Cameron Maybin through 46 plate appearances

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2007 10:54 AM EDT Comment 38 comments

Strikeouts: 17
Groundballs: 14
Flyballs: 10
Walks: 3
Hit by pitch: 1
Line drives: 1

His minor league numbers indicated that this would happen, and it did. Now let's hope he can make the adjustment, because any question about whether he could hit a grounder or strike out 2/3 of the time at the Major League level has been answered.

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Is this an alternate ego of Bravesin07?...

...why don't you take a look at the last 4 words in the title of the diary, then make a judgment on whether or not "any question has been answered."

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Sep 18, 2007 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how many

plate appearances before you agree?

200? 1,000?

Serious question.

I'm curious how much rope people give prospects who have a clear deficient area (in Maybin's case it's heavy on the Ks and groundballs, and light line drives) that they need to work on

by Galt on Sep 18, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For a 20 year old

about 1000

by Kanst42 on Sep 18, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

what about the 708 AB in the Minor Leagues? He already has shown these tendencies. Now they are carrying over the sample size doesn't matter.

by Metty5 on Sep 18, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Completely different

He is still learning as a baseball player and still maturing physically, if he is still the same player at 23 as he is right now then I am willing to change my view on him, but you have to give a guy a chance to learn and change his approach.

by Kanst42 on Sep 18, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude

Even if Maybin's BABIP was .417, he'd be batting .262/.326/.405!

I'm not claiming that Maybin will continue to put up the peripherals he's putting up, I'm just saying that if he does, expect a .600 OPS. He's doing the exact same thing he did in the minors...the difference is that it doesn't work at the big league level.

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I dont think he is actually read yet

The majors are a big adjustment, the talent gap is huge between the majors and the minors. Maybin isnt perfect he needs to adjust just like any other prospect. I will never right a guy off until he has had plenty of time to try and adjust and make up for any problems

by Kanst42 on Sep 18, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

was supposed to be ready not read

Damn I wish there was an edit option

by Kanst42 on Sep 18, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rushed

He's not ready to play in the bigs yet. I'm still trying to figure out why Detroit rushed him from AA to the majors after only a few games, albeit sensational ones.

He belongs in AA right now and I hope that he starts there next year.

"fortunately, scouts believe Gomez has enough tools to replace one of his appendages a la Edward Scissorhands" - bleedjaxblue, 7/5/07

by jc3 on Sep 18, 2007 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah he was rushed

Hell even Manny and Vlad did nothing in their short call ups. Justin Upton is only hitting .231 himself. Give these guys 3 years.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 18, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Finally, a voice of reason!

Maybin has hit 15 balls out of the ballpark and they were ALL GROUND BALLS! That is what i call an amazing prospect.

2 things and they arwe FACTS and not really up for urgument to any serious degree...

The young man is 20 years old and almost NOBODY is good in the big leagues at 20 years old including most Hall Of Famers
46 abs really dont meen much

Get real guys!

What EXACTLY are you guys trying to SAY? That he cant play? that he wont be good? he'll be a total bust? Go ahead and say it then.

You'll be wrong, I think but, thats okay.

by casejud on Sep 18, 2007 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is trying to say

That people have doubts about Maybin because of ground ball and strikeout tendencies. I agree that his major league stats are a small sample size, however he does have these tendencies and I don't see them changing. I've never been high on Maybin, and i think all that Lim is stating is that Maybin needs to improve these tendencies.

by Metty5 on Sep 18, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

Last year, I noticed these trends in Maybin's peripherals, which were being covered by his tremendous BABIP. I predicted that these tendencies would come back to bite him in the big leagues. Lo and behold, he is striking out and grounding the ball in 2/3 of his MLB PAs so far, and lo and behold, a sub .600 OPS.

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not

No, saying he has tendencies is one thing (no one is arguing that he has GB tendencies, please note that). Saying these tendencies will probably damage his OPS is another.

Saying that his performance in 46 PA proves that he can't be a good hitter with these tendencies is quite another. It is evidence of his conclusion but not proof, and please spare us "I told you so" after such a small sample size.

by ian on Sep 18, 2007 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude

The "I told you so" is just me saying that you can't do what he's currently doing and succeed. There were those who were convinced that Maybin was so special that he could strike out and ground the ball as often as he did during his minor league career and succeed in the majors. 46 PA is a telling enough sample to prove that wrong (my guess is that if you looked two standard deviations, aka 95% confidence that the parameters contain the true value) of Maybin's OPS, you'd find there's a 95% chance that his "true" OPS is somewhere between .300 and .700. That ain't good.

by limozeen on Sep 19, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybin haters

limozeen - you're completely and totally overreacting here man. 46 plate appearances and you are bragging about how you "called it"

I'm not even a Tigers fan but I think Maybin has future 30/30 potential. He had a decent year for power (15 homers between 3 levels and missed a few weeks with injuries ) and he's 20 years old!!!!???!!!

Seriously some of you guys need to relax with these prospects. How old are you guys? Odds are if you're 19 or 20, you're working at a CD shop or Target. These guys are playing in the Major Leagues. They aren't superhumans, they are baseball players. They need to adjust to things in their lives just like you do. Cut them some slack.

by loopdog on Sep 18, 2007 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

read

"I'm not claiming that Maybin will continue to put up the peripherals he's putting up, I'm just saying that if he does, expect a .600 OPS."

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Read Above

You were 15 minutes behind Limozeen so I guess you read what he wrote below me.

Limozeen has been on this site for an extremely long time and has contributed much more intellectual ideas that are based on actual stats and observations then you have in your 6 posts. So show him some respect.

Next, you can't deny this tendencies in Maybin's game over 708 minor league and 46 MLB ABs. And they are only supposed to get worse not better. Of course they can change, they could change, they should change, but they haven't shown improvement. Many don't believe his SO/GB rates aren't going to drop and he wont be the superstar people project. I personally don' see it. He doesn't have the contact skills. His ceiling is there, but I don't think he gets there. I'm on record saying he is going to be a bust. His ceiling is high, he is a great prospect, but I don't see him getting to the level people think he could.

by Metty5 on Sep 18, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah and your probably high on your mets

outfield prospects in Gomez and Martinez. Gomez has a 10 X's better chance of busting than Maybin. Martinez might be hampered with his wrist injuries forever. Maybin will probably not be a superstar but a solid player.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 18, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

First, I've never been that high on Gomez. And coming from you thats amazing. Secondly, I like Martinez but also said he was overrated. What basis do you have for speaking?

by Metty5 on Sep 18, 2007 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

because you think Maybin will bust

and that your a mets fan. Sorry if I didn't know you don't like Gomez as prospect. By the way would you of traded Humber and Gomez for Cordero. Do you see Gomez shipped out this winter.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 18, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol good reasoning

no I wouldn't have done that deal. Cordero is overrated his stuff doesn't match his numbers imo. Gomez probably wont be traded unless its for pitching. I think the Mets like him a lot, but some teams might overvalue his services.

by Metty5 on Sep 18, 2007 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well you need pitching that's for sure

nice implosion for Maine tonight. Your team doesn't even have a 3rd starter right now. Tommy helps in the postseason but Pedro might have to be the #2 right now since El Duque is hurt again and Perez and Maine are awful.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 18, 2007 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he isnt

hatin on maybin, and the 46 PA's arent where he is drawing his conclusion from, its from his minor league numbers and they mirror his major league numbers

obviously becuase we arent talented enough to be baseball players we cant try and objectively critique them? maybin has some of the best tools in baseball, but he wont get to use them if he cant stop striking out and hitting groundballs all the time

by bmxstreetrider86 on Sep 18, 2007 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Interesting post, limo. I haven't watched Maybin play, so I'm wondering if there's something mechanical about his swing that lends itself to groundballs and/or K's. Does he have a long swing? A hitch? I assume that I'd have heard if he did, since everyone gushes about his tools...but I don't know.

Anyway, you raise a good point, and it's too bad people can't read. Maybin needs to show that he can make contact and hit the ball in the air before he can be considered an elite prospect. At this point, where would you all rate him? He might not even make my top 25...his peripherals are very worrying. Yes, he's young, but is there any precedent for a batter with such extreme groundball tendencies breaking such trends? I'm not saying there isn't; that's a genuine question.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 18, 2007 9:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Meant to say

He might not make my top 15...he'll be in the top 25 for sure, but he might be close.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 18, 2007 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ummm

He's playing like once a week I think. Its very easy to play at the mlb level effectively when you have 1 or 2 or pinch hits a week.

No one said he's a finished product. Is Justin Upton's numbers that different? Metty you seem almost gung -ho as this Pride kid about letting it be known you cannot stand Cameron Maybin as a potential MLB'er. Give it a rest, we get it.

Seriously, let the kid develop and I promise life will go on as regularly scheduled.

by Bondomania on Sep 18, 2007 11:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dude

If you're going to argue, will you please argue my point instead of dodging it and making disingenuous comparisons?

by limozeen on Sep 19, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam

I'd rate him in my top 25, I think. But I do think he's slipped in my eyes since last year, since he's not making the strides necessary to become a good MLB player. He needs to stop striking out, stop grounding out, and start driving the ball. He's made no strides on any of those things this year. The Tigers better realize what they have and what he needs to do, because his development will be severely stunted if they keep letting him coast through bad minor league pitching and defense on his talent.

by limozeen on Sep 19, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

said thing is BA will put him in the top 5

Callis said he'd take Maybin over Rasmus.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 19, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

great argument bondo..

Instead of attempting to bash me for making my opinion based on my observations and beliefs why not say why you disagree and he will be successful.

Maybin has hit a ground ball or has struck out in 61.5% of his PA through his minor league career. That will not stand up well for his major league career. he just doesn't have the contact skills.

So yes i'm the minority voice. So hate on me like a minority, but at least give me the courtesy of a counter argument.

by Metty5 on Sep 21, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

K-Rate

I wasn't aware that Maybin whiffed 36% of the time in the minors?

Here is the real question. Who are the position prospects that you'd rank ahead of Maybin right now?

by rwperu34 on Sep 19, 2007 3:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bruce,Maybin, Longoria

by Bravesin07 on Sep 19, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops Bruce, Rasmus, Longoria

by Bravesin07 on Sep 19, 2007 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Your Freudian slip is telling.

by rwperu34 on Sep 20, 2007 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least

Bruce, Rasmus, and Longoria are all locks. I'd consider putting Wood ahead of him, because Wood (who, like Maybin, has trouble making consistent contact) plays a more important position and has shown much better power in the minors. I think Wood is less projection than Maybin at this point.

For me, though, it's not the position players that are keeping him out of my top 15. It's the pitchers.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 19, 2007 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching Prospects

BP did a piece on pitching prospects vs hitting prospects and the results were very predictable. Hitters had a much higher sucess rate.

The problem with Wood is, he's two years older and whiffs the same amount as Maybin. No way can he be rated higher without the love of the scouts, where Maybin has a big edge.

Adam Jones is not going to be eligible, but I do agree, you can make a strong case for him, despite the fact that he K'd nearly as often as Maybin, walked less, and had a lower OPS+.

Laroche is a great prospect, but when you're dealing with a 20 y/o top prospect vs a 23 y/o top prospect and the 20 y/o is only going to be one level behind, the 20 y/o is going to win out. Especially when the 20 y/o is described as toolsy and raw and still had a higher OPS+.

Snider, Brignac, and Antonelli are not even in the same area code as Maybin.

by rwperu34 on Sep 20, 2007 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs