Justin Upton through 131 plate appearances

by limozeen on Sep 19, 2007 4:11 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

48 flyballs (17 infield flies)
33 ground balls
33 strikeouts
14 line drives
11 walks
0 hit by pitch

Upton is showing the classic signs of a good hitter struggling on his first exposure to big league pitching. His strikeout rate is pretty bad, but what's really hurting his average are 17 infield flies. That's not typical of his minor league record, and probably indicates that he's getting fooled by major league stuff.

That being said, I love the 15 more flyballs than groundballs and I like the not-sickly LD% and BB%. There's plenty of room for improvement in these numbers, and nothing sticks out as particularly alarming.

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He'll be fine

A-Rod as a 19-20 year old in the majors hit .242 in 142 AB's with 8 BB's and 42 K's.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 19, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

-1

No he didn't.
No way.

Jay Bruce can DISAPPEAR

by ufoboy90 on Sep 19, 2007 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a 19 year old in Seattle in 1995

ARod's #s were: 142AB, 15R, 33H, 6Dbl, 2Tpl, 5HR, 19RBI, 4SB, 2CS, 6BB, 42K, .232/.264/.408, OPS+=70

by Locke000 on Sep 19, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh...

I wasn't actually disputing facts, just, uh, dripping with sarcasm

Jay Bruce can DISAPPEAR

by ufoboy90 on Sep 19, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A statistician's / logic student's nightmare

Look, this is just begging for it...

Just because A-Rod hit .242 as a 19-yr-old and then cranked 500 HRs does not mean that Upton will be fine...rather, it means that someone hitting .242 might still turn out OK.

How many other guys hit .242 at a young ARL and then were never heard from again? The way your response is phrased, you M*must* consider these guys, too. And I bet it's a long list.

A-Rod is the exception, not the rule.

by siddfynch on Sep 20, 2007 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree with the sentiment

but, specific to 19-year-olds in the majors who did anything NEARLY that competent, that IS the rule, with precious few exceptions. (i mean, the rule isn't "A-Rod," obviously; but the rule isn't too, too far from "Hall of Famer" either.)

this is one time where i think bravesin07's "logic" actually works out fine.

by bleedjaxblue on Sep 20, 2007 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

150 AB

Where does everyone think he ends up in the AB department for the year?

by delmonfan on Sep 19, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Conjecture

My guess is that he'll start about half the remaining games give or take a start. So that would give him about 16-28 more ABs. I'd say 140 would be a reasonable estimate. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Sep 19, 2007 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jack Hannahan through 113 ab's

.301avg/.872 OPS

i wonder why detroit never gave him a legit shot, especially with Inge struggling

by rayver723 on Sep 19, 2007 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

umm

what the hell does jack hannahan have to do with upton?

by npurcell on Sep 19, 2007 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

J__ __n

J_ ___n

It's like Lincoln & Kennedy, all over again. I just hope Upton doesn't have a physician named Hannahan . . .

by gogotabata on Sep 19, 2007 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

No real complaints here, none of the numbers look particularly bad given the context.

His raw talent is off the charts, and it's just a matter of getting him some experience. He might be amazing next year, or it might take him a couple of years for his game to catch up to his ability, but I really have no doubt that this guy is going to end up being one of the better players of his generation barring injury.