Is Markakis going to be a superstar?

by bravitos5122 on Sep 27, 2007 5:37 PM EDT Comment 38 comments

No sophomore slump. More people would notice him as a great young player on a national level if he wasn't an oriole. I think the sky is the limit with this kid.

.294/.357/.478 22 HR 43 2B 110 RBI 17 SB 60/110 BB/K

He strikes out a little more than I expected, but I expect that to really come down. He basically has 60/60/60 hitting chart, very impressive and should allow him to be a higher average hitter as his career goes on. He has 13 homers in the 2nd half of the season and shown power to all fields. He has a lot more power than most people would have thought. I can see him hitting 30-35 regularly in his prime. Toss in great defense, excellent baserunner, do we have ourselves a future all star?

Where is he on the list of top young OFs?

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List of Top Young Out Fielders..

I think you'd need to define young first, but lets say 25 and under.

My list would be taking into account room for growth, ceiling, production thus far, and overall impact on a game.

I used a 150 MLB AB cut off as of today. So no Justin Upton

Grady Sizemore
B.J. Upton
Matt Kemp
Chris Young
Jeremy Hermida
Travis Buck
Nick Markakis
Delmon Young
Hunter Pence
Corey Hart

I think Sizemore is the most complete package as far as base running, fielding, and hitting.

Upton has that huge ceiling but his defense isn't there yet.

I think Kemp and Upton are similar and very raw. Kemp will be a stud, can anyone believe that La Times article about trading him. LOL.

Chris Young is an electric player with grade A defense, huge power for a CF and the ability to steal a base. I think he'll expand on his BA and OBP numbers next season.

Hermida and Buck are two players I love, I'm not a money ball guy, but I love a player who can control the strike zone like these two. Not to mention good defense and some pop.

Markakis is well rounded he can steal hit for average and power, but I don't see him having a higher ceiling than the players above him. He is a finished product in my opinion. But a good product at that.

Delmon young is an intresting player, he has a great arm and I think some of his doubles will turn into HRs. However, I think people expected more power from him. With that said, he still has a high ceiling.

Hunter Pence was scorching hot this year before getting hurt. Being 9 on this list is no slight, but I don't see him having the pop and average that he had this season. He plays great D and thats also what keeps him on this list.

Francour is an intresting player and I had him here first, however Hart's year was very better than his. Francour lost a lot of power and Hart's numbers are hard to ignore this season.

by Metty5 on Sep 27, 2007 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

At least take Adam Jones before Kemp.

Their skillsets are virtually identical, as are their career arcs thus far, but Jones can do it from a defensive premium position. Neither one of them are future superstars, but at least one has the potential to be a better than average player up the middle.

by elrey34 on Sep 27, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forgot to put what I meant to in the first place.

Very good list overall.

by elrey34 on Sep 27, 2007 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jones didn't have the ABs

by Metty5 on Sep 28, 2007 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say he did.

But he's still the better player.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clarification

...When you say for B.J. Upton, "but his defense isn't there yet", what do you mean? From everything I've read and heard he's been borderline spectacular, with only occasional mistakes that are understandable for a guy that hasn't been an outfielder full time till after the season was well underway. Do you mean that his defense isn't where it COULD be? Or do you mean he isn't a good defender yet? I'm a huge Upton fan so I'm probably only 90% impartial.

by Brett Keith on Sep 27, 2007 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i've never seen him.

So i can't make a true argument. I am not a stats guy and am more of a traditional scouting guy. However I have heard Upton is a sub par defender. Can anyone shed more light on this.

by Metty5 on Sep 28, 2007 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bossman

is better than Rocco Baldelli right now in CF. He gets great jumps, makes tough plays look routine. He's got a very good arm and has tremendous range. I haven't seen any issue with his defense. I personally think he's above-average right now.

by Tyler on Sep 29, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Takes a lot to be a superstar in RF.

Unless he can hit 40 HRs or a consistent .320, he's probably not a superstar.

Some 35-HR star seasons, on the other hand, seem entirely possible.

Just my opinion.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 27, 2007 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You can be a superstar in right field

Without those stats. I've always said Ichiro was overrated when he's playing a corner, but if you added .050 of OPS, he would have put up legit superstar numbers in right when you factor in his defensive and gaudy base running contributions. Seriously, there are only a small handful of guys who put up those kind of numbers year in and year out every decade, and they're all Hall bound.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points.

But I think Ichiro is a superstar because he's a unique player, not necessarily because of his value as a RF. He was a very good RF. Now he's a superstar-quality CF. Also, he does hit a consistent .320, as I was saying.

But I think I phrased my post poorly. I'm not saying you have to hit 40 HRs every year a la Manny or A-Rod to be a superstar. But I don't think it's too far behind that. Just think of how many corner OFs are superstars: Holliday (if you can be a superstar in Denver), Ordonez, Guerrerro, Soriano, Dunn (if he wasn't hated), Manny. Maybe a few others if you stretch the definition, like Griffey, Abreu, Dye, Lee. That's very few, out of a possible 60 corner IFs. I just don't think Markakis can hit like those guys. But maybe, say, a healthy Juan Rivera?

by abbreviatedman on Sep 28, 2007 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is no question Ichiro is overrated in RF.

He just doesn't get on base enough for a guy with little pop, and the whole attraction is the high average.

However, when you put him in center field, he certainly becomes the best defender in the league -- and possibly all of baseball (Adam Everett is equally or more awesome) -- at a position that demands quality defense. Center field gives him the opportunity to save tons of runs that a corner can't, and he takes full advantage of it. I don't want to see him at a corner until his range actually deteriorates, which will probably be when he's approaching 40.

Ichiro goes from criminally overrated to very underrated just from the position switch.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

travis buck?

I can see the arguments made for the other guys above him, though I have Markakis 2nd behind Sizemore. But Buck should be near the bottom of that list.

by bravitos5122 on Sep 27, 2007 6:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes ...

all that fuss about Butler, this kid will have a more successful career I think. Now he didn't go all "Ryan Braun" on everybody his 1st time thru last yr but his progress is obvious, his intangibles (work ethic, attitude, etc.) are A+, and he's extremely athletic so more likely to play a lot of games for a lot of seasons. He sort of reminds me of Fred Lynn (not the injury prone version - ha), just kind of almost effortless in the way he plays. I can see a string of 35 HRs, near 1.000 OPS at his peak. And above ave. D too. A big time player.

by dew on Sep 27, 2007 6:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Butler

Any reason why you think he'll have a better career than Butler? Butler has put up better numbers at every level of the minors and done it at a younger age than Markakis. The Royals' minor league affiliates are a little more hitter friendly (a lot more in the case of High Desert, which is no longer one of ours, thank God), but Billy's career .977 OPS in the minors blows Markakis' away, and Billy put up a .954 OPS in 57 games at AAA this year at age 21. When Markakis was 21, he spent the majority of the year in A+ ball, with 33 games at AA, where he put up a 993 OPS. Butler's numbers were almost as good, but at a higher level.

In terms of defense, he obviously blows Butler away completely (not that that would be hard), but I thought you were implying that he'd be a better hitter than Butler, and I'd like to know why you think this would be the case.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 27, 2007 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a few thoughts

I meant overall, incl. D, etc. But ... if I can explain this clearly, I think Markakis has a higher "ceiling" than Butler, even tho Butler is younger. And reason due to his athleticism Markakis will be able to hold onto his peak longer than Butler will. Markakis will hit more HRs (his swing is geared for this more than BB's), and he'll hit over .300 for more seasons that Butler (athleticism).

But during their best yrs I can see Butler having a higher ave., maybe OBP, and possibly more XBH (tons of doubles in Butler's future). I guess what I'm getting at is Markakis will be a great player for a decade straight, maybe a bit longer; Butler will be a great player (hitter) for a little less than 10 yrs. I really hope he can master 1B, that might change things some. Admitting no number crunching done here, just present observations, reflections on the past (kinds of players they remind me of).

by dew on Sep 27, 2007 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can see Butler being a better hitter,

But that's partially because I think there's a good chance he'll put on more weight (in a good way), which may cost him in range. I think Markakis will turn out having the better defending career, however.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You were the bastards who dumbed High Desert

On us Seattleites? I think we've found a new rival.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not a superstar

but i think a career similar to, but longer than Bobby Higginson's (minus the post-steroid collapse)is a reasonable expecataion. something like Higgy put up 1995-2001. maybe a few more K's.

a top notch corner OF with fringy CF range. a nice combination of avg/power/obp who does more than his share in the field and can produce anywhere in the top half of a good lineup.

maybe somewhere between Higgy (great while he was young and artificially enhanced) and Dwight Evans (not much with the bat when he was younger, but aged very well)? that would be a hell of a career.

by zimm on Sep 27, 2007 8:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He reminds me of Paul Oneil

Good player on any club but not a great player. He would probably be a heart and soul type player on the Redsox or Yankees in the future.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 27, 2007 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

WTF is a...

..."heart and soul player?" What does that even mean?

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Sep 27, 2007 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

I made the exact comparison to O'Neill when he was first coming up. I guess it's easier to see than I thought. Same number too :)

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Sep 27, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from nate silver's chat a few days ago

Tim (Brooklyn, NY): Nick Markakis = Paul O'Neill?

Nate Silver: Sure.

by jpahk on Sep 28, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Paul Oneil

Wasnt close to as good as Markakis is now until Oneil got to be around 28. "Heart and Soul" type players dont put up this kind of production at such a young age.

I think a lot of people just look at Markakis' stature and think he has some limited upside because he isnt this balky athletic specimen some other guys are. He doesnt catch your eye a Kemp, Young, or Franceour would. But he has every tool and upside as any young OF.

I dont see the "near finished product" when he pretty much camme to the bigs out of High A and everybody expected him to be a pitcher. All he does is get better and get better quickly. I see a lot more improvement coming to his game, but it is interesting to see the varying opinions.

by bravitos5122 on Sep 27, 2007 8:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've always liked Markakis' bat

And defense at a corner, but I have no idea how well he's prospected to do in center field, if at all. I think that makes a huge difference between better than average/fringe All-Star and perennial All-Star. If he's supposed to stick at a corner, I can definitely see why he's overlooked because of the likes of future perennial All-Stars at ANY position like Delmon Young, Chris Young, the Upton brothers, and (a healthy) Hermida. If that really is the case, then I'd compare him to Grady Sizemore without the base running know-how and the ability to play plus defense up the middle.

by elrey34 on Sep 27, 2007 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

CF

I'd like the O's to put Markakis in center next year and trade for a young corner outfielder but I don't think they're that creative. He's got above average speed and gets good jumps, I think he could handle it. As for his bat, I just love that swing. It just looks like the the swing of a perennial .300-325 hitter. I could see him winning a few batting titles. He hasn't filled out yet and in his prime I can see him hitting 30-35 home runs annually. Factored in with his elite defense and he's going to be one of the top outfielders even if he stays in right. So yes, he could be a superstar, but only if the Orioles start to matter again.

by Harold Baines on Sep 27, 2007 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Think the Mets will be calling for Bedard

You could probably get the Mets farm system for him.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 27, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bedard

It sucks that it's come to the point where trading a talent like Bedard in his prime is a good idea. But I'd be much more interested in a package the Dodgers could offer than the Mets.

by Harold Baines on Sep 28, 2007 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very,Very Good Player

but Markakis isn't a "superstar". In fact the only players in the 1st post that I think can be "superstars" are Delmon Young and BJ Upton. To be a superstar you need the potential to win multiple MVP awards and I honestly think that they are the only two on that list with that potential.

Sizemore is great, but I seriously doubt that he will be able to play the way he does without cutting his career short by 10 years.

I think that Markakis and Pence will be stars and play in multiple all-star games over the next 15 yeras.

Chris Young can be spectacular, but I doubt he ever hits .300 or strikes out less than 100 times a year.

I love Kemp's tools, but he hasn't given me enough of a sample size to believe that he will be an all-star.

Hermida and Hart are solid players with good futures, but nothing truly special.

As for Buck, I think he's one of the most overrated prospects in baseball. He's never demonstrated much power or speed for a corner outfielder.

by Sage Sam on Sep 28, 2007 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're forgetting Grady Sizemore.

Even if he doesn't develop the power most people are predicting, he's a superstar right now. He might not be talked about as much as guys who put up the power numbers, but he's an absolute on-base machine, he's among the top two or three defenders in the league, and his SB totals AND SB% keep climbing. He's a star right now, and if he just gets better at what he's already great at doing, he's gonna be one of the top 5 players in the league, if not all of baseball.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus will be what Sizemore was

suppost to become.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 28, 2007 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This isn't about Rasmus.

As great as he is, that's another topic.

by elrey34 on Sep 28, 2007 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um

Sizemore did become what he was suppost to become. c'mon dude

by daveh33 on Oct 3, 2007 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

O'Neill

I agree with the O'Neill comparison. Both are LH, corner OFs who do/did almost everything well, but aren't spectacular at any one thing. They...

are good defenders with good arms, but not quite CF material.
are good baserunners who can steal 15-20 bases by being opportunistic, but not fast enough to be in the Lofton/Reyes class.
are good average hitters, who can consistently hit over .300, and occasionally get to .330 or .340.
have solid power, and can hit 25-30 HRs a year, but will never win a HR title (although I think Markakis will have a little more power).
have good, but not spectacular, plate discipline.

I don't think Markakis will ever be a "superstar," but there's a good chance he'll have many allstar seasons, and might have a couple of MVP-level season.

Keep in mind, however, that O'Neill didn't get a chance to play full time until he was 25, and didn't really reach his peak until he went to the Yankees at 30. If you replaced O'Neill's age 22-27 seasons with average O'Neill seasons, you'd have a HOF player. IOW, when all is said and done Markakis could have a great career.

by rp0806 on Sep 28, 2007 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

100% on the money!

great post.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Sep 28, 2007 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another comp.

Is Al Kaline.

by rp0806 on Sep 28, 2007 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"superstar"

to me, the term is more about how a player is perceived than about how good he actually is.

guys who do everything well (and markakis is definitely one of these guys) are criminally underrated in general. it's totally plausible that markakis will one day be among the best players in baseball. what i don't see happening is (for example) markakis leading the all-star balloting, appearing in more commercials than peyton manning, etc.

by jpahk on Sep 28, 2007 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That kinda reminds me of Bobby Abreu.

I don't think they're anywhere near the same player, totally different skills, but Abreu's always been criminally underrated due to being all-around very good but not a great power hitter or average hitter. One of my favorite players, until he joined the Yanks. Now I have to remember that I used to like him... sigh.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 28, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs