Which prospect is best?

by my dixie wrecked on Sep 19, 2007 3:54 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

I have one roster spot open and I need to choose a guy by Friday. There are nice prospects left and I'd like to know which player the group likes best. Here are the players I'm considering;

Carlos Triunfel, Jordan Shafer, Hector Gomez, Matt LaPorta, Brandon Jones, Alexei Ramirez.

Anybody have an opinion? Anybody know projection on Ramirez?

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LaPorta

Triunfel might have the best upside, but I'd go with the sure thing.

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Sep 19, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

what's this about upside, anyway? it's not far-fetched to see laporta as one of the top 5 hitters in baseball within a few years. how high a ceiling do you need?

by jpahk on Sep 19, 2007 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Not a stretch to call him one of the best five hitters in baseball? How is this not a stretch? That's actually kind of ridiculous, I think

He's got plenty of upside, but I don't think I've EVER heard him mentioned as a top-five-hitter level talent...

by Jgaztambide on Sep 19, 2007 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what kind of average he'll hit for, but LaPorta is a sabermetrician's dream come true. Excellent plate discipline, top shelf raw power, strong performance against good college competition . . .he's certainly got the ability to be an All Star caliber hitter at first base or left field, and we know what those types of bats are capable of.

by mrkupe on Sep 19, 2007 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

perhaps you misunderstood me

i didn't say he's one of the top 5 hitters in baseball, or even one of the top 5 prospects in baseball. he's not.

what i did say was that it's not a stretch to see him as one of the top hitters in baseball in a few years. of course there's no guarantee this will happen--there never is--but how could anybody be surprised if it did? he has a ridiculously powerful bat. of course i will be equally unsurprised if he's the next paul konerko, a good but not dominating hitter.

seriously, though, my comment wasn't even really about laporta. it was mostly about the idea of "upside." for example, travis hafner was the best hitter in the AL in 2006. did anybody think that he was going to be so good in 2001 or 2002? i liked his minor league stats, and i thought he could be an above-average hitter... but not a 308/439/659 monster. matt holliday is probably the best hitter in the NL this year. did anybody see that coming a few years ago?

maybe i'm being misled by instances of guys hitting their 99th percentile projection (which, after all, 1 out of 100 players will do), and "upside" is really a stand-in for something like their 85th percentile projection. in which case, okay, maybe laporta's upside is not necessarily MVP-caliber. but i'm not sure what it would take to convince me.

by jpahk on Sep 20, 2007 5:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

LaPorta is the most MLB ready guy, I think, from the list above.

I also agree that Triunfel has the most 'upside' at a weaker position, but again, who knows if he will ever reach it.

I don't know the format of your league, and how long you are able to hold rookies, etc. Personally, I would assess the places you are strong/weak now, and where you perceive yourself strong/weak 3 years from now. Based on that take either LaPorta or Triunfel.

by NewKidInTown on Sep 19, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Addendum

LaPorta is the most MLB ready (with the most upside on the list). Arguably, Brandon Jones is just as MLB ready, but I think LaPorta has a higher ceiling.

Sorry for any confusion.

by NewKidInTown on Sep 19, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I need help in the near future

Good insight so far. Thanks.
My first year in the league was '06 and I just went after talent, regardless of age/level. Therefore, my team is prospect heavy but it's really coming together. However, I'm really still just trying to acquire "talent". My team will probably be in contention in '09 and beyond.
It sounds like you guys like LaPorta quite a bit.

by my dixie wrecked on Sep 19, 2007 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I agree with Joba 100%.

by NewKidInTown on Sep 19, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LaPorta

is probably your best bet. Triunfel will be good by '10.

Member: Coalition For The Advancement Of Greek Baseball Players

by fischbowl on Sep 19, 2007 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

la porta

gotta go with him here. brandon jones will be productive, truinfel has outstanding long term potential, schafer has come on strong but...laporta has too much upside too soon to pass up.

Babe Ruth and Travis Snider back to back!!!

by realityconquest on Sep 19, 2007 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LaPorta

Quick question about LaPorta, what position is he supposed to play in Milwaukee? From what I see you have 1B (Fielder), RF (Hart) and LF (soon to be Braun) wrapped up. LaPorta can't play third and the Brewers cannot afford to keep Braun at third if he continues to be anywhere near as erratic as he has been this season. Add in the fact that Rickie Weeks will be playing CF (blocking a move by Hart there) in the next two years and I don't know where LaPorta will fit in unless he absolutely kills the ball.

Am I wrong in this assumption?

by Sage Sam on Sep 19, 2007 9:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure Braun should move

Alot of rookies are going to be erratic defensively. Braun isn't ever going to be a gold glover, but he probably should be able to stay at 3B.

by acerimusdux on Sep 19, 2007 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I'm not sure why you're so convinced Braun has to move off third. He has, of course, been very bad this season. But it's not hard to imagine him improving. He has shown improvement through the course of this season.

I'm also not sure why you think Weeks will be moved to the outfield so decidedly. Weeks defense is significantly better than in the past and he is becoming a fine defender with superior range.

I don't think either are out of the question, but they are far from foregone conclusions, especially in the former.

by kschellenger on Sep 19, 2007 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I think that Braun is just too much of a butcher at 3b and eventually his poor defense will catch up to him and effect the rest of his game. He has a great arm, stick him in RF where he can be an asset.

I think the same goes for Weeks, 2b has continually kept him banged up and while his errors have dropped this year, so has his zone rating (all the way down to .732). Moving him to CF (and Hall to 2b or 3b) would more than likely keep him healthier and allow him to focus more on improving his contact at the plate.

That leaves LaPorta fighting out Corey Hart (or Cole Gillespie) for a position down the line. I think LaPorta may eventually win out, but it won't be for 2 or 3 years down the line when his defense is MUCH improved.

by Sage Sam on Sep 20, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alexei Ramirez

no guts no glory......i expect to see him in the bigs next season and likely with a big market club......he may have multi-position flexability and two of those possible positions are rather thin (2B and SS)......a line of .280/.350/.475 would not be surprising, and that is handy at a MI spot

laporta - great prospect, sure, but won't be up till september 2008 at the earliest......i agree he'll likely be the better player, but it might take awhile

triunfel - love the kid, but again, ramirez will have an immedaite impact vs. waiting 2 more years min for triunfel to be up

by Wheelhouse on Sep 20, 2007 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where do you get September 08 from?

Have the Brewers said anything? Because it's not like they've been shy about pushing prospects in the past.

LaPorta's bat is already very polished, and I personally think he'll be up by the middle of next year.

by mraver on Sep 20, 2007 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bat is very close

but that is only part of the game.....the glove has a long ways to go.......this is the guy who some scouts were concerned wouldn't be able to handle 1B at the MLB level, let alone LF!

i think it will take him at least a full season of seasoning in the minors before his defense is serviceable in LF

by Wheelhouse on Sep 20, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why wouldn't that line be surprising?

I don't even think he put up numbers that great in Cuba, although they're tough to verify. Don't forget that the fields in Cuba are generally Japan-sized as well, so power doesn't necessarily carry over well.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Sep 20, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

power potential

he likely will not go deep as often as he did in cuba, but i expect he'll hit a lot of gappers......he's in his prime and has experience against international competition, and held his own in the WBC........

a .475 SLG would put him top 5-7 at the position, and i personally would not be surprised to see a guy with good power potential rank that high at a very shallow position.....18 HR, 28 doubles, and 7 triples does not seem out of the question IMO

by Wheelhouse on Sep 21, 2007 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Atlanta fan here

Don't take Jones. If you want to take someone from the Braves system, take Schafer.

Jones will likely platoon in LF next year with Matt Diaz and, barring an explosion of performance, he'll be a decent-but-not-great corner OF at some point down the road.

But I honestly think LaPorta will be a starting ML player before Brandon Jones will.

Guess I should also add, also a Gator fan. :-)

by mraver on Sep 20, 2007 9:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs