Chris Tillman vs Brandon Erbe

by dkdc on Jan 25, 2008 2:50 PM EST

I'm trying understand why Brandon Erbe is considered a much lesser prospect than Chris Tillman.

John rated Tillman a B+ and Erbe a C+, Goldstein gave Tillman 4 stars and Erbe 3 stars, and Baseball America dropped Erbe to #10 in their Orioles rankings (they haven't rated the Mariners yet).

So the percieved gap between the two is not exactly controversial.

-Both players are the same age (well, Tillman is 3.5 months younger).
-Both are right-handed.
-Both are similar size/build.
-Both have plus fastballs that sit in the mid-90s and can dial it up to 97ish.
-Both have developing changeups and breaking pitches.
-Both shredded the short season leagues and low-A:

Erbe: 145 IP, 11.78 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 0.19 HR/9, 6.33 H/9
Till: 64 IP, 11.11 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, 9.14 H/9

-Both struggled this year in high-A:

Erbe: 119 IP, 8.39 K/9, 4.69 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9, 9.60 H/9
Till: 102 IP, 9.25 K/9, 4.23 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9, 9.25 H/9

Tillman's performance at high-A was slightly better, but Erbe's past performance is stronger (and a bigger sample size). What am I missing?

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My two cents

I'm not all too familiar with either of these prospects, however Chris Tillman's late season success last year really started to build up some hype for himself. Finishing strong with that much potential, even after a pretty bad year is going to put you in a pretty good light.

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by was385 on Jan 25, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions

I'm not sure I buy that

Tillman only had 7 starts in August/September, so that's a pretty small sample size to say he's turned a corner.

In fact, looking closer at August/September, it looks like he had two great starts, and 5 solid starts:

2 great starts: 13IP, 20K, 2BB, 0HR, 7H, 1ER
5 other starts: 26IP, 27K, 16BB, 3HR, 21H, 10ER

So Tillman should get that much of a bump because he had two great starts in August?

by dkdc on Jan 25, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

all I said

was that he had a good stretch run and Erbe didn't.

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by was385 on Jan 25, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Two thoughts

California League is significantly tougher for pitchers compared to the Carolina League, which makes Tillman's performance even more impressive.
Tillman showed improvement and growth over his season, dropping his ERA and raising his K/9 every month from May-August, along with a big drop in BB/9 from May/June to July/August. Erbe was inconsistent all year and really fell apart his last two months, though he was able to maintain a solid strikeout rate.

by patsfan @ Minor League Ball on Jan 25, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions

+1

I think the Cal league/Carolina league settings means the stats comparison is less useful than usual here.

Without researching the Cal league indices, I;d say those numbers from Tilman are very strong, especially from a young guy already thought to have high upside. Erbe's numbers are actually worse, and probably put him more in the middle of the pack...and they reinforce some concerns about him going in.

Whatever the adjustment is for the Cal League, I think they'd be enough for Tillman's to look MUCH better in the Carolina league.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 25, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Fair enough

You are correct that Tillman should be given some extra credit for pitching in a tougher league.

Frederick is a very strong HR park, but Tillman's environment overall was more difficult.

I still don't think there's a full grade difference between these two.

by dkdc on Jan 25, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

+1

And may I add on that High Desert is the worst pitching environment on the face of the Earth, and I'm surprised Tillman's numbers are as good as they are. I think similar numbers are likely next year in Double-A even though the competition is obviously and markedly better.

by elrey34 on Jan 25, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I would go further than that - I predict Tillman's numbers to improve at AA, if he stays healthy.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 25, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

As silly as that seems

to the unaware, considering that it's RARE for a High Desert game's score NOT to go into double digits, there IS a lot of logic behind that statement.

by elrey34 on Jan 25, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

Erbe

This says it all: Command problems are the root of Erbe's struggles, and Baltimore thinks that comes down to being able to repeat his delivery consistently and improving his overall confidence and mound presence. When he starts doubting his stuff, he tries to nibble and winds up leaving pitches over the middle of the plate.

In other words, scouts still think he's got the stuff but his delivery issues prevent him from locating it. For pure talent Tillman and Erbe aren't that far from each other, it's just that Tillman is more likely to reach his ceiling based on recent performance.

I love Erbe though, and hope he turns it around.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Jan 25, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions

One thing I noticed

Was that Erbe got worse this year while Tillman improved slightly.

Tillman moved up to a harder league and improved his control while still mantaining a very healthy K rate.

Erbe moved up to the lesser league and saw his K rate drop a lot and his Hit and BB rate rise a lot.

With young prospects you want to see them improving their weaknesses not regressing.

by Kanst42 on Jan 25, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions

Think John mentioned this too

But I have seen some hints at a possible injury that has been masked or hidden also raising some concerns about Erbe. Scott Elbert was ready to break through until his injury last year and it seems as though a lot of people think Erbe has something wrong which may stem from his delivery.

by slickwdb on Jan 25, 2008 3:48 PM EST reply actions