is the most underrated prospect in the game.

Compare:

Player A playing in lo-A at age 19
.276/.395/.497 (.341 BABIP)
24% K-rate, 16% BB-rate, 15% LD-rate

Player B playing in lo-A at age 19
.289/.386/.443 (.365 BABIP)
21% K-rate, 14% BB-rate, 14% LD-rate

Player C playing in lo-A at age 19
.313/.377/.525 (.407 BABIP)
25% K-rate, 10% BB-rate, 14% LD-rate

In case you're wondering:
Player A: Nicholas Weglarz C+
Player B: Lars Anderson B+
Player C: Travis Snider B+

nice.  as is well known, i love this guy.

He put up pretty good numbers in relief.  He's a little old for the level, but there is a lot of talk about him making a big jump this year.  He deserves a mention as a C/C+ guy at the least, IMO.

Nick Weglarz, OF, Cleveland Indians
Bats: L    Throws: L     HT: 6-3      WT: 215   DOB: December 16, 1987

A broken hamate cost Nick Weglarz the 2006 season, but he showed no ill effects in '07, posting a +21 percent OPS in the Sally League and showing plus power from the left side. He also has good plate discipline and draws plenty of walks, but his strikeout rate is high and batting average will be a problem against better pitching. Hamate problems often sap the power from young hitters, so it is good to see Weglarz knock 24 homers his first season back. He doesn't offer much except power, but he offers a LOT of it. A breakthrough campaign is possible in '08, so keep an eye on him. Grade C+ but a sleeper.

As I have said a million times, you can only tell so much from the letter grade. There is the Weglarz comment as it will appear in the book, which went to press this morning.

Hello everyone, I hope you are all doing very well!  :-)

Sorry I have not been around much lately - been very busy; I probably will not be able to provide complete thoughts on this list right now, but will give some initial thoughts.  If I have a chance later on to comment further, I will.

Some initial thoughts to the list:

1. I would suggest also going to this link (I hope it is appropriate to provide this link - if not, my apologies and please feel free to remove) to help provide more coverage on the Indians' prospects.
2.  The system as a whole doesn't have the notable names that some systems do (like the Yankees and Red Sox,) but as John mentioned, there is still depth here, and considerable depth in my opinion, outside of middle infielders, where only three are very prominent at this point (Rodriguez, Goedert, and Rivero, NOT Davis, who I would rate lower than the Top 20, being that he did not excel at Low-A Lake County in 2007 after putting up a sub-par season at SS-A Mahoning Valley after he was drafted.  Plus, from what I have read and heard, his tools are okay, but nothing that stand out.  Right now, I see him as being a potential backup, with only a strong bounceback year in 2008 possibly thrusting him into the conversation of being a possible future MI starter, and in a system where MI is the one main weakness in terms of depth, that does not speak well about Davis' value as a prospect in my opinion.)
3. Based on #2, I think Rivero has considerable upside (check out that link above for more information on Rivero's considerable tools and high ceiling); one scout even thought that he could have a body similar to Miguel Cabrera (the in-shape Cabrera is what I think the scout was referring to when he made that comment, not the Cabrera who was supposedly out-of-shape during the 2007 season.)
4. Like Rivero, there are some other notable  young prospects with high ceilings, which is why I think the Indians' system is in better shape than some are thinking - at least in the #10-#15 range of overall farm systems, possibly could even make the very bottom part (#9 or #10) of a Top 10 list.  John mentioned one of those young pitchers - Paolo Espino - outside of the HRs given up, his other stats were very solid, and he was only 20-YO in the SAL, so his upside is pretty high.

Three other pitchers one should keep an eye on are RHP Jeanmar Gomez, RHP Hector Rondon, and LHP Kelvin De La Cruz - all have at least solid to above-average stuff, and all are projectable.  I believe De La Cruz has the best stuff of the three, though he's arguably the furthest away, since he only reached Mahoning Valley and his command is the most erratic of the three.  However, he is only 19-YO, so he has plenty of time to hone that command.  After having some command trouble in some earlier starts, he was able to hone it enough where he combined with two other pitchers to throw a no-hitter at MV (De La Cruz threw 5 no-hit innings himself.)  He also was able to cut down on the walks throughout his last few starts, so the potential for improvement is there and his ceiling is quite high.

After some rocky periods, both Gomez and Rondon did fairly well in the SAL, considering that Gomez was 18-YO and Rondon was 19-YO, as well as both of them were in their first full professional seasons, and both stayed healthy throughout.  And, like De La Cruz and Espino, both are projectable as well in terms of gaining more strength (as well as velocity) and growing into their bodies more.

You can read more info. about Rondon from BA here.

There are other pitchers in the system worth noting, like RHP Neil Wagner, who was mentioned in John's "Others to Watch" list; he has one of the best arms in the system, throwing regularly in the mid-90s, reaching 98 MPH, and LHP Reid Santos, who has consistently put up above-average to excellent strike out numbers over the past two seasons at AA Akron.  He also throws in the low-90s and can reach the mid-90s on occasion, and has shown in the past he can get both LH and RH hitters out.

I'll have more information in another post - stay tuned!  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

Hello again everyone,

(continued from my first post above):

5. No offense, but I would not have either Adam Davis or Brad Snyder on that Top 20 list - I mentioned why with Davis in my earlier post.

Regarding Snyder, I learned that he is supposedly a plus defender and he was still having repercussions from that eye infection he suffered a few seasons ago, supposedly in regaining his confidence and in his timing.  However, his strike zone discipline is still questionable and there are several other OFers who are either ahead of him or are right behind him; combine that with his age and what will likely amount to his final chance in 2008 to really show he can stick on a ML roster and contribute, I really don't see him being that highly-rated, no offense.  Personally, I would have Jordan Brown higher - while Brown's tools might not match up with Snyder's, Brown's performance is much further ahead of where Snyder's was at the same age, and Brown's strike zone judgment is a strength of his, leading to much higher BAs than Snyder's, whereas Snyder's plate discipline has really fallen off since he reached High-A in 2004-2005.  I can see Brown adapting to the MLs and being able to contribute at a solid to high level, but not Snyder - his lack of strike zone judgment would greatly neutralize his power in my opinion, which is really his one strong offensive skill.  

On a related note, a slight disagreement regarding Weglarz - he not only has power, he also has patience and the ability to take a walk, something that is pretty rare in a teenage hitting prospect.  Arguably, Weglarz is ahead of Snyder's ability to control the strike zone at the same Low-A level - prorated out, Snyder's walk rate at Low-A Lake County at age 22 would have been 69 BBs/113 BBs in 438 ABs, compared to Weglarz's 82 BBs/129 Ks at age 19.  With more experience facing more-advanced pitching, I think Weglarz's plate discipline can be stronger than Snyder's, and I think that's a skill worth noting.  Several young prospects display power, but much fewer prospects show the level of plate discipline and the willingness to take a walk as Weglarz has shown to this point at the age of 19 in the SAL.  Granted, he needs to handle the strikeouts better, but it's only marginally worse than Snyder's at the same level, and Weglarz was 3 full years younger than Snyder, plus it's more common for teenage hitters to struggle a bit with making contact, but rarer to see them be able to exhibit the strike zone judgment and patience necessary to take a walk at that young age.

Names like those I mentioned in my earlier post (Espino, De La Cruz, Gomez, Rondon) or guys like Jeff Stevens, who has been quite dominant as a reliever since he came over as the PTBNL in the Brandon Phillips trade and projects to be at least a 7th/8th inning guy (even compared to Rafael Betancourt by Tony at the Cleveland Fan I provided above in terms of how his fastball velocity has increased since the move to the bullpen and the fact that it gets on batters quickly,) RHP Neil Wagner (see previous post,) LHP Reid Santos (see previous post,) or even Tony Sipp, who still has a decent to solid chance of regaining his old form (reportedly, 90+% of pitchers undergoing TJ surgery make a full recovery,) I think would be more appropriate on this list than guys like Snyder or Davis, due to the fact that Snyder is running out of time and has some considerable weakness in making consistent contact and Davis not excelling in his first full professional season at Low-A Lake County, despite being drafted as a junior (I think) out of Florida, and will only be entering High-A in his second full-season in 2008 at age 23.

6. For the record, the #10 prospect on this list is "John Drennen" - I mention this so that everyone will have an easier time finding him when you look for his stats and for analysis on him.
7. Jordan Brown is a guy who will probably not "wow" you with his tools (though BA did rate him as having the best tools of any hitting prospect in the Eastern League last season,) but his consistent production over the last few seasons is hard to ignore (enough to give him MVP honors in both the Carolina League and the Eastern League) and is reportedly above-average at 1B.  He may be blocked by Garko or someone, necessitating his move to LF, but early reports seem to indicate he can handle the position.  Also keep in mind that he had the knee injury last year, which supposedly is now healed, so I don't see his defense in LF as being a problem long-term.

While he might not provide the prototypical power you'd want from a corner OF, Brown's other abilities can probably help to overcome a little lack of power, though some reports and thoughts I've read think he could maybe reach 20-25 HRs in his peak (for a few seasons anyway.)  

Personally, he reminds me of a poor man's Mark Grace, in that he (originally in Brown's case) was a 1B with limited power, but played good defense, hit for a .300+ average, and posted very strong BB/K ratios.  Another guy who comes to mind is former Indians' prospect Sean Casey, who had several solid seasons with the Reds.

So, in tools, Brown may not "wow" someone, but I think he could be a very solid, productive MLer, which could provide a solid argument for putting him somewhere in the B- to B range.

8. In regards to Aaron Laffey, watching him last season, including in the postseason, he seems to have the ability to induce groundballs at a rate that is more conducive to groundballing right-handers like Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Derek Lowe, Roy Halladay, etc..  Combine that with improving command over the last few seasons, as well as very solid performances at ages younger than relative to the respective leagues, and I'd think he could warrant a slightly higher grade - a B- or B perhaps.
9. I do agree with John about Josh Rodriguez - I think he is a bit underrated by some - realize that he had 20 2Bs, 9 3Bs, 20 HRs, and 21 SBs, along with a 68 BB/95 K ratio.  While he was a college draftee out of Rice and was 22-YO, the power seems legitimate as Kinston only slightly favored HR hitters in 2006 (1.10 - I couldn't find the 2007 ballpark factor ratings) and from 2004-2006, the weighted factor suggested that Kinston was essentially a neutral-hitting site (1.01.)

I think he is arguably the Indians' best MI prospect and probably the closest to the MLs, as I could see starting at Akron or reaching there by June at the latest.  Goedert is not far behind, but I suspect he'll play the first half at least at Kinston, since he was out for a good portion of last season with a shoulder injury, though he finished strong at Kinston.  I could see Goedert at Akron sometime in the second half of 2008.  And, from what I have read and heard from Indians' officials, both he and Beau Mills have looked solid to good at their new defensive positions (Goedert at 2B and Mills at 3B,) enough so that they will stay there to begin 2008.  

10. Overall John, nice work on the list - we appreciate your efforts, even if there is some disagreement regarding the list and the rankings.  :-)

Please take care and have a great day!

I have him as the #1 prospect.  I love a lefty with stuff.  Hes so young for the advanced level he is playing at.

I've given up on Miller.  Between his weak results in the high minors and injuries, he needs to earn his way back into top prospect status in my books.

& Miller.

Hello bheikoop,

I still think pretty highly of Lofgren - granted, his season last year did have its inconsistencies, especially in terms of command, which is something he still has to work on, but being that he is just about to turn 22-YO, he has time to figure things out.

I think Tony at theclevelandfan.com is the one who mentioned that Lofgren will start at AAA Buffalo (could be wrong on that.)  Personally, I wish they would have Lofgren return to AA for a month or two, just to get him in a good groove to head into AAA; while Lofgren did make a few good starts at the end of the AA season, his season was erratic, including some considerable struggles in the second half of that AA season.  I'd like to see where Lofgren is able to stay consistent from start to start and be able to go deeper into games on a consistent basis before he is promoted to AAA.

As for Miller, I can understand the concerns about the injuries - I think that is the major thing holding him back and the greatest challenge he has to overcome.  However, I wouldn't call his results in the high minors weak - his AA season in 2006 was considered to be pretty strong, at least above-average.  As for AAA to this point, they have not been what was expected, but outside of 1-2 bad outings before his injury, he was handling AAA fairly well until he suffered the finger injury.  

When he returned, he seemed to be out of rhythm (perhaps compensating for the elbow that later shut him down for a while,) which likely led to his struggling in many starts before he was shut down with the elbow injury.  After he returned from that, he had 1-2 bad starts, but also seemed to be getting back on track toward the end of the AAA season.  

Therefore, most of his weak results at AAA were due to his assortment of injuries, while his AA results were strong.  I think the injuries are his greatest challenge - if he can stay healthy (a sizable IF,) I think he has the stuff, makeup, and poise to handle AAA, a level he has had some success at when he's been healthy, which unfortunately was not too often during the 2007 season.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

P.S. I'm glad to see you also think a solid argument can be made to including the Indians' farm system in a Top 10 list, as you mentioned in this comment in the Reds' BP Top 11 thread.  

As I mentioned to jpahk, the top prospects like Miller, Lofgren, and Crowe did not have the years one would have liked to have seen out of them, but there is more quality depth in the lower part of the system than there has been in the last 1-3 seasons - the fact that the Low-A Lake County Captains had more high-ceiling younger players than they've had in the last several seasons is a testament to that, including guys like Espino, who had a pretty solid to strong season at Low-A at age 20, outside of giving up a few too many HRs.  And there's more at SS-A Mahoning Valley and at Rookie-Level GCL Indians - John mentioned a few of them - Brown, Cawiezell, White, etc.  In addition, I mentioned young promising pitching prospects down at Low-A and below like Kelvin De La Cruz, Jeanmar Gomez, Hector Rondon, Ryan Morris, and Chris Jones.  Neil Wagner is also very promising, and he spent a solid amount of time at High-A in 2007; I think he could reach AA, maybe even AAA this season if he starts off the 2008 season in strong fashion.

That's why I think the system can be ranked anywhere from #9-#15, and not in the bottom third of all farm systems as I don't believe the system is that devoid of talent when compared to other farm systems.

Just my 2 cents on that.  :-)

Take care and have a great weekend!