The BJ Upton vs Robinson Cano debate
started over at MVN is drawing plenty of responses across the net. so might as well start here.
It's a pretty silly apples and orange debate as we're pretty positve that Cano could stay at 2B while Upton probably will never be back in the middle infield. they suit their teams perfectly as the Yankees have more trouble finding good players in scarce positions while the Rays simply need good players period .
Still though , seperating the comparason would be interesting, what do people really see in those two going foward?
Cano has essentially blown away all expectations in a way that only Albert Pujols probably surpases , I'm pretty sure Dave Cameron over at USS Mariners still cringe about that .280/.320/.400 player with terrible D in his prime comment in early 05. but it wasn't exactly unfounded at that point. still...
with essentially 3 pretty stable seasons under his belt Cano seems pretty easy to project, people laughed their arse off at the Rod Carew comp by Torre back in 05 but that seems very realistic right now. he's like Carew without the speed but more power.
River Ave Blues did a good search a few days back on Cano. essentially putting him up against all 2Bs in MLB history at the same age stage in terms of OPS+. and Cano is in the very very top echolon.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/jzHQ
Looking at this is pretty shocking, as Cano has essentially destroyed all non - Morgan / Carew / Baerga post war players. he actually has more hits / HR than both Morgan and Carew at the same stage (in less game too!) and just about everyone else for that matter save two guys... Baerga and Alomar.. Alomar mostly because he played more game.
the obvious sticking point in all this is Carlos Baerga, who just bombed after the age of 27. Roberto Alomar also declined sooner than expected. which seem to be the biggest worry right now. but still, on the list the 5 players above him only one player isn't in the hall, and he probably should be (Larry Doyle, a guy the vet committe probably missed ) of the guys blow him. it's still loaded with HOFer or should be HOFers ( Molitor , Sandberg, Frisch, Doerr, Alomar, Herman , Rose , ... yes he's hitting rate is better than PETE ROSE at the same stage)
It seems that if Cano can keep it together. he's on track to cooperstown even at this stage!
BJ Upton is a harder case. talent wise (hitting anyway ) he's obviously above Cano, but not being sure of where he's going to stick on the diamond and that he's only had one very good season so far makes it hard to project. in terms of skillset he reminds me of Curtis Granderson (but then, that's essentially the text book toolsy black CF :P) he's better than Granderson.. but I can't see him taking to the next level of toolsy CF with awsome skillz... IE Ken Griffey Jr / Willie Mays ... or even Gary Sheffield (which is a good comp considering the position moves)... the difference is that those guys almost never whiffs. they were scary beyond all belive.. they were... errr what people thought Jim Rice was. :P
I'm having a hard time finding a reasonable comp for BJ Upton right now he's going to whiff. he might improve it but I don't thikn anyone would belive that he can take it to the Griffey / Mays / Sheffield level . maybe he could be Grady Sizemore? thats the problem though, these type seem to be a new breed of players. it's hard to find a reasonable comp in the past. Granderson .. Sizemore.. these guys are going to whiff, but they're also going to get on base hit for power and steal.
Anyone have a good idea ? finding a good comp for that type of hitter in the past?
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great post
by bk11 on
Jan 24, 2008 6:02 AM EST
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Bobby Bonds is a great comp
by patsfan on
Jan 24, 2008 10:09 AM EST
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bossman junior...
Tampa Bay is going to be so frickin good by 2009 with less than a 1/4 of the payroll of nyy/bos.
by tuna411 on
Jan 24, 2008 9:43 AM EST
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OP
On the flip side with Upton you go out of your way to harp on Upton's flaws stating he whiffs alot 3 times in 2 paragraphs.
by McLovin on
Jan 24, 2008 10:46 AM EST
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I agree that.
The issue here is that if we look at pure OPS rate Cano destroyes every post war guys, he's raw OPS is .835, there's not a single 2B since war world 2 that has a OPS over .800 at this stage . obviously the era context is a serious issue, but that still ... it's pretty special.
His walk rate is indeed the scariest part but he showed enough improvement last year to give confidence.
it's virtually impossible to be completely objective, yes i lean towards Cano perhaps too mcuh
by RollingWave on
Jan 24, 2008 10:02 PM EST
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Oh and
by RollingWave on
Jan 24, 2008 10:13 PM EST
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upton
as an aside, that's why these comps involving a lefty to a righty are always a little weird. i vaguely remember somebody chastising me on this board for citing handedness as a relevant feature when drawing comparisons (i believe it was in the great ellsbury-damon comp threads of last year).
by jpahk on
Jan 24, 2008 11:08 AM EST
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Indeed apples n' oranges
One other thing I'll say about BJ and his strikeout rate. He's always had that problem. Throughout the minors, his K rate was always high and yet he still managed to be bat nearly .300 in his minor league career. I think part of it stems from the fact that he simply takes a lot of pitches. When he does that, he often finds himself in 0-1 and 0-2 counts. It comes with the territory of being a patient hitter. Personally, I don't think it's a problem given the fact he walks so frequently. I may be in the minority, but I think he will continue to hit for high averages throughout his career. He just hits the ball too hard, too consistently not to (when he does make contact). A hitter who used to do that was Jim Rice (another guy who K'd a lot, especially early in his career). I think Upton's career path could be more similar to Rice's than Bonds'. But that's just me.
by dkny22 on
Jan 24, 2008 11:49 AM EST
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correction
by dkny22 on
Jan 24, 2008 11:53 AM EST
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his K rate was high in the minors
2003 (A) - 17.7 % in 453 PA
2003 (AA) - 19.7% in 127 PA
2004 (AA) - 23.3% in 120 PA
2004 (AAA) - 23.0% in 313 PA
2004 (MLB) - 26.0% in 177 PA
2005 (AAA) - 20.1% in 632 PA
2006 (AAA) - 18.9% in 470 PA
2006 (MLB) - 21.2% in 189 PA
2007 (MLB) - 27.9% in 552 PA
i believe his K rate will decrease to the 19-22% range over the next year or two as he improves his game at the MLB level.....the result will be that his average will stay up in the .300-.310 range
by Wheelhouse on
Jan 24, 2008 12:16 PM EST
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This is true...
I'm with you in that I believe he will cut down on the K rate and settle in as a .300+ hitter. I think he'll always strikeout a lot, but when you consider everything else he brings to the table, it makes the Ks a lot easier to accept.
by dkny22 on
Jan 24, 2008 12:38 PM EST
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Upton Comps
I would like to compare him most to Alex Rodriguez, but instead of 40-50 homers, more like 25-35 homers. Nothing to complain about, though.
by BlackOps on
Jan 24, 2008 11:54 AM EST
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BOSSMAN
by daveh33 on
Jan 24, 2008 3:01 PM EST
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Yup
by patsfan on
Jan 24, 2008 3:31 PM EST
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I Agree
Matt
by WayneCampbell05 on
Jan 24, 2008 4:42 PM EST
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Well with Cano inconcern with the walks
Last year, when he was struggling in the first half of the year, he was swinging at alot bad pitchers and pitchers were exploiting his lack patience at the plate.
Then all of a sudden in the second half of the season his patience improve and then he took off like crazy and became the yankees best hitter not name Posada or A-Rod.
So while his plate disipline was and still is an issue, he did improve very well with that aspect of his game last year in the second half.
by NYYLover1000 on
Jan 24, 2008 4:51 PM EST
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The best comp...
As for the debate of Cano vs. BJ, yes, apples and oranges. As hitters, I'll take Upton with his huge OPS potential and speed that runs circles around Cano.
by butkussayers on
Jan 24, 2008 5:21 PM EST
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