Grade "B" pitchers - Rank them

by The Colonel on Jan 13, 2008 11:49 AM EST Comment 18 comments

The Congo Hammer has been doing a comparison in the same vein with his "bottom of the barrel" diaries which have been fun, but I wanted to compare a number of Grade "B" pitchers in terms of how their careers will pan out. In order to thin out the herd, I've selected first-year Grade "B" starting pitchers.

Luke Hochevar, KC - B

Jair Jurrgens, Atl - B

Radhames Liz, Bal - B

Sean Gallagher, Cubs - B

Billy Buckner, Ariz - B

Felipe Paulino, Hou - B

Also added to the equation:

Micah Owings, Ariz - B last yr. Good #s.

Andy Sonnanstine, TB - C+ last yr. but pitched well in bigs.

John Danks, Chisox - B+ last yr. but got hammered

Kyle Kendrick, Phi - Where did this guy come from?

Jesse Litsch, Tor - C+ last yr. but I liked this guy's poise and GB rate as I saw him pitch a few times

Please rank these 11 guys with appropriate gaps between talent levels with emphasis on their future careers. Who do you like? Who do you not like? And, as always, any comments, thoughts or discussion would be greatly appreciated! Thanks!

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Comments

Hochevar

I have to believe that Hochevar has the best combination of ceiling and liklihood of reaching it out of this group. Wouldn't shock me a bit if he put it all together as early as 2008 and moved up into elite status.

Don't know much about Jurrgens. I think I'd rank Liz as #2 given his upside, but might be a tad further away than Hoch.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 13, 2008 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My rankings

Radhames Liz, Bal - B
Sean Gallagher, Cubs - B
John Danks, Chisox - B+
Jair Jurrjens, Atl - B
Kyle Kendrick, Phi
Micah Owings, Ariz - B .
Billy Buckner, Ariz - B
Felipe Paulino, Hou - B
Jesse Litsch, Tor
Luke Hochevar, KC - B
Andy Sonnanstine, TB - C+

I take a chance on the guy with the highest ceiling first, he's got some control issues but he's always had them and he's typically been successful, if you look at his splits between his starting in the pros and being a reliever, you get a good sense about where his career might head..

From there I go safe, Sean Gallagher doesn't have the ceiling of an ace, but he'd be a weak two, strong three type pitcher. He's got an above average curveball to go with a good fastball, and made a large stride forward from a scouting standpoint with his mechanics and command.

At the bottom of the list, I have Sonnastine, I'm not sure how Sonnastine's 6-10, 5.85 ERA is considered "good" but John Danks's, 6-13, 5.50 is getting "hammered" but that's a side point for later discussion. Danks pitched well up until the all-star break, but fell apart after. I think he'll age well.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 13, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re:

sonnanstine improved throughout the year, but danks was consistently hammered

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall

by bobbymcnally on Jan 13, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Danks 'aging well'

I think of the pitchers listed, he may actually be the surest thing on there. I see #3 starter beginning next year and if he ends up in a park that helps his little HR tendency, he could be really good.

by rothe on Jan 13, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

It's so tempting to just make a list of upside alone as opposed to combining it with the likelihood of fulfilling it. The age differences and possible role differences make this more challenging. Well, here goes nothing:

Danks-still very young, good stuff & odds of pulling it together

Owings - not too young but looks to be solid #3 for some time

Kendrick-think ERA will rise but still hover around 4

Hochevar - still think he can rebound to be good #3 starter

Jurrjens - think he can be underrated mid-rotation workhorse

Sonnanstine-think his periphs will decline but become avg in 2
yrs

Liz-I think he'll eventually move to pen but can be next Dotel

Litsch - think he will flame out quickly but be ok for a couple yrs

Gallagher - will need to improve k/bb to stick in majors

Paulino - don't think he'll ever be an impact major leaguer
Buckner - don't believe he'll ever succeed as a starter

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2008 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Order

Hochevar-good mix of decent ceiling and safety

Liz-high ceiling, high risk

Jurrjens-maybe not a high ceiling, but good likelihood

Paulino-great raw arm, but I have concerns of moving to pen-would be higher on talent alone, but comes with some risk

Gallagher-possible mid-rotation, but a good bet to at least stick at the back end

Buckner- a pretty decent bet to stick as a back-end SP, but I don't see much upside

by killa on Jan 13, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Liz

Is the next Daniel Cabrera

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 13, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Litsch

As a Jays fan (have watched all of his starts) I'm just not a believer.

Trading for Rolen definitely helps, but McDonald to Eckstein is definitely a defensive downgrade.

It all seems like smoke and mirrors to me, but he's proven me wrong so far. I just see a huge drop off for Litsch and Janssen next year, and to a lesser extent Marcum.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. George Carlin

by GregJP on Jan 13, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

All Toronto pitchers are due for a decline

Accardo, Janssen, Burnett, Marcum, Litsch, Downs etc. The pitching was phenomenal this year too bad we had holes in our bats.

As for Litsch. He has no ability to strike out batters so he will always be inconsistent and a #5 at best.

Go Jays!!!!

Allan's World Music

Bluebird Banter

by achengy on Jan 13, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Litsch

Well he is somehwat more GB oriented. and he does keep the walks down, i think he'll regress but will still have a decent shot to be a 4/5

by RollingWave on Jan 14, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: my rough order

my combo take on upside and ability to fulfill said upside

Sean Gallagher, Chc - There's a couple others with slightly better upsides, but will they reach their potential? Gallagher seems a solid bet to be at least a solid 3, and as his change develops, he may get better. Durable and misses bats.

Jair Jurrjens, Atl - Close between Gallagher and Jurrjens, but at some point, all the talk about Jurrjens high end potential has to materialize in some form of production. You can't keep hoping for higher K rates and not seeing them.

Luke Hochevar, KC - The tools are there. Just a tad troubled by last year.

Micah Owings, Ari - I'm not sure what to think on Owings, to be honest.

Radhames Liz, Bal - You know ... there were some signs of progress last year, signs that might give hope that he could be better than Daniel Cabrera. Raw stuff is definitely up there.

Andy Sonnanstine, TB - I've never been a huge fan, but I do think that he's a guy that, if given the opportunity, will stick on a team's rotation.

John Danks, CHW - Maybe I'm biased. Never been that big a fan. Upside's better than Sonnanstine ... just not sold he can reach it.

Billy Buckner, Ari
Jesse Litsch, Tor
Kyle Kendrick, Phi
Felipe Paulino, Hou

by toonsterwu on Jan 13, 2008 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dave, could you elaborate please?

by Sox Puppet on Jan 13, 2008 5:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

slider and sinker

He wasn't allowed to use those two pitches for a majority of the season. His slider was probably his best pitch, although the curve may have caught up after using it as his main out pitch this year.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 13, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mine

Hochevar - KC
Gallagher - CHC
Jurrjens - ATL
Owings - AZ
.
.
.
Sonnanstine - TB
Buckner - AZ
Paulino - HOU
Danks - CWS
Liz - BAL
Kendrick - PHI
Litsch - TOR

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 13, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

why is everyone listing kendrick so poorly

after he had a pretty decent year last year in the majors and has made such steady progress of late? Owings and Kendrick both showed the ability to be very solid MLB pitchers last year (at worst #3 starters on most teams). I dont get why they are being placed below guys whose upside is a 2 or 3 starter and hasnt broken in yet...

by znyfan on Jan 14, 2008 2:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

simple

kendrick has an unsustainably low K rate. it's one thing to limit walks and HRs and survive on 6 or 7 K/9; but 3.5 K/9 is another matter entirely. carlos silva is the only guy with a K rate that low to stay in a rotation, and his walk rate is half of kendrick's. not to mention he's taken his lumps, too.

owings is a much better bet to stay a productive MLB starter; i think kendrick goes the way of nate cornejo.

by jpahk on Jan 14, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Danks...

I'm rather pessmistic... at least in the comming few years.. the walk problem been around forever. and he's never been able to dominate at any particular level...

I guess I could think of a few guys that never particularly dominated the minors but ended up doing so in the Majors (espically Curt Schilling ) but this doesn't seem like the most valid comp to Danks.

Maybe he could put it together. but it'll probably take awhile. certainly not good news for the Pale Hose in 08.

by RollingWave on Jan 14, 2008 8:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like Owings and Franklin Morales

I think Morales was a B or B+ prospect. Anyway:

Micah Owings and Franklin Morales looked like athletes on the mound and at the plate, like they really loved playing baseball. That's just one thing I can't tell from these other guys' numbers. So my list goes:

Morales
Owings
Hochevar
Danks
Liz (Yes, I'm a velocity hound. In fact, I refuse to release Daniel Cabrera).
Jurrjens
Kendrick (knows exactly what he has to do to not get hammered in Citizens Bank Park, has no disillusions about himself and some of his success is no doubt due to Jamie Moyer's mentorship)
Litsch
Sonnanstine
Buckner
Paulino

by smittybanton on Jan 16, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs