the thread for dredging up old predictions
In a John Buck thread nearly four months ago, Uncle Charlie said
"Does anyone know how to tag posts like this for future reference? I don't have a position one way or another on Buck, but there have been a few of these sorts of predictions (some of Dr.B.'s glowing comments on Russ Ortiz and Zito spring to mind, as does Shamus's comment on--I think--Hirsh).
I think it would be fun to collect these somewhere."
So here's a thread for pulling up old predictions and gloating or shaming.
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by the way
"John Buck's OPS will be less than .850 by the end of the season."
"If I had to predict, I'd say between .740 and .790. I have no faith."
Here are ajohnst01's
"I think it'll be at least over .800, and if you hold me to it, I'll take OVER .850. As long as we don't have any money riding on it ;)"
Current OPS: .788
http://minorleagueball.com/story/2007/5/23/211444/487
To be fair
hey
Ya know
Dustin Pedroia
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/7/13/191642/661
sorry - incorrect link
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/3/1/171547/6248/29#29
Yeah, I was down on him, for sure...
His XBH hit rate is still weak, sitting at around 29%, but I can't argue the fact that he's been one of the best 2b in the AL this year. If he holds that average, then he'll be fine. If it slips, then he'll realize the Eckstien-Grudzi comps that have been thrown around.
But it does appear, at this stage of the game, I was certainly wrong about him.
"Again?"
But yes, even if it's not in black and white, I did not expect Pedroia to OPS at .850 while playing solid defense at 2B. Kudos to the Sox for sticking him in at 2B and letting him fight through a rough April.
Although I really based my Pedroia opinion on others's views, and was far from the leader on this bandwagon. Also, while he's been solid, I wonder how much pub Pedroia would get if he played somehwere else? After all, no one's talking about Kelly Johnson, who's outhitting Pedroia, in a tougher offensive environment.
Also,
To be fair, I was also pretty negative on Ian Stewart and Maybin since I've been here (last June) while being positive on Gallardo, Bruce, and (especially) Rasmus in the same time.
test
dammit!
Ok, I got it
I guess now's a good time to bring this up.
I will eat my shorts.
by Shamus on Sat Dec 02, 2006 at 12:19:16 AM CDT
by greg456 @ Minor League Ball on Sep 9, 2007 4:26 PM EDT reply actions
Don't suppose
see
I like this one...
Don't forget about Chris Young, he will turn it around.
My sleeper is Ryan Braun, I have a feeling that he will come up soon and go all Francoeur circa 2005 on the NL.
by uga007 on Sun Apr 22, 2007 at 04:17:14 PM CDT
by uga007 on Sep 9, 2007 5:29 PM EDT reply actions
Gloating, eating crow
I was really optimistic on Michael Bowden, and I think I'm still in the right direction. He ended up with weak numbers in AA, but given his age and the fact that he went through stretched where he was very very good, I'm still optimistic.
I was down on Joba for health reasons, but I didn't expect him to pitch this well when healthy
I loved Braun and Gallardo, I was down on Andrew Miller
I saw really good things for Delmon Young, but I guess it's foolish to expect big power numbers for A) a Young kid and B) a free-swinger
I'm sure there are others I'll think of later, these are the ones that stand out
Here's a good one:
by Vaux on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 01:50:59 PM CDT
Some
Edwin Jackson (presuming he doesn't continue to improve)
Casey Kotchman (same)
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Ervin Santana
Mark Reynolds
guys I appear to have been wrong on:
Ian Stewart
Wes Bankston (VERY wrong)
Brian Dopirak (ditto)
Nick Markakis
Evan Longoria
Justin Verlander
Funny
Brick
Maybe
Great diary idea. ;-)
In a diary on whether Jeter or Hafner was a better keeper, I took Pronk and said:
"Pronk, meanwhile, is 29 and still getting better due to his late start. His OPS is still trending upwards."
Oops. At least, though, I put my money where my mouth was...Haf dragged my fantasy team out of first this year.
[Kudos to limozeen for taking the other side of the argument.]
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/1/31/940/89388/10#10
And here's the Russ Ortiz one mentioned by the OP that I (along with others) was right on:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/3/11/213320/400/12#12
One more to end on, where everybody was sorta right and sorta wrong on Alou. He did give (to date) the .900 OPS some expected, but only over a handful of games:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2006/11/22/12159/564/8#8
let's do a few.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/1/30/112011/204/84#84
89 Hank Conger - ok.
90 Cedric Hunter - bad so far.
91 Alexi Casilla - eh.
92 Kurt Suzuki - good, in that he's a big leaguer.
93 Mark Reynolds - ditto.
94 Mitch Talbot - meh.
95 Kyle Drabek - bad.
96 Brent Lillibridge - ok.
97 Lars Anderson - good.
98 John Mayberry Jr - meh.
99 Blake DeWitt - meh.
100 Tony Butler - ok. largely unchanged - good potential, still a high school pitcher.
so, three that i'd call clear hits (suzuki, reynolds, lars). three that are probably still in the same range, so not great picks but not crazy (conger, lillibridge, butler). and six blahs (hunter, casilla, talbot, drabek, mayberry, dewitt). so 50%, more or less. how are those odds? i'm not sure.
some good old-fashioned guerra arguments
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/1/29/02739/1709
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/1/24/153025/305/14#14
no real payoff yet on this whole guerra thing.

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