jr Towles analysis and stat predictions for 08

I just traded him for a package including AJax last night, so I hope you're right.

I tend to agree that he has a chance to be a top 5 NL catcher going forward.

Hopefully the Astros won't be compelled to bench him in favor of the "veteran" Ausmus too many times this year.

Shandler projects 281/336/430 with 10/8 HR/SB.  That would be pretty good for a rookie.    

I don't know that he'll put up numbers quite that good this season.  He could come close, but I don't know if he'll reach 15 HR (probably 10, but maybe not 15).  He'll likely catch 3 of 5 in the rotation this year, with Ausmus catching Oswalt and one other.  

For a comp, he's a Jason Kendall-type catcher (build and style), with more pop, less speed, and weaker plate discipline.  That doesn't mean Towles has bad plate discipline (I'd consider it fair), but he won't have a BB/K ratio over 1, either.  He's got good bat speed, but can be pull happy.  

Defensively, his strongest trait is his ability to call a game.  He's got a good, but not always accurate arm and a good pop time.  Ausmus says he's probably already one of the better receivers in the league.  Having Ausmus around should be a huge asset in his defensive development.

Just major stats

.272/.328/.421 w/ 7HR 43RBI and 8SB's in 116 games, splitting time with Ausmus at first then taking over most games post AS break

However most important thing will be that he will handle pitchers well, and will be ready for a breakout a few years later (2010?)

don't forget all this stuff. i'm about to put him in the next batch of community prospect ratings. which i guess i could do now.