Controversial Prospect: Engel Beltre

by John Sickels on Jan 25, 2008 6:32 PM EST in News Comment 27 comments

The Rangers picked up Engel Beltre from the Red Sox in the Eric Gagne deal. He has excellent tools, there is no doubt about this. And he's young, born November 1, 1989.

I got some flack for rating him as a Grade C prospect in the book. Looking at it, I can see a case for Grade C+, given his strong scouting reports. But no higher than that at this point, not with these kind of performance numbers. He hit .208/.310/.400 with 44 strikeouts in 34 games for the GCL Red Sox. He then hit .310/.388/.583 in 22 games for the AZL Rangers after the trade, followed by .211/.250/.211 in nine games for Spokane. All told he hit a combined .243/.329/.433 in 65 games last year.

Near as I can tell, people are drooling over him because of the 22 games of hot hitting in the Arizona Rookie League, but are ignoring the 43 games of mediocre-to-poor hitting at the other two stops.

As stated, I can see him as a Grade C+. He's young, he's got a lot of power, and scouts like him. But his strike zone judgment is poor, his strikeout rate is very high, and even the scouts say he's raw.

It's too late to change the grade for the book, but I want to be more out of Beltre before buying into all the hype of him as a future star. He could turn into a star. But he could also flame out against advanced pitching, and I haven't seen enough to decide which is more likely. Thus the grade.

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Beltre in the AZL

.310/.388/.583

by jparks77 on Jan 25, 2008 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not to offend, but can you read?

'..people are drooling over him because of the 22 games of hot hitting in the Arizona Rookie League, but are ignoring the 43 games of mediocre-to-poor hitting at the other two stops.'

Beltre outside the AZL: .208 with 30% Ks in the GCL, .211 with 0% XBHs in the NWL.

84 nice AB in the AZL do not erase 125 middlin' AB in the GCL and 38 abysmal ones in the NWL.

Would I like my team to have him? Heck, yes. Would I rate his AZL performance as his true current skill level? Heck, no.

by wcw on Jan 25, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.288?

Coulda sworn it read .388 when I read it.

Apologies, then, big man. You can't blame me for the misinterpretation, I hope.

by wcw on Jan 25, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn

I thought you gave him a C+. C is pretty harsh, imo.

Yah, he's young. He's ticketed for Clinton (Low-A) next Spring, and if he was an American he'd be heading into his senior season of high school.

That, plus the well documented drool from every scout who's ever seen him makes me think he should be at least a C+, even in your "show me the stats" system, imo.

I almost never get attacked by birds. It's uncanny.

by thedirkatron on Jan 25, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually

He would have graduated from high school last spring and probably would have played rookie ball last summer depending on when he would have signed.

by SBcaptain2 on Jan 25, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Considering he

was born in Nov of '89, I highly doubt that he would have graduated in the Spring of '07. Given his birth date, Beltre would have been a high school senior this year and would be a a top ten pick in the '08 draft.

by jparks77 on Jan 25, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I was born in July of '89 and graduated in the Spring of '07. There were several kids in my class that were born around the same time as Beltre. I guess he could have have been a class of '07 or '08 guy.

by SBcaptain2 on Jan 25, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Most kids...

who are born after August or so aren't allowed to start school until the next year. I think you have to be 5 years old to enter the kindergarten, so those children who were born near the end of the year cannot start until they are 5 (a year later that other kids born in the same year). So he would be turning 18 years old in November of his senior year, unlike spring babies who turn 18 right before graduation (like me, I was born in April and graduated the next month).

So he would most likely be a senior right now, getting ready to graduate in about 4 months and be drafted in 5.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 26, 2008 3:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kindergarten

Is not required everywhere, in many states it's recommended but optional. In some states you just need to show certain skills to be placed into kindergarten or into first grade. Depends on where he lived.

The big point everyone is missing though, is that if Beltre were Doogie Houser he'd be finishing up his term as an intern now...

This is me being polite.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 26, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a week older than Engel

I'll be graduating this June

by mroak89 on Jan 26, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

currently 18 years old

He would be graduating from h.s. this May and like jparks says, he would be a early first rd this June.

by tricer on Jan 25, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

plate discipline

According to BA:

"His pitch recognition improved as the year progressed, as he learned which pitches he could drive and which he should hit on the ground and try to beat out with his plus-plus speed."

And 22 walks in 65 games isn't great by any means, but for a 17 year old Dominican it appears that there is at least some semblance of an ability to lay off some pitches. Also he was HBP 11 times in those 65 games, apparently he isn't afraid to crowd the plate a little.

by tricer on Jan 25, 2008 7:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

HBP

I think the high HBP are probably flukey and make his plate discipline problems seem less severe than they really are.

by aCone419 on Jan 25, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stats

His stats are better than Villalona.

by sully10x on Jan 25, 2008 8:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, hm...

That's incorrect.

by aCone419 on Jan 25, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

it's incorrect

it's extremely unimportant

and, imo, Villalona should be downgraded significantly, so i don't find it a very compelling argument for upgrading Beltre.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 25, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

could either of those guys explode and turn into the next Miggy Cabrera....Yes but its highly unlikely. Way to much smoke for such a small flame in both cases

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 25, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Way too much smoke"?

Really? A C+ sounds about right from Sickels for a guy with super star potential who's got a very small chance of reaching that potential due to age/level.

I don't think a C+ is much smoke at all, actually.

Personally I see him as a B, but I like different things from my prospects than John does.

I almost never get attacked by birds. It's uncanny.

by thedirkatron on Jan 26, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stats...

The fundamental question is: in dealing with a 17-year-old, why are we even talking about stats?

Beltre hasn't grown into his body yet. He is not physically the same player he will be when his peak is determined. His stats as a 17-year-old don't have anything to do with how he'll play in a few years.

Complex league stats have little to no predictive value. Small sample sizes from guys in their age-17 seasons have no predictive value. Yet here we are arguing about a guy whose only data trail is his age-17 season across two complex leagues.

I know most people on this site don't have a direct line to even one scout, let alone several. Rather than pretend to have any kind of a window into this kid's future beyond BA/Goldstein's second-hand info from scouts, how about we all just wait and see before choosing sides on this one?

Reporting on Baseball from around the world! http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott on Jan 25, 2008 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think Sickels is talking about him

because it sells books.

And the rest of us are talking about him because Sickels is. But you do have a solid point that the argument right now boils down to the question of trust in the second hand scouting reports or not.

by tricer on Jan 25, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think this is too often overlooked, but the earlier it is in a player's development, the more stats are overvalued; and the later it is in a player's development, the more they're undervalued. I think we get so caught up in envisioning what such a young teenager can possibly accomplish in his career that we forget that very few of these guys become the next top, top prospect of Adrian Beltre proportions. I'm not saying we do this to quite this level of intensity [reading people's posts here, I know all you regulars aren't NEARLY that naive (:], rather, just a very small fraction of that intensity. Just enough that when a prospect doesn't even approach sub par, raw numbers that his accomplishments go beyond recognition (accomplishments sometimes being merely a 16 year old holding his own against much older and refined competition -- this is very easy to underrate). It's always worth a second look, especially with real young and/or toolsy prospects. If he's got a reputation for being raw, you always have to look past the numbers, impressive at first sight or not. Those numbers will always tell you lies, even in spots when they're super impressive.

I believe Engel Beltre should be a B-.

by elrey34 on Jan 26, 2008 3:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His AZL stats...

I know of alot of fans that were high on him before his games as a Ranger. I think the scouting reports that are given about him speak much more of him than his AZL stats do. I just look at the AZL stats as a small bonus.

by groundingout on Jan 25, 2008 9:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs