the thread for dredging up old predictions

by limozeen on Sep 9, 2007 5:31 AM EDT Comment 35 comments

In a John Buck thread nearly four months ago, Uncle Charlie said

"Does anyone know how to tag posts like this for future reference? I don't have a position one way or another on Buck, but there have been a few of these sorts of predictions (some of Dr.B.'s glowing comments on Russ Ortiz and Zito spring to mind, as does Shamus's comment on--I think--Hirsh).

I think it would be fun to collect these somewhere."

So here's a thread for pulling up old predictions and gloating or shaming.

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by the way

Here are my predictions on John Buck:
"John Buck's OPS will be less than .850 by the end of the season."
"If I had to predict, I'd say between .740 and .790. I have no faith."

Here are ajohnst01's
"I think it'll be at least over .800, and if you hold me to it, I'll take OVER .850. As long as we don't have any money riding on it ;)"

Current OPS: .788
http://minorleagueball.com/story/2007/5/23/211444/487

by limozeen on Sep 9, 2007 5:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

The day the coaches took away his leg kick, he went down the tubes. Chalk this up as another idiotic move by Buddy Bell (one of millions).

by doublestix on Sep 9, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey

until John Buck can prove his veteran leadership skills among other things that just don't show up in box scores, hes going to be splitting PT LaRue. And if there were no such things as stats, we just might declare Jason LaRue the best player in the game.

by wildthang on Sep 9, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nick Punto

Has more VP than JaRue

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Sep 9, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya know

what would be nice is a better search engine. Instead of being able to just search for "John Buck" - you would be able to search for him with an additional filter of a user name so you could find all things John Buck that were posted by a single poster.

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Sep 9, 2007 5:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeh, im kinda really lazy

...so i'll just say that I predicted BOSSMAN would be boss...

by daveh33 on Sep 9, 2007 6:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

great idea

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/4/5/193428/4495/81#81

by Wheelhouse on Sep 9, 2007 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

heh

I think my fantasy team's ERA is about .20 higher than it should be because of Patterson. Obviously he was pitching hurt.

by limozeen on Sep 9, 2007 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dustin Pedroia

A lot of people were down on this kid pre-season - hate to pick on Uncle Charlie again - but I believe he was in the hater camp as well (he's not included in this link tho...)

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/7/13/191642/661

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Sep 9, 2007 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sorry - incorrect link

this is what I was referring to...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/3/1/171547/6248/29#29

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Sep 9, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I was down on him, for sure...

His XBH rate was declining as he faced tougher comp, and if I remember correctly, his walk rate also suffered. He seemed like a guy living on average.

His XBH hit rate is still weak, sitting at around 29%, but I can't argue the fact that he's been one of the best 2b in the AL this year. If he holds that average, then he'll be fine. If it slips, then he'll realize the Eckstien-Grudzi comps that have been thrown around.

But it does appear, at this stage of the game, I was certainly wrong about him.

by beastball on Sep 9, 2007 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Again?"

Did I miss a post somewhere else??

But yes, even if it's not in black and white, I did not expect Pedroia to OPS at .850 while playing solid defense at 2B. Kudos to the Sox for sticking him in at 2B and letting him fight through a rough April.

Although I really based my Pedroia opinion on others's views, and was far from the leader on this bandwagon. Also, while he's been solid, I wonder how much pub Pedroia would get if he played somehwere else? After all, no one's talking about Kelly Johnson, who's outhitting Pedroia, in a tougher offensive environment.

by Yakker on Sep 10, 2007 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have to search

I was sooooooo wrong on Evan Longoria

by Galt on Sep 9, 2007 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I remember this!

by siddfynch on Sep 9, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also,

I was also more negative than most on Lincecum and McGee b/c of the walks

To be fair, I was also pretty negative on Ian Stewart and Maybin since I've been here (last June) while being positive on Gallardo, Bruce, and (especially) Rasmus in the same time.

by Galt on Sep 9, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

test

Pick 4 (mine): I had a choice between Gallardo, Andrew Miller, and Lincecum.

by siddfynch on Sep 9, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dammit!

Who knows how to post font that will be in bold or italics? I want to start a diary, but need some text highlights.

by siddfynch on Sep 9, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I got it

sorry about the thread hijack, err...diversion

by siddfynch on Sep 9, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

test again

test

by siddfynch on Sep 9, 2007 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess now's a good time to bring this up.

If Hirsh doesn't win 13 next year

I will eat my shorts.

by Shamus on Sat Dec 02, 2006 at 12:19:16 AM CDT

by greg456 on Sep 9, 2007 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good find greg

where is ol shamus?

by daveh33 on Sep 9, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't suppose

we'll be seeing him. Would those be freshly laundered or shorts worn all day in the Texas heat? Nothing like choking down some fumunda!!!

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Sep 9, 2007 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

see

if Hirsh was still an Astro he would have won 13 this year. But, he was traded out of my jurisdiction and subject to other fans/ballpark/management. I think that deal ended 10 days later when that dumbass Tim Purpura traded Hirsh for 270 pounds of crap.

"You hear a lot of things... because there are a lot of people talking." (Shamus original)

by Shamus on Sep 10, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like this one...

...on NL ROY predictions:

Don't forget about Chris Young, he will turn it around.

My sleeper is Ryan Braun, I have a feeling that he will come up soon and go all Francoeur circa 2005 on the NL.

by uga007 on Sun Apr 22, 2007 at 04:17:14 PM CDT

"then at All-Star Fanfest, the Upton-bros will proceed to beat Carlos Gomez and Jose Reyes in a 3-legged race around the bases." -daveh33

by uga007 on Sep 9, 2007 5:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gloating, eating crow

I was one of the Lincecum haters in the preseason, but man the kid can pitch, no doubt...

I was really optimistic on Michael Bowden, and I think I'm still in the right direction. He ended up with weak numbers in AA, but given his age and the fact that he went through stretched where he was very very good, I'm still optimistic.

I was down on Joba for health reasons, but I didn't expect him to pitch this well when healthy

I loved Braun and Gallardo, I was down on Andrew Miller

I saw really good things for Delmon Young, but I guess it's foolish to expect big power numbers for A) a Young kid and B) a free-swinger

I'm sure there are others I'll think of later, these are the ones that stand out

by Jgaztambide on Sep 10, 2007 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's a good one:

He's on course . . . to be an average regular, probably, for several years. That probably will make him the best SS in Mets history, and get him to a few All-Star games. He seems unlikely to be as good as Furcal, and that's certainly his ceiling.

by Vaux on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 01:50:59 PM CDT

by Vaux on Sep 10, 2007 1:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's

Jose Reyes, by the way.

by Vaux on Sep 10, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some

guys I appear to have been right on:
Edwin Jackson (presuming he doesn't continue to improve)
Casey Kotchman (same)
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Ervin Santana
Mark Reynolds

guys I appear to have been wrong on:
Ian Stewart
Wes Bankston (VERY wrong)
Brian Dopirak (ditto)
Nick Markakis
Evan Longoria
Justin Verlander

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Sep 10, 2007 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Funny

over in my "retrospective" diary, I credited you with helping me rate Longoria as the best hitter on my draft board. I guess it was another Rays fan...

by siddfynch on Sep 10, 2007 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brick

It very well could have been Brick. When he said he was wrong about Longoria, he was talking about when he was drafted. He was very critical of the pick, as was I when he was drafted over Miller, Lincecum and Lincoln. We both had changed our opinion before the summer was over. He proved many Rays fans very wrong.

by Tyler on Sep 10, 2007 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

I thought he was definately the best hitter on the drafty board, and I saw some positives, but I thought there were about 5 pitchers left on the board who were better, including Miller, Lincecum, Morrow, Scherzer and Lincoln (ouch).

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Sep 11, 2007 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great diary idea. ;-)

OK, one I missed on:

In a diary on whether Jeter or Hafner was a better keeper, I took Pronk and said:

"Pronk, meanwhile, is 29 and still getting better due to his late start. His OPS is still trending upwards."

Oops. At least, though, I put my money where my mouth was...Haf dragged my fantasy team out of first this year.

[Kudos to limozeen for taking the other side of the argument.]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/1/31/940/89388/10#10

And here's the Russ Ortiz one mentioned by the OP that I (along with others) was right on:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/3/11/213320/400/12#12

One more to end on, where everybody was sorta right and sorta wrong on Alou. He did give (to date) the .900 OPS some expected, but only over a handful of games:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2006/11/22/12159/564/8#8

by Yakker on Sep 10, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

let's do a few.

first, here's my proposed final 11 for the offseason prospect poll, and how they look now.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/1/30/112011/204/84#84

89 Hank Conger - ok.
90 Cedric Hunter - bad so far.
91 Alexi Casilla - eh.
92 Kurt Suzuki - good, in that he's a big leaguer.
93 Mark Reynolds - ditto.
94 Mitch Talbot - meh.
95 Kyle Drabek - bad.
96 Brent Lillibridge - ok.
97 Lars Anderson - good.
98 John Mayberry Jr - meh.
99 Blake DeWitt - meh.
100 Tony Butler - ok. largely unchanged - good potential, still a high school pitcher.

so, three that i'd call clear hits (suzuki, reynolds, lars). three that are probably still in the same range, so not great picks but not crazy (conger, lillibridge, butler). and six blahs (hunter, casilla, talbot, drabek, mayberry, dewitt). so 50%, more or less. how are those odds? i'm not sure.

by wily mo on Sep 10, 2007 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs