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Mining for C+ Gold

It seems that a few times a year a C+ prospect breaks out and has a good year (Mark Reynolds, Manny Parra, Steven Pearce, Asdrubal, Felipe Paulino) and rises in John's rankings.  It also seems to be the lowest grade where someone still has a chance to be a solid if not spectacular major league player (unless you're Wlad).

Did John grade someone low with a C+ that should be a B- on his list?  Did John overlook a hidden gem and throw him into the Pit of C+ Despair?

Is there someone that will get more playing time therefore making him more valuable than other C+ prospects?

Is there a particular meaty C+ pitching prospect you think might break out?  

Because there are so many C+ prospects, I've limited it to first-year players, but feel free to toss out the names of others.  I've also thrown in a couple of C+ from last year that had good stats in AAA or in a short MLB stint to see if anybody thinks they have a shot at breaking out.  

C+ BATS

  • Curtis Thigpen, Tor (is the dream over?)
  • Emilio Bonifacio, Ariz
  • Kory Casto, Wash (former B prospect)
  • Terry Evans, LAA
  • Sam Fuld, Cubs (great AFL; Stenson Award)
  • Ben Francisco, Cle (where's Indiansfan when you need him?)
  • Joe Koshansky, Col (Ryan Shealy: The Sequel?)
  • Justin Ruggiano, TB (fell from a B-)
  • Brandon Moss, Bos (settle down Red Sox fans)
  • Jake Fox, Fla (C+/C from John)
  • Tony Abreu, LAD (C+ last yr)
  • Ryan Raburn (C+ last yr) Anyone know more about this guy?
  • Martin Prado, Atl (C+ last yr)
  • C+ PITCHERS
  • Nick Blackburn, Min (BP 3 stars)
  • Aaron Laffey, Cle (Bottom Barrel 3 winner)
  • Yorman Bazardo, Detroit (BP 2 stars)
  • Lance Broadway, ChiSox (BP 2 stars)
  • Juan Gutierrez, Hou (no one knows anything)
  • JoJo Reyes, Atl (C+ last yr, poss. #5 SP in Atl)
  • Andy Sonnanstine, TB (C+ last yr, Rys #5)
  • Rick Vanden Hurk, Fla (C+ last yr, Marlins) The Dutchman
  • Jared Burton, Cin (C+, Rule 5, great #s)
  • Matt Chico, Wash (C+ last yr, 160+ IP in mlb)
  • Tyler Clippard, Wash, (B last year, bad this year) I'll throw him in here since I can't find many opinions of him from this year.
  •  

    Star-divide

    If any other C+ prospect you felt should have been higher, feel free to post and discuss.  Looking forward to the community's sleeper prospects.  Just looking for some hidden C+ gold.

    Comment 26 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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    Vanden Hurk
    If I had to pick one player that I thought would break out in the bigs this year, I'd go Vanden Hurk.  His numbers weren't great last year, but I think a little more experience will help him out.

    by killa on Jan 16, 2008 9:56 AM EST reply actions  

    Brandon Erbe
    High risk, high reward.  

    Even in an off year, his K-rate was very good in Hi-A as a teenager.

    by dkdc on Jan 16, 2008 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

    what went wrong with erbe?
    i assume his velocity is still there, so has his secondary pitches never developed? was he hurt last year?

    by Wheelhouse on Jan 16, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

    Supposedly
    The Orioles were forcing him to use his secondary stuff more, since he blew away the lower minors with just his fastball.

    I'm not sure if that's true or just revisionist history to explain his troubles, but the good news is that there were no injuries as far as I know.

    by dkdc on Jan 16, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

    David Purcey C+
    Has a great arm, has just been held back by injuries and command issues, had a great AFL where his command seemed to be improved, could end up contributing at the big league level with an injury or two.
    Dating Patsy's little sister!

    by Jdog @ Minor League Ball on Jan 16, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions  

    except...
    he was ranked as a C.....no hope for him, I guess.

    by ayjackson on Jan 16, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions  

    David Bromberg, Twins
    20 yr old, 9-0 in the Appy League last year with a 2.78 ERA and 81 K's in 58 IP.  

    by batman on Jan 16, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions  

    i'm confused...
    is the thread starter looking for C+ players whose breakout will get them a look at the MLB level?

    by ayjackson on Jan 16, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

    YES.
    More or less (more actually), but I figured we'd let everyone talk about whatever C+ they felt had a chance or was slighted.  Didn't know how big the thread would get.  

    by The Colonel on Jan 16, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

    I forgot some C+ RP prospects
    Richard Thompson       
    Kevin Hart
    Jose Ascanio
    Manny Acosta
    Ross Ohlendorf   
    Kevin Cameron
    Jon Albaladejo
    Billy Petrick   
    Lee Gronciewicz       
    Armando Galarraga   
    Jensen Lewis
    Marcus McBeth
    Dan Meyer
    Chase Wright   
    Blackley   
    J.A. Happ

    Any of these guys interesting for the future?

    by The Colonel on Jan 16, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions  

    Jesus Montero
    The kid has special power, and should not be a full grade lower than Villalona.  Especially if there is a chance he can stick at catcher.
    http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

    by lemonjello on Jan 16, 2008 11:18 AM EST reply actions  

    Laffey
    I think he's got a good chance to be a #4.  I think the biggest knock on him is the lack of K's, but he plays to his strength - his groundballs.  He had one spot "start" in the playoffs (he had to come on in relief for 4.2 innings), and was excellent.  If you look at his games, he improved from his first month to his second month.  If you can overlook the low K rate, I think you'll see a lower-ceiling Jake Westbrook.

    At the very least, he can be a #4 on a decent team.

    by lenred on Jan 16, 2008 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

    Javier Hererra
    tons of tools, but injuries. whats new w/ A's prospects. he was a fringe top 50-60 prospet, TJ surgery, then hamstring injuries. if he lived up to the hype, A's wouldnt have needed carlos gonzalez.

    this is make or break for him in 08

    by rayver723 on Jan 16, 2008 11:29 AM EST reply actions  

    Raburn

    This is the guy that collided with Jason Kubel in the AFL in 2004.  This resulted in Kubel's knee injury, and much heartache from this Twins fan.

    I hold no ill will toward Raburn, and hope he does well.  

    However, because of the accident, I won't pick him on my SIM team.

    by dbimberg on Jan 16, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions  

    Dan Meyer
    I feel he is going to get his chance this year with the A's rotation happening to be a free-for-all. The guy has the stuff and talent, and is now overlooked, so all he has to do is put it together and in Oakland's ballpark he will have all the opportunity in the world

    by dlpme77 on Jan 16, 2008 11:49 AM EST reply actions  

    i wasnt too impressed
    yes finally 88-92 mph velocity was back. he showed flashes on solid breaking stuff. maybe he was nervous after called up. since he's out of options, he'll make the team in some role. he had weird splits, good against righties, lefties hit him well. he'll have competition w/ braden/smith/eveland/saarloos/dinardo/windsor/komine.

    by rayver723 on Jan 16, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

    I can't say nerves
    but he did struggle, I agree. It was his first "real" shot in the majors, however and even elite pitchers struggle their first go around. I think the AAA numbers are a better indication though, especially in the PCL. I am not saying he is gonna be a star, but an average pitcher yes, which get better numbers because he is in Oakland. He is on the perfect team to get a shot, less maybe the Marlins for opportunity. I would not be surprised if given the opportunity he breaks even at 10-10 and has an ERA of just a little under or a little over 4.

    by dlpme77 on Jan 16, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

    Velocity-wise
    I think he was actually a bit better than you're giving him credit for. He was touching 94-95 when I saw him, mostly low 90s.

    The problem was command, not velocity. He kept leaving meatballs over the middle of the plate.

    by PaulThomas @ Minor League Ball on Jan 17, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

    Cool, thanks
    Yeah, this kind of insight is definitely what I'm looking for.  Who will get a shot at the majors and produce.  Even if it's just being a solid bullpen guy.

    by The Colonel on Jan 16, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

    Texas C+
    Well Johny Whittleman Julio Bourbon Brandon Boggs and Tommy Hunter all have a shot with Bourbon and hunter having an excellent chance to shoot through Texas's system.  I could add Engel Beltre to that discussion but hes probably 2 yearsor so away from hitting the radar
    Batting practice tomorrow you be there....I have Pop, everyday

    by laxtonto on Jan 16, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions  

    Francisco, Lewis, Jordan Brown, & others!
    Hello everyone,

    Colonel - I'm here!  :-)

    Regarding Francisco, he's likely to begin back at AAA Buffalo again - to get more at-bats and also to improve his defense a bit, especially in terms of consistency and getting better reads on balls.  Mind you, he hasn't done a bad job in the OF, but the Indians would like him to work a little more on his defense while at Buffalo - like most players, he has put more focus on his offense rather than his defense as he's moved up the ladder.

    Being that Sizemore, Dellucci, Michaels, Gutierrez, and Blake(?! - depending on whether Marte is the starting 3B,) there's virtually no room for Francisco at this point.  There's also Choo, who supposedly has made good progress in recovering from the arm/shoulder injury he suffered last season.

    Regarding Jensen Lewis, he has a fearless demeanor and goes right after the hitters.  His fastball can reach between 93-95 MPH and his slider has very good movement to it.  I think he's still working on a changeup (I think) to combat lefties better, but he showed some progress even with that late last season.

    Long-term, I think he could be a good setup man or possibly even a solid to good closer, since he has above-average stuff (better than Borowski's) and has the mindset to go right after hitters.  That's partly why he did so well in a relief role last year for the Indians, and is one of the main reasons why he will remain in the bullpen long-term (he was originally a starter prospect when he was drafted, but his FB velocity increased and his slider became much sharper out of the bullpen, thereby making the move to the bullpen in all likelihood permanent.)

    A quick thought on Laffey - I agree with lenred - I think Laffey can be a solid back-end of the rotation guy (#4-#5,) possibly a #3 at his very best, similar to Jake Westbrook.  It's amazing to see a LHP get as many groundballs as he does, as most groundball pitchers are RHP.  I think he will get a good chance to stick as the #5 pitcher to begin the 2008 season - some might even say he is the favorite amongst himself, Lee, Sowers, and Miller (though Miller might be the favorite if not for his questionable health in 2007, so Miller could be a darkhorse wild card to be the #5 starter, but I suspect the Indians will be cautious with him and allow him to return to AAA, especially since they have three other decent to solid options to fill that #5 spot to start 2008.)

    One C+ prospect who I think should be on the list you presented is OF Jordan Brown; in my opinion, he is probably one of the most underrated prospects in baseball, mostly because his tools don't stand out and wow you, but he gets the most out of his tools and skills - Baseball America named him as the prospect with the best tools in the Eastern League this past season.

    He is originally a 1B, and I've heard reports he is above-average, though he could use some more work there, but being that Garko is blocking him at the moment and the Indians also have Head at AA, not to mention some other possibilities (Whitney if he returns from the Nationals as several think he will, Mills if he eventually moves to 1B, Weglarz if he can't stick in LF long-term, Chris Nash down at SS-A Mahoning Valley, etc.,) Brown has been splitting time between 1B and LF.  He still needs more repetitions in LF, but looks pretty solid out there.

    He doesn't have the prototypical power you'd expect out of a 1B or LF (he might hit 20-25 HRs at most for a few seasons,) which is likely another reason why he gets overlooked and underranked, but he's won the Carolina League and Eastern League MVPs the last two seasons, not being that much older than league average, especially for a college draftee (out of the Univ. of Arizona.)

    Brown has a very good batting eye (nearly a 1:1 BB/K career ratio, including a 63 BB/56 K ratio in 483 AA ABs in 2007) and can hit for average (career .307 BA, including .333 at AA in 2007.)  Because of his good batting eye, he doesn't swing at many bad pitches and can post high OBPs (.421 at AA in 2007; combined with a .484 SLG, it led to a .905 OPS at AA in 2007.)  

    One of the reasons why many think he could hit 20-25 HRs in his prime is due to the fact he hits a lot of 2Bs (36 in 483 ABs at AA in 2007, along with 26 2Bs in 473 ABs at High-A in 2006.)  

    While not extremely fast, he's a smart baserunner, stealing 11/13 bases in 2007; he might have stolen more bases if not for a bad knee he had for all of the second half, as he only attempted a few stolen bases in the second half of last season.  I believe his knee is reported to be 100% now, as I think he had surgery on it this past offseason if I remember correctly.

    He'll begin 2008 at AAA Buffalo, playing both 1B and LF (mostly LF I suspect since I think 1B Ryan Mulhern is still in the Indians' organization, plus the fact Garko will very likely be the Indians' starting 1B in 2008); presuming he does well at AAA Buffalo in the first half, it's possible Brown could see time with the Indians in the second half of 2008, and especially if the Dellucci/Michaels platoon doesn't live up to expectations again in 2008.

    I think Brown is one who should be a B- or a B, based on his production the last two seasons, plus the fact he's not all that old (just turned 24-YO in December.)

    Nick Weglarz is another C+ prospect to keep an eye on - he hit .276 as a 19-YO in the SAL, has plus-plus power potential (hit 24-HRs in 2007 after breaking his hamate bone in 2006 and is projected to be as high as a 35-40 HR power threat in the future,) and drew 82 BBs in 439 ABs in the SAL, showing that he has an advanced eye and the discipline to work a walk at a young age.  He was talked about quite a bit in John's Top 20 Indians thread.

    Just my 2 cents.  :-)

    Take care and have a great day!

    The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

    by indiansfan on Jan 16, 2008 6:32 PM EST reply actions  

    Hi indiansfan,
    Your usual good stuff!  As you know, we look at things from a different perspective.  Here is my take on the C+ Tribe prospects.

    I believe that Jordan Brown, Ben Francisco, Jensen Lewis and Aaron Laffey are among the C+ rated prospects who will contribute to the Indians this year.  The simple reason is that they are not C+ prospects.  They are misrated just as Rafael Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera and others were last year.

    Jordan Brown is arguably the #2 prospect in the Cleveland system.  His OF range and speed were limited for the last two years by a knee problem which has been alleviated by surgery.  Look at when his SBs were last year.  Unless Dellucci really lights it up, I expect him to play LF by July in Cleveland.

    Jensen Lewis will be a late inning reliever this year.  Along with Perez, Sipp and Stevens, he will be auditioning for future closer this year.

    Francisco and Laffey both have difficult competition for opening day jobs but it would not surprise me if both make it.

    Do you find it odd that so many lower rated prospects with limited ceilings are finding places to contribute to a ML club that came within 1 game of being the best team in baseball?

    by sdtribefan on Jan 16, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

    I think that's a testament to the overall
    strength of the Indians' farm system as a whole.

    Hello sdtribefan,

    Thanks for the compliment - greatly appreciated!  :-)  You're doing nice work as well!

    Regarding Laffey, I think he could be considered the favorite for the #5 spot going into ST - whether he can maintain it against Lee, Sowers, and possibly Miller, I'm not sure, but I'm pretty sure his strong effort at the end of last year has to give him a bit of an edge coming into ST.

    Regarding Lewis, I think he'll either be a late-inning reliever based on his skill or be pushed back to the 6th-7th inning if Kobayashi and Betancourt do well in the 7th-8th innings, which actually would help to strengthen the bullpen if Lewis performs like he did last season.  But in terms of his skillset and ability, yes, Lewis could probably be a solid choice to be a 7th-8th inning reliever this year.  I suspect though the Indians will go to the more experienced (baseball, but not American baseball) Kobayashi to team up with Betancourt (and Perez in some instances, though he too could get time in the 6th-7th inning with Lewis as well, further strengthening the bullpen,) allowing Lewis to be pushed back to the 6th-7th inning in an effort to strengthen the bullpen and perhaps keep Lewis' innings from piling up too much in back-to-back seasons in his first two seasons as a reliever.  If Kobayashi falters or has difficulty adjusting to American baseball, the Indians can rely more on Lewis (and Perez) like they did last season when he (they) teamed up with Betancourt to get the game to Borowski.

    Francisco, admittedly, is essentially blocked by the glut of OFers we have (Dellucci, Michaels, Sizemore, Gutierrez, Blake if he remains in the OF, possibly Choo, though he'll probably start at AAA Buffalo as well,) but I think he can do a solid job as well when/if he's called upon.  He is likely better off getting more ABs and working to improve his defense, which isn't bad by any means, but the Indians just want him to focus more on it while at Buffalo, as like most players coming up through a farm system, he's focused more on his offense than his defense.

    I agree with you about Brown/Laffey/Lewis/Francisco - I think they are capable of providing meaningful contributions to the Indians this season.  For the record, Sickels did rate Lewis a B-, which I think is more appropriate.  However, I think the other three could have been rated higher, especially Brown, who I certainly think is worthy of a B- or even a B - he's arguably one of the more underrated prospects in the game, mostly because he doesn't hit for much power.  However, his skill set reminds me a lot of Mark Grace and Sean Casey, and both of them turned out to be above-average to excellent players for several seasons, even with that lack of power, so again, I'm not worried that he's not ranked that highly - I think he could prove that the rankings that were given to him are lower than they should be, as I definitely think he should be in the Indians' Top 10, as high as #2 on the list, only behind Adam Miller, who has some legitimate concerns about his health, but his ceiling is still a frontline starter and he could still reach it, which is why John said he'd be a B+ or A- if not for his elbow, so the ceiling is still there.

    In terms of it being odd that many lower-rated prospects with limited ceilings are finding places to contribute to a ML club that tied for the best record in the Majors in 2007, I think it goes to show that farm system and prospect rankings don't always tell the whole story - after all, just because you're a top-rated prospect doesn't guarantee success, just like being a prospect that isn't great in terms of potential or tools doesn't mean you can't be a solid or above-average MLer.  Some have even become stars in their own right - look at Mike Piazza - he wasn't highly regarded at all when he was drafted in the 62nd Rd. - yet, he is being considered as one of the greatest power-hitting catchers in the history of the game.  This again goes to show that rankings can only tell you so much about a farm system and the prospects in it.

    Just my 2 cents - no offense to anyone.

    Take care and have a great day!

    The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

    by indiansfan on Jan 17, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

    Adam Rosales, Cincinnati Reds
    Look for him to move to third base in AAA next year.
    http://www.redsminorleagues.com

    by dougdirt on Jan 16, 2008 8:06 PM EST reply actions  

    Manny Acosta's got a nice bullpen arm
    Manny Acosta has a nice arm and I'm hopeful that he'll be a useful bullpen piece. And I like Jo-Jo Reyes at some point in the future, if not this year.  He's a lefty who's probably better than the Horacio Ramirezes of the world. But Martin Prado can't hit enough to deserve to play -- he's got a supersub's bat without the ability to play shortstop. (Despite that, he may find a roster spot anyway. If that happens, it will be too bad.
    http://www.chop-n-change.com

    by alexwithclass on Jan 21, 2008 6:26 PM EST reply actions  

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