Grade "B" pitchers - Rank them
The Congo Hammer has been doing a comparison in the same vein with his "bottom of the barrel" diaries which have been fun, but I wanted to compare a number of Grade "B" pitchers in terms of how their careers will pan out. In order to thin out the herd, I've selected first-year Grade "B" starting pitchers.
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18 comments
Comments
Hochevar
Don't know much about Jurrgens. I think I'd rank Liz as #2 given his upside, but might be a tad further away than Hoch.
by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 13, 2008 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My rankings
Sean Gallagher, Cubs - B
John Danks, Chisox - B+
Jair Jurrjens, Atl - B
Kyle Kendrick, Phi
Micah Owings, Ariz - B .
Billy Buckner, Ariz - B
Felipe Paulino, Hou - B
Jesse Litsch, Tor
Luke Hochevar, KC - B
Andy Sonnanstine, TB - C+
I take a chance on the guy with the highest ceiling first, he's got some control issues but he's always had them and he's typically been successful, if you look at his splits between his starting in the pros and being a reliever, you get a good sense about where his career might head..
From there I go safe, Sean Gallagher doesn't have the ceiling of an ace, but he'd be a weak two, strong three type pitcher. He's got an above average curveball to go with a good fastball, and made a large stride forward from a scouting standpoint with his mechanics and command.
At the bottom of the list, I have Sonnastine, I'm not sure how Sonnastine's 6-10, 5.85 ERA is considered "good" but John Danks's, 6-13, 5.50 is getting "hammered" but that's a side point for later discussion. Danks pitched well up until the all-star break, but fell apart after. I think he'll age well.
by cubsfan2883 on Jan 13, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
re:
by bobbymcnally on Jan 13, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Danks 'aging well'
by rothe on Jan 13, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
Danks-still very young, good stuff & odds of pulling it together
Owings - not too young but looks to be solid #3 for some time
Kendrick-think ERA will rise but still hover around 4
Hochevar - still think he can rebound to be good #3 starter
Jurrjens - think he can be underrated mid-rotation workhorse
Sonnanstine-think his periphs will decline but become avg in 2
yrs
Liz-I think he'll eventually move to pen but can be next Dotel
Litsch - think he will flame out quickly but be ok for a couple yrs
Gallagher - will need to improve k/bb to stick in majors
Paulino - don't think he'll ever be an impact major leaguer
Buckner - don't believe he'll ever succeed as a starter
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2008 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Order
Liz-high ceiling, high risk
Jurrjens-maybe not a high ceiling, but good likelihood
Paulino-great raw arm, but I have concerns of moving to pen-would be higher on talent alone, but comes with some risk
Gallagher-possible mid-rotation, but a good bet to at least stick at the back end
Buckner- a pretty decent bet to stick as a back-end SP, but I don't see much upside
by killa on Jan 13, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Litsch
Trading for Rolen definitely helps, but McDonald to Eckstein is definitely a defensive downgrade.
It all seems like smoke and mirrors to me, but he's proven me wrong so far. I just see a huge drop off for Litsch and Janssen next year, and to a lesser extent Marcum.
by GregJP on Jan 13, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
All Toronto pitchers are due for a decline
As for Litsch. He has no ability to strike out batters so he will always be inconsistent and a #5 at best.
by achengy on Jan 13, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Litsch
by RollingWave on Jan 14, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re: my rough order
Sean Gallagher, Chc - There's a couple others with slightly better upsides, but will they reach their potential? Gallagher seems a solid bet to be at least a solid 3, and as his change develops, he may get better. Durable and misses bats.
Jair Jurrjens, Atl - Close between Gallagher and Jurrjens, but at some point, all the talk about Jurrjens high end potential has to materialize in some form of production. You can't keep hoping for higher K rates and not seeing them.
Luke Hochevar, KC - The tools are there. Just a tad troubled by last year.
Micah Owings, Ari - I'm not sure what to think on Owings, to be honest.
Radhames Liz, Bal - You know ... there were some signs of progress last year, signs that might give hope that he could be better than Daniel Cabrera. Raw stuff is definitely up there.
Andy Sonnanstine, TB - I've never been a huge fan, but I do think that he's a guy that, if given the opportunity, will stick on a team's rotation.
John Danks, CHW - Maybe I'm biased. Never been that big a fan. Upside's better than Sonnanstine ... just not sold he can reach it.
Billy Buckner, Ari
Jesse Litsch, Tor
Kyle Kendrick, Phi
Felipe Paulino, Hou
by toonsterwu on Jan 13, 2008 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
slider and sinker
by doublestix on Jan 13, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
mine
Gallagher - CHC
Jurrjens - ATL
Owings - AZ
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.
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Sonnanstine - TB
Buckner - AZ
Paulino - HOU
Danks - CWS
Liz - BAL
Kendrick - PHI
Litsch - TOR
by doublestix on Jan 13, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
why is everyone listing kendrick so poorly
by znyfan on Jan 14, 2008 2:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
simple
owings is a much better bet to stay a productive MLB starter; i think kendrick goes the way of nate cornejo.
by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Danks...
I guess I could think of a few guys that never particularly dominated the minors but ended up doing so in the Majors (espically Curt Schilling ) but this doesn't seem like the most valid comp to Danks.
Maybe he could put it together. but it'll probably take awhile. certainly not good news for the Pale Hose in 08.
by RollingWave on Jan 14, 2008 8:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like Owings and Franklin Morales
Micah Owings and Franklin Morales looked like athletes on the mound and at the plate, like they really loved playing baseball. That's just one thing I can't tell from these other guys' numbers. So my list goes:
Morales
Owings
Hochevar
Danks
Liz (Yes, I'm a velocity hound. In fact, I refuse to release Daniel Cabrera).
Jurrjens
Kendrick (knows exactly what he has to do to not get hammered in Citizens Bank Park, has no disillusions about himself and some of his success is no doubt due to Jamie Moyer's mentorship)
Litsch
Sonnanstine
Buckner
Paulino
by smittybanton on Jan 16, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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