2008 community prospect ratings--taylor teagarden

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 12:48 AM EST Comment 14 comments

this thread is for discussion of taylor teagarden, C, texas rangers. here are some links to teagarden's stats:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=14331
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Taylor%20Teagarden&pos=C&sid=milb& amp;t=p_pbp&pid=460003
http://firstinning.com/players/Taylor-Teagarden-a/

i'll leave this thread open for at least 48 hours. you can vote at any time, but since you can't change your vote, if you are uncertain in any way, it's probably best to refrain from voting until after you get a chance to read the discussion.

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1

the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.

for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.

Poll

How good a prospect is Taylor Teagarden?

1

3 votes

10

9 votes

9

10 votes

8

18 votes

7

36 votes

6

28 votes

5

17 votes

4

5 votes

3

4 votes

2

1 votes

131 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

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Comments

teagarden

i'll chime in here--i think this guy is a cal league illusion. he's old, he strikes out a ton (every 3 AB in both A+ and AA), and nobody knows if his bat will hold up if/when he goes back to catching full time. he's also got a mildly worrisome injury history. he's scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as top 100 prospects. i think that means he's a 6. i think he's the 4th-best catcher out of this batch (ahead of only anderson).

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 9:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ok, Devil's Advocate here...

First of all, let's recognize that this was Teagarden's FIRST full year as a pro. He's only appears old because he lost a year due to injury, so I have a hard time holding that against him. Developmentally, it's his first year, and in that context, I think you can say it was a pretty impressive debut.

When you look at his first year in short season as a pro, he showed what he's showing now, good power, good walks, bad Ks, and fair average. And he gave you the same thing when he went to AA, good power, good walks, bad Ks, fair average. His Cali numbers are illusory, however, he still seems like a Varitek-type player.

I can't blame him for where Texas placed him out of college, or where they placed him after his injury. Offensively, he seems like he's been the same kind of player wherever he goes.

I'd give him a 7, mainly due to lack of positional depth. I think, best case, he could turn into a Varitek-type player, and given he's really only had one year as a pro, he didn't do poorly at all.

by beastball on Jan 14, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No!

Not good walks in AA. His walk rate halved against pitchers that don't suck, 8.6% v. 17.9%. It's a pretty small sample size, but it doesn't look good. Between that and the K rate spike in AA (nearly 10% higher), I am convinced that he is 90% Cal league/ARL illusion.

He's Mike Napoli without the walks, but somewhat better defense (assuming the TJS recovery goes well).

All that said, the power is real and his defense should be an asset, and at his position that makes him a "good" prospect at least. 6 for me.

"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on Jan 14, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still feel...

that a walk rate of close one per 10 PAs is good, not as good as in SS or the Cali league, but I still consider it to be good.

Hmm...that's not a bad comp, I was also thinking about Tettleton, lots of power, lots of Ks, and some walks.

Even then, I think we're being a little harsh on a guy who is a strong defensive catcher with one full year of minor league experience.

by beastball on Jan 14, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"somewhat better"

He's Mike Napoli with substantially better defense.

Everything I've seen is that he is a superb defender. Both his arm, his "game calling" (whatever that means), and behind the plate. Napoli is a poor defensive catcher; Teagarden could play in the majors right now just due to his defense.

If he ends up with Mike Napoli's bat and the defense of a Brian Schneider/Brad Ausmus, that is one of the 5-10 best catchers in baseball.

I wouldn't say he's got a spotty injury history. He had TJ surgery. That's it. Sure, while pitchers may take a while, he's had the surgery over a year ago, and at most, he may through 5-10 import times a game as opposed to a pitcher who throws 10x that amount. I'm not worried about his injury history.

He may not be a fantastic fantasy catcher, but I think that in 5-7 years time, he's going to be a top 5 most valuable catcher in baseball.

by Galt on Jan 14, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

age

First of all, let's recognize that this was Teagarden's FIRST full year as a pro. He's only appears old because he lost a year due to injury, so I have a hard time holding that against him.

be that as it may--he was older than the competition in A ball. i'd take his numbers there with a grain of salt even if they weren't cal-inflated. and why, exactly, are we supposed to think that his injury history is actually a point in his favor?

when he reached AA, his walk rate cratered but his K rate stayed sky-high. sure, he's got some power, but if he is really going to strike out in 1/3 of his AB against A+ and AA pitching, how is he ever going to make contact in the big leagues?

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A few things...

I use age v comp in conjunction with years service because age v comp is a measure of rate of development. In cases of 4 year graduates or injuries, strictly measuring age v comp can be deceiving. The thing people want to measure is rate of development, which can be used to derive a ceiling.

In Teagarden's case, I'm not using his injury as a plus, I'm just using it to nullify a perceived negative, which is different. I don't see his age v comp being a negative because his development was slowed by injury, not by lack of performance.

If a 4 year college catcher was drafted and posted that kinda year in the year after he was drafted, then he would be fairly highly rated. Especially if he was strong defensively.

Teagarden's walk rate may have cratered, but we're not talking a Delmon-esque crater, we're talking about going from 100+ walk pace to something closer to 60+, which is still a good walk rate.

And as I said, even ignoring his Cali performance, Teagarden seems to provide power, walks, fair average, and terrible Ks.

I agree, his K rate could indicate future struggles, without a doubt.

However he is only entering his second year of development, and if he could cut his K rate, then he could be a varitek-type. If he can't, then he could be a Tettleton or Napoli-type.

by beastball on Jan 14, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

development

i sometimes give people a break on ARL if they recently converted from hitting to pitching or vice versa, or if they used to be a multi-sport athlete and have only recently begun to focus exclusively on baseball. in those cases, older players can develop more quickly than you might expect given their age.

but for guys who are old because they were hurt, i don't think it makes sense not to dock them. the fact that teagarden is 24 now really does have a negative impact on how much better we can expect him to get (which, if he's going to be a starting catcher, has to be at least somewhat better particularly in terms of making contact). the fact that he's got an injury history has a further negative impact. the one does not negate the other.

teagarden is certainly an interesting prospect, and i'm enjoying this discussion. you're right that some of his markers are pretty positive, even taking age and context into account. i just think that the combination of poor ARL, hitter's parks, and crazy K rate (almost 40% in small sample at AA) are enough to scare me off from rating him 7 or better.

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's got his flaws...

that's for sure, and I put him down as a 7. The reasons why I put him there are simple, he shows good power and patience as a C with the defense to stick there.

His injury sounded more strange than worrisome. I don't expect it to have lingering affects.

His K rate is a concern, but again, he's only had one year of professional competition and instruction, so I expect to see gains in that area next year. While his growth may be limited by age, it doesn't mean he won't develop at all. Even age, raw guys, like Hamilton, benefit from instruction.

He's not that young, which is true, but check Varitek's history, and they're fairly close in terms of ARL. Do you give passes on ARL for hold-outs?

It's all individual in terms of how you look at ARL, I have to take injuries into consideration, especially if they don't appear chronic and shouldn't adversely impact performance, which Teagarden's shouldn't.

I do feel there's some sort of anti-Teagarden backlash on the site, not from you in particular, but just in general, and I don't get it. I think he's a top 5 catching prospect, who could see time in the majors this year. That seems like a 50-75 prospect to me.

by beastball on Jan 14, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Teagarden

Cal League illusion? If you've watched him play (no not just read boxes) you know that what he has done is to far exceed expectations at every level. Does the Cal league have expansive stats? Maybe, but he was in the top 10 of several offensive categories. The raw numbers don't matter, the fact that he ranked among the best does. Don't end your ranking by looking at offensive stats and box scores. He called every game for 3 years at Texas. He called every game at Spokane, Bakersfield and Frisco. He understands how to handle pitchers, call games, plays very solid D and his offensive abilities exceeded expectations at every level. Does that mean he will succeed in the MLB? No. But it makes him an excellent prospect and someone for Ranger fans to be excited about. He's a 9 and would be a 10 if he'd been injury free.

by Spock Shockers on Jan 14, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Response

He called every game at Spokane,

(caught 22 out of 31 games)

Bakersfield

(caught 30 out of 81 games)

and Frisco.

(caught 16 out of 29 games)

Just saying.

by mrkupe on Jan 14, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

response

it's nice that he's exceeded your expectations at every level. he's actually sort of exceeded mine, because when he was drafted i didn't think he'd hit at all. but that doesn't mean that what he's done (hitting well in bandboxes against kids that are younger than him, and while not having to worry about catching most of the time) makes him a top prospect.

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I actually gave him a 5.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 14, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

reply

Didn't exceed my expectations, I had none as I'm just a fan. He exceeded Ranger expectations and therefore participated in Arizona fall league,got invited to MLB spring training, and other indicators that the TRs think he is tracking rapidly to Arlington, even though the entire farm system is officially loaded at C.

As for the hitting, you can only hit what they are throwing at you and that he has done. Its always interesting to see who can keep hitting as pitching, scouting tendencies, etc. starts to kick in.

by Spock Shockers on Jan 14, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs