Crystal Ball: Phil Humber

by John Sickels on Sep 7, 2007 3:28 PM EDT in News

Remember, the Crystal Ball is not a PROJECTION. It is meant to stimulate discussion about the player in question.

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looks like Jeff Suppan

by Bravesin07 on Sep 7, 2007 3:18 PM EDT reply actions

Think He'll be better

I think he'll have some dominate years, care to give an explanation when you have some time John?

by Maine Man on Sep 7, 2007 3:44 PM EDT reply actions

Looks solid

Wins 100 games in his career, pitches until he's 36, has a few very good seasons, and pitches at least 170 innings 8 consecutive years.

I have to say John, one of the most reasonable Crystal Balls I've seen yet. A guy doesn't necessarily need to compete for the Cy Young or win a ton of games to have a very successful career . . .this shows it.

by mrkupe on Sep 7, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

Bring on Anna

If he marries a crazy, smokin-hot Playboy model, he could be Kris Benson! He even has a stint with the Mets and Orioles.

Seriously, looks about right. Mets pitching farmhands never seem to quite pan out to be stars, but he should be a League-Average Innings Machine (LAIM), as they say at BP.

by tim @ Minor League Ball on Sep 7, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions

looks like an innings eater

but wasn't he supposed to be an ace before TJ surgery?

--http://yankeesfuture.blogspot.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Sep 7, 2007 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

Response

He was the epitome of the "safe" pick, a guy who would sign pretty easily and had a very low chance of being a total bust. He didn't have Niemann's injury history and he didn't have Weaver's contract demands, so he was a nice middle-of-the-road option. There were some who felt that he had the ability to be a frontline guy, but I think No. 3 starter with a high chance of reaching that projection was the most popular sentiment.

Guys who can eat innings and post an ERA in the low 4s are hard to come by. If he does this, he'll have been a hell of an investment for the Mets.

by mrkupe on Sep 7, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

A bit better than that

Mainly those hit rates are way too high for Humber, who easily led the PCL in WHIP despite being in his first full sesaon back from TJ and struggling some early trying to recover his feel for his pitches.

I think also his bout with food poisoning in August, where he lost 10 pounds, hurt him this season. Take out the four starts after the food poisoning, and this is the last 6 remaining starts:

ERA RA/9 H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
2.39 2.87 5.73 1.43 2.39 8.12

Now I realize that's sort of cherry picking and a small sample, and I'm not saying he's really that good, but I do think he made more progress in the second half than some realize. And I don't think he'll end up with an H9 much over 9.00 in the majors.

Also, context has to be considered here. Those numbers would be OK for the AL, but the guy in this projection is at best a #4 starter in his time in NY. The league average ERA for a pitcher on the Mets this year is about 4.23. That means the guy in this crystal ball puts up about a 92 ERA+ during his time with the Mets, before busting out with career years at ages 30 and 31. The Kris Benson comparison are fun, but the truth is Benson has had a much better career than the Phil Humber above.

All that is possible, but doesn't really seem likely for Humber who seems to have good command of 3 good pitches right now. But really, only knock about a third of a run off those ERAs, and it looks reasonable to me.

by acerimusdux on Sep 7, 2007 6:55 PM EDT reply actions

In response to myself...

I think I'm overstating my case a bit.

After taking a closer look, I'll say maybe shave just 0.20 runs off those ERAs from 2009-2012. But the win totals look just right.

And I think he will struggle some early on. Not quite as much with the hit rate, as suggested here, but more with the HR rate.

by acerimusdux on Sep 8, 2007 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

OMG I CAN'T BELIEVE

HUMBER WILL BE GREAT!!!111.... Just kidding, pretty reasonable considering his semi-struggles in AAA plus his injury history. I think he's going to be make or break myself. Either he'll stay healthy and be a good pitcher or he'll have a tragically short, injury plagued career.

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 8, 2007 11:51 AM EDT reply actions