Best Three Starters

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 9:55 PM EDT Comment 54 comments

Right now, based on current performance, if you had to go into a best of 5 or 7 series....

This was just discussed on tonights Jays telecast.

Halladay
Burnett
McGowan

I would go to war with this threesome.

Who would you counter with? Realizing of course that the the sample size is ridiculously small. LOL

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Halladay

would be HOF worthy if he could just stay healthy.

I'd prob be scared of Cleveland

Sabathia
Carmona
Byrd

by sagecoll on Sep 21, 2007 9:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Indians

Seriously?

Top two are close, but based on present performance level McGowan >> Byrd.

In the crap shoot that is the playoffs, I'll take McGowan and his K's every time over Byrd.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well

So would I frankly, but I'm just trying to throw out another option, an option nevertheless that will be in the playoffs. But yes I agree with what you say about Dustin

by sagecoll on Sep 21, 2007 10:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Playoff Option

I really don't think there is a better playoff option.

The Jays this year led MLB in ERA+ at 118, and McGowan and Burnett were 2nd and 3rd in the AL in OPS allowed at 0.630 and 0.647.

Basically, Wells was hurt and sucked, Glaus was hurt and sucked, Johnson got hurt and then sucked, Overbay got hurt and then sucked.

This year and next are the windows. If all of the hitters perform to career norms next year, and the pitching is close to this years............LOL

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 10:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hmm i'll try a few greg

Boston:
Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K

Atlanta:
Smoltz, Hudson, James

Oak:
Haren, Harden, Blaton injuries I understand

Angels:
Lackey, Escobar, Santana/Colon

Twins:
Santana, Lirano, Garza

Yankees:
Pettitte, Wang, Clemens/Hughes

KC!:
Menche, Grinke, Bannister

Detroit:
Bondo, Verlander, Rogers/Miller

Giants:
Lincecum, Cain, Zito

Padres:
Peavy, Young, Maddux

by JDSussman on Sep 21, 2007 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jered Weaver is who i forgot..

by JDSussman on Sep 21, 2007 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fixed

Atlanta:
Smoltz, Hudson, BENNETT

Fixed. ;-)

by mraver on Sep 21, 2007 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the twins keep Santana and Liriano returns to his dominant self. 2009 world series Giants-Twins and the first time ever Cy young is split between two pitchers in each league. Santana-Liriano and Cain-Lincecum.

Shut up it'd be cool

Jman

by Honda3speed on Sep 23, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In a heartbeat

I'd go with Lackey, Escobar and Jered Weaver over that trio. Especially considering experience (which you can't discount since you said in a 5-7 game series), Lackey has more playoff experience than the Jays' three combined, including a World Series Game 7 victory.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Sep 21, 2007 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd probably go

Beckett
Schilling
Dice-K

Peavy
Young
Maddux

by Havok1517 on Sep 21, 2007 10:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think it's obviously one of these two. Far and away.

by my dixie wrecked on Sep 21, 2007 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except

Dice-K has been extremely inconsistent during the second half. He has a LOT to prove, and Schilling is not a top tier starter anymore. I tip my cap to Mr. 20 Wins, but I wouldn't say the Red Sox trio is "far and away" better than that of the Jays.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Sep 21, 2007 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are right on

Beckett is unbelievable this year. His delivery is something I have usually seen a less than powerful pitcher use in an attempt to hide the ball and help increase "appeared" velocity. Instead, you have a pitcher who the ball is hidden until the last second and then explodes at 98 miles and hour. I don't know how anyone hits him.

Schilling thinks he is still a power pitcher. If you watched him against the Yankess - you could just see it coming. He will be fine for 3-4 innings and then implode by giving up the long ball. Dice K throws way too many pitches every time he goes out. It seems like he is approaching 100 pitches every time somewhere between inning 5 to 6. Even when he is not being hit, he gives up 3-4 walks giving teams a chance to put runs on the board.

Boston is in big trouble if they don't getting their hitting going again. That is not even talking about the bullpen - ugh!

by slickwdb on Sep 22, 2007 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dreaming

You guys are dreaming in technicolor.

Based on PRESENT performance...

Schilling and Dice-K are far inferior to Burnett and McGowan.

Maddux is basically a BABPIP lottery, and Young is in no way shape or form pitching as well as any of the Jays 3 starters.

I think Lackey, Escobar, and Weaver are a fair comparison, but I still think I would go with the Jays top 3 right now.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Burnett

is as likely as any other player on any of those rosters to come up lame between starts. Probably better. Neither Halladay nor McGowan has had so much as a sniff of big game experience.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 21, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Josh Beckett sure had a lot of BIG GAME experience when he pitched for the Marlins a few years ago. Are you freaking kidding me?

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uhm

Hello... mcFly! Think McFly, Think! Who was the MVP of the World Series in 2003? I mean, those are big games, right? The playoffs and World Series?
Maybe they didn't broadcast that one north of the border for you canucks...

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 21, 2007 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WHEN

WHEN he pitched for the Marlins. He didn't have any big game experience BEFORE that.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparison

I'm comparing todays Halladay and McGowan to the MARLINS Beckett.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well that makes sense

Since beckett isn't ON the marlins anymore.
How about comparing Halladay/McGowan to Clemens when he was on the Red Sox in 1986 putting up a 4.37 era v. Anaheim? You don't know how a pitcher will perform in the playoffs until he gets there. Schilling and Beckett have been their and shone like few pitchers ever do. Wakefield, Papelbon & Timlin have been there. Even Dice-K has experienced the greatest pressure his country had to give, as an 18yr old.
There's no way to know how Halladay or McGowan will perform. Burnett either, he missed almost that entire season.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 21, 2007 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Performance

There is no way to know how ANY pitcher will perform over a sample size of 8 to 15 innings.

All I'm saying is that right now if I had a choice..

Halladay...throwing very well, bulldog mentality, HATES to come out of the game.

Burnett...his curve is pretty well unhittable over his past 2 or 3 starts.

McGowan...a bit iffy against patient lineups, but he dominated the Sox his last time out.

Compare this to Escobar, who has been pounded in his last two starts. Probably 80% sample size and 20% leaving the ball up a bit. Lackey is probably equal to Halladay, and I take McGowan starting next Wednesday in a heart beat over Weaver.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

2 or 3 starts? Has Burnett been back that long? He must be due for another trip to the DL any day now.
Halladay is great, but I'll take beckett over him this season (plus he's a playof stud).
Schilling is by no means the pitcher he used to be, but I'd take my chances with him over Burnett in the playoffs.
There's also an important element in there that's being missed... the Sox are going to the playoffs, the Jays are going golfing.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 22, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Penny

I still think Penny should have been MVP, but I digress

by drwmsu1 on Sep 22, 2007 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP Lottery?

LOL! That's a funny comment, but also maybe the most ridiculuous one in the thread.

Not to take anything away from the Blue Jays top 3 starters, but Maddux isn't doing too shabby right now himself.

First of all, a GO/AO of 1.8 isn't exactly a random number generator.

Second, in his last 10 games, Maddux is 6-2, 3.38, 58.2 IP, 2 BB!!, 32 K.

You keep the ball on the ground and walk nobody, that's right, nobody, you are not going to give up a lot of runs.

Maddux has never been a strikeout pitcher. He is living proof that DIPS is a crock and it's ridiculous to call him a BABIP lottery.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 22, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Metty

Are you freaking serious??

Read my post. Your response is pathetic.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 10:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Clearly...

You're just a Canuck Homer who isn't aboot to actually let someone present a logical argument aboot this topic. This is aboot who you'd want in the playoffs eh? Are you just gonna rip guys aboot their choices and use your Canadian broadcast as the basis for your argument? Clearly you Canucks know a lot aboot baseball.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 21, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bias

No, it was a member of the Jays crew talking to a member of the YANKEES staff who said they wouldn't face a better top 3 in the playoffs.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

gregjp

stop being a jerk. you can disagree politely if you try.
"reply to this."

by jpahk on Sep 21, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Being a Jerk

I'm not being a jerk.

I had someone reply with top 3's that included pitchers that aren't even active. (not even bothering to read my initial post)

Then I had someone BE A JERK TO ME by doing the McFly thing while completely misunderstanding my point about Josh Beckett.

And who appointed you god and judge anyway? Mind your own freaking business.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay, right

i agree that metty didn't read your original post carefully. so what? that stuff happens. he posted a list of teams with good starting pitchers, contributing to the discussion in a totally civil manner, and you flamed him. instead of saying "i'm only talking about pitchers who are healthy and pitching well right now" you said "are you freaking serious?? your post is pathetic." that's just rude. (and confusing, since you didn't reply to his original message.)

i agree that crimson was a jerk. (everybody, raise your hand if you're surprised...) notice, crimson is not metty. feel free to flame crimson all you like (though, i'd prefer you do it somewhere else).

obviously, nobody appointed me god and judge. otherwise, you'd be in hell or jail :P ... i just think we can talk about baseball in a reasonable manner. (well, most of us.) you're not crimson, so don't start acting like him.

by jpahk on Sep 22, 2007 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well in a few years...

Kazmir, McGee, and Price.

by omambiyick on Sep 21, 2007 11:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I Agree

An awesome top 3 in a few years.

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Give me

Wade Davis :)

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Sep 21, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davis

I hope so man. I have him on my main fantasy team. :)

by GregJP on Sep 21, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

hellickson hasnt even been mentioned yet...nor niemannn....there are going to be some beatdowns courtesy of these Rays...seriously, are you jays, yanks, and bosox fans scared yet? bossman, delmon, c pena, c crawford, longoria, brignac, aki, jonny g...lord have mercy

by daveh33 on Sep 22, 2007 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BOSSMAN

BOSSMAN
BOSSMAN
BOSSMAN

Jay Bruce can DISAPPEAR

by ufoboy90 on Sep 23, 2007 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ha ha ha

How about the guy who is ACTUALLY ON THE TEAM and is GOOD...

James Shields?

184 k's

36 Walks

Ring a bell? I'm just playin'... McGee, Davis, Price are sensational prospects and the rays have a ridiculous amount of arms on the way but, WShields is YOUNG, GOOD NOW and I'd guess he could get better.

by casejud on Sep 23, 2007 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i must have been tired

how could I forget that BOSSMAN belongs in all caps....and yeah, Shields aint half bad...i like Sonnanstine too...

by daveh33 on Sep 23, 2007 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cubbies

Lilly
Zambrano
Hill

They may not have the flash but they can pitch.

by wibadger on Sep 22, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But you never know when

Zambrano and Hill have been frustrating to watch this year. They look Cy Young worthy for 2 starts and don't look capable of making the Orioles roster the next 3 starts. I am hoping the get it together and make a run - it would be awesome.

by slickwdb on Sep 22, 2007 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

I'd have to go with the Pads here...

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Sep 22, 2007 12:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So ...

this is basically a post to pump up the Blue Jays staff huh? I'm cool with that. Sure ... I'll buy that, over the past 2 months, a strong case can be made that the Blue Jays have the best 3-some.

I'm not sure that it means much ... other than that Jays pitching has been hot. Now, if they can do this the whole of 2008, particularly, Burnett and McGowan, with Halladay staying healthy, then it might mean something, because at that point, the Blue Jays could be contending.

And for this postseason, in a hypothetical, I'll take a couple other threesomes over them. Doesn't diminsh what the Blue Jays pitchers are done.

by toonsterwu on Sep 22, 2007 3:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Burnett

Is an injury waiting to happen. For a guy with a history of arm troubles, the Jays sure do like to abuse his arm. It's only a matter of time before he gets hurt again.

Assuming health isn't a factor, then yeah, the Jays might be the best top three in the American League. If you want the best three in the MLB, it's gotta be the Padres, and it isn't even close:

Peavy (ERA+ 174) over Burnett (ERA+ 136)
Young (ERA+ 147) over Halladay (ERA+ 122)
McGowan (ERA+ 121) over Maddux (ERA+ 105)

The Padres' top two has a decided advantage, and while McGowan has pitched better than Maddux this year, it's still not a great matchup for the Jays. Who would you rather have? A 25 year old with a total of 232 major league innings and a career ERA+ of 97? Or a 346 game winner with almost as many postseason innings (194) as McGowan has career innings? Besides, in a five game series, Peavy pitches twice...and that's a scary proposition.

For reference, the Red Sox top three of Beckett, Dice-K, and Schilling sports ERA+ of 142, 103, and 115, respectively. Not really on the same level as the Jays or Padres...but pretty good. Dice-K has really fallen off, hasn't he?

by ajohnst1 on Sep 22, 2007 3:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Padres

I agree that Burnett is an injury waiting to happen, but we're talking about about making 2 starts in the immediate future.

While the Padres top 3 have been much better this year, the recent numbers don't really favor them.

Peavy is Peavy, no argument there.

Young has actually been very ordinary recently. He has given up 23 earned runs over his last 31 innings pitched. Maybe a bit of fatigue, or more likely a bit of a correction toward his career norms. If I needed to start a pitcher against a playoff caliber lineup in a neutral park, I think I take Burnett over Young right now.

As far as Maddux vs McGowan, there is obviously a big difference in terms of experience. Still, McGowan recently dominated the Red Sox (albeit a depleted lineup)and I think in a one or two game crap shoot you have to go with the pitcher that has the greater chance of eliminating the short term lottery that is BABPIP.

I think an argument can definitely be made for the Padres, but based on recent performances I'd give the Jays top 3 a slight edge.

by GregJP on Sep 22, 2007 5:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greg

Sure you call call my post ridiculous and I put in a few guys who are hurt there.

But even considering that I'd still take the Braves, Yankees, Boston, Padres, Angeles for the playoffs.

The list i made was just some pretty solid top 3. However in a playoff situation I wouldn't want the Blue Jays instead of any of the guys i just mentioned.

by JDSussman on Sep 22, 2007 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool

You are entitles to your opinion, and I apologize for calling your post ridiculous.

I'm sure that after having said all of this, the Yankees will beat up on McGowan and Burnett over the next couple of days. :-)

by GregJP on Sep 22, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chill Dude

You start a diary asking for others opinions then you insult everyone who doesn't genuflect at the Blue Jays' alter. Saying that Metty's response pathetic was completely uncalled for. To me, it looks like he put more thought into his post than you did in your original post. Anyways, here are the teams who I think would be better in the playoffs with their ERA+ in parenthesis :

Dodgers - Penny (154), Billingsley (143), Lowe (115)

Braves - Hudson (130), Smoltz (146), James (106)

Padres - Peavy (174), Young (147), Maddux (106)

Cleveland - Sabathia (138), Carmona (146), Westbrook (100)

Angels - Lackey (138), Escobar (125), Weaver (108)

Mets - Pedro (165), Perez (124), El Duque (113)

Arizona - Webb (155), Owings (105), Davis (110)

Colorado - Morales (155), Ubaldo (114), Francis (112), Cook (115)

Boston - Beckett (145), Schilling (114), Matsuzaka (103)

Blue Jays - Burnett (136) Halladay (125), McGowan (121)

I'm surprised nobody has brought up the Dodgers yet. They completely outclass the Jays' trio. If you're going to take small sample sizes, then Pedro and the Rockies' pitchers count too. I would have gone with my heart and put down the Cubs as well but I didn't want you to have an aneurysm dude. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Sep 22, 2007 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

great call on the dodgers.

Billingsly is a stuf

by JDSussman on Sep 22, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and by stuf

I mean Stud.

by JDSussman on Sep 22, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Chilling

I'm chilling, thanks for the advice. :-)

IMO, some of the number 2 and especially number 3 starters you have listed would be pulverized by the Yankee and Red Sox lineups that Jays pitchers face on a regular basis.

You would really go into a short series against a quality lineup with Webb, Owings, and Davis?

A few of the rest I obviously disagree with, but you are entitled to your opinion.

by GregJP on Sep 22, 2007 11:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Thought I used the very cool "reply to this" feature.

by GregJP on Sep 22, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Because I think good pitching will shut down good hitting. If AZ does make it to the series, then Webb could start 3 games and I can see him winning all three. I also think that Owings/Davis are better than Suppan/Weaver from last year's championship team. Also, the D'Backs pitchers have to deal with the altitude and the cozy dimensions of their ballpark. Arizona has been a worse pitcher's park for the last 3 years running.

My biggest problem with the Jays' trio is that the next pitch could be Burnett's last. McGowan is pretty injury prone too. Plus, AJ is being ridden pretty damn hard in September with all his starts over 114 pitches for no reason whatsoever. That's just asking for trouble IMO.

All that said, it could also happen that if the Jays make the playoffs next year, they could blitzkrieg the competition. Just remember the funny thing that happened to the Cubs' multiple WS Championships with Prior/Wood/Zambrano, injuries suck. And so did Dusty Baker. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Sep 22, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McGowan

He really isn't injury prone in the sense that Burnett is. He had Tommy John a few years ago, and then he had diabetes that wasn't properly diagnosed.

Since the diabetes was brought under control, he basically hasn't missed a start.

Owings and Davis....I dunno. Davis was absolutely killed at Yankee stadium earlier this year, and the D-Backs pitchers face lineups that are generally inferior to the lineups Jays starters face.

I think that Halladay/Webb is a coin flip, and I favor Burnett/McGowan over Owings/Davis given an above average lineup to face.

I think the fact that the Jays duo strikes out significantly more hitters gives them an edge in a short series where so much luck is involved in terms of balls put into play finding holes or not.

by GregJP on Sep 22, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs