Jim Callis projects the top 5 picks

by fewgoodcards on Jan 19, 2008 12:56 PM EST

in this week's ask BA, Jim Callis gives a very early projection of the top 5 picks in the draft. in a bit of a shocker, he has tim beckham and not pedro alvarez going first overall. obviously i think the pirates would be thrilled to add a talent like alvarez that could help out in a hurry, but would they be able to sign him?

1. Tampa Bay Rays. For a team that never has won more than 70 games in a season, the Rays don't have as many glaring long-term needs as you might think, because they've done a good job with most of their premium draft picks and have the game's best farm system. That said, teams picking at the top of the draft rarely base their picks on need. Tampa Bay is going to take whoever it deems is the best player available, unless the asking price is really out of whack.
The Rays have a lot of quality pitching coming through their pipeline, but teams always want more and they could opt for one of the top college arms, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they'll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they'll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors.
Projected Pick: Tim Beckham, ss, Griffin (Ga.) HS.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates. If the Rays don't take Alvarez, he becomes the easy pick for the Pirates. Pittsburgh needs to send a message to its victory-starved fans that it's going to take the best player available instead of going cheap. Choosing Daniel Moskos over Matt Wieters last year was a debacle.
Projected Pick: Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Vanderbilt.

3. Kansas City Royals. The Royals have beefed up their offense by taking Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas with first-round picks in three of the last four drafts, and most of the top bats after Alvarez are first basemen: South Carolina's Justin Smoak, Miami's Yonder Alonso and Florida prepster Eric Hosmer. That would make homestate product Crow very attractive. Matusz and Missouri high school righthander Tim Melville would be two other pitching options.
Projected Pick: Aaron Crow, rhp, Missouri.

4. Baltimore Orioles. With former first-rounders Brandon Snyder and Bill Rowell looking like they might be destined for first base rather than catcher and third base, it's hard to envision the Orioles going for Smoak, Alonso or Hosmer. They'll likely take whichever remaining pitcher they like the most from among Matusz, Melville and Pepperdine righthander Brett Hunter.
Projected Pick: Brian Matusz, lhp, San Diego.

5. San Francisco Giants. The Giants need a lot more help for their lineup than they do for their rotation, so the college hitters will be attractive. Smoak or Alonso could help the big league club in short order, and possibly form an infield of the future with Nick Noonan, Charlie Culberson and Angel Villalona. Hosmer or Miami prep third baseman Harold Martinez also could be tempting.
Projected Pick: Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina.

seems like the same top guys everyone mentions. anybody want to give a guess on how they think the rest of the top 10 or maybe the top 15 will play out?

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Comments

Is Beckham the next Matt Bush?

by Bravesin07 on Jan 19, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions

beckham

for his sake, i hope not. i have heard people compare him to justin jackson though, so there definitely are some people questioning his bat, but he is ranked higher than either bush or jackson were at this point in their careers.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 19, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

Yes...

...all high school shortstops selected with the first pick are exactly like Matt Bush. How can you even question that? The ONLY possible outcome for Tim Beckham's career if he is picked 1-1 is that he morphs in to Matt Bush.

Pret-ty, pret-ty, pret-ty good.

by uga007 on Jan 19, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

2002

i guess, in retrospect then, the Bucs don't have to feel so bad about Bryan Bullington

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 19, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

bush comparison

i don't think the question is that far out. some scouts have questioned beckham's bat in the past. people seem to forget that bush was considered a top 10 talent and had a lot of tools.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 19, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Any chance Pedro Alvarez Falls to #4?

Seems possible, given the budget constraints of the top 3 teams.

by dkdc on Jan 19, 2008 1:34 PM EST reply actions

No

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 19, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Given on...

...that Rays spent good amount money on Price, I think they'll go for Alvarez

by shakezula on Jan 19, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Re

Neither the Rays nor the Royals have let money become an issue in the last few drafts...

by Dfarth on Jan 19, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Wieters

If that's true, how did the best player in the draft drop to #5 last year?

by dkdc on Jan 19, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

wieters

we will see how it ends up, but i don't think anyone considered wieters the best player in the draft.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 19, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

No...

...but I don't think there was much doubt he was the best college hitter in the draft.

For some, hitter = player, while pitcher = slightly more important than bench coach. I won't mock the philosophical differences between the conceptions of college vs. high school, because neither argument is really invalid.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 20, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

best college hitter

i won't argue with you there, he was the best college hitter, but i think there was a pretty good concensus that price was #1 and porcello was #2. after that, i think there was still a majority that considered moustakas the best bat in the draft.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 20, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

well...

It really comes down to preference of team. Some prospectors like Callis thought Moustakas was the best hitter in the draft (and has him #6 already!). Look, they barely got Moustakas signed anyways, it's not like KC was going cheap here. There was a report in the KC Star the night before the draft that they were down to four plays -- Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Jarrod Parker, and Devin Mesoraco. They could have easily gone cheap and selected one the latter two, or even a hometown guy like Ross Detwiler. They got the guy they wanted, even if may not have been the consensus opinion.

Then...the Cubs. From what I remember, they had a hard on for Vitters. They got him.

Now the Pirates, yea they're pick was questionable. I was shocked when I heard Selig announce his Moskos as the selection. I don't really follow the Pirates, but it seems like they don't spend a lot when it comes to the draft, so perhaps they were going cheap in this case.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions

Callis is crazy

I love going back and reading the draft information from Hardball Times. They said Moustakas will not hit for lighttower power because his swing isn't made for that. I bet Moustakas will not hit more than 30 HR's at best, they said the same about Vitters. That could be the reason why John liked Heyward the most in last year's draft because Vitters and Moustakas will hyped up big time.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 20, 2008 8:03 AM EST up reply actions

huh?

You like it because it supports your opinion? Didn't you compare Moustakas to Miguel Cabrera a while back? I like Gomez (the writer), but I don't use his opinion as fact.

I love Callis, always have, and was shocked when he had Moose as high as he did. John Manuel backed his opinion and also said Moose was the best hitter in the draft.

Now maybe Heyward will be really, really good. But at this point, he's behind Moose for sure.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

I could be wrong

but I thought he was being ironic, saying he liked reading Hardball Times because of how absurd their comments were

by OldProspects on Jan 20, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

What?

Light tower power means hitting huge bombs, not something that is required for putting up good HR numbers. Moustakas could also change his swing and improve, he's a teenager going into his first full pro season. As for Vitters, Gomez didn't say the same thing about him, he said he's like a righty Moustakas in that he gets extended too quickly, although I think the swing he uses as an example is kind of extreme. Gomez said Vitters has better bat speed and more power potential. Vitters could also improve his swing, as Justin Upton had a similar problem with his swing and he's done fine. As for Heyward, did you not read what was said about him? "He will also need to develop "lift," as his swing is more of a "batting average" swing right now." and Gomez said he tends to spin on his back leg, taking away some of his power. Oh no, a prep draft pick isn't a finished product yet!

by Brett Keith on Jan 20, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

Best player in the draft??

I think both TB and KC would argue with your conclusion that Wieters was the best player available in the draft. TB took the consensus #1 talent, and KC took who they felt was #2. It's not like either team went cheap.

by guru4u on Jan 20, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

Rays

Spent $5.6M. Do you really think they wouldn't have given out $400,000 more if they thought Wieters was better?

by Dfarth on Jan 20, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

I have this nightmare...

given the Giants long history of poor drafting of position players in the first round:

Press Release:

The Giants finally get their Vlad!

With the 5th pick of the 2008 First Year Player Draft the Giants selected Vladimir Schlobotnik, a high school senior from the School of the Arts High School in San Francisco. Apparently not heavily scouted by any team other than the Giants, Schlobotnik, a shortstop, hit .296 with 6 HR and 24 SB as a senior, a somewhat disappointing year after he posted a stat line of .312, 9 HR, and 21 SB as a junior.

"Despite his off year as a senior we think he has a huge upside. The School of the Arts is a magnet school for students interested in the performing arts. Vlad's emphasis was in ballet so he has a terrific amount of agility and athleticism and fits in perfectly with our new organizational emphasis on speed and defense," announced Giants GM Brian Sabean.

The selection of Schlobotnik was not without controversy. When a reporter questioned why the Giants passed on South Carolina star first baseman Justin Smoak and whether this was a "signability" pick, Sabean bristled, responding tersely, "We have an entire minor league system to restock. We cannot do that by surrounding one star with marginal prospects. We have to spread our finances around wisely."

At the announcement of the Schlobotnik pick, a stifled but clearly audible "whoop" was heard coming from the direction of the Florida Marlins table. They quickly selected Smoak with the 6th pick, not bothering to use any of the allowed caucus time between picks to consider their options.

Schlobotnik, who was with his parents in Paris visiting prospective ballet troupes, is expected to turn down offers of a dancing career. "I'm a Giant now," he announced to reporters via cell phone.

by baseballjunkie on Jan 19, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions

That's Pretty Funny!

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 19, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

#5

I'd be ecstatic if the Giants picked Smoak or Alonso at #5, but I'll make a flat out prediction that if Matusz falls to #5 he's a Giant. I wouldn't put it past them to take Tim Melville if both Crow and Matusz are off the board.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 19, 2008 8:28 PM EST reply actions

melville

tim melville is a stud. he has the ideal pitcher's frame, very good stuff, and a smooth delivery. i am hoping he has a porcello type slide so that he makes it to the hometown cardinals, but i don't think it will happen.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 19, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions

Hermsen

A kid who I think could be available to the Giants in the supplemental round(if they don't re-sign Pedro Feliz), or even the second round is BJ Hermsen. I loved what I saw of him in the AFLAC game in San Diego. He looked a bit raw, but he's a real big kid(6'6", 230 lbs) who can really bring it. He reminded me of a slightly bigger version of Matt Cain.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 19, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

Hermsen

What did you like about him? What kind of pitches does he throw? I'm just now getting into the college and HS levels, and would appreciate any insight you have, thanks.

by killa on Jan 19, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

Hermsen

He just looks like a big farm kid. His body looks a lot like Matt Cain's, who I consider to have almost a perfect pitcher's body, except Hermsen is 3 inches taller. He threw mostly 4 seam fastballs up in the zone, but he was overpowering the AFLAC hitters. I think I remember he was clocking in the mid 90's and was overpowering them.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions

Hermsen Pic

http://www.w-delaware.k12.ia.us/staff_pages/pages/hs/mike_morrison/images/IMG_5809.JPG

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

Love the end of ask BA on Julio Teheran

The next King Felix I hope.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 19, 2008 8:55 PM EST reply actions

mock

it is extremely early and i think i will have done a pretty good job if i get one of these right, but here is my guess on the rest of the top 15

Marlins- Harold Martinez SS Braddock High School, FL
Reds- Tim Melville RHP Holt High School, MO
White Sox- Gerrit Cole RHP Orange Lutheran High School, CA
Nationals- Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage High School, FL
Astros- Jacob Thompson RHP Virginia
Rangers- Aaron Hicks CF Woodrow Wilson High School, CA
Athletics- Yonder Alonso 1B Miami (FL)
Cardinals- Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky
Twins- Kyle Shipworth C Patriot High School, CA
Dodgers- Isaac Galloway CF Los Osos High School, CA

by fewgoodcards on Jan 20, 2008 1:05 PM EST reply actions

Thompson

I would not be surprised at all if you were right about him. He just makes too much sense for the Astros right now, unless one of the better college arms slips. Assuming that doesn't happen, that pick looks very logical.

by astrosfan76 on Jan 20, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

astros

i think the thompson to the astros pick is the one that makes the most sense in the draft at this time. they have traded nearly every legit pitching prospect they had, and thompson is a guy that could absolutely fly through the minors.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 20, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

Looks good

Alonso seems like an A's guy and Friedrich seems like the kind of pitcher the Cards would target. His curveball is an absolute hammer.

by SBcaptain2 on Jan 20, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

friedrich

he does have a deadly curve, and i think it is the best curve in the draft. it wouldn't surprise me at all if the A's jumped on him b/c he seems so much like barry zito, but if alonso is available i think beane would have a tough time passing him up.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 20, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Dodger pick

There's almost zero chance that the Dodgers take a hitter. My early favorite for the Dodgers is LHP Jarret Martin out of Centennial HS in Bakersfield (CA).

by Thinkblue on Jan 20, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions

dodgers

i was thinking about going with a pitcher, but they have taken a lot of pitchers early in recent years and i thought they have to take a position player eventually. how about alex meyer the big righty from greensburg, indiana?

by fewgoodcards on Jan 20, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Response

I can understand that, but Logan White seems intent on taking a HS pitcher with his first pick every year. As CD mentioned, Martin fits the bill. And I really don't think White would take a position player simply to take a position player.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Galloway's and would be happy if the Dodgers took him. I just don't see it happening unless Martin has a catastrophic spring and there aren't any White-type HS pitchers on the board.

by Thinkblue on Jan 20, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

Alex Meyer

As for Alex Meyer, I think he could be off the board by the Dodgers' pick. He certainly has the stuff and projection to be a great prospect, but I have the feeling someone will take him before the Dodgers have a chance to. He's another guy who I'd be happy with.

by Thinkblue on Jan 20, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

Jarret Martin

Everything about Martin -- HS pitcher, southpaw, good fastball, breaking ball that is an out-pitch, great arm action, ideal pitcher's frame -- screams "Logan White First Rounder!" But I would PREFER Galloway, because after so many pitcher-heavy Dodger drafts, I think it would be a good idea to stock up on position players this year, and center field always seems to be a position White neglects.

by CanuckDodger on Jan 20, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

dodgers

my heart goes to Galloway but if White is still in charge, Martin seems more logical.

/sigh....please give us an elite 5 tool CF talent!

by npurcell on Jan 20, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

James Loney

Wasn't James Loney a Logan White first rounder?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

Loney was Logan White's first draft pick. Since then, he's taken a pitcher with his first pick every time.

by Thinkblue on Jan 20, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

Loney

That pick turned out pretty well. I would think he would take,in his opinion, the best player available regardless of position. He does seem to heavily favor HS players for his first rounders though. Overall, the Dodgers are still stronger in position prospects than pitchers, but that is starting to tilt the other way in their lower levels.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2008 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

pure technicality

Ivan DeJesus Jr. too!

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 20, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

Well...

He who shall not be named was selected prior to De Jesus Jr...

Who knows, Logan might pick a hitter just to switch things up.

by Thinkblue on Jan 20, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Hosmer

Excellent bat, but why would any team take a high school 1B that high when a college 1B like Brett Wallace is still out there.

by gunkdog on Jan 20, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

wallace

i think wallace is a great hitter, but he can't come close to hosmer in terms of power. its like who would you rather have, daric barton or prince fielder?

by fewgoodcards on Jan 21, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

Who is the

questionable signability/injury guy to fall to the Yankees this year?

http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/

by hallofamer2000 on Jan 20, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply actions

the ONLY guy

I could see falling so far is Eric Hosmer.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

but

I doubt the Tigers would pass on Hosmer.

by SBcaptain2 on Jan 20, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

IF he falls that far.

I don't see signability being as big this year since every first round pick got signed last year, even if it was last minute. Most of these kids DO want to sign, and in the end they do.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

re

I doubt he falls that far as well.

by SBcaptain2 on Jan 20, 2008 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

tim melville

i think boras could try and talk melville up as a porcello type and he could fall, or maybe he could end up like harvey where he thinks he is a lot better than he really is.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 20, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions