Ryan Braun's phenomenal season

by The Gottfather on Sep 26, 2007 10:55 PM EDT Comment 33 comments

I'm sure many of you have already noticed, but while looking at the Cardinals/ Brewers game tonight, I watched Albert Pujols hit his 32nd HR and get his 100th RBI in his 154th game. That's 7 straight seasons of 30/100. What really got me though is that Ryan Braun had 2 RBI's to bring his total to 93 and he has 33 HR's in only 109 games. With a few games left he has a serious shot at 35 HR and 100 RBI's.

I guess my real question is with a full season THIS season, what numbers could Braun have put up? I'd really just like to see some ideas from people who have seen or know more about him than me.

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Braun's numbers

What Braun has done in his 110 or so games here in '06 is what i expect him to do in full seasons throughout his career. This is a very special hitter, without question, but if he's really a .320-40-140 hitter I would be extremely surprised.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Sep 26, 2007 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why Not?

Why don't you think he can put up those numbers?

This is his first pro season with 500 Ab's, so far he has 40 HR, 100RBI's and and 18SB to go with a combined .346. Give him 600 AB's to do his work and I think that Braun can put up at least a few .300-40-120 seasons into his early 30's. Add in the fact that I also think that there is a good possibility that he throws in a couple of 30 SB years, you're looking at multi-MVP Award winner.

What is a major worry for me is he defense. If he continues to struggle like this MIL will have no other option but to put him in the OF. I always have the worry that struggling defenders will eventually carry their problems to the plate, which I hope for Braun and our sake never happens.

by Sage Sam on Sep 26, 2007 11:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

why not

Why don't you think he can put up those numbers?

well... he CAN, but i'll tell you why i think he won't. there are two general reasons and one specific to braun:

in general, people don't put up those kinds of numbers over an extended period. anybody want to guess how many hitters have ever had multiple .320, 40-HR, 120-RBI seasons in the history of baseball? without looking it up, i'll set the over/under at 10.
braun's 2007 is way out of line with expectations coming into this season. yes, he was certainly an outstanding hitting prospect coming in... but this year he has been ridiculous. usually when a guy has a ridiculous season, even at a young age, what happens in subsequent seasons is that he settles in at a level between his breakout year and his previous baseline. so next year, i expect braun to hit something like 290/350/550 with, oh, 35 jacks. that's pretty awesome, still, but not particularly near what he's done in 2007.
braun specifically still strikes out a ton, about a quarter of his at-bats. that's going to make it really tough to maintain a high batting average. i don't think it's a big deal, but it means he's more likely to be the next jay buhner than next pujols. by the way, buhner was a great hitter at his peak, so no whining about how i'm selling braun short. braun doesn't K quite as much as bone, but he doesn't walk as much, either. so he might have a higher average with a very similar OBP and SLG.

by jpahk on Sep 27, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

...as far as point number 2, I would say it's more a case of his expectations being too low rather than him overachieving...Braun has dominated every single level since he stepped on the UM campus (and probably before that) except for 227 AB in the FSL.

He's not Albert Pujols because of, as you said, the Ks, but you have to remember that he is a rookie...and is slugging well over .600...normal people don't do that. I honestly think that the best comp offensively is A-Rod: about .300/.380/.580 with plenty of steals, lots of homeruns, not so many doubles, and a better K/BB ratio with more experience.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Sep 27, 2007 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind that SLG

Can be inflated by a high batting average, and with the strikeouts already establishing him in this discussion as a reason he's not likely to hit for such a high average in the future, his SLG is sure to drop too.

Take a look at his ISO, which helps remove the singles out of the equation: .309. Still awesome, yes, but if he hit, say, .275, his SLG would drop to .584. While I'm familiar with Braun, I can't say I'm as much of an expert on him as prospects from my own team. However, I can note that his MiL career ISO is .259, and his BABIP this year is almost scraping .370. I think if I saw a player identical to him that I didn't know anything about, I'd say that his next chance at achieving numbers like that are a few years down the road when he really does reach his prime and little of it can be blamed on luck.

by elrey34 on Sep 27, 2007 4:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just briefly

Manny has 5 career 40+ HR seasons and 6 career .320+ BA seasons and 6 career 120 RBI seasons. Unfortunately, he's only lined them all up once.

Pujols has done it several times.

ARod has 8 career 40+ HR seasons and 8 career 120+ RBI seasons, but has only 1 career .320 season and has done it once. He has several other seasons just barely under .320 that would've made it.

Larry Walker did it once and just missed on the HR part in 2 other seasons.

Frank Thomas did it twice and just missed some others.

Ken Griffey Jr only had one career season of a .320 batting average and never did it.

Barry Bonds did it twice and frequently missed on the RBI part in other years, mostly due to the huge number of walks he drew.

Vlad Guerrero did it once and barely missed a few other times (.337/39/126 in 2004).

Jason Giambi barely missed getting 3 straight, but only ended up with one just missing with only 38 HRs in 2001 and only a .314 BA in 2002.

Juan Gonzalez averaged about a .315 BA, 44 HRs, and 140 RBI for 4 straight seasons from 1996-1999 but never even did it once.

Mo Vaughn did it once and just missed another.

Todd Helton did it twice.

Mike Piazza did it once and just missed some others.

Carlos Delgado did it once and just missed some others.

Sammy Sosa did it twice and just missed a few others.

Albert Belle did it once and just missed some others.

From historical perspectives, the following players did it at least twice:

Chuck Klein, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth (11 times), Hank Aaron, Duke Snider, Hank Greenberg, etc. (I'm too lazy to keep looking)

Pretty rare, although many players have excellent seasons that just miss the arbitrary cut off. For example, hitting .318 with 45 HRs and 157 RBI was practically routine for Juan Gonzalez for a while, but he rarely had the BA just quite high enough.

by dj on Sep 27, 2007 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My biggest concern is hitting righties

This season his splits are HUGE, against lefties he has a 1.467 OPS and against righties he is at .832. There are way more righties in baseball then lefties and I think this will drag him down a bit.

Second concern is a lack of discipline. 108 K's in 109 games isnt good, neither is 27 walks in 107 games. He did walk more in the minors, but it still wasnt that much.

Last concern is that his BABIP is high for his 16% line drive rate.

Add up all my concerns and I see him as more of a .300/.350/.550 player. That is a great player but not the perenial MVP candidate this year would have you assume

by Kanst42 on Sep 27, 2007 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mind set at the plate

A couple quick points on Braun (I only try to comment on the boards on players I actually have seen a lot of both in person and on the boob).

I highly doubt Braun is one of those guys that takes his fielding into the dug out with him. In interviews or seeing him interact with teammates he sort of has this "manny being manny" aloofness where he gives off the impression that things don't really bother him like that. Also he just loves to hit and is extremely confident in his abilities which has led to him "cadillacing" it after Hr's at times. I think that his low key attitude has made him a good mix with Prince and Weeks who are very intense from play to play and have emotional ups and downs that I have not noticed Braun having.

On defense, I have seen him make some ugly plays but I don't have much doubt he can stick the position long term. He has made some outstanding plays as well.

Another note on his K's in relation to batting average. There are certain hitters who K a lot but have an innate way of making consistent, hard contact like a Vladdy or Soriano who can hit a ball thrown pretty much anywhere at the plate and drive it out of the park. Braun could be one of those type of hitters. I'm not ready to put him in that category yet but he has had some hits that are hard to believe he hit so hard in relation to where the ball was coming to the plate. Check out the sept.18th Hr he hit off of Lidge. Slider close to his ankles on the outside he golfed out for a Hr.

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=mil&ym=200709

by joltin joe dimaggio on Sep 27, 2007 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

defense

the measure of a good fielder isnt one who makes the spectacular plays from time to time, its the one who makes the routine play every time

...just like to throw that in their

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 27, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

isn't that, like, an opinion?

and not one i see much support for anyway.

i think a better definition of a "good fielder" is someone who turns the highest number of balls in his general direction into outs.

generally speaking, i'd say that even the most error-prone fielders can EASILY compensate for their klutziness by having greater range.

for instance, the shortstop with the most errors in baseball has made 26 errors -- just 17 more than the starting shortstop with the fewest.

i think it's self-evident to anyone who watches baseball on a regular basis that the shortstop with the most range gets to (and converts into outs) significantly more than 17 more balls than the shortstop with the least range.

obviously, the fielder with the most errors isn't always the one with the greatest range (though, to the extent these two DO correlate, remember that a portion of the players "errors" occurred on balls other shortstops might not have even gotten to). but what is clear from looking at this is that "making the routine play every time" CANNOT be the primary measure of value for defensive players.

is it salient and upsetting to fans when a fielder misses a routine play? absolutely. but it's quite overrated in terms of value.

by bleedjaxblue on Sep 27, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

K's & batting avg

i still don't think you can K a lot and still post a consistently high avg, and your two examples don't really support your case. vlad has always had a very low K rate, actually. that's how he's able to hit .320, .330 every year. he's averaged only about 1 K per 9 AB over his career, and better than that over the last 5-6 years. you think of him as a free-swinger, and he is, but he doesn't strike out, so he can hit for average. soriano is different. he really does K a lot, once per 4.5 AB or so. but correspondingly, he's only ever hit .300 once (and he hit exactly .300 that year), and his career avg is .281. this is the kind of avg we can expect from braun if he doesn't cut down on his K's.

by jpahk on Sep 27, 2007 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Howard says hello

Ryan Howard was the 2006 poster boy for high strikeouts and a flukishly high batting average.

I forget the exact numbers, but Howards BABIP was something crazy like .455 in 2006. A lot of analysts said it was inevitable that he would come back down to earth in 2007. Though it's possible that he's some kind of freak of nature, as he managed a .430 mark this year, and part of the dropoff was due to his leg injury.

Braun's BABIP was .418 this year. Are both him and Howard big BA risks for next year?

Do power hitters traditionally post better BABIP numbers than average?

by slackerjack on Oct 2, 2007 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

best rookie season?

I'd still take Pujols' '01 over Braun's year this year. Ted Williams' '39 as well.

Probably even Mark McGwire's '87.

by Curtis Pride on Sep 27, 2007 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We Like ROY, We Like ROY

How about...
Fred Lynn '75, 331/401/566
Mike Piazza '93, 318/370/561
Carlton Fisk '72, 293/370/538

Not too shabby, considering eras. Still behind Pujols and McGwire, though.

by FlipYrWhig on Sep 27, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2007 ROY

These are crazy good comparisons. It's equally amazing to think that Braun is not even a lock for the 2007 NL ROY award.

by Lphizzle on Sep 27, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ROY

To me its Tulo. I know he played more games, but the numbers are going to be comparable and Tulo's defense helped completely turn around the team. While Tulo's D has been good, Braun's has been the complete opposite where hes forced to leave games earlier than they would probably like. Defensively hes a liability. The Rockies only turned it on when Tulo turned it around. Braun was a great part of that team, but their amazing start was happening without Braun. If think the Rockies will make the playoffs...if they do and the Brewers do not, I see no way it cannot be Tulo.

by fasterblade on Sep 27, 2007 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Any other year Tulo...

While I agree that Tulo was a major factor in the Rockies' turnaround in the second half, you could also attribute that more to Matt Holliday, turning the closer role over to Manny Corpas, or Garrett Atkins starting to hit again--not to mention the pitching they got from Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez. In Braun's case, yes, the Brewers had gotten off to a hot start, but they were starting to falter some when they called him up--if not for him, they would have been done in early August. While I think Tulo is a phenomenal pick most years, that Braun is closing in on a .320-35-100 without playing the first two months is too incredible an accomplishment to give it to Tulo. The whole value to the team thing isn't even really the point, being that it isn't the Most Valuable Rookie award. It's about who had the best season, and that's Braun.

P.S.: Ant, if things had worked out as they probably should have, you'd have Braun and I'd have Tulo in Taproot. LOL

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Sep 27, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ironically

The Brewers started to suck when Braun came aboard. Just goes to show you what a fluke the first 35 games really were for the Brewers if they got worse once a 35HR-100RBI guy was just planted in the middle of their lineup at the cost of nothing.

by FanBall on Sep 27, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense?

That defense is pretty bad, and adding Braun can't help.

by Kanst42 on Sep 27, 2007 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

While team performance isn't taken into account for ROY as it is MVP, Tolo's impact on the Rockies team is really overlooked. Add in the fact that he has had one of the greatest statistical season ever for a rookie SS and it would be a crying shame if he doesn't win.

by Sage Sam on Sep 27, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just imagine

just imagine what he would hav done if he started the whole year.. you'd be looking at 50+ homers with 130 driven in, Wow better than fielder and howard

Felix for Cy Young.

by King Felix 21 on Sep 27, 2007 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

K/BB ration bothers me

I can't believe the book isn't out on Braun to pound him in, in, in.

by JakeFree on Sep 27, 2007 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Numbers

Braun:
June: 10BB/22K/102AB
July: 9BB/27K/110AB
August: 5BB/26K/108AB
September: 3BB/25K/90AB

Also his stealing percentage dipped to 60% post All-Star break. Especially as he ages, the SBs will be gone. His .AVG will probably fall closer to .300.

He'll still give teams nightmares, but some of his game is going to be taken away.

by FanBall on Sep 27, 2007 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not so sure I agree

He'll always be a guy that K's 2x as much as he walks, but I expect him to double his walk totals (around 50 or 60 per) while retaining his aggressive hitting approach.

Below are Arod and Braun at age 23

Arod- 129 502 42 111 21 7 56 109 .285 .357 .586

Braun- 109 437 33 94 14 5 27 108 .325 .369 .634

I'm not saying he's Arod, but...

Everyone's Sb's decline with age, however I think Braun puts up better SB numbers for the next 2 or 3 seasons before running less. He had a 87% rate last year, 73% this season is a natural regression to better pitchers and catchers.

by Sage Sam on Sep 27, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh....

He's attempted just twice in the last month, he's 1-1, in August he went 3-2 and two of those steals came against Jason Kendall. If it comes against Kendall, it doesn't really count.

I'd be surprise if he steals more than 5 in a year again. Once teams caught onto to the fact that he could steal, Braun stole at about 60%. That rate doesn't cut it.

by FanBall on Sep 27, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would bet

any amout of money that Braun will steal 5 bases again. Do you have any idea how hard it would be for him not to steal 5 bases in a year? Thats one steal every 30 games.

by nyy601 on Sep 27, 2007 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My two cents

I think Braun is definitely quite a hitting talent but I can see him regressing next season. He definitely has weaknesses against righthanders. I've seen him look absolutely helpless against pitchers that obviously know what they're doing.

Eventually, I think he'll adjust but I could see him having a very disappointing sophomore year and then come back in 2009 with one of what will be his more "typical seasons".

His fielding IS really really bad and there is no way to defend it. They knew it was bad coming into the season. Normally I don't like fielding percentage as a stat but .900 is pretty bad. Pretty much every other fielding statistic has him at or near the bottom. If it wasn't for Fielder, I'd see him as a first baseman in the future (from what I've heard, most of his issues are throwing the ball). But, because of that, I see him following the Pat Burrell approaching and ending up in LF (remember, Burrell came up as a 3rd baseman, had to move to 1st because of Rolen and then had to move to LF because of that's right RICO BROGNA. I could see a similar move.

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 27, 2007 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Brogna

I thought Brogna was a decent (slightly above average) 1B. Am I incorrect?

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Sep 27, 2007 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he is remarkably overrated.

I have debated this and debated this with people. Someone mentioned this earlier but people LOOK at his SPLITS they are TERRIBLE. They have been this way from the get go. They are not getting better they are absolutely staying the same way. People will make adjustments. No one hits a side like that and has such an extreme split...NO ONE. So he has to DRAMATICALLY improve against righties next year to have a chance at 35 again.

I in no way think he is a bad player or not a special power hitter. I just think it is laughable that people want to put him among the best 3B already. He is having a wonderful hot streak but he is only a year removed from posting a .778 OPS in high A. Sure he heated up on a promotion to AA and it has continued. Next year will be FAR more telling than this year. I personally expect a severe regression. Something like .280/.330/.500.

by osoZ on Sep 27, 2007 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think he'll be an excellent hitter over his career, however.

by doublestix on Sep 27, 2007 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No chance...

...responses to all your points:

1. His splits are terrible? You must be talking about left/right because he is the exact same at home as on the road. As far as left/right...he will face both in the future just as much he has faced both this year, it's not context based like Tulowitzki's home/road splits...and his line against RHP (.284/.317/.526) would be pretty excellent OVERALL line for a rookie (not to mention that he might be having greatest season ever against LHP)...slugging .526 by itself would make him a strong ROY candidate.

I am still laughing at the fact that you called .284/.317/.526 HORRIBLE for a rookie...I'm not one to make personal attacks on the internet, but I will not hesitate in this instance to call that an incredibly stupid statement.

This High-A thing really bothers me.
.364/.435/.665 (ACC - 242 AB)
.335/.439/.606 (ACC - 155 AB)
.388/.471/.726 (ACC - 219 AB)
.355/.396/.645 (Low A - 152 AB)
.273/.342/.436 (High A - 227 AB)
.303/.367/.589 (AA - 231 AB)
.342/.418/.701 (AAA - 117 AB)
.325/.369/.634 (Majors - 437 AB)

So, there are 8 stints with about an equal number of ABs, 7 really good and 1 not so good...TELL ME, WHICH ONE IS THE FLUKE???? THE SEVEN GOOD ONES OR THE ONE BAD ONE! And who cares what he did in High A when he has proved himself in AA, AAA and the Majors. This is an even more incredibly stupid statement.

3. Hot streak?

June: .382/.435/.716
July: .345/.397/.673
August: .287/.330/.574
Sept: .311/.347 /.644

That is the OPPOSITE of a hot streak...it's remarkable consistent.

So either he is on the longest hot streak, or he is really good...I'll use Ockham's Razor and say the latter.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Sep 27, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I can't see how anyone thinks that he is a fluke. He is one of the best young hitters in baseball and his track record tell us to expect him to continue to be.

For me the only question is if he contiues to play third base or gets moved to the ourfield.

The splits argument, isn't an argument. He has batted .284 with 18 homers against righties, which is pretty darn good. It just looks paltry against .445 and a .955 slugging percentage.

Then again Mike Schmidt only batted .258 against righties for his career and look how he turned out.

by Sage Sam on Sep 28, 2007 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

splits

Then again Mike Schmidt only batted .258 against righties for his career and look how he turned out.

mike schmidt:

hammered lefties
won 10 gold gloves at 3B
walked 100 times per season
hit 548 home runs

in short, he was absolutely extraordinary at everything other than hitting for average against RHP.

more basically, i think the R/L splits for braun are a little worrisome. the problem isn't that he won't be facing lefties in the future--the problem is that he won't be hitting .400/.450/.1000 against them in the future. that's beyond unsustainable. the most extreme career split vs LHP that i know of is manny ramirez, who has gone .342/.450/.638 against southpaws. that's a pretty sweet line, but it's like 350 OPS points lower than braun's this year.

now, we shouldn't get all worked up over like 150 AB, but that LHP split is going to come way down, so he'll need to bring his RHP performance up to compensate for it.

by jpahk on Sep 28, 2007 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs