Greinke

by pedrophile on Sep 4, 2007 12:38 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

What's he going to be?

and

Who saw his last game? How was he pitching.

I think KC made a very good move switching him to the pen and then another good move to put him back in the rotation. The guy was out for a year and probably was rusty at the beginning of the year. And the last thing Zach needed was to struggle. Being in the pen helped him gain confidence and regain his touch IMO.

It's interesting to me that both Carmona and Greinke added velocity on their move to the pen and kept it when going back to the rotation. I hope Zach is able to keep it.

Before I saw Greinke as a #3 with the upside of a #2 because of his HR tendency and off the field issues. Now I'm not sure. I don't want to get too
carried away but if he keeps that stuff he has a chance to be an ace.

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You know what...

Pedro? I was about to tell you to calm down but, I thought I'd go watch a recent clip or 2 of him first and...wow, I have to say I see your reason for renewed enthusiasm about this kid. I've always been a HUGE fan of him myself but, had become close to resigned that he may never make is as a starter and would have to settle into a good career in relief kinda like Joaquin Benoit in Texas but, Zach is dealin' man! 95...95...98! Nothing wrong with being a good and true #2 starter but, he is looking better than he EVER has to me. Maybe something has clicked with him and he has fought off the "crazies" too.

I wish him luck.

by casejud on Sep 4, 2007 2:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I just picked him up in my AL-only league. He's got the stuff to be an ace, and I knew it would only be a matter of time before he got his head on straight. I'd expect him to be in 2007 as good as he was in 2004, if not better.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Sep 4, 2007 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Buchholz\Greinke

Anyone else see a similarity between the 2? I only have seen clips of Buchholz but his repertoire of pitches and stuff look a lot like Greinke. Both are the same ageheight and build as well. Buchholz on the clips I have seen looked a bit more like an over the top thrower but I couldn't help but notice some similarities.

I bring this up as it is interesting how our view of Greinke is compared to Buchholz. If Greinke had been in the minors all this time about to be called up I bet he would be one of the top (if not #1) pitcher in the minor leagues.

by joltin joe dimaggio on Sep 4, 2007 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

There's no doubt that Greinke would have been a hyped prospect...he was back in 2003/2004. The comparison to Buchholz is interesting: Buchholz has a better curveball, though Greinke's curve was his best pitch before moving to the bullpen. He hasn't used it much since, because now he's relying on his fastball/slider combo. His slider and Buchholz' are probably about equal. Greinke's fastball is better, from what I've seen.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 4, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Buchholz's change blows away Greinke's

That's the difference between the two. Buchholz's changeup absolutely blows away Greinke's best pitch. Didn't Greinke also throw his curve at 60 MPH because it was like that MVP 2005.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 4, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slow Curve

Greinke used to throw two different curveballs, including a slow mid 60s curve as a rookie. He even threw a 50 mph curve to Ivan Rodriguez his rookie year. You might prefer the hard, power curve, but I can assure you, with the separation in velocity between Greinke's curve and fastball, it was quite an effective pitch. In fact, that was Greinke's calling card as a rookie even more than location: he was brilliant at changing speeds.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 4, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do remember

watching a game Greinke pitched in which he hit every mph from 83-95 in one game. It must be tough for a hitter to get the timing right when the pitch is a slightly different velocity every time.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Sep 4, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Curve

I don't know what he's been throwing this year but he was still using the slow curve in AA last year. I saw him throw plenty in 2 starts, 63-67 MPH.

by sungod7 on Sep 4, 2007 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as a reliever it's keep it simple

and throw hard. Which has worked wonders for him.

You just can't try to throw 4 pitches in the pen. As a starter throughout the game you figure whats working. But in the pen you don't have that luxury.

And curves have the lowest called strike ratios of any pitch in baseball.

I'm sure he'll slowly work it back.

ps: that 70mph is killer when backed with a 97 fastball and a mid 80's slider.

by pedrophile on Sep 4, 2007 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Saw his last start

And have listened to the other two on the radio. Zack learned how to maximize his arm speed in the bullpen, and that's where he's getting the extra velocity. He's always been able to throw that hard, but he's never been able to control it, which is why he's always been more of a control guy until this year. Obviously, though, he's found a way to harness his high 90s stuff...and it's pretty scary to watch. Oh, and it's not just the fastball. He's brought a sick slider back with him from the pen, as well.

He flat out dominated Texas last night, but he did start to lose velocity in innings four and five. In the KC Star today, he admitted that he lost a little but "still had a kick or two left" for if he got into trouble (which he didn't).

I think it's only a matter of time now. The kid is young and in superb shape. He's a great, great athlete. I don't see any reason why he won't be able to maintain the velocity over 100+ pitches every start, once he builds his arm strength back up. That might not happen for good until the offseason, but he's a big sleeper for next year. Unless, of course, he keeps dominating like this...

by ajohnst1 on Sep 4, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I went through MLB's GameCast

and he was throwing 94-95 consistently in his last inning, which was down from 97 in his first few innings, but still damn impressive for 70-80's pitch count. I imagine he needs to build up arm strength which will help him maintain that velocity later as well.

by andwoo on Sep 4, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

It's not like he was way, way down. His last pitch was, I believe, 94. He was a little bit down though.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 4, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Said this in the last thread too, but let me expand a little. I've been following Greinke for the last few years, even though I'm not from KC nor a Royals fan, just because there's so much that intrigues me about him. When he was a starter, it was easy. Dial up the TiVo, watch his starts on MLB EI, etc. But I lost the thread a little when he moved to the bullpen, since I don't watch KC regularly and there wasn't any schedule of when he'd pitch.

Anyway, that's a long intro, but I finally caught him live again for his last start, and he looks like a different pitcher. More consistent command on the FB, with the higher velocity. Better sense of how to attack the hitters and put them away with his off-speed stuff. And, perhaps most importantly, renewed sense of confidence on the mound. Before, I'd root for the kid and cringe when something bad happened to him, but now he just looks like he's in control out there, no matter what.

We've seen "breakthroughs" with Greinke before, but I really hope that he's turned the corner for good.

by Yakker on Sep 4, 2007 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Your CONSERVATIVE estimate of Greinke was a #3 starter?

Geez . . .I love Greinke, but talk about lofty expectations. Not sure how many, if any, young pitchers have that sort of downside.

by mrkupe on Sep 4, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Different

Idea of what upside and downside are I would think.

I think maybe there should be maybe what is called "reasonable" upside and downside.

I think at least at some point a #3 starter would have been seen as at least Greinke's most likely outcome as a big leaguer, a #1 being less likely and a #4 or #5 even LESS likely than that.

by casejud on Sep 4, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I wholeheartedly disagree with your last statement.

I operate on the assumption that the most likely outcome for 99 percent of all minor league pitching prospects is that fabled 4-5 starter level of performance. It's not a knock against their talent or their present ability, it's just very hard to A) make it healthy to the major leagues and B) to pitch at a very high level of performance even if healthy. I tend to view rankings lists of pitching prospects largely as a measurement of how much more likely Pitcher A is to exceed this level of performance than Pitcher B. Sure it's easy to project a bunch of guys as No. 1-2 starters (and it's a whole lot more fun than the alternative), but it's just not reasonable.

It's also a pretty safe rule that a pitcher's downside scenario is much more likely to pass than his upside scenario. As I've alluded to before, I'm not sure I'd ever feel safe about suggesting that ANY young pitcher (even guys in the Hughes/Lincecum/Buchholz class of prospects) is more likely to end up at the front end of a rotation than the back end.

by mrkupe on Sep 4, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with you Kupe

BUT the thing with Greinke was that at the time (as a rookie or before) he wasn't projected to be just another good young prospect he was projected to be THE BEST or one of the best and EEN THEN I didnt say it was impossible or unlikely that he would end up a #4/#5 guy just, less likely than the other 2.

I do actually agree with your overall point that people tend to project prospects way to optimistically or UNREASONABLE actually.

Case in point when I said last year that I thought Chris Young could have a career similar to Mike Cameron and people thought I was insulting Young when actually to develkop into a player like Cameron would be a gret accomplishment for Mr. Young.

I think you may have gone to the other end of the spectrum though Kupe. While it is unreasonable to project a bunch of kid pitchers as future aces it IS okay to project one as one once in a while.

by casejud on Sep 4, 2007 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

we didn't think you were insulting him

we just thought you were wrong

by wily mo on Sep 5, 2007 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with casejud

That's just his most likely outcome. For Greinke, the downside has always been that he won't be a productive major league pitcher at all, not because he doesn't have the ability, but because he didn't have the desire. It's cliche, but in Greinke's case it really was true. There was a point in time when he had absolutely no desire to be a big league pitcher. Fortunately, that time seems to have passed. I think at the very least Greinke could be an excellent setup reliever/closer. In the rotation, he'd be at least a number 4/5 at his worst (without his increased velocity), and a number 1 guy at his best. I think he'll peak as a very good number 2.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 4, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not conservative

I typically agree with you on pitching and on having a nice amount of pessimism.

I saw a #2 upside and a #3 as the expected outcome. His downside of course is out of baseball. And the #4/5 is the slight downside.

This of course was after the 2004 season where as a 20 year old he had a fantastic and almost full season in the bigs. His whip was 1.17 and his numbers were excellent. The only blip was the HR rate. And he still kept his ERA below 4 (by a hair).

If his numbers didn't improve at all he would be a solid #3 starter.

Then he collapsed as we all know, becoming the #4/5 then the out of baseball. This year he is again showing the #3 numbers but really showing that he can be something much much more.

by pedrophile on Sep 4, 2007 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Future rotation?

Meche, Greinke, Hochevar, Bannister and Soria is starting to look like a pretty good rotation maybe two years from now...

by mateodh on Sep 4, 2007 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

KC's rotation in 2008

I believe KC will keep Soria as a closer for 2008. A rotation of Meche, Bannister, Greinke, and a battle for 4th/5th between Davies, Hochevar, Nunez, Buckner would be a strong rotation assuming good health and no fall backs from 2007.

Greinke has gone through some difficult issues personally in past few years. I think he has grown up and learned a great deal. He is still just a kid, too. Easy to forget how young he was when he was the only positive thing going in KC's pitching staff.

The Royals are on the right track with young starting pitching and more on the way. Their Wilmington staff has really been strong in 2007.

by daveyork on Sep 4, 2007 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rotation

I still do not believe in Meche as a #1, but otherwise the KC rotation looks pretty solid.

And I'd bet on Davies/Hoch coming out of 2008 ST in the 4/5 spots, unless Moore brings in some journeyman/NRI to chew some early innings for the club and has Hoch come up in late May/early June to reduce his workload.

by Yakker on Sep 4, 2007 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't

See Meche as a true #1 either, but give me two #2, two #3, and a backend starter and I've got something goin...

by doublestix on Sep 4, 2007 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soria

I suppose it depends on what they want to do with him, but I think he could handle starting and he has more value that way. As a Rule 5 I understand him being a reliever all year, but I think he could be 2008's version of Adam Wainwright. Great closers are a lot easier to find than good starters, IMO.

by mateodh on Sep 4, 2007 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arm

I think it's more for protection of his arm. He's had injuries in the past and he will pitch in Mexico again this winter.

He'll be a starter eventually, but not next year I don't think.

by doublestix on Sep 4, 2007 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a Royals fan for decades

I don't think I can take many more years of closers who can't finish. Just fill in the blank here ________. Soria has been a door slammer this year. When he takes the mound, the game has almost always resulted in Royals win.

With strong starting pitching, I see Soria as vital to finishing what the starters begin.

by daveyork on Sep 4, 2007 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs