffs?

Ahh... I dont know anymore... I really cant wrap my head around what I want to do. Im back to back champion of this league too, but my offense is a grave concern in 08. I dont want to just rest on my laurels...

Thanks for the responses, though. Youve all given me quite a bit to think about. I think Im going to wait for the PECOTAs to come out anyway.

For a little more info, here is my lineup w/contract info:

C Kurt Suzuki (.35 - drafted as MiLB)
1B David Ortiz (13M 2010)
2B Dustin Pedroia (.35 - drafted as MiLB)
3B
SS Orlando Cabrera (8M 2008)
OF Delmon Young (1.16M 2008+)
OF Curtis Granderson (4.5M 2008+)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (.35 - drafted as MiLB)
UTIL

BN Asdrubal Cabrera (.35 - drafted as MiLB)

Again, as long as they stay on the same team you can control the player at his real life salary(but NEVER less than you paid at auction)

I wont go into my pitching staff but suffice to say my payroll stands at around 97 million. The cap is set at the average of the top 220 players's real life salaries in the AL(22 players per fantasy team...). We expect it to be around $130 Million.

Thanks again to everyone.

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 2:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As for my UTIL

Im obviously targeting Pena. Pena, Cust, Gomes are among the best available bats. Even though I have a good amount of cap space I cant see myself overpaying for Pena - which is what it would take to get him. Remember, too, as his real life contract is for 3 years now, whoever signs him in our auction is signing him for 3 years... so there is some risk there. There are other bats available like Micheal Young, but Ive only listed the guys I think will be appropriately valued for my UTIL spot. Guys who play skill positions will be overvalued in the auction, of course.

I can also, as an alternative, keep Mark Teahen at 7.5M. This would exacerbate my HR problem, though. Teahen no longer qualifies at 3B this year... which is the source of this entire problem.

Milton Bradley, Jason Kubel, Jose Guillen are among others available. Carmona, Scott Baker, Shawn Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Carlos Silva and possibly Paul Byrd are among the pitchers available - that's it though really, Greinke too. And EVERY SINGLE TEAM is desperate for more pitching.

So b/c I cant imagine getting Pena, Im looking at Cust for my UTIL. That's why I desperately need to get HRs from 3B. Not much is available anywhere though. Its a crazy intense league.

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 2:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just my two cents...

but I'd stay away from Cust. I really think he'll regress this year compared to last year and the A's might have a whole lot of options at DH by midseason. Buck/Johnson/Denorfia/Barton. And there's so many cheap options still out there in FA I wouldn't put it past Beane to buy one cheaply and flip Cust to someone.

Also, I might be biased as a Twins fan, but of those UTIL guys, after Pena, I'd be all over Kubel. I really think he's in for a BIG year this year. This guy was one the level of Mauer/Morneau as a hitting prospect before his knee injury and he seems to be fully recovered from that. The 2nd half of last year he put up a .953 OPS, the best on the Twins. Now that's a small sample size to be sure, but he was getting a lot more comfortable, and the talent is there. For what it's worth BP also just projected him for their top 10 "breakout performers" list, along with guys like Rickie Weeks and Ryan Zimmerman.

I'd say make a big big push for him amongst those options. I'd take him over anyone but Pena on your list.

by DJSkillz on Jan 28, 2008 3:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

is definitely someone Im targeting. I was hoping to pick him up cheap and pair him with Cust or stash him on the bench. I know at least two other GMs in my league who were thinking the same thing, though...

I would still rank Cust above Kubel b/c of the OBP issue. With an OBP league and my team in dire need of HRs... well, those are the two things Cust brings lots of...

Im really hoping people go crazy for Cliff Floyd or Milton Bradley. If I miss on Cust and Pena I could be pretty happy with Kubel and Gomes and say Mark Ellis on my bench. Thats a bunch of options. The problem is that any player worth putting in your starting lineup is a 10 million dollar player in our league. I cant see spending that for a lot of these guys.

If anyone is looking for a really fun format for a league, they should take a look at the way we do it. Its phenomenal... and everyone is into it 24/7 365 days. Text messages flying back and forth all year round and persistant trade discussions throughout football season. Its absurd. Ridiculous how much fun we all have with this league. It takes a little work from the commissioner to make it work, but its worth it.

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 4:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cust is very good in OBP...

and you're right, better than Kubel there. But I do think Kubel will show a big improvement in OBP this year. In fact, that's the thing that he got back to best in the 2nd half last year. He had a .379 OBP after the break.

In the minors, he was .385 in OBP. The big thing that you could see the 2nd half of last year is that after all the time missed, etc., he was finally recognizing pitches with regularity again, etc.

I know I'm pimping Kubel pretty good right now, and obviously I'm Twins-biased, but I really do see a big breakout year for him this year. People are definitely sleeping on him.

by DJSkillz on Jan 28, 2008 5:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cust

he might regress, but not much, his main problem is contact with 2 strikes, when he makes contact he is awesome. I think his numbers were pretty much in line which what he did in the minors.

by jahs34 on Jan 28, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

well if it won't kill your obp then acquiring beltre is a decent option. i think he'll be good for 20-30hrs next yr.
however something to think about might be to take youkilis (his contract looks amazing) and then deal one of your other non-hr bats for more power. that said im not exactly sure what's avaliable cauz i've never played in an AL only.

by bk11 on Jan 28, 2008 4:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i would

go with the Youkilis option. Then use the savings you earned from the trade and really sell out to get Pena at auction.

by kaisertown on Jan 28, 2008 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Option 3

The third option is the one you should go for. Yes Blalock's contract isn't so good, but it's only for 1 year and you get Davis too. Now, it's a very limited sample size, but Blalock also had a decent year last year and maybe he'll have another one. He might not, but neither Beltre or Youkilis will give you much more of what you need. Beltre, in my mind, is an automatic no with the two year contract and horrible OBP. Take the prospect and the limited commitment to Blalock and hope you get a little lucky.

by marcello on Jan 28, 2008 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

by scarfo on Jan 28, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ill say this

The salary structure of our league assures you that young, cheap pitchers are worth their weight in gold. Carmona we all expect to fetch 20-25M in the auction. All those other pitchers listed above will likely break 10... and that is some kind of underwhelming list... (Baker, Guthrie, Marcum, Grienke, etc...). Pitching is just that hard to get.

Also, I LOVE Wade Davis. I actually question whether he would actually do this or is just trying some sort of negotiating tactic to stop me from doing another trade.

I know that, at the least, he is uncomfortable trading Davis. The reason I asked initially is that he discussed trading him for the 3rd overall pick in our MiLB draft - which he expects to be able to take Wieters with. That seems ludicrous to me. Id take Davis over Wieters any day - even though I would consider taking Wieters over Price if I had had the 1st overall pick in the MiLB draft.

by alskor on Jan 28, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Young pitching

Given that, I would say it's almost a slam dunk. You'll get Davis for the next 5-7 years at a great price (assuming he's healthy and sticks in the majors).

by marcello on Jan 28, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MADE THE TRADE

I pulled the trigger on Nathan for Youkilis and 3 Million dollars.

Thanks for all the help.

The Davis offer in the end seemed more of a feint. And the other deals all wanted high draft picks back to increase their offers and to get the players I really wanted. I even got a couple crazy last minute offers, but people seemed shy about actually doing the deal so I asked for final offers, Went back to the Youk owner and asked if he'd do 3 million and he said yes. So He's essentially paying You to pay for me and my team is set outside of UTIL and possibly a SP.

by alskor on Jan 29, 2008 8:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs