Clay Buchholz nearly taken out for pitch counts?!

by abbreviatedman on Sep 2, 2007 12:03 AM EDT Comment 14 comments

Sorry to overload the Clay diaries, but I found this fascinating. Quotes are my paraphrases.

Theo Epstein was ready to force Francona to take Buchholz out if he reached 120 pitches. He ended up at 115 pitches, but what if he hadn't had a superefficient last two innings? His career high was 94 pitches (I think), and he was at 92 after 7 innings. So he had 28 pitches to complete the next two innings. "He couldn't go that many above his career high," quoth the Boy Wonder.

Theo said that the kid's career came before any individual accomplishment, and told Francona after the 7th that if he reached 120 pitches, Tito was to take Buchholz out, and he was allowed to make it known it was Theo's fault. "I told him he could blame me." Fortunately for everyone but the Os, Baltimore made some quick outs. Extra important perhaps was Brian Roberts getting caught napping at first and picked off an inning earlier.

What do you guys think of the whole thing? As a minor league fan, I heartily applaud Theo having the guts to be willing to protect the kid's arm even if it would have a sh!tstorm of negative media (and fan) attention. As a guy who used to live in Boston, I can tell you that talk radio there would've gone INSANE. But it would've been the right decision, right? Right?

Even as a big fan of protecting arms in the injury nexus, I'm still not sure I could do that.

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Yes, it would have

been the right decision to make if he had gotten that far.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Sep 2, 2007 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Never cut-and-dry

No way to know. If his stuff was getting worse, he was laboring, mechanics faltering (any of the above, really, not all), then sure, pull him. But if he's looking as strong as he was in the 5th, leave him in, let him do it. There's nothing more magical about 120 than 115 or 125. You just don't leave him out there if it looks like he's tired.

by mraver on Sep 2, 2007 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

The older I get and the more I understand how my body works (and presumably how all bodies work) I'm more convinced by something Bill James wrote long ago in the Baseball Abstract (I think the one with the red cover) about Bret Saberhagen and fatigue, and how his managers blew his arm out by leaving him in for ridiculous pitch counts and complete games early in his career when it was completely unnecessary.

James said it wasn't the amount you work, but the amount you work when you're tired or hurting that exact a toll on your arm. It's really the same for anyone in any field -- you can work for 70 hours at the computer or cash register or assembly line a week if you're fine, but when you've already whipped or exhausted or feeling tingly or pain in your arm, one hour can do more damage than the previous 70 combined.

by Flynn Blake on Sep 2, 2007 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right,

and as a further support, we have the way long inning snowball on pitchers. Once a pitcher has thrown 25-30 pitches in an inning, he has less and less chance of avoiding further damage. For that reason, it's often best to remove a pitcher, especially a young one, when he's in big trouble and having a 30+ pitch inning even in the fourth or fifth inning. This is something that managers used to do, because they watched the pitcher's mechanics and body-language. Pitch limits are the right idea generally, but paradoxically a lot of stress on pitchers' arms was avoided in previous decades because managers relied on their eyes instead of on pitch counts. With pitch counts on their minds, managers think that they "need" to get 100 pitches out of the starter whether those pitches come through eight innings or through five innings. The latter is as stressful, most likely, as 150 pitches in nine innings.

by Vaux on Sep 2, 2007 2:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right move...

if they had taken him out. I'm not saying that the others who have posted here are wrong, but I think if he had gone 120 pitches, he should have been removed.

Buccholz said after the game that his arm was really tired after the 8th inning. But that the fans cheering were able to give him the extra adrenaline he needed to get those last three outs. Sounds to me like he maybe should have been taken out after 8 innings, but I won't fault Francona for leaving him in. This kid may or may not have a great career, we don't know. But I don't think this one outing will jeopardize his career. But what it did do is give him a moment in his life that he can always look back on and be proud of, even if he never pitches another major league inning again in his life.

"Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young and 11 Tim Lincecums." -uga007

by Boxkutter on Sep 2, 2007 6:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

really not as controversial as it sounds

92 pitches in 7 innings is around 13 pitches per inning... so he had to simply stay on that pace...

plus if he fell off pace, it would most likely been due to giving up a hit, in which case he wouldn't have been taken out during a no-hitter.

by SLK on Sep 2, 2007 6:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Blue Jays did it

This year, Shaun Marcum had a no-hitter going and had to leave In his first start (after the year in the bullpen), Marcum had a no-hitter after 6 innings, but had to leave because he had reached his 80 pitch limit. He had been in the pen before and had no chance to finish the game, so I had no problem with it. He went on to pitch 4 more innings of no-hit ball in his next start.

by parrot11 on Sep 2, 2007 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That deep in a game

I would have left him in for the no-no or pulled him if he lost it. I don't think one game of going over a pitch count would hurt him. They'll have to be more careful in the next couple of games. It is a chance to go for history. Glad they left him in for a chance at the no hitter.

by daveyork on Sep 2, 2007 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wrong move

If he reaches 120 pitches with 1-2 outs to go how can you pull him? Has Theo ever played baseball? Does he know how big throwing a no hitter is? I understand he is trying to protect his future #1 but its a no hitter.
120 pitches really isn't that much for a pro pitcher. It sounds like a lot because nowadays fans think 100 pitches is the point at which a pitcher should be taken out but its not that much for a 6'3", 190-200 pound man who works out frequently and has adrenaline pumping. I would have given him 130. Just give him an extra day of rest after that and he'd be fine.

by UncleBuck44 on Sep 3, 2007 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

-1

Complete games are an anachronism for today's pitchers. These guys are used to coming out after seven or eight dominating innings. Johan Santana was recently yanked with 17 strikeouts and a chance to tie the single-game record. No team wants to ruin the next Kerry Wood and no pitcher wants to be the next Kerry Wood.

by whichthat on Sep 4, 2007 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ridiculous question

"Has Theo ever played baseball? Does he know how big throwing a no hitter is? I understand he is trying to protect his future #1 but its a no hitter."

yes.
yes.
1 game v. 1 career. Easy decision.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 3, 2007 9:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's a no hitter, not a complete game

I'd take him to 125-130 pitches and its a pretty easy decision to make. Give him an extra day of rest and he'll be fine.
His arm isn't going to snap due to 10 extra pitches and if it did then it was bound to happen as UCL, rotator cuff and labrum tears are caused by wearing down over a longer period of time, not 10 minutes.

by UncleBuck44 on Sep 4, 2007 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs