The BJ Upton vs Robinson Cano debate

by RollingWave on Jan 24, 2008 3:28 AM EST Comment 20 comments

started over at MVN is drawing plenty of responses across the net. so might as well start here.

It's a pretty silly apples and orange debate as we're pretty positve that Cano could stay at 2B while Upton probably will never be back in the middle infield. they suit their teams perfectly as the Yankees have more trouble finding good players in scarce positions while the Rays simply need good players period .

Still though , seperating the comparason would be interesting, what do people really see in those two going foward?

Cano has essentially blown away all expectations in a way that only Albert Pujols probably surpases , I'm pretty sure Dave Cameron over at USS Mariners still cringe about that .280/.320/.400 player with terrible D in his prime comment in early 05. but it wasn't exactly unfounded at that point. still...

with essentially 3 pretty stable seasons under his belt Cano seems pretty easy to project, people laughed their arse off at the Rod Carew comp by Torre back in 05 but that seems very realistic right now. he's like Carew without the speed but more power.

River Ave Blues did a good search a few days back on Cano. essentially putting him up against all 2Bs in MLB history at the same age stage in terms of OPS+. and Cano is in the very very top echolon.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/jzHQ

Looking at this is pretty shocking, as Cano has essentially destroyed all non - Morgan / Carew / Baerga post war players. he actually has more hits / HR than both Morgan and Carew at the same stage (in less game too!) and just about everyone else for that matter save two guys... Baerga and Alomar.. Alomar mostly because he played more game.

the obvious sticking point in all this is Carlos Baerga, who just bombed after the age of 27. Roberto Alomar also declined sooner than expected. which seem to be the biggest worry right now. but still, on the list the 5 players above him only one player isn't in the hall, and he probably should be (Larry Doyle, a guy the vet committe probably missed ) of the guys blow him. it's still loaded with HOFer or should be HOFers ( Molitor , Sandberg, Frisch, Doerr, Alomar, Herman , Rose , ... yes he's hitting rate is better than PETE ROSE at the same stage)

It seems that if Cano can keep it together. he's on track to cooperstown even at this stage!

BJ Upton is a harder case. talent wise (hitting anyway ) he's obviously above Cano, but not being sure of where he's going to stick on the diamond and that he's only had one very good season so far makes it hard to project. in terms of skillset he reminds me of Curtis Granderson (but then, that's essentially the text book toolsy black CF :P) he's better than Granderson.. but I can't see him taking to the next level of toolsy CF with awsome skillz... IE Ken Griffey Jr / Willie Mays ... or even Gary Sheffield (which is a good comp considering the position moves)... the difference is that those guys almost never whiffs. they were scary beyond all belive.. they were... errr what people thought Jim Rice was. :P

I'm having a hard time finding a reasonable comp for BJ Upton right now he's going to whiff. he might improve it but I don't thikn anyone would belive that he can take it to the Griffey / Mays / Sheffield level . maybe he could be Grady Sizemore? thats the problem though, these type seem to be a new breed of players. it's hard to find a reasonable comp in the past. Granderson .. Sizemore.. these guys are going to whiff, but they're also going to get on base hit for power and steal.

Anyone have a good idea ? finding a good comp for that type of hitter in the past?

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great post

first let me say i really enjoyed reading your post. it was well organized and very knowledgeable. as for a comp for bj upton currently, one guy that comes to mine with good speed, power, high k's, draws walks is bobby bonds. anyway hope this helps!

by bk11 on Jan 24, 2008 6:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bobby Bonds is a great comp

Upton is extremely unlikely to hit a consistent .300 with his current skillset/approach, but if he settles into the .270 range with a .360-.370 OBP and his power, he'll be a top-flight centerfielder for years.

by patsfan on Jan 24, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

exellent comp.........

by RollingWave on Jan 24, 2008 7:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

bossman junior...

...equals superstar.

Tampa Bay is going to be so frickin good by 2009 with less than a 1/4 of the payroll of nyy/bos.

by tuna411 on Jan 24, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

10 straight years of top 5 picks can do that for you.

by nyy601 on Jan 24, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OP

Let me just start this out by saying I like Cano ALOT. Off the top of my head, I may only like Utley more at 2B. But you sure do wax poetic and gush about Cano and ignore any weaknesses. Devil's advocate: Sure he's right up in the vicinity of Carew, Baerga and Morgan at the same age. But doesn't your link suggest so was Jim Lefebvre and Jorge Orta were as well? Cano also doesn't walk at anywhere near the rates Alomar and Morgan did. They were more complete hitters.

On the flip side with Upton you go out of your way to harp on Upton's flaws stating he whiffs alot 3 times in 2 paragraphs.

by McLovin on Jan 24, 2008 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree that.

I'm higher on Cano right now and probably went too far on harping him.

The issue here is that if we look at pure OPS rate Cano destroyes every post war guys, he's raw OPS is .835, there's not a single 2B since war world 2 that has a OPS over .800 at this stage . obviously the era context is a serious issue, but that still ... it's pretty special.

His walk rate is indeed the scariest part but he showed enough improvement last year to give confidence.

it's virtually impossible to be completely objective, yes i lean towards Cano perhaps too mcuh

by RollingWave on Jan 24, 2008 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh and

I still clearly realize that Upton is the better hitter, but we have to realize too that the offensive standard for 2Bs is only marginally higher than a catcher... (for the hall that is)

by RollingWave on Jan 24, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

upton

granderson is a bad comp. g-money is a fantastic player, but perhaps his most glaring weakness is his utter inability to hit lefties. bossman is a RHB and doesn't have that issue. g-money is also pretty cool because he hits so many triples; obviously BJ won't be doing that either. the only post-WWII right-handed batter to hit 20 triples was willie mays in 1957.

as an aside, that's why these comps involving a lefty to a righty are always a little weird. i vaguely remember somebody chastising me on this board for citing handedness as a relevant feature when drawing comparisons (i believe it was in the great ellsbury-damon comp threads of last year).

by jpahk on Jan 24, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Indeed apples n' oranges

It is a little strange comparing two very different, but obviously, very talented ballplayers. Not sure anyone can make a definitive case who is "better" just based on the fact that they two play two different positions and bat from opposite sides of the plate. Also, they have two very different approaches at the plate. Cano is a hacker who can put his bat on a ball anywhere from his eyes to his toes, whereas BJ has a far more patient approach but swings and misses a lot. The original poster also failed to mention that Cano has nearly two years (in age and experience) on Upton. I'd like to see BJ's numbers in a couple years after he fills out a little more. Remember, he played most of last year as a 22 year old. Cano was still in AAA as a 22 year old.

One other thing I'll say about BJ and his strikeout rate. He's always had that problem. Throughout the minors, his K rate was always high and yet he still managed to be bat nearly .300 in his minor league career. I think part of it stems from the fact that he simply takes a lot of pitches. When he does that, he often finds himself in 0-1 and 0-2 counts. It comes with the territory of being a patient hitter. Personally, I don't think it's a problem given the fact he walks so frequently. I may be in the minority, but I think he will continue to hit for high averages throughout his career. He just hits the ball too hard, too consistently not to (when he does make contact). A hitter who used to do that was Jim Rice (another guy who K'd a lot, especially early in his career). I think Upton's career path could be more similar to Rice's than Bonds'. But that's just me.

by dkny22 on Jan 24, 2008 11:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

correction

Cano was STARTED the year in AAA as a 22 year old and was called up to the majors a quarter into the season.

by dkny22 on Jan 24, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

his K rate was high in the minors

but it was never as high as it was in '07.....

2003 (A) - 17.7 % in 453 PA
2003 (AA) - 19.7% in 127 PA
2004 (AA) - 23.3% in 120 PA
2004 (AAA) - 23.0% in 313 PA
2004 (MLB) - 26.0% in 177 PA
2005 (AAA) - 20.1% in 632 PA
2006 (AAA) - 18.9% in 470 PA
2006 (MLB) - 21.2% in 189 PA
2007 (MLB) - 27.9% in 552 PA

i believe his K rate will decrease to the 19-22% range over the next year or two as he improves his game at the MLB level.....the result will be that his average will stay up in the .300-.310 range

by Wheelhouse on Jan 24, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is true...

...but an abnormal spike in his K rate (in what was essentially his rookie year) won't change my opinion of what Upton's eventual upside will be.

I'm with you in that I believe he will cut down on the K rate and settle in as a .300+ hitter. I think he'll always strikeout a lot, but when you consider everything else he brings to the table, it makes the Ks a lot easier to accept.

by dkny22 on Jan 24, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upton Comps

I'd rather have him than Cano, Granderson, or Sizemore. I don't really care if he doesn't "have" a position. In my opinion, he's already a better hitter than those three and has the potential to be a better base stealer than Sizemore or Granderson. He can hold his own at most positions if you need him to.

I would like to compare him most to Alex Rodriguez, but instead of 40-50 homers, more like 25-35 homers. Nothing to complain about, though.

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Jan 24, 2008 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

BOSSMAN

that was his first full season. he has confidence already, swagger even.

by daveh33 on Jan 24, 2008 3:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Zips projects him for 25.4 SWAGGER next season, though only 12.3 CONFIDENCE. Seems a little pessimistic to me, but still very good.

by patsfan on Jan 24, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah,

for comparison's sake, what's Cano's swagger at? if its anywhere near Upton, its only because he's on the Yanks. Remember that BOSSMAN plays for the Rays, so really that Swagger # is ridiculous

by daveh33 on Jan 24, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree

Looking at that list is equally shocking since there are only 3 other players in the top 25 with as few walks as Cano does, Heine Zimmerman, Juan Samuel and Ron Hunt. I'm guessing Cano's career path will follow those guys more than any random HOFer you can think of. Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 24, 2008 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well with Cano inconcern with the walks

or plate disipline is a tad bit misleading.

Last year, when he was struggling in the first half of the year, he was swinging at alot bad pitchers and pitchers were exploiting his lack patience at the plate.

Then all of a sudden in the second half of the season his patience improve and then he took off like crazy and became the yankees best hitter not name Posada or A-Rod.

So while his plate disipline was and still is an issue, he did improve very well with that aspect of his game last year in the second half.

by NYYLover1000 on Jan 24, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The best comp...

to me for BJ is Eric Davis. Bj has the same body, same speed, same arm, same power, same everything. He even has the same and only weakness (k's). In two years he will be a forty forty guy. He hasn't even filled out and he's hitting 430 ft. Homeruns.
As for the debate of Cano vs. BJ, yes, apples and oranges. As hitters, I'll take Upton with his huge OPS potential and speed that runs circles around Cano.

by butkussayers on Jan 24, 2008 5:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs