GCL Top 20

by tbach81 on Sep 24, 2007 2:12 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

Heres how BA ranked the Top 20 from the Gulf Coast League:

Michael Burgess, of, Nationals
Jesus Montero, c, Yankees
Ben Revere, of, Twins
Che-Husan Lin, of, Red Sox
John Tolisano, 2b, Blue Jays
Pedro Baez, 3b, Dodgers
Oscar Tejeda, ss, Red Sox
Neftali Soto, ss, Reds
Luis de la Cruz, c, Cardinals
Andrew Lambo, 1b/of, Dodgers
Devin Mesoraco, c, Reds
Kevin Aherns, 3b/ss, Blue Jays
Kyle Lotzkar, rhp, Reds
Scott Moviel, rhp, Mets
Jairo Heredia, rhp, Yankees
D'Marcus Ingram, of, Cardinals
Deryk Hooker, rhp, Cardinals
Daniel Berlind, rhp, Twins
Angel Morales, of, Twins
Tyler Kolodny, 3b, Orioles

Im very intrigued by Burgess. I know he had first round grades for the draft but slipped to the supplemental round b/c of work ethic and what not, but this has got to make him one to watch for next year. IMO Lambo is a big time sleeper for next year too

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burgess

i don't think it had anything to do with work ethic. people talk about his hillsborough high connection (linking him to dukes, gooden, sheffield, everett etc.) but from all i've ever read burgess himself is a good kid. to my knowledge he dropped mainly because of concerns about his contact ability.

by wily mo on Sep 24, 2007 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you

were right and that I was confusing him in my mind.... Still glad to see him doing well, since I got him in a fantasy league

by tbach81 on Sep 24, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lambo

I am very surprised he isn't ranked higher. The only reasons i can think of is his volatile attitude and his fringe average arm.

But damnnn, can he hit or what?

by npurcell on Sep 24, 2007 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The fringe average arm

seemed strange considering he was an outstanding pitcher.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 24, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

As usual . . .if a guy isn't as high as you think he should be, go ask BA themselves why he isn't higher.

by mrkupe on Sep 24, 2007 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

because BA answers every question ever asked.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Sep 24, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Not sure what your point is. If you don't understand why BA rated him No. 11 and you think he should be higher, then just go ask them what their thought process was. More than likely, they have a very reasonable explanation for why this was the case, even if you don't happen to agree with it.

I really do not see what you have to lose by asking a simple question. Maybe you'll get your answer and maybe you won't, but rest assured you DEFINITELY will not get one if you don't ask.

by mrkupe on Sep 24, 2007 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Withrow

is someone who SHOULD have made that list but was shunned by the limited number of innings he pitched.

Basically the argument for Withrow is that you just know, barring injury, he is going to breakout as a top pitching prospect due to the Logan White first round pitcher status.

from the chat on Withrow.....

Q: Ryan from Los Angeles , CA asks:

"I'm very surprised Withrow didn't make the top 20."

A: Chris Kline:

"Yeah ... nine innings just isn't going to get it done though. I was
disappointed I didn't get to write him up, especially after he sat 92-94
mph with his fastball in the playoffs and lit up 98 several times."

by npurcell on Sep 24, 2007 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

withrow

he wasn't shunned b/c of the low innings, he wasn't eligible for the list. you have to pitch a minimum number of innings to be eligible.

by fewgoodcards on Sep 24, 2007 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lin

Mildly surprised that CH Lin was ranked that highly. That said, all the reports seem rather glowing about this kid, so maybe he is deserving of it. Looks like, for his age, he had a solid year, but I didn't see him actually play, so dunno.

by toonsterwu on Sep 24, 2007 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Question?

At a guess, how many guys on this will make the majors at all?

I guess the first round picks have to get a cup of coffee, but I would be shocked in even 5 of these guys did anything at the ML level.

by elricsi on Sep 24, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

5 wouldn't be shocking

but 2 or 3 would be my guess. i asked a similar question about the AZL in the corresponding thread a few days ago, and somebody went back and checked out the 2002 and 2003 AZL top 20s. they had some nifty names further down the list than you might expect.

the way i see it, the complex leagues are a nice place for guys to start getting noticed for their tools. (mostly HS draftees and latin american kids, since college guys have already been scouted for their tools, and they often get skipped over these leagues anyway.) if a guy gets noticed in the complex leagues, he's on my radar screen. and if he then goes out and has some success in A ball, i start to think about putting him on top 100 lists.

just because these guys are a million miles from the majors doesn't mean they won't make it. what it does mean is that we have only a cloudy idea of which ones will make it.

by jpahk on Sep 24, 2007 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2002 List

Hanley Ramirez, ss, Red Sox MLB
Rudy Guillen, of, Yankees
Manuel Mateo, rhp, Braves
Leo Nunez, rhp, Pirates MLB
Jose Diaz, rhp, Dodgers
Elizardo Ramirez, rhp, Phillies MLB
Joaquin Arias, 2b, Yankees MLB
Alex Romero, of, Twins
Luis Hernandez, ss, Braves
Brent Clevlen, of, Tigers
Javier Guzman, ss, Pirates
Victor Prieto, rhp, Marlins
Miguel Mota, of, Braves
Zach Segovia, rhp, Phillies MLB
Joel Zumaya, rhp, Tigers MLB
Scott Moore, ss, Tigers MLB
Jake Blalock, of/3b, Phillies
Dustin Brown, of/c, Red Sox
Zach Duke, lhp, Pirates MLB
Brian McCann, c, Braves MLB

By my count that is 9 out of 20 including 2-3 All Star talents.

by cooper7d7 on Sep 25, 2007 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good year

I have lots of old BA annuals where they show the top prospects by league, and 3 or 20 making it from the GCL seems normal.

Also, that was a good point about a lot of guys not even on the top prospect list can hit the big time, since it's so difficult to predict from this early age.

by elricsi on Sep 25, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GCL vs AZL

hey, doesn't it seem like the GCL has a higher "hit rate" than the AZL in terms of turning prospects into big leaguers? maybe it's just to do with the fact that the twins and braves are in the GCL and their player development machines have been so good historically.

by jpahk on Sep 25, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA AZL Chat?

I believe it was in the BA AZL chat that the list author mentioned that the AZL has 8 teams while the GCL has, well, more. Therefore you would expect more 'hits' given more talent pools.

by cooper7d7 on Sep 25, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

luck

I grabbed the '02 list to kinda match up with the AZL lists and given that most of these guys are HS, it makes sense to give them ~5 years to develop. I suppose that '01 and '03 may have no MLB talent at all, giving us an average of 3 per year.

by cooper7d7 on Sep 25, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chavez

Yohermyn Chavez put up an almost .900 OPS for the Jays, after making whatever league list he was on last year. Little surprised he didn't make the top 20, scouts seem to love him too.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Sep 24, 2007 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Chavez

I thought that was complete BS too. The explanation BA gave was very weak as well, after someone asked. Chavez is the same age as the HS kids from this past draft and he tore it up hitting this year. Remember that he also had a very respectable year last year as well playing as a 17 year old alongside Travis Snider.

by metafour on Sep 25, 2007 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jairo Heredia

Watch out for Jairo Heredia, not many 17 year olds have his combination of stuff and command, 92-94 mph with a good breaking ball and a developing changeup...

"He just reminds me of Pedro Martinez when I was with the Dodgers in '93," Reed said. "You see the frame and wonder where it all comes from. This guy is the same way."

by metalboy15 on Sep 25, 2007 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs