Kotsay for Devine and Richmond

by mraver on Jan 14, 2008 5:54 PM EST Comment 63 comments

That's the deal, here's the press release:

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20080114&content_id=2345 642&vkey=pr_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

What a moronic move by Wren. You're telling me Devine wasn't worth $4M or whatever it would have taken to get Cameron?

I was initially fine with this. I thought, "sure, bring in Kotsay for a filler guy and see if he's healthy. Prolly a 50/50 shot that he's not done, and maybe he's servicable as a #8 hitter."

But now it looks like Cox is going to hit him 1 or 2 in the lineup and count on him to play 145 games. Oh, and word is we're now on the market for a "veteran" to shore up the bullpen.

And was it really necessary to throw in Richmond, who still has the potential to actually do something eventually?

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Note: I realize this isn't franchise-wrecking or anything; I just can't think of a reason for doing it at all. There's like a 50/50 chance it improves the team for 2008, and after that, it's all downside.

Poll

Is this deal worse than:

Getting Mulder for Haren, etc.?

25 votes

Other (please which crappy deal you'd rather have made)

28 votes

Getting Zambrano for Kazmir?

12 votes

Getting Horacio Ramirez for Rafel Soriano?

64 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Aren't you gifting $2M to the A's?

They weren't going to get any real use out of Kotsay post fire sale. For that, the price is two of the Braves top pitching prospects. Maybe if Beane would have waited, Wren would have "thrown in" Rohrbough, as well.

by parish on Jan 14, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

I was under the impression that there really was no market for Kotsay, what with him having been complete trash since 2005.

But apparently he was worth a MLB-ready reliever with closer upside (though I think he'll be stuck as more of a 7th inning guy; a good 7th inning guy, but a 7th inning guy) and another top 30 fringy guy.

by mraver on Jan 14, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crisp

You probably could have gotten Crisp, who can still play and then trade him at the All Star Break or at the end of the season when Shafer was ready.

by kofanis0880 on Jan 14, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Feels more like #2

An "understandable" deal, but just don't think it's a good deal for Atlanta. I don't think the value is as wacky as it was for the first and third options in your poll.

by toonsterwu on Jan 14, 2008 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sickles ranking

Devine - B
Richmond - C+

by rayver723 on Jan 14, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2nd and 7th

...best pitchers on the Braves' farm.

by parish on Jan 14, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if one were to guess

do you think Richmond would be in the Oakland top 20 (adjusted for the Swisher deal as well)?

by sourstuff on Jan 14, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

top 20? yeah

maybe somewhere around 15.

barton
carlogon
gio
fautino
simmons
anderson
cunningham
carter
cahill
blevins
rodriguez
bailey
brown
mitchell
smith
... this is around where richmond fits in. that's 15.

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Doolittle

??????

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. George Carlin

by GregJP on Jan 14, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Devine?

by jfish26101 on Jan 14, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Um

Greg Smith has pitched in AAA. Richmond hasn't even pitched in A+.

He's at about the same level as Vince Mazzaro, better numbers, but probably worse stuff, and a little older. Mazzaro ranked #25 on Athletics Nation's recent Community Prospects list, so I'd slot Richmond in at the low 20's range.

Looked at another way, he's not that much different from Graham Godfrey, who Oakland got in the Marco Scutaro trade. He didn't crack the top 30.

by PaulThomas on Jan 14, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Deceptive

Richmond's one of about a zillion C+ guys on John's list, and the order down there isn't reflective of much at all.

More important, to me, is the fact that Richmond for some reason dropped from a B on John's 2007 list to C+ on John's 2008 list.

by Yakker on Jan 14, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was the fact that

Richmond had significantly higher walk and hit rates in low-A than he did in rookie ball. Don't get me wrong, his walk rate was still impressive, and a 9+ Hit/9 rate isn't damning for a guy with strong GB tendencies (although those were also off in Rome) and a low-A defense behind him, but the most you can say for him is that he pitched 140 innings in his first full year.

He could make something out of himself for sure, and giving him up on top of Devine was just stupid.

by mraver on Jan 14, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

Yeah, I saw his #s go down, but he was still like 4:1 K/BB right? I mean, if you only walk 4 guys in Rookie Ball, you're gonna walk more in a full season. :-)

I'm wondering if John dropped him because of "stuff." Because he seemed to like Richmond quite a bit in the 2007 BPB. It'll be interesting to see what John says in this year's book to explain the drop in grade.

Guess we'll have to wait and see...

by Yakker on Jan 14, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

man

I first want to admit that I have read like 10 comments about this Richmond guy so clearly I am as big of a dork as all of you posting. That said, I'm not saying that no one should care about this guy because he is about the 25th to 30th best prospect in an organization....actually I recant my entire post midstream...this guy was the Appy league pitcher of the year in 06? Great trade Oakland. I repent.

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 15, 2008 2:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I want to make one more comment

Have you seen this guy's numbers in Danville. I think I just got nautious. He probably doesn't have a ceiling, but that is gross.

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 15, 2008 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

richmond

have to say i don't know much about the guy. looking at his stats, he's definitely a billy beane kind of pitcher--check out the 61/4 K/BB ratio last year in danville!

looks like he was a GB machine in danville (2.26 GO/AO), and then not so much this year in rome (1.14). has anybody seen him pitch? i wonder if he made a mechanical change.

all in all, i'm very pleasantly surprised that the A's were able to get anything useful for kotsay, even after eating most of his salary. i would have been happy with just devine; devine+richmond is even sweeter.

by the way, does richmond even crack the rotation at stockton? it's getting a little ridiculous down there.

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 6:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ehhh

Good control but he hasn't really improved his velocity past around 90 mph like some people thought he would and his secondary pitches aren't much.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jan 14, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

How poor was the defense in Rome? Richmond gave up 24 unearned runs in 138 innings. He also gave up 141 hits. Just looking at the numbers (including weak K rate), I agree with John that the C+ grade is "aggressive."

by bootsy on Jan 14, 2008 7:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

John gave him a straight B last year. Richmond has some upside to him; he hasn't been a starter for too long if I recall.

by aCone419 on Jan 14, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good eye

I saw that R/ER disparity and thought the same thing. My guess is that Richmond's stuff is a bit better than his H/9 makes it look.

by ToddyBaseball on Jan 15, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wren

Well, there's just got to be something more going on here. Wren can't possibly be this much of a moron (especially with Schuerholz still in the mix).

They obviously have some reason to think Kotsay is healthy and will be productive for them. This is a guy whose OPS+ was 117 and 97 the two years in Oakland before he started to break down. He also appears to barely squeak in as a Type B, so they'll get a pick out of him after 08, FWIW.

IMO, the Braves front office has built enough credibility that we need to give them some time and see how this works out.

by Yakker on Jan 14, 2008 8:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If it was Schurholtz...

If JS was still in charge, I'd be a little more optimistic, but Wren certainly has yet to learn the benefit of the doubt. It just seems like a bad move from every perspective. We basically sold Devine for $2-4M depending on how much you think the A's didn't want to pay Kotsay.

by mraver on Jan 14, 2008 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Wonder

what JS's role really is these days. Because this is precisely the sort of thing that you would have expected him to nix (an early move for Wren, dealing two of JS's draftees, tussling with snake oil salesman Billy Beane, etc.).

Unless JS has gone out to pasture and left the store unattended, but that doesn't seem likely to me.

by Yakker on Jan 14, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Especially this early in the run, I expect that JS is staying out of personnel decisions, other than in an advisory capacity (or more accurately support). You don't promote a guy just to undercut him the first move he makes. Wren needs to establish an identity and apparent autonomy.

by bootsy on Jan 15, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair Enough

Though it seems to me that you could see it the other way, too. This is still the "training" period.

Either way, this certainly seems like a questionable move. Time will tell how it works out, though the Braves organization has done an excellent job in recent years in acquiring players low and selling players high, IMO. Lots of that credit rightly goes to Scheurholz, but there were plenty of others (including the talent evaluators and the front office people like Wren) who helped make that happen.

by Yakker on Jan 15, 2008 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

done forget

that Wren was assistant GM in Florida when they drafted Kotsay.

I think JS is the kind of guy that would let Wren make a boneheaded deal; he's got the keys now, let him make his own mistakes.

by nevin on Jan 15, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Draft Pick

The Braves won't be getting a draft pick for Mark Kotsay. They would have to offer him Arbitration to get a pick and you can only cut a salary by like 10% or 15% in Arbitration so they would have to offer Kotsay like 7 Million dollars. Kotsay would be an idiot to leave a 7 Million dollar deal on the table to go somewhere else.

by NMUWildcat027 on Jan 15, 2008 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IMO

You are reacting way too harshly on the trade. It may be a bad move but there is no way you could think that this will hurt like the mistakes you mentioned. If you want more reasons reply.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Jan 14, 2008 10:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

true...

because we really don't know if Devine will be worth a damn and Kotsay can't possibly be as bad as H.Ramirez. Although, Devine could be something like Soriano. The Braves didn't need to make this trade. If I was a Brave fan I wouldn't like it. We do know about Kotsay's mediocre (at best) game if he still has that left, but we don't know how good Devine could be. I'd rather go with the unknown in this case.

by butkussayers on Jan 14, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You didn't hear?

The A's aslo got a bonus prospect in Jamie Richmond.

by Jay212033 on Jan 14, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the problem is

that there's no evidence that Kotsay would play any better than Josh Anderson, who the Braves already had in-house and who runs better (40+ SBs each of the last two years in the minors). Anderson costs less money (minimum) wouldn't cost them what appears to be an excellent power pitcher who they rushed by was finally figuring it out (let's remember that last year was his 23 y.o. season and look at his AA / AAA numbers: http://thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Joey-Devine.shtml), and threw in a guy who could develop into a cheap servicable bullpen guy (Jamie Richmond)? All to have someone they could trust? And if they weren't going to trust Anderson, then why trade for him? Its not a killer deal, but it doesn't make very good sense. Gotta figure Bobby's part of it, feeling Devine needed a new place and wanted a vet he could trust. I guess if I were the GM and Bobby told me he thought it was the better way to go I'd listen to him.

by nevin on Jan 15, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Counterpoint

Chipper and Smoltz aren't getting any younger, this is likely Cox's last year managing, and Texeira will likely test free agency after the 2008 season.

The window's closing, and having Josh Anderson in CF isn't exactly a "win-now" mentality.

by Yakker on Jan 15, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Win-now

Do you really think having Kotsay in CF in 2008 is "win-now" mentality?

by parish on Jan 15, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You Know

People on here are really ripping Kotsay, but it's only been a few years since the guy's OPS+ was near 120, with excellent CF defense. If he can get that back, he'll be excellent for the Braves.

by Yakker on Jan 15, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Big "IF"

It is possible that Devine is more of a sure thing than Kotsay at this point.

by parish on Jan 15, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Yeah, gimme the guy with 20+ IPs in the bigs.

Seriously, sometimes people on this site really crack me up.

by Yakker on Jan 16, 2008 2:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's pretty condescending

I guess you know exactly what to expect from Kotsay.

He hit .214 and slugged .296 last year in over 200 ABs. He is also coming off back surgery, so I am not quite sure what to expect from him diving after balls in centerfield. Yeah, he used to be a better player, but he was terrible last year.

Devine, on the other hand, supported his 1.59 ERA over 57 IP last year with a WHIP around 1 and 12.3 K/9.

Does this crack you up?

by parish on Jan 16, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

When trying to determine what to expect from a player at the major league level, I'd generally go with the guy who's got a proven track record there, not the guy whom you're projecting based on a handful of minor league innings.

Does Kotsay have some risk? Absolutely. But to say Devine has less because of some good ratios in a repeat performance at AA (and, to some extent, AAA) strikes me as pretty incorrect.

I'm sorry if that seems condescending.

by Yakker on Jan 16, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But....

How good is the proven track record and how reliable is it to project for next year?

You are referencing what Kotsay did 2-3 years ago. Last year in a fairly significant number of at bats he was awful as supported by the stats above. If the Braves were to get what Kotsay's recent track record suggests, I believe they would have preferred any outcome from Devine and Richmond, as the guys Kotsay will be replacing could outperform that at less of a cost in salary and prospects.

What's more, his month to month splits do not take him in the right direction:

June - .233 BA, .330 SLG
July - .240 BA, .320 SLG
August - .071 BA, .107 SLG

Maybe, I am hoping that Kotsay's '08 performance is equally unpredictable as Devine's because Kotsay's recent data points do not project anything of value.

by parish on Jan 16, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hurt

I'm honestly not paying much attention to what Kotsay did in 06 and 07, given the constant pain he was in. Don't know how much you saw him live, but the spasms and the rest clearly showed in his effort/production.

IMO, the Braves physical was probably quite thorough, especially as to his back which is an obvious source of concern for everyone. Now, he apparently passed the physical exam with flying colors. He's always had good range in CF, and he has a strong arm (used to pitch in college).

I think 2005's OPS+ around 100 is probably a fair projection for him in 2008, with the possible upside of his 2004 116 OPS+. And steady, if unremarkable CF defense.

by Yakker on Jan 16, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't see...

I just don't see a 32yo guy coming off surgery and two+ years removed from being even replacement level turning in a performance near his career-best, let alone his career average. Like I said in the original post, I give it about a 50/50 chance to improve the team for 2008, and most of that is the chance the Kotsay is healthy and playing at a decent level.

by mraver on Jan 15, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're acting

like 32 is over the hill or something. Not to compare the players, but last offseason people were writing off guys like Magglio Ordonez, Sheff, and others.

Now, I'm not saying I'd sign Kotsay to a long-term deal, as it's quite likely he'll be a bad investment by age 35 or 36 or so, but there's nothing wrong IMO with a one-year stop-gap until Schafer or someone is ready to man CF.

And yes, Kotsay's two years removed from an OPS+ of 100 (and three years, and his last healthy season, removed from an OPS+ of 120) but that's not exactly "replacement level" for a plus defender in CF with a good arm.

by Yakker on Jan 16, 2008 2:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and

a few more points on this deal:

-- Kotsay's in a contract year and obviously needs to play well. If healthy (and he passed a rigorous physical), he'll play his heart out in Atlanta.

-- I remember the last time the Braves dealt with Billy Beane, a lot of folks jumped all over the Braves...Huddy's peripherals were dropping, Beane would just slot Meyer into the rotation and replicate Huddy's performance, and the Braves added insult to injury when they included a power bullpen arm like Juan Cruz (and Charles Thomas, although everyone pretty much agreed he was an aberration). Well, we know how that worked out.

by Yakker on Jan 16, 2008 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's certainly not as bad as the Kazmir deal

But at least the other trades made sense for the teams at the time. This just... doesn't. There was no market for Kotsay; the A's were just looking to move his salary. He's old, coming off an injury, and on a one year deal. There's no reason to sell Devine for what amounts to $2-4M, and throwing Richmond on top is just dumb.

Moreover, to make this deal and then go out and look for more bullpen help (as the Braves' MLB.com guy, Mark Bowman claims they are doing) is asinine.

I like Kotsay, and I think there's about a 50/50 chance he helps the team this year. But common! The only way this deal works out well for the Braves is if Devine blows out his arm or just can't pitch at the majors for whatever reason.

Or I guess if Kotsay has a career year. But if you're counting on a career year, why not just ask for it from one of your internal options?

Yeesh.

by mraver on Jan 15, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Overreacting

I did not answer the poll because this mistake is not nearly on the scale of the others. This deal might actually be as much of a mismatch in value, but it won't have near the impact.

by parish on Jan 15, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shanks...

Old Bill Shanks likes this trade because it gives the Braves a gritty veteran who has great clubhouse presence.

That should set alarm bells ringing.

by JimmyJack on Jan 15, 2008 6:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eh...

While obviously not a great trade for the Braves, I will err on the side of caution. Last time that Billy Beane had anything to do with the Braves, he got hosed (granted, partially due to an unfortunate shoulder injury to Dan Meyer). While I realize JS was in charge then, I'm still inclined to believe that there is something here that the Braves see that we don't. As a general rule, I NEVER trust any prospect that the Braves are actually willing to deal.

Joey Devine has certainly had a very nice run in AAA, and has the look of a quality reliever. Richmond is likely someone who's stuff won't play at the next level (which is about 2 levels away from where it matters). That having been said, I'd like to know where the Braves could have done better than Mark Kotsay for what they're paying on this market? I'm sure they tried on Mike Cameron, and Corey Patterson likely won't be accepting a one-year deal in this market. This is a team that is built to compete this year, and as a win-now club, it behooves them to add players who can, you know, help them win now. A healthy Mark Kotsay (and he's said to have passed a very grueling physical) will go a long way to that.

I don't want to be misread here, as I do think that Beane looks like he likely got the better of this trade, but I think that we'd be remiss to dismiss the reality of the situation. That reality is that a healthy Mark Kotsay goes a long way towards helping the Braves contend in 08, and will do more to ameliorate the club then would basically a rookie Joey Devine. Long-term? Who knows, likely Devine is more valuable. But for next year, and for their purposes, I think that the Braves did ok.

by GuyinNY on Jan 15, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

PS

As a Mets fan who had to live through Victor Zambrano, and lives through Scott Kazmir's burgeoning acehood, there really is no comparison. Devine will never be as good, nor is he as highly rated, as Kazmir. Take that as a compliment, and be happy about it.

PS - does anybody know what Kazmir's "choices" are that WC alluded to in yesterday's BP chat?

by GuyinNY on Jan 15, 2008 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: WC on Kazmir

I think WC was hinting that Kazmir was a cake boy. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

by I Love Oakland As on Jan 15, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have no idea what that means

by Dfarth on Jan 15, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Obvious

If you've ever watched an episode of Seinfeld. Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 15, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Urban Dictionary is your friend. (ahem)

Think light, fluffy, soft and moist. I didn't come up with it...

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Jan 16, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'll guess

does it have to do with pitching for the strikeout title down the stretch, as opposed to being shut down to protect his arm like shields?

by jpahk on Jan 15, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

out of curiosity

who starts in the A's outfield next year? buck, denorfia, sweeney, carlogon, emil brown? i'm assuming cust will be the DH (dan johnson at 1B).

by jpahk on Jan 15, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Barton

Barton is starting at 1st. My guess is that they give Gonzalez some more time at AAA, just a hunch. I would like to say Sweeney, Denorfia, and Buck, but I'd still think Brown could... could be better than any of those guys at this point in time (not that I would expect him to play over Buck anyway).

by ajake57 on Jan 15, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

whoops

somehow i forgot about barton. okay, barton at 1st... DJ on the bench? it's a huge defensive hit if they DH johnson and have cust play the outfield.

my subjective impression is that denorfia is the only "true" CF on the roster. i think the organization wants to try out carlogon in center, though, and see if he can hack it. sweeney also was a very highly rated defender in a corner; he might be an adequate CF too. recall that both kotsay and damon were originally corner OFs on other teams. damon was shifted to CF by the A's, kotsay by the padres (before the A's traded for him), and both worked out great there.

either way, it's going to be a bit of a logjam out there. i get the impression that brown might only play vs LHP.

by jpahk on Jan 15, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No way Gonzalez is up before June

The A's are not going to waste his service time on a lost season. They will make sure that he is not going to be a Super Two in arbitration in 2011. It's probably a good move anyway-- I suspect the team will be expecting him to improve his pitch selection and walk rates before promoting him to the Show.

I'd expect the team to open with Denorfia, Buck and Sweeney starting, Brown platooning with Sweeney against lefties, and Cust as the fifth outfielder as well as the DH. In the unlikely event that DJ is still on the roster, though, I'd like to see them go with DJ platooning with Brown (DJ DH, Cust RF vs. righties, Cust DH, Brown RF against lefties) and call up Nick Blasi to be the backup OF. Sweeney should get regular playing time.

by PaulThomas on Jan 15, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all that sounds reasonable

i wonder what, if anything, barry bonds has to do with all of this.

by jpahk on Jan 15, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a bad deal for the Braves

The Braves pitching staff is old and they are trying to win now. A GM has to balance stockpiling prospects for the future with cashing in those chips for a proven major league player.

The Braves have Josh Anderson to back up Kotsay, Brandon Jones can play a little center, and Jordan Schafer knocking on the door. A set-up man to get a transitional centerfielder is not a terrible. Mark Kotsay plays fine defense and has a half decent bat. If he stays healthy, he's enough to keep them afloat until Brandon Jones and/or Schafer are ready to take over.

I'm sorry, I just don't believe relievers, even projectable late inning ones, are to be hoarded.

by smittybanton on Jan 15, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hoarding?

I'm not sure you can classify trading Villareal (also for a stop gap cf), Ascanio, and Devine while losing Mahay and Dotel as hoarding relievers. It is quite possible that Devine would have been one of the better arms in the Braves' pen this year. You also need a bullpen to win.

by parish on Jan 15, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs