Updated 6:24PM: Final Draft Order

by abbreviatedman on Sep 29, 2007 1:17 AM EDT Comment 44 comments

This is the final order, assuming the Giants hold on to their 7-run lead. Final, that is, before FA compensation this offseason. Remember that in case of a tie, the tie-breaker is the previous year's record. So Kansas City gets the 3rd spot over the equally-bad Orioles because they had a worse record the previous year.

Here's the complete order, now with loss totals:

1. Tampa Bay 96
2. Pittsburgh 94
3. Kansas City 93
4. Baltimore 93
5. San Francisco 91
6. Florida 91
7. Cincinnati 90
8. Chicago (AL) 90
9. Washington 89
10. Houston 89
11. Texas 87
12. Oakland 86
13. Saint Louis 84
14. Minnesota 83
15. Los Angeles (NL) 80
16. Milwaukee 79
17. Toronto 79
18. Atlanta 78
19. Chicago (NL) 77
20. Seattle 74
21. Detroit 74
22. New York (NL) 74
23. Colorado 73
24. Philadelphia 73
25. San Diego 73
26. Arizona 72
27. Los Angeles (AL) 68
28. New York (AL) 68
29. Cleveland 66
30. Boston 66

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Comments

pedro alvarez

would they still go after pedro alvarez with evan longoria at the hot corner?

by witmerbob on Sep 29, 2007 1:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes

any other questions?

by jpahk on Sep 29, 2007 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thus...

a reason why picks should be allowed to be traded in baseball.

by Havok1517 on Sep 29, 2007 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

The only case I see for being able to trade picks is if the top guy is represented by Boras or a Boras like entity, and will command more money than the team wants to pay. I can't find any mention of Boras and Alvarez hooked up, and the Devil Rays are willing to pay for the top guys. Plus, Longoria has proven exactly nothing at the big league level, so why would you pass on maybe the best college hitter since Teixeira in deference to him? Besides, Longoria could move to 2B if they wanted Alvarez to stay at 3B, or Alvarez could play 1B if Pena falls flat or leaves because of Boras, and ofcourse he could DH and probably even play a corner OF spot if something goes wrong with the big three in the Rays OF.

by Brett Keith on Sep 29, 2007 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

always take the best player. if you wind up with a logjam (which almost never happens the way it's predicted - look at how TB's outfield crisis worked out), then worst-case scenario is you've got a young, cheap stud player to trade.

by wily mo on Sep 29, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For example

TB could trade the #1 pick to someone like the Astros and still have a very good pick but they could get a number of comibinations of things in return including houston's pick as well as a prospect or a current major leaguer. Is it that hard to fathom? Football does it that way.

by Havok1517 on Sep 29, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think there's a real need

i mean, if they feel like it, tampa can always trade alvarez for whoever houston picks + a little something in the winter of 2009 or whatever. there's almost never a quick fix via the draft anyway.

to me, the only reason to allow trading of draft picks is because of the boras factor. that way, a team which can't afford to sign the best player available can always trade the pick to a team with the money, and pick up a little something in return.

by jpahk on Sep 29, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MLB Draft Is Not The NFL Draft

The players in the NFL draft go directly to the "bigs" basically, and have a higher probability of success I'd imagine. Do you really think that a team would give up any valuable Major Leaguer for a draft pick? I don't see how a team could get good value for a high draft pick unless they make the Japanese players subject to the draft.

by Brett Keith on Sep 29, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Happens in hockey

and most players spend time in the minors or don't come over right away either.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Sep 29, 2007 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How Many 18-19 Year Olds...

...played significant time in the NHL last year? How many 18-19 year olds played at all in the MLB last year? My favorite team, the Penguins, had a 19 year old win the Hart/MVP, and an 18 year old seriously compete for ROY, and had another 18 year old callup in Kris Letang. Anze Kopitar was 19 and seriously contended for ROY. The NHL is still very different from MLB.

by Brett Keith on Sep 29, 2007 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sidney Crosby

says Hi! Evegeni Malkin and the Staal Brother says hello as well. Actually in hockey theres a handful of guys who are 19-21 and play every year in the NHL... fwiw

by tbach81 on Oct 1, 2007 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure, but I think that was his point.

He phrased it oddly, so maybe I'm wrong, but I think he WAS saying that there are plenty of teen NHL players, many more than in MLB.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 1, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

maybe i couldnt detect the sarcasm lol.... Must be my sarcasm detector needed to wake up this morning

by tbach81 on Oct 1, 2007 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

...my point was to show that many teens and players barely out of their teens play significant roles in the NHL pretty much every year, and that doesn't happen in MLB. I wasn't being sarcastic though...I don't really see how anyone missed what I was saying lol

by Brett Keith on Oct 1, 2007 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Football draftees

also have instant gratification

by mroak89 on Sep 29, 2007 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Under the current system, there's really no point in teams trading picks because Boras will still say that his client will on sign with a big market team, which negates any leverage that the team holding the high pick will have. Think about it, do you think that the Yankees will want to trade something significant for a prospect that they like when they can get the same guy or someone just as good without giving anything up?

Trading picks only works in a fixed slotting system similar to the NBA.

by parrot11 on Sep 30, 2007 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One correction!

Hello abbreviatedman,

Nice work - thanks!

One correction though - I think you meant that second New York (NL) to be New York (AL,) right?

You could also add (AL) to the second Los Angeles, though that isn't necessary.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Sep 29, 2007 1:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Corrections made.

And thanks.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 29, 2007 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who wants to start?

The first mock draft? ;-)

by doublestix on Sep 29, 2007 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Upddate

I believe the Giants moved up to #5 with their loss and Florida's win last night.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 29, 2007 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right you are.

Thanks.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 29, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Value Of High Picks

You could point to Tampa Bay as an example of the futility of perennial high draft slots, however, it sure looks like TB is on the verge of a dynasty that could last for 6-8 years at a relatively low maintenance cost where they have the most talented roster in baseball, top to bottom. The achilles heel appears to be whether they can quickly bring their cadre of young pitchers, Price, Davis McGee and others to ceiling and then keep them healthy.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 29, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pirates

You should point to Pittsburgh instead.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 29, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh Too?

You could certainly point to Pittsburgh too. What has Tampa Bay ever won that shows that a succession of high draft picks eventually pays off? I'm saying that up to this point they haven't, but that could be about to change. TB still has some sorting out to do and the development of their pitching is no sure thing, but they certainly have the makings of being able to sustain a top notch roster for several years.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 29, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I don't think the D-Rays have ever won more then 70 games. They certainly have talent but haven't been able to do anything with it. It certainly doesn't help being in the AL East but I'm not sure a lot would have been different.

by jfish26101 on Sep 29, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LA vs TB

LA is an example of a team that accumulated a whole lot of high ceiling prospects through the draft without the "benefit" of a series of top 5 or even top 10 picks. Not saying TB hasn't gotten good prospects out of their high picks because they have, but you don't have to lose to have good drafts.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 29, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Braves and Twins usually draft well. A's have been up and down over the last few years. Tigers have been extremely lucky with teams passing on top talent due to signability.

by jfish26101 on Sep 29, 2007 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Halos are a fan of drafting

High schoolers (high risk-high reward). While Stoneman and co. are good at drafting for sure, they've had some luck go their way with the amount of survivors of the attrition wars. Their success has been as good or better than college drafties.

by elrey34 on Sep 29, 2007 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First pick rotates

I am pretty sure the first pick alternates between leagues. Tampa had it last year so this year would be the NL. This is what happened a couple years ago when Detroit lost 119 games and picked 2nd after San Diego.

by nothingissound on Sep 29, 2007 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no

that got scratched a few years ago.

by doublestix on Sep 29, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh

my bad. i'm glad they changed it. it made no sense to do it that way

by nothingissound on Sep 29, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea

Agreed that it made no sense. I like the way it is right now.

Well, at least that part of the draft, the rest is for a whole other discussion.

by doublestix on Sep 29, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still?

I thought that system changed and the worst record always picks first.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 29, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Turned out pretty good for them in retrospect.

Almost everybody in the first round that year did better than Matt Bush.

by elrey34 on Sep 29, 2007 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

that didnt work out so bad : )

but yeah, it has now changed for the better

by nms on Oct 1, 2007 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I'm pretty excited to see what the Twins do with a top 15 pick and a new organizational structure.

by limozeen on Sep 29, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Excited?

If I were a Twins fan I'd be a little insecure. It's tough to top Ryan's success. I hope for the best for them though. Classy fans, they are.

by elrey34 on Sep 29, 2007 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

That depends on who you ask; TR did make some questionable choices in this last draft.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 29, 2007 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Radcliff

This will be the 1st draft Radcliff won't beoverseeing over the past 20 years. Here's to being promoted!

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Sep 30, 2007 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah....

High draft picks were much like kryptonite to Ryan. Lets take a look at 1st round picks going back to 95

Revere-has made the Twins look smart, but wasn't the right selection
Parmalee-probably a hit. Took a step backward in the pitcher friendly MWL this year
Garza-Hit
Henry Sanchez-Miss, at 20 still in Rookie Ball
Plouffe-I am going to say hit
Perkins-hit, but the big club is jerking him around
Waldrop-not bad, but not that good
Matthew Fox- Actually quite a nice comeback, but at 24 still stuck in low-A ball the chances are very slim
Jay Rainville- Another injury victim, still one of my favorite prospects. Had a decent bounceback year at 21
Matt Moses-Bustarooni
Span-bustarooni
Mauer-I think he's going to be an alright MLB player....
Adam Johnson-Huge Bustarooni
Aaron Heilman-not a bad pick, he just didn't sign
BJ Garbe-Super Bust
Ryan Mills-Injury Bust
Cuddyer-Snatched MLB success from the jaws or inept managing
LeCroy-Nice role player who fell apart
Travis Lee-Twins got Screwed by Boras, in the end it was probably better that way
Mark Redman-Nice pick, sent away for the ghost of Todd Jones

There aren't a lot of bright spots, especially near the top of the draft. Garbe, Mills, Johnson, Moses are huge craters that a team cannot have.
Ryan/Radcliffe did a lot of things right, drafting high wasn't one of them for the most part

by Terry Ryan Jr on Oct 3, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2002 Reversed?

Any chance Tampa pulls a Pittsburgh circa 2002 and passes on the #1 prospect(Upton:Alvarez), to instead pick a cheaper pitcher(Bullington:Matusz etc.), allowing the Pirates to nab the best talent in the draft? Naaaahhhhhh!

by Brett Keith on Sep 30, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thankfully

Matusz wouldnt be a bad choice. I dont think Matusz is that far behind Alvarez, and that could give them a rotation that would give the Yanks and Sox left handed hitters fits. Kazmir, McGee, Price, Matusz would be solid.

by Kanst42 on Sep 30, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but...

Even before you factor in the additional risk of drafting a pitcher, Alvarez is really much better. Kazmir, Shields, Price, McGee, Davis is as solid as your crew, and Alvarez would give them another big bopper. Imagine a 2010 lineup that would include Upton, Crawford, Alvarez, Longoria, Young, and Brignac. (This is assuming Pena leaves for FA, which is a safe bet I think.)

Of course, in 8 months any number of players could be considered the top prospect.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 30, 2007 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs