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75K for a better grade...

A post by deltabourne in an earlier thread was meant to be an insult, but it got me thinking.  What is there to stop the Yankees (used as an example, please substitute your least favorite big spender) from paying the most well known prospect graders/list makers to upgrade their prospects?  I would think the Yankees (ex.) would gladly pay 250k/year divided by the top 5 graders to bump their guys up 10-15 slots on lists.  I know GM's rely on scouts and other info when making trades, but honestly, the general masses is what allows them to keep their kickass jobs.  If the general masses see Joba, or Hughes, or Kennedy, or Horne, or Tabata, or Jackson, etc ranked highly, than the GM gets praised when they give up their solid veteran for him.  If those guys aren't ranked on any of the top 50 or 100 lists, the masses assume they got nothing in return.

Makes sense to me and if I'm Cashman, I'm calling Mr. Sickels tomorrow.

Please don't make fun of me if I'm missing something (besides integrity, which I am convinced can be bought).

Spanks in advance.

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journalistic ethics and baseball rules stop them?
at any rate, i'm not sure that the "general masses" have much awareness of their team's prospects or the rankings of them. and there would be a pretty large segment of the diehard fans who are aware of them who would know that such rankings were BS.

by larry on Jan 2, 2008 11:14 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm guessing
that every time the Pirates, or Marlins or whoever trades a guy, some writer for the local paper says they got blahblahblah, the # 14 prospect in baseball according to blahblahblah.

Diehards...like the ones on this website, are few and far between.  Basically, they don't count.

Also, ethics=integrity pretty much and I'm here to tell you that it can almost always be bought.  If you are ever in a position to sell your idea of 'ethics' you and your family will be better off in the long run....assuming you sell high, of course. :)

by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm sure it can be bought
but, as pointed out, if it gets out the guy/gal who took the bribe is completely fucked. career over. and, obviously, it would get out if it was at the scale you're proposing. baseball teams bribing journalists? we'd never hear the end of it.

i don't read papers from around the country but, here in chicago, it's rather unlikely anyone would write any such thing. they write in general terms like "highly rated by scouts/the organization." i question whether most of the writers here would even know who john sickels, or whoever you'd put in that five, are - let alone cite them.

by larry on Jan 2, 2008 11:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, and what baseball rules would stop them?
"Here are your season tickets Mr. X.  Oh, and if you don't want them, one of our assistants will sell them for you.  I'm guessing you will get about 75k for them..."

by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1
not worth it for anyone involved.

the journalist who accepted the money would quite literally be run out of the business. his opinions would obviously be worth nothing from thereon out, and i'm sure his employer, if he had any, would fire him immediately.

the baseball team who did it would suffer huge public backlash for these tactics, if not actual sanctions as a result.

and the gain in doing so would be miniscule, if even existent.

i appreciate an attempt to come up with a good corruption scheme, but i'm not sure if the economics of this one would pay off for any party.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 2, 2008 11:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK,
Take Johns Lowrie rating for example (I AM NOT ACCUSING), Red Sox have Pedroia at 2B and Lowrie probably can't play short.  "Hey John, here's a 10 game package of green monster seats for 4.  They sell for about $200 a pop.  Lowrie is really good and I'd love it if the Twins would take him in a package!!!"  John then bumps him from B to A-.  red Sox come back and give John the seats again next year.  John leaves him at B+ and he gets nothing for the '09 season.

There aren't that many of these type of journalists out there.  I doubt that if a team is paying off the top 5 that the rest would be able to run them out of the business.

You get the top 5 guys rating Tabata at #20 instead of #40 and the rest of the field looks like idiots, not the top 5.  At least amongst the masses.

I think the return would be significant.  Tabata jumps to #20, Lowrie falls to #80 and I swear GM's would pay attention to that.

And lastly,  I also love a good conspiracy theory.

by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK...
but there's another type of journalist out there: the type who loves UNCOVERING a good conspiracy theory. and the second they find out that John's on payroll (or receiving some kind of shady benefit), they're going to turn that into a news article.

Jose Tabata going from #40 to #20 doesn't make that big news for most sports fans. the idea of the Yankees corruptly bribing "impartial" analysts makes front-page news on every sports publication and blog across the country. THAT'S a story everybody wants to read about, even if they don't know the first thing about prospects.

meanwhile, i really don't think the change in Tabata's ranking is going to change that much of anything. GM's trust their own evaluations more than BA's or John's. no doubt it will SLIGHTLY influence their opinions, but enough to justify the potential front-page headlines the story would make? seems to me that there are better risks out there. and, as far as the mere ranking alone justifying the trade -- that other teams will be more willing to trade for Tabata even if the ranking is bogus, simply because the higher ranking makes the trade a better move to sell to the fans -- there aren't enough fans who know enough about prospects for such subtle changes to make a discernable impact.

really, it comes down to how likely you think it is that such a story would be outed. to me, it's hard for me to imagine that they could offer: 1) enough of a package to make it worthwhile for John, et al, to risk their entire likelihood, but 2) not too much that the abnormal payment would stick out like a sore thumb.

beyond that, the scheme wouldn't work for very long -- if anything got too extreme, people would discount Yankees, etc, prospects ranked by these analysts, even if they DIDN'T suspect foul play. there's only so many times an analyst can egregiously miss.

finally, it would be very, very difficult to get BA in particular to buy into this scheme. they're a longstanding publication, not some individual. who's going to sign off on the package? and how's it worthwhile to the corporation that holds such a prominent role in the industry?

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 3, 2008 12:02 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"likelihood" equals...
...."livelihood." my bad.

also, i think i'm still underselling how bad this would be for the teams too, not just the journalist who loses his entire career. i think bad press and future bad will with GMs in trades is just the beginning of their problems.

i'm pretty positive this would receive stiff penalties from the commissioners office, if not actual legal trouble. from a criminal standpoint, this is almost certainly a conspiracy to defraud. furthermore, because it can be argued that readers rely on BA, etc, to be an impartial evaluator, this would violate commercial bribery statutes. (actually, the only way it WOULDN'T violate those statutes is if people DIDN'T rely on BA's rankings -- which would make your entire scheme useless.)

from the civil angle, any contracts involving players whose rankings were manipulated would be voidable by the other team, whether or not the change in rankings was material to the decision or not, since the contract fraud was intentional. beyond this, its possible that BA would be guilty of tortious interference.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 3, 2008 12:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hey bleedjaxblue
in a previous thread (about a month or two ago) i mentioned that i was a stanford undergrad. i know you are an alumni and are back here. i am just wondering how i could get into contact with you to talk about some stuff. let me know. i really appreciate it.
LiNcEcuM and cAiN R STUDS

by z4 landshark on Jan 3, 2008 2:03 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sure....
i'm a little paranoid about posting personal information on the internet, though, so do you mind if i give you my back-up AIM account? it's piazza91million.

if you need another way of contacting me, let me know, or else post your email, and i'll email you.

sorry about the paranoia. but i'd be more than happy to talk or meet with you any time. i live in Palo Alto along with going here, so i'm around whenever (though undergraduate housing is still closed, right?)

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 3, 2008 2:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hey
ya i will just contact you on aim sometime. yes undergraduate housing is still closed right now. it doesnt open up till sunday when students start going back to school
LiNcEcuM and cAiN R STUDS

by z4 landshark on Jan 3, 2008 2:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Longtime bud and nextdoor neighbor
goes to Stanford. Visited there this summer, Gorgeous campus, gorgeous school. And there's an awesome chinese food restaurant right off the campus. Not sure where I'm going with this, but hurray!

by mroak89 on Jan 3, 2008 4:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

All it woudl take it one person to decline
And it would all be blown open with likely very poor results for the team.

by Fett42 on Jan 2, 2008 11:23 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What would the results be?
How poor could they be?

Also, Deny till you die, brother!!!

by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you really think?
That teams rely on Baseball America to tell them about prospects.  That's why they have scouting departments...

by Dfarth on Jan 2, 2008 11:34 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The general masses do...
and for most of the GM's in baseball, that is who determines if they keep their job or not.

by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

actually
owners and other executives (also hired by the owner) decide the fate of their general manager, not the fans.  And owners care about wins, losses and ticket/merchandise sales, not where BA ranks prospects.

by kaisertown on Jan 3, 2008 12:00 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly,
Owners care about tickets/revenue...or keeping fans happy.  You think every GM/managerial change is due to them not doing as good a job as possible or is it cause fans are unhappy with the current results??  Come on now....

by rothe on Jan 3, 2008 12:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But....
how many average fans out there care about prospects?  Not that many.

"Oh, so the guy we got was the 20th best prospect according to [insert name]."  The difference between 20 and 40 in their minds is not gonna be a huge difference.

So, you're not going to really influence the masses with this (because they don't really care), the GM's rely on scouts, and the analysts wouldn't risk it.

by omambiyick on Jan 3, 2008 12:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh?
Not sure how that supported your point.

Owners hire and fire GMs.  But I will grant you that fans and owners alike notice when the GM is doing a good or bad job.  So it may appear as if a GM is being fired because the fans are unhappy with his performance.  But the GM is probably getting canned because the owner isn't satisfied with the job the GM has done (probably for the same reasons the fans don't like him).  That isn't the point though, what matters are actual results that all fans can see.  Do you actually think that the happiness of fans hinges on the grades and lists that John and BA put out?  I guess I just don't see how publications giving better grades to prospects changes anything.

by kaisertown on Jan 3, 2008 12:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1...
These teams don't buy fantasy baseball annuals to decide what FA to go after, or what trade to make.

by beastball on Jan 3, 2008 8:58 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Because Capitalism works
The suggested goal is that the Yankees or Red Sox could bribe prospect rating organizations, which would make other teams overvalue the Yankee/Sox prospects so the Yankees/Sox could get better players in trades from other teams.

However, If BA/BP/John/whomever started taking bribes, it would obviously get out (or else how would they solicit bribes?)

When this occurred, the entire value of BA/BP/John's ratings would disappear since it would be known that they aren't impartial.

by Galt on Jan 2, 2008 11:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why would it obviously get out?
You don't think that Goldstein, Sickels, and Callis could keep an extra 100k/year between themselves??

by rothe on Jan 2, 2008 11:48 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no
and neither could a baseball team.

by larry on Jan 2, 2008 11:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dude
a cute idea, but stop defending it. literally everybody else thinks it wouldn't work. and--why exactly are you so invested in it?

by jpahk on Jan 2, 2008 11:55 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1st Diary
I think, so I thought I'd stick around and answer some rebuttals.  Don't worry, I'm going to bed now.

Also,  It would work.  I'm fairly convinced that I could make it work as a GM.  And, I'm betting (as long as you give me odds) that it goes on now to some extent.

by rothe on Jan 3, 2008 12:01 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Disagree.
If you were a GM, sure, it's possible for you to pay someone that money to increase the rankings of your prospects.  But, it'd be a complete waste of money.

1. Go find your average fan, and ask them if they like Jay Bruce. Heck, ask them to name anyone who you'd consider to be a top 50 prospect.  For an average fan, that difference in prospect ranking isn't going to do anything for their opinion.

I think one of the great talents for a GM to have is the knowledge that the average fan is ridiculously stupid.

by omambiyick on Jan 3, 2008 12:56 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

$250,000 can get you
an international free agent worth talking about. I think GM's would be much more worried about spending that kind of change on that than this.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 3, 2008 12:17 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hello mr boras, who should i tout today?
Think how useful this idea would be for agents instead. Try boosting the realative value of a unknown commodity like a LA kid or a Pacific Rim prospect. The ability to influence the media would make it very likely that it would increase the posting or signing bonuses.

This would be the next great Boras conspiracy!!!

Batting practice tomorrow you be there....I have Pop, everyday

by laxtonto on Jan 3, 2008 12:27 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1
This part might work.  Agents are perceived as scumbags anyway, so it would hardly dent their reputation.  Also, players might actually like it that the dude would go to lengths like that to promote them.  Again, I think the value of the bribe would be much smaller, like free tickets or 1k.

Also, I would love to hear any anonymous scouts offer up an rumor of this type of thing going on.  It seems to me it would at least be good business to offer up a free hot dog or minor league seat upgrade or something.

by elricsi on Jan 3, 2008 12:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

problem with your analysis
most of these analysts probably get free seats anyway to minor league games (considered as part of the media) - certainly BA and BP do while working (and probably to major league games as well).... and I know agents are provided free seats...

by SLK on Jan 3, 2008 1:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

who would belive them?
If somebody was brbing LA scouts or Pacific Rim scouts and one tried to rat out another who would believe them?? There are way to many guys that just scour the globe for the next big thing.

What would keep a collusion on say a scout, and agent and an analyst from raising a kids value and everyone getting a kickback from it. That and add to it the increased reputation for the scout and agent. The kid isnt going to say anything because he got paid. The weak link is the analyst and  he can just claim ohh well prospects sometimes dont pan out.

 To offset the monetary side of things, the agent can always give the analyst first dibs on specific signings and what not making him and industry insider. No money changes hands between the agents and analyst only an increase in prestige and if the anlyst uses the info right an increase in pay for being well connected.

The scout and agent get he kick back from the contract and everyone is happy

Batting practice tomorrow you be there....I have Pop, everyday

by laxtonto on Jan 4, 2008 12:19 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why this idea is flawed
You obviously haven't spent much time in the real world of mass media, office politics or even just everyday relationships, rothe, or you'd understand that the chance of a secret getting out increases exponentially with the number of people who know about it.

So a team could theoretically bribe one guy, and he could raise rankings for that team. But the more prospect hounds you'd try to bribe ... you'd see it just doesn't work.

In addition, not everyone is as ethically lax as you are.

by Flynn Blake on Jan 3, 2008 2:30 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And...
As much as I, a baseball fan of the non-GM variety, rely on Sickles, Goldstein, BA, BP etal, I still feel the desire to see the player with my own eyes (for whatever that's worth) and would love to know what a real GM thinks about him.

I think this theory could actually work (and maybe does) in the stock market where a few analysts could upgrade a stock and have it's value rise at least in the short term.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 3, 2008 8:19 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hm
Yankees do this. It gets out.

Every prospect they have is now tainted.  Every. One.

by BlueEyesAustin on Jan 3, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why not go for it all
Now the ability to bribe the Elias Sports Bureau would makea profound impact......
Batting practice tomorrow you be there....I have Pop, everyday

by laxtonto on Jan 3, 2008 11:42 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Importance of Prospect Rankings
While I don't think any front office would engage in just because of how monumentally stupid they would look if (re: when) this comes out, I do want to point out that people are downplaying how important the rankings of guys like Goldstein, Sickels, and BA are. While teams have a fairly good grasp of what their guys are doing, they do, to an extent, rely on the work of these outside sources to give them bits and pieces on players they may not be as familiar. In addition, they also love to keep track of how their guys are being rated.
...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 3, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The average fan...
does not get excited to hear that their team has picked up prospect (no matter how highly touted) for their veterans.

As an A's fan, I have heard many average A's fans say that the A's just threw away Danny Haren and Nick Swisher for players that haven't even been in the majors.

The average fan isn't impressed with potential. They are impressed with results.

by Zabat on Jan 6, 2008 12:24 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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