Tampa Bay Devil Rays Top 20 Prospects for 2008

Changing

the name from Devil Rays to Rays sucks...

by BlackOps on Jan 10, 2008 12:19 PM EST reply actions

but surprisingly enough I actually like the new logo. I suppose it's kind of neat that they are trying to leave the last decade in which the never won more than 70 games behind and look forward into the future with "Rays" of hope. We will see how the team performs and if the fans buy into it soon enough.

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

amazing system...

An amazing system for sure, but I am curious as to your ranking for Wade Davis. I was honestly expecting an A-, especially considering he is a consensus top 20 prospect. So is Davis pretty equal to Brett Cecil? I don't see it, but I trust your rankings.

A boatload of talent, jeez.

http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/

by koolkerns101 on Jan 10, 2008 12:21 PM EST reply actions

Nice

I like the grades of guys #1-5, and even the exact sequence in which they're laid out. Also, Jennings at a B+.

The grade for Hellickson surprised me, though - I didn't think his pitches grade out that high, and his performance in A, while strong, was a big dropoff from A- in 2006. What's his repertoire, and does his dropoff in 2007 hide some gains made with his pitches? Otherwise, it seems like he'd be a B.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 10, 2008 12:22 PM EST reply actions

McGee

Didn't see he had a straight A. Hmmm....seems like he's more an A-, which would also be in keeping a little more with his comparison to Davis - there's not THAT much separating them, is there?

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 10, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

what's the difference between McGee and Davis?

about 7 miles an hour ;)

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

Sources?

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

I'd say three things separate them for me...

and the separation isn't that great...

I believe McGee's velocity is a little more than Davis, which isn't a big deal until you factor in that McGee is a lefty, which makes this a difference maker in and of itself.

But, for me, the big worry I have about Davis, and why I bump him down, is his late season velocity drop the last two years. It's good that it may not be an injury, but it's bad that it's happened twice now. And once it happens, his performance seriously tanks. So I don't know what it means, maybe he can't be a starter? Maybe he doesn't work hard enough on conditioning? I dunno, but it's a problem, that seems regular and makes me wonder how he would possibly hold up to a 200 ip workload.

by beastball on Jan 10, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

Hellickson

BA said:

Low 90's FB that touches 95
Curve (potential plus pitch)
Changup (needs work)

Said he tries to emulate Maddux but has more "electric stuff" than Maddux but lacks durability.

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

Josh Luck and Stephen Vogt

Curious what sort of grades they got? Both were drafted in '07 (Luck #605 and Vogt #365) and played very well in their small samples. Thanks John, looking forward to the rest of the top 20's and the book.

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions

Joel Guzman

Hahahahaahha

by kennythered on Jan 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST reply actions

Morlan will be a stud.....

I think that he might be the most under the radar prospect in baseball right now. I can see him being the next Marmol. Really aggressive grading John.

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions

Bummed

Morlan is the guy I was most disappointed to see go in the Young/Garza trade. Sure, Garza's better, but you have to give talent to get talent. So I figured that Garza (and Bartlett) was the price to give up in order to get Young. But Morlan is one of the Twins' prospects I figured most people would never have heard of when he came up and performed exceptionally well. I think the Rays were smart to get Morlan in the deal.

by Jaerbesan on Jan 10, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

some system

and they have the #1 pick this year... again. with this talent they've got to be good one of these years, right?... maybe...

by Travis G on Jan 10, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions

dilema

with the #1 pick do they take Pedro Alverez, the consensus top bat even though they have Longoria? Do they make a "need" pick and go with Beckham to fill the void at SS?

One thing is for sure, they could be in an enviable position soon

by ScottAZ on Jan 10, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

Well you hope they take the best talent.

They have Brignac at SS as well and they can always DH Alvarez. I personally love Smoak and his swing. I can't believe some people say he wont go top 5 even though a mock draft now doesn't mean anything.

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball draft

Always take the best affordable talent available. If Alvarez's stock doesn't drop over the course of the next year, I'll be miffed if they don't take him. Even if someone else comes on like gangbusters, Alvarez looks like about the best college hitting prospect since who-knows-when (maybe Pete Incaviglia?). Besides, by the time he's ready for the majors, there's a good chance that Pena would be gone. Alvarez's arm is erratic enough that moving him to 1B might be the best long-term move anyway.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 10, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Other differences

Davis also has better command and a deeper arsenal. Some scouts worry that McGee won't be able to develop an effective third pitch and will end up in the pen, while Davis has 3 above average pitches and a servicable 4th. I still like McGee a touch better than Davis, but IMHO Davis should be an A- and McGee an A.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Jan 10, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions

hmmm

Davis, Price and McGee should all be A-. I like Davis more than McGee at this point.

by phuturephillies on Jan 10, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions

I disagree

I like Price at the A level. I think he could certainly be put up amongst the top pitching prospects in the league. I think Davis and McGee could be put at an A-, but ranking McGee ahead of Davis makes more sense, especially because of his left-handedness. Both are sensational prospects, but I'd probably put McGee at an A- and Davis at a B+, fringe A- prospect.

by jullberg on Jan 10, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

well

I'd never give a straight A to a player who hasn't thrown a single pro pitch. I like Davis more than McGee because Davis has a big fastball like McGee, but he is more polished and has better secondary pitches. McGee's lefthandedness is great, but I'll take the guy with better control/command and better secondary offerings.

by phuturephillies on Jan 10, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Agree...

with your Price opinion. I don't think I could give a straight A to any player who has not seen any action in the minors or majors since being drafted. But that's just me. It's John's book and he can grade people as he sees fit.

John, I was wondering how often you have given straight As to players who just recently signed (from college or high school) whether they made any appearances or not?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 10, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

I can't find any other

Examples of guys who got A straight out of the draft...

by Dfarth on Jan 10, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

McGee vs. Kershaw

While it is tempting to compare McGee to Davis for obvious reasons (and, to state the obvious, that is because they have been teammates for all but a few weeks of their professional careers), perhaps it is more reasonable to compare McGee to Kershaw, who is also a hard-throwing lefty with a plus curve with good results in challenging assignments who needs to improve control. There really are more similarities between Kershaw and McGee than between Davis and McGee. John gave Kershaw an A grade.

Admittedly, that does not get us anywhere regarding Davis' grade, or Davis' grade relative to McGee's, but I think that a good argument can be made based on stats alone that McGee should equal Kershaw. I have not seen either pitch. Perhaps a lower grade for Davis is justified on the basis that his stats are not quite as dominant as those of McGee.

Righties that John has ranked so far that are somewhat similar to Davis (though not perfect, or perhaps even good comps) in that they have two years of relatively good performance, and are right-handed with a moderate amount of K's include Cueto (A-), Adenhart (B+) and Hurley (B+). With those grades, it seems fair to say that Davis might be little less than Cueto but better than Adenhart and Hurley, and still merit a B+.

All of which is simply to say that I don't see anything unreasonable or internally inconsistent with ranking McGee as an A and/or Davis as a B+, and reasonable people can disagree on these grades.

by Mario66 on Jan 10, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

Davis

I think Davis and Cueto are basically the same prospect to me in terms of my valuations. I think both are solid A- guys. I'd rather have Davis than Hurley and Adenhart, and I'm an owner of the latter two in my dynasty league that is often discussed here by wily mo.

by phuturephillies on Jan 10, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

Correction

Reference to McGee's off-speed pitch should be to a slider, not a curve.

by Mario66 on Jan 10, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Close to the same pitch

The pitch I've seen him throw isn't a slider. His offspeed pitch is a curve as far as I can tell. I've seen him pitch more than once and it's always been called a curve by announcers. It sure looks like a curve. It's just semantics really. If it is a slider, it's a slow slider in the low 80's.

by Tyler on Jan 10, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Also

about 7 miles an hour ;)

This is also not true. Just yesterday BA published the scouting reports for Davis and McGee:

Davis FB 92-94 and touches 96
McGee FB 93-95 and touches 98

The only major difference I've understood between their fastballs is that McGee gets a little more movement.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Jan 10, 2008 1:16 PM EST reply actions

I know BA hasn't reported it

and there's no reason to believe little old me, but a certain Montgomery Biscuits radio broadcaster told the Rays board that McGee has touched 100. McGee is consistently 2 - 3 mph faster, and his curve is a great breaking pitch when it's on (a real knee-buckler), but Davis' velocity is nothing to shake a stick at either, and his command is much better than McGee's at this point.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 10, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

RE: I know BA hasn't reported it

I believe McGee "officially" touched 98, but the broadcaster reported that the radar gun at Riverwalk Stadium is notoriously 1-2 MPH slow.

http://tbfutureconsiderations.blogspot.com - A Rays Prospect Blog

by KGengler on Jan 10, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

BA

i also saw that BA reported his "slider has good tilt", which was news to me seeing i didn't know he threw one......i've always seen him reported as a 3 pitch pitcher - FB,CU,CV.....starting to wonder about this info

by Wheelhouse on Jan 10, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, well I exaggerated

But I had previously heard (can't remember from where) Davis as 90-92 and touching 93. Perhaps that was during his late-season velocity drop. But even with BA's report, McGee being a lefty makes the velocity difference between the two significant since there are so few lefties who can dial it up that high (and most of the ones who can are dominant (ex. Kershaw, Kazmir, Liriano)

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

Disagree with a couple

Davis should be an A- IMO. Fernando Perez should be a B- after having a great season in AA. Ruggiano was a B last year, and had a monster year but he moved down? If Ruggiano was on any other team, he'd be in the majors starting. I like Barnese but Gibson has pitched in a level higher and he's left handed. I would have thought Barnese was the C+ and Gibson would be a B-. I could see why Barnese is higher, he has better stuff but Gibson pitched well in a higher level, and he's lefthanded.

by raysfan1988 on Jan 10, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions

John, how many

...of these other prospects are C+?

by parish on Jan 10, 2008 2:51 PM EST reply actions

The Rays gotta move

so they can hold onto these guy and reel in some income. I really think that the AL need more good teams than the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Indians & Angels. Not enough competition among all of the teams.

BTW, I agree that Price slightly tops McGee.

by METSMETSMETS on Jan 10, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions

Guzman

in March of 2005, John wrote:

Guzman looks like a potential Miguel Cabrera to me. There is some risk there due to his mediocre plate discipline, but the improvement in his overall numbers last year was marked, and he did extremely well in the Southern League for a 19-year-old. Billingsley is another prodigy. He needs sharper command, but again we're talking about a guy who acquitted himself well in Double-A at age 20.

interesting!

by LipstickOnDipstick on Jan 10, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions

yeah

Everyone was saying this. What's your point?

Manny Parra is my favorite pitcher.

by PujolsJunkie on Jan 10, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Fernando Perez

Is rated two rungs too low IMO. He's a solid B.

Not sure how a guy can have the speed and athleticism that Perez has, AND the on-base skills, and get a C+.

Everything else looks good.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 10, 2008 3:51 PM EST reply actions

not much of a stick

you don't want him getting more than 200 ABs. He's really just a slapper w/ speed. He uses what he has well though, hits the ball on the ground a lot. At MLB level that high BABIP will drop quite a bit. I like him but he's a 4th OF on most good teams. Excellent defender too.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

I was confused by Ballew's comment here

in the BA chat - something similar, saying his power is nonexistent. He hit 42 XBHs last year. His IsoS was around .180. He hit 8 HRs and 10 triples, in less than 400 ABs. You can't do that if you have no power. He had a .900 OPS in a pitcher's league in AA. I realize he'd never performed that well before, but considering that he was focused primarily on academics before getting drafted, I don't think it's out of the question that the improvement is real. Also, don't forget that he was just learning how to switch hit in 2006, and he really got the hang of it in 2007, which helped out his hitting a lot as well.

Personally, I have Perez ranked ahead of Brignac in the system (8 vs 9), but I know I'm in the minority in having Perez that high and Brignac that low. If anyone's going to have trouble hitting in the majors, I feel like it's Brignac, who I think might become a Mark Bellhorn type hitter. Perez should at worst be a Dave Roberts type hitter, which isn't bad when you play plus CF and have 75 speed.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 10, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

true - good pts

his numbers are certainly trending in the right direction, but I think he is what he is at this point, not much projection wise. As loathe as I am to admit it I have been wrong before; I'd be ecstatic if he turns into Roberts.

I'm not sold on Brignac myself but I always try to cut some slack for injuries, plus of those whose judgments I do trust, most all of them love the kid. We'll know for sure after '08.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

My rankings

David Price - A (comparable to Kershaw)
Wade Davis A- ( comparable to Cueto)
Jacob McGee A-/B+

I don't see how McGee is that loved, yes he's got a shit ton of velocity, yes he happens to be abnormal when it comes to dexterity, but there are plenty of guys who throw just as hard as he in the lower minors. I'd like to see him improve his secondary stuff and his command before I call him an A straight A.

Just my own two cents, Brickhaus, and Andrew Friedman are both experts on the TB system so I'll differ to them.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 10, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions

and by differ I meant defer..

ouch

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 10, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

Well, remember...

when John did a head-to-head with Kershaw and McGee, he said Kershaw won by just a tad, which was due to age.

I think the weakness of McGee's secondary stuff is overblown. He's a lefty who throws in the mid-90s, who improved his control from last year without losing his strikeouts. And that is very rare, and that's why I think he gets an A over a B+, and I think the fact he's a left is why he's over Davis.

by beastball on Jan 10, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

just watch McGee pitch

his f/b is incredible, wouldn't shock me if he could hit 100 with it. I haven't seen a LHP throw this hard this consistently since Billy Wagner. Plus he controls it well. He could probably be a closer with the stuff he has right now. And since Kazmir & Price are more "polished" I wish TB would consider it. Hell even BA projected him as their closer in 2011. He has a nice curve but doesn't control it as well. Same for the c-up, neither pitch is bad but his f/b when spotted is almost unhittable for lefties and bites in hard on righties, enough they have trouble getting around on him.

Davis's f/b has nice velocity, and he's a big guy so it comes in on a downward plane but its nothing like McGee's. His just explodes at the plate (ala Zumaya). Davis is ahead of McGee on the secondary stuff but not by much; mainly he seems to be able to rely on his more than McGee. McGee won't throw his as much because he knows the batter can't catch up to his heat. Obviously that train of thought will hurt him in MLB level, and hopefully he understands this. If he doesn't, then he's a closer pure & simple. Both should have very successful careers barring injuries.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

Again

there are plenty of leftys that throw hard. There are plenty of pitchers that throw hard.. Throwing hard isn't exactly special. His velocity is top notch, great.. but having top notch velocity doesn't make you a better pitcher just because you throw harder than they do. But that's my own personal bias, I like Davis's long term more than I like McGee's that said, McGee could take a huge step forward this year and prove me wrong, he's still rough around the edges, Davis has a bit more polish on his overall game and that's why I'd take Davis over McGee.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 10, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

Name 10

Name 10 lefties who can throw 98 right now, at any level. I can't. I can maybe name 4, including Kershaw and McGee (I'm not counting Liriano simply because who knwos what his velocity will be like after missing over a year).

There really aren't that many lefties who throw hard. At least not THAT hard.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 10, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I was going to post the same thing. There are many more right handed pitchers who pitch in Davis' range than lefties who pitch in McGee's range.

Hell, even including the majors, I can't think of more than a handful of lefty starters with that kinda stuff, if that.

by beastball on Jan 10, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

don't think that's cubsfans point

or, arguing along his lines, in any case, yes, mcgee has a terrific fastball and that, in and of itself, is enough to make him a top prospect.

but at the ML level it's only enough to make him a good reliever.

there are lots and lots of pitchers with a terrific fastball who never developed the secondary pitches that would allow them to be plus starting pitchers. when mcgee has those, then he's an "A" prospect in my book. for now, I'll take Davis as an A- over him: his fastball may may be quite as good, but he HAS developed secondary pitches, and that's essential. it's nice but not special that McGee's fastball blows away A ball hitters: but he'll need a lot more down the road.

I agree that, to me, McGee is A-/B+

by scooter on Jan 11, 2008 1:56 AM EST up reply actions

McGee's stuff

(curve & c-up) are just as good as anything Davis throws - but McGee won't use them (as much as he should) because his f/b is so effective. He has a tendency to rely a bit too much on his heat. I did a lousy job of saying this earlier. Obviously he needs to use his other pitches more so he develop. They're both passable offerings right now, and I agree - he won't be an effective SP until he can fully utilize his offspeed pitches.

But because his f/b is so powerful I really think TB should consider using him as a closer. But they may be thinking a few yrs ahead, and hedging their bets against an eventual Kazmir trade. Keeping McGee in the rotation gives them two power lefties (w/ Price).

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 11, 2008 8:18 AM EST up reply actions

Lefties who will also hit 98

Billy Wagner
CC Sabathia

Fat man, is no more Hinges burst off Heaven's Door Come on in, says Bill

by KABOOM @ Minor League Ball on Jan 11, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

Kind of my point

The lefties I can think of who can hit 98:

Billy Wagner
CC Sabathia (very rarely)
Scott Kazmir (not lately)
Francisco Liriano (before surgery)
Franklin Morales
Clayton Kershaw
Jake McGee
Maybe David Price (I've seen it reported, but never by a reputable source)

Point is that there aren't too many of them, and it's even rarer that a lefty who has enough control to make the majors and can throw that hard sucks. I can't think of a crappy lefty with crazy velocity.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

Tom Martin

by Sox Puppet on Jan 12, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions

price

what's the deal with his velocity, really? it seems like you see everything from 90 to 99.

by wily mo on Jan 12, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

Andy Sisco sucks.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 12, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

With McGee

it's more than velocity. His fastball is easily an 80 pitch. As has previously been stated, it absolutely explodes out of his hand. It's got great movement and he have above-average command of it(not just control, he locates it).

There are plenty of guys with great velocity that don't have good command, or it's straight. That's not the case at all with Jake. Edwin Jackson he's not. They have about the same velocity, I've watch both pitch multiple times and the difference in the fastball is easy to see.

And as Brick said, it is rare. There aren't 15 guys in the world that have Jakes velocity and throw with their left hand.

by Tyler on Jan 10, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

pitcher grades

price A-
davis A-
mcgee A-
niemann B
hellickson B
morlan B

the hitters look okay, except that brignac is a B-, not a B+.

by jpahk on Jan 10, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions

so...

is the difference between mcgee/davis and niemann essentially that niemann's had surgery? i know he's older, but he's not old. and he could/should be up this year.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Jan 10, 2008 4:44 PM EST reply actions

Surgery, old, stuff

(a) Niemann's stuff isn't what it was in college

(b) he's been injured and unable to stay healthy until this year

(c) He IS old (he'll be 25 by opening day)

(d) He's never really been able to dominate in the minors, so there's no expectation that he'd be able to do so in the majors (while McGee and Davis have dominated in the minors for the past couple years).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 10, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

More

I've been Niemann's biggest fan, but he's regressed.

His fastball is still fast, but is also straight and his delivery lacks deception. He can touch 98, but sits in the 90-95 range instead of the 93-96 touching 100 it used to (where Mcgee's fastball is right now).

Curve is a plus pitch, but his slider, which was an 80 pitch in college is now a 50-55. So his secondary stuff has gotten worse by a significant margin.

No change, throws a splitter as his change, but it's fringy. Still needs developing.

by Tyler on Jan 10, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

not so sure about him

Niemann was sitting at 95 mph his last 4 starts, and hitting 98. He was dominant in those. Much quicker than before, back to his collegiate days. Maybe now he's finally healthy??? So ... what to make of it? He's a really big guy physically, most likely he's always going to be an injury risk and would be better off plying his wares as a set-up or closer. But it wouldn't surprise me to see him jump out of the gate this Spring and take off ala Shields last season. I think he's vastly underrated right now.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Another thing

I don't put a whole lot of stock in this and it's not a huge negative, but it's worth mentioning as it could affect the defense. He's painful to watch. The slowest worker I've ever seen (hyperbolic maybe, but he's close). Takes forever in between pitches.

by Tyler on Jan 10, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

it is a negative; but to me he looked like a totally different pitcher the last month of the season. He just attacked batters rather than try to hit spots as before. I think (or maybe I am just hoping) that he is healthy for the 1st time in yrs.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

Neimann

His stuff is a cut below all 3 of their elite pitching prospects. I think he's a 4/5 as a starter or an 8th inning guy, maybe a good closer.

by phuturephillies on Jan 10, 2008 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Wow...

When your 'worst' prospect in someones top 20 is a 934 OPS 23 year old out fielder, that is lethal.

However, I am curious why this team did not make a run at Harden or why we do not hear about them as players for Bedard, Santana, etc? I can understand Santana, but a starting four of Bedard, Kazmir, Shields and Garza for 08 and 09 would be incredible!

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 10, 2008 5:19 PM EST reply actions

Because they wont be able to afford them.

Maybe at first but not for long and they seem to have a ton of confidence in their personal to make good decisions. Perhaps when the new stadium arrives and/or their fans start going to the park they could make such a deal but I look at it as counter productive for them to trade their youth for established players in their situation.

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

On Bedard

The Orioles NEVER trade anyone good in the division - Peter Angelos' dicta - so that would have been out of the question.

I'm honestly not sure why the Rays didn't go after Haren. Maybe they think he's not that different from Shields. I would have thought a package headlined by McGee or Davis plus a few lower prospects might have done the trick. But I'm pretty confident the front office has a plan on this. I'm guessing it just would have been too far outside their budget (unfortunately).

Pedroza's a DH more than an OF. I actually have him lower than 20th. To me, his upside seems like Russ Branyan without the ability to play defense. He mashes righties, but doesn't do much else, and strikes out a ton.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 10, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

So you must be a D-Rays fan from your posts.

Don't see those around to often! :D

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Pedroza

any thoughts as to why his plate discipline disappeared last season? He looked great in '06. I know his splits are tilted towards the one side but if he did it once he should be able to own it.

agree on Haren - they've got basically the same pitcher (Shields) and much cheaper for more yrs - they would be foolish to chase any FAs until CC's deal is about up.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Pedroza's Plate Discipline

It returned when they stopped trying to play Pedroza as a catcher. Check his monthly splits - it was still lower than last year, but the position change probably had something to do plate discipline.

I don't understand the Branyon comparison at all - I was thinking Cust:

4 options at every at bat: BB, K, 2B, HR

by gunkdog on Jan 11, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

Cust works fine

but his splits aren't as extreme as Branyan or Pedroza. Point remains pretty much the same though, he's a three true outcomes hitter who can't field a position. Those types usually don't get much of a chance in the majors, especially when they can't hit lefties at all.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

lower level players

I don't get to see a lot of them - what kind of players are Kyeong Kang, Reid Fronk and Joe Cruz? Any opinions, comps? I know about Barnese, he looks very solid, nice hard sink to his stuff.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 6:16 PM EST reply actions

reid fronk

that is an awesome name. i mean, fronk? yes, please.

by jpahk on Jan 10, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

Jaso over Riggans

the more I look at Jaso the more I like; I know they have Riggans at AAA and just signed DiFelice (for some unknown reason to me) but I think Jaso is ready for MLB. I don't believe Navarro needs any "mentoring" at this point.

Jaso has better K and BB ratios than Riggans, his numbers across the board are not bad at all. Plus he is more than adequate on D, and has more power than Riggans or Mike D. Any thoughts?

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Jan 10, 2008 6:36 PM EST reply actions

Maybe they want to try and get Jaso

some innings behind the plate. I agree with most of what you said and that is all I can think of since most places seem to say he needs work defensively.

by jfish26101 on Jan 10, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions

Subject:

just signed DiFelice (for some unknown reason to me)

Somebody has to catch the pitchers in spring training.

Jaso hasn't played at all in AAA yet so they'll want him to get some time there first. Riggans isn't particularly relevant anyway though, he's just a backup in the majors and he can't stay healthy. If the Rays want Jaso in the majors at any point Riggans isn't going to be in the way.

by Jim Wisinski on Jan 10, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

Bold Prediction

The Tampa-Bay Rays will win the world series in 2011!

SteveHoffmanSlowey

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 10, 2008 11:06 PM EST reply actions

Josh Butler

Anybody seen him pitch, or have a rough scouting report on him? I hear he has electric stuff.

by kiloman on Jan 11, 2008 12:20 AM EST reply actions

not since

i faced him when i was a sophomore in high school and he was a senior...i can vouch that he had electric stuff then at least, and i know he had a great career at USD...

by flipgatey3 on Jan 11, 2008 2:30 AM EST up reply actions

Trying to think...

has John ever given one organization 3 straight A grades in one year? For that matter, it's really unusual to even see 2!

This is one scary group of players, especially considering the young guys on the MLB roster (like BJ) who aren't even considered for this. I would have kept Delmon myself, but you can't argue with these results as far as scouting and drafting this kind of premium talent.

by jc3 on Jan 11, 2008 10:59 AM EST reply actions

Kind if interested in Brignac's grade ...

I know he's one of those "talked-to-death" prospects, but I recall John really defending him saying he expected Brignac to really pick it up again next season or something ... am I mental? I know his BAIBP just SUCKED but who knows ...

Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Jan 11, 2008 11:26 AM EST reply actions