75K for a better grade...
A post by deltabourne in an earlier thread was meant to be an insult, but it got me thinking. What is there to stop the Yankees (used as an example, please substitute your least favorite big spender) from paying the most well known prospect graders/list makers to upgrade their prospects? I would think the Yankees (ex.) would gladly pay 250k/year divided by the top 5 graders to bump their guys up 10-15 slots on lists. I know GM's rely on scouts and other info when making trades, but honestly, the general masses is what allows them to keep their kickass jobs. If the general masses see Joba, or Hughes, or Kennedy, or Horne, or Tabata, or Jackson, etc ranked highly, than the GM gets praised when they give up their solid veteran for him. If those guys aren't ranked on any of the top 50 or 100 lists, the masses assume they got nothing in return.
Makes sense to me and if I'm Cashman, I'm calling Mr. Sickels tomorrow.
Please don't make fun of me if I'm missing something (besides integrity, which I am convinced can be bought).
Spanks in advance.
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40 comments
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journalistic ethics and baseball rules stop them?
by larry on Jan 2, 2008 11:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing
Diehards...like the ones on this website, are few and far between. Basically, they don't count.
Also, ethics=integrity pretty much and I'm here to tell you that it can almost always be bought. If you are ever in a position to sell your idea of 'ethics' you and your family will be better off in the long run....assuming you sell high, of course. :)
by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm sure it can be bought
i don't read papers from around the country but, here in chicago, it's rather unlikely anyone would write any such thing. they write in general terms like "highly rated by scouts/the organization." i question whether most of the writers here would even know who john sickels, or whoever you'd put in that five, are - let alone cite them.
by larry on Jan 2, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and what baseball rules would stop them?
by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
the journalist who accepted the money would quite literally be run out of the business. his opinions would obviously be worth nothing from thereon out, and i'm sure his employer, if he had any, would fire him immediately.
the baseball team who did it would suffer huge public backlash for these tactics, if not actual sanctions as a result.
and the gain in doing so would be miniscule, if even existent.
i appreciate an attempt to come up with a good corruption scheme, but i'm not sure if the economics of this one would pay off for any party.
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 2, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK,
There aren't that many of these type of journalists out there. I doubt that if a team is paying off the top 5 that the rest would be able to run them out of the business.
You get the top 5 guys rating Tabata at #20 instead of #40 and the rest of the field looks like idiots, not the top 5. At least amongst the masses.
I think the return would be significant. Tabata jumps to #20, Lowrie falls to #80 and I swear GM's would pay attention to that.
And lastly, I also love a good conspiracy theory.
by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
Jose Tabata going from #40 to #20 doesn't make that big news for most sports fans. the idea of the Yankees corruptly bribing "impartial" analysts makes front-page news on every sports publication and blog across the country. THAT'S a story everybody wants to read about, even if they don't know the first thing about prospects.
meanwhile, i really don't think the change in Tabata's ranking is going to change that much of anything. GM's trust their own evaluations more than BA's or John's. no doubt it will SLIGHTLY influence their opinions, but enough to justify the potential front-page headlines the story would make? seems to me that there are better risks out there. and, as far as the mere ranking alone justifying the trade -- that other teams will be more willing to trade for Tabata even if the ranking is bogus, simply because the higher ranking makes the trade a better move to sell to the fans -- there aren't enough fans who know enough about prospects for such subtle changes to make a discernable impact.
really, it comes down to how likely you think it is that such a story would be outed. to me, it's hard for me to imagine that they could offer: 1) enough of a package to make it worthwhile for John, et al, to risk their entire likelihood, but 2) not too much that the abnormal payment would stick out like a sore thumb.
beyond that, the scheme wouldn't work for very long -- if anything got too extreme, people would discount Yankees, etc, prospects ranked by these analysts, even if they DIDN'T suspect foul play. there's only so many times an analyst can egregiously miss.
finally, it would be very, very difficult to get BA in particular to buy into this scheme. they're a longstanding publication, not some individual. who's going to sign off on the package? and how's it worthwhile to the corporation that holds such a prominent role in the industry?
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 3, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"likelihood" equals...
also, i think i'm still underselling how bad this would be for the teams too, not just the journalist who loses his entire career. i think bad press and future bad will with GMs in trades is just the beginning of their problems.
i'm pretty positive this would receive stiff penalties from the commissioners office, if not actual legal trouble. from a criminal standpoint, this is almost certainly a conspiracy to defraud. furthermore, because it can be argued that readers rely on BA, etc, to be an impartial evaluator, this would violate commercial bribery statutes. (actually, the only way it WOULDN'T violate those statutes is if people DIDN'T rely on BA's rankings -- which would make your entire scheme useless.)
from the civil angle, any contracts involving players whose rankings were manipulated would be voidable by the other team, whether or not the change in rankings was material to the decision or not, since the contract fraud was intentional. beyond this, its possible that BA would be guilty of tortious interference.
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 3, 2008 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hey bleedjaxblue
by z4 landshark on Jan 3, 2008 2:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sure....
if you need another way of contacting me, let me know, or else post your email, and i'll email you.
sorry about the paranoia. but i'd be more than happy to talk or meet with you any time. i live in Palo Alto along with going here, so i'm around whenever (though undergraduate housing is still closed, right?)
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 3, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hey
by z4 landshark on Jan 3, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Longtime bud and nextdoor neighbor
by mroak89 on Jan 3, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All it woudl take it one person to decline
by Fett42 on Jan 2, 2008 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What would the results be?
Also, Deny till you die, brother!!!
by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you really think?
by Dfarth on Jan 2, 2008 11:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The general masses do...
by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
actually
by kaisertown on Jan 3, 2008 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly,
by rothe on Jan 3, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But....
"Oh, so the guy we got was the 20th best prospect according to [insert name]." The difference between 20 and 40 in their minds is not gonna be a huge difference.
So, you're not going to really influence the masses with this (because they don't really care), the GM's rely on scouts, and the analysts wouldn't risk it.
by omambiyick on Jan 3, 2008 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Owners hire and fire GMs. But I will grant you that fans and owners alike notice when the GM is doing a good or bad job. So it may appear as if a GM is being fired because the fans are unhappy with his performance. But the GM is probably getting canned because the owner isn't satisfied with the job the GM has done (probably for the same reasons the fans don't like him). That isn't the point though, what matters are actual results that all fans can see. Do you actually think that the happiness of fans hinges on the grades and lists that John and BA put out? I guess I just don't see how publications giving better grades to prospects changes anything.
by kaisertown on Jan 3, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because Capitalism works
However, If BA/BP/John/whomever started taking bribes, it would obviously get out (or else how would they solicit bribes?)
When this occurred, the entire value of BA/BP/John's ratings would disappear since it would be known that they aren't impartial.
by Galt on Jan 2, 2008 11:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why would it obviously get out?
by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
dude
by jpahk on Jan 2, 2008 11:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
1st Diary
Also, It would work. I'm fairly convinced that I could make it work as a GM. And, I'm betting (as long as you give me odds) that it goes on now to some extent.
by rothe on Jan 3, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alright I'll give you 10:1 odds
by Fett42 on Jan 3, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree.
1. Go find your average fan, and ask them if they like Jay Bruce. Heck, ask them to name anyone who you'd consider to be a top 50 prospect. For an average fan, that difference in prospect ranking isn't going to do anything for their opinion.
I think one of the great talents for a GM to have is the knowledge that the average fan is ridiculously stupid.
by omambiyick on Jan 3, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
$250,000 can get you
by dougdirt on Jan 3, 2008 12:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hello mr boras, who should i tout today?
This would be the next great Boras conspiracy!!!
by laxtonto on Jan 3, 2008 12:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Also, I would love to hear any anonymous scouts offer up an rumor of this type of thing going on. It seems to me it would at least be good business to offer up a free hot dog or minor league seat upgrade or something.
by elricsi on Jan 3, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
problem with your analysis
by SLK on Jan 3, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
who would belive them?
What would keep a collusion on say a scout, and agent and an analyst from raising a kids value and everyone getting a kickback from it. That and add to it the increased reputation for the scout and agent. The kid isnt going to say anything because he got paid. The weak link is the analyst and he can just claim ohh well prospects sometimes dont pan out.
To offset the monetary side of things, the agent can always give the analyst first dibs on specific signings and what not making him and industry insider. No money changes hands between the agents and analyst only an increase in prestige and if the anlyst uses the info right an increase in pay for being well connected.
The scout and agent get he kick back from the contract and everyone is happy
by laxtonto on Jan 4, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why this idea is flawed
So a team could theoretically bribe one guy, and he could raise rankings for that team. But the more prospect hounds you'd try to bribe ... you'd see it just doesn't work.
In addition, not everyone is as ethically lax as you are.
by Flynn Blake on Jan 3, 2008 2:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
And...
I think this theory could actually work (and maybe does) in the stock market where a few analysts could upgrade a stock and have it's value rise at least in the short term.
by Shep on Jan 3, 2008 8:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hm
Every prospect they have is now tainted. Every. One.
by BlueEyesAustin on Jan 3, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
why not go for it all
by laxtonto on Jan 3, 2008 11:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Importance of Prospect Rankings
by Fabian on Jan 3, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The average fan...
As an A's fan, I have heard many average A's fans say that the A's just threw away Danny Haren and Nick Swisher for players that haven't even been in the majors.
The average fan isn't impressed with potential. They are impressed with results.
by Zabat on Jan 6, 2008 12:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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