How High Can Carmona Fly?
by Yakker on Sep 16, 2007 12:50 AM EDT
43 comments
OK, there's just no way to ignore what Carmona's doing. Since the All-Star Break, Carmona's put up a 2.19 ERA in 13 starts, with a 65/24 K/BB rate. He's also got 17 Ws on the year, and tonight's gem against the Royals dropped his ERA to 3.07, which leads the AL. His 64.9% GB rate also leads the AL, and the strikeouts may have also started to come, as he rung up 9 today (with no walks) against KC.
So, the question is, how good can Carmona be? He doesn't strike out quite as many as you might like (K/9 of 6.14 since the ASB), but he's otherwise got unreal stuff. But don't just take my word for it. Here's what Torii Hunter had to say about Carmona's slider, after a complete game shutout by Carmona earlier this year:
"It's not normal. He's not even human. It was so scary, I thought I was hung over. That dude is filthy. We've been struggling, but even if we had been playing good, we wouldn't have beaten him. If you've never played the game, listen to me, I'm a hitter. Right-handers have no chance unless they get lucky and get a hit on a broken bat."
0 recs |
43 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Simple --> Another Juicer
by RedHopeful on Sep 16, 2007 1:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another Twin Fan
by RedHopeful on Sep 16, 2007 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Junk?! Carmona's stuff isn't Junk!
No offense, but "great junk" sounds almost like an oxymoron to me - how do you throw great junk?! :-)
If anyone throws "great junk," in my opinion, it's Jamie Moyer. From what I have read and heard, batters go back to the dugout after they've been retired by him, saying to the effect, "How did he get me out? He's only throwing 84 MPH."
No offense, but from what I have read and heard from many around the league, that's NOT what they've been saying when they've been retired by Carmona. From Torii Hunter to Michael Cuddyer to Jim Leyland to Zack Greinke and more, I've heard words like,
"Wow!"
"His stuff is electric!"
"His stuff is amazing!"
"His sinker is unhittable when it's on!"
"He's not human."
No offense, but I don't hear guys talking about Jamie Moyer or similar pitchers (Mike Maroth, etc.) in the same manner, so saying Carmona throws "junk" is inaccurate in my opinion.
Also, no offense, but saying a guy is having a career year in his first season also seems to be jumping the gun a bit in my opinion. How can you determine if a guy is having a career year when he hasn't even pitched a full year in the Majors as a starter? You need at least 3-4 years to get a feel of what his "norm" is as a pitcher before I think you can even consider making that assessment.
Frankly, we don't know what Carmona's "norm" is - this could be his "norm," then again, it might not be, but you'd need at least 3-4 seasons of data in my opinion to get an idea of what his "norm" is before you can even make a somewhat accurate assessment of what a "career year" is for him.
Plus, no offense, I take it you're NOT saying that Carmona and Buerhle are that similar - Carmona has far greater stuff than Buerhle; from what I have seen of Buerhle, he doesn't have a pitch comparable to Carmona's sinker. If you're talking about career-wise, I could maybe see it, though it wouldn't surprise me if Carmona is a bit better than Buerhle, especially since Carmona has the stuff to be a frontline starter; in my opinion, Buerhle is a passable #2 starter because he has good control and he can usually keep the big inning from happening, plus does a pretty solid job controlling the running game, but based on stuff alone, Buerhle is not what I think of when I think of a frontline starter, whereas Carmona does fit that bill in my opinion.
Also, regarding Carmona's stuff - Carmona has worked more on his curveball and changeup, and when he has great command of them like he did against the Royals, his K rate is more than acceptable - 9 in 8 IP. As Uncle Charlie mentioned, Carmona's K rate has actually increased in the second half over his overall season average, so if anything, he's actually increased his K rate, which is certainly a good sign, especially since teams are now seeing him for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th times, yet have had no better success hitting him, and in some instances, have even done worse against him.
Combine that with the fact he has a GO/AO ratio of 3.33, which leads the league, and he doesn't have to strike out a ton to be successful, or even dominant. In fact, if I'm correct, yesterday was the first time all season that he's had more FOs than GOs in any of his starts (I could be wrong on that, but I'm pretty sure it hasn't happened more than 2-3 times at most this season,) and even then, he still got 7 GOs out of the 15 outs where he didn't record a KO.
Also keep in mind that RHP Roy Halladay, who's considered one of the best pitchers in the game (some on MinorLeagueBall even ranked him #2 only behind Johan Santana, especially coming into this season,) has had a K rate under 7 since he had a K rate of 8.20 back in 2001. Even in his Cy Young-winning season of 2003, his K rate was "only" 6.90, with a 57% GB% ratio, which I believe is under Carmona's GB% ratio (I think Carmona's GB% ratio is 62% - 406 GOs/654 total outs, as he has 122 FOs and 126 KOs.)
Now, realize I'm not saying Carmona is the next Halladay (though I know a few here on MinorLeagueBall think he could be the next Halladay,) but I AM saying that you don't have to strike out as many as Johan Santana to be considered a great pitcher, as Halladay has proven that over the years.
That is why I think Carmona can continue to perform at a high level, comparable to what he is doing now. Yes, LHH have been able to hit him a little better, but even when they are able to hit that sinker the other way, they're not hitting it that hard, and most of the time, that sinker has been up. When he gets it down around the knees on the outside corner, that ball is difficult to hit with any authority the other way, so it's not like LHH have started tattooing him by any means - they are hitting .281, but only slugging .386, so it's mostly the seeing-eye single, or sometimes, a solid single the other way. He'll have to keep working on his offspeed stuff to counter that more, which he is continuing to work on and make progress with, as evidenced by his very strong performance last night against the Royals, when LHH like Alex Gordon, David DeJesus, and Mark Teahen went a combined 2-18 (.111 BA.)
Therefore, calling Carmona's stuff "junk" isn't accurate in my opinion, and essentially, is short-changing what he's doing. Throwing a power sinker is NOT junk - did people call Kevin Brown's power sinker junk? Do people call Brandon Webb's power sinker junk? I don't think so, so calling Carmona's sinker "junk" isn't the best way to describe his stuff, and from the comments we've heard from several ML players and coaches, I highly doubt they'd call Carmona's stuff "junk."
Just my 2 cents - no offense.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 16, 2007 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 +1 +1 +10000
by FishHead on Sep 16, 2007 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
age and usage
I honestly hope he doesn't end up hurting but just want to point out the fact that expectations should be tempered....
bc
by bluechipper on Sep 16, 2007 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe he's out of that age-related injury...
Hello bluechipper,
You bring up a valid point, one that has been brought up on LGT a time or two over the course of the season.
However, from what I understand, the age-related injury nexus is from 18-22-YO, I believe; Carmona is 23 (will turn 24 in December,) so I believe he is out of that injury nexus. Granted, that doesn't mean he's immune from injury, but I don't think he's in that nexus anymore (could be wrong on that.)
Also, as was also discussed on LGT a month or two ago, we're thinking that Carmona's being stretched out as a starter earlier in his career will hopefully help him stay strong and injury-free during this season. Realize that Carmona has thrown as high as 173.2 IP in 2005 as a starter between AA Akron and AAA Buffalo, so he is just past that 10% increase recommended for a pitcher's workload the following year. In Carmona's case, it's been 2 years, and while that's not the norm, he does have experience throwing a good number of innings before, so I suspect the Indians are thinking that he'll remain healthy. Hopefully, he will.
Probably, if they get the chance to skip him a start and/or cut back on his IP in his last start or two, they may do that, just to keep the IP from piling up too much, though they certainly don't want him to get out of rhythm either as October approaches.
Like I said, you bring up a valid point that several Tribe fans have thought about, but I doubt the Indians would do anything to risk their prized young arm, so I suspect they believe he can handle the workload based on his past experience as a starter, even as near as 2 years ago. Only time will tell if it is the right move, but hopefully, it will all work out well for Carmona and the Indians.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two points
- I always thought of the "injury nexus" as extending through age 24 or so, but I'm not really sure where I heard that.
- Regarding the innings, I wonder if it's less of an issue for Carmona since he throws so many sinkers? I'm not a former pitcher, so perhaps someone who is could chime in, but I always understood heavy sinkers to be fairly easy on the arm (unlike, say, sliders).
by Yakker on Sep 17, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel all warm and fuzzy
Just to clear up the career year part, I feel as though this IS pretty much his ceiling. He isn't going to have an ERA in the mid 2's, strike a batter an inning, or win 25 games. Sorry if it sounds negative to you, but most of us hype young prospects all the time and salivate of what COULD be when they show such wonderful glimpses. Rarely does it ever pan out for a full career. Naturally, I'd much rather prefer to have 3+ years of Fausto stats in the majors to support this theory but I don't. Just a gut feeling. Plus what he's doing this year, his supposed career year, is fantastic. Most teams would love to have Fausto lead their team.
BTW, the Buerhle comparison was only in reference to overall numbers as you surmised correctly. Naturally, I know my sad little theory could be wrong on a number of accounts. Say if his control improves or if his other pitches become sharper.
That said, I hope I didn't ruin your day too much as you do such a wonderful day in making ours better here on this site!
by RedHopeful on Sep 16, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, you didn't ruin my day! :-)
No, you didn't ruin my day. I'm glad you liked my argument. :-)
I'm glad to hear the reasoning behind you using the term "great junk." Not a problem - I just never heard the term "great junk" used before in describing a pitcher, and especially one with Carmona's stuff. :-)
Regarding Carmona's ceiling, I think he can become better in terms of handling LHH and staying more in control - he still can sometimes lose command for brief periods, but to his credit, he now can right himself, whereas last year, he couldn't (especially in the closer's role.) Plus, he can continue to improve his slider and changeup, to the point where he can command them consistently (he's getting better at commanding them as the season has gone along) and maybe even improve them enough where at least one of them is an above-average or plus pitch in its own right (he has been getting some strikeouts on them as well.)
That doesn't mean I expect him to have an ERA in the mid-2s (heck, Santana's lowest ERA was 2.61, whereas his other ERAs were all in the high-2s - 2.77, 2.87, and 2.99, so I certainly don't expect Carmona to reside in the mid-2s every season, or even reach that necessarily, though I suppose he could have a year where his ERA is under 3 - it's almost under 3 now - 3.07.)
I can understand your gut feeling (I suspected that's what you were referring to) - people are wondering whether Carmona can continue to put up numbers like these. I think the encouraging thing is, batters really aren't having any more success against him seeing him the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th time around, even striking out more against him now than they were earlier in the year. That's a positive sign for Carmona.
As was mentioned elsewhere, he does have to work a little more on keeping LHH from hitting that sinker the other way, but if he can improve the offspeed stuff some more and get that sinker down a little more consistently against them, I think he can improve his numbers against LHH. And, like I mentioned, it's not like they're tattooing him; most of the hits they've gotten off of him have been seeing-eye or solid singles the other way, not XBHs.
Regarding Buehrle, he's not a bad pitcher by any means; I just think with Carmona's ceiling and his stuff, I think he can bypass Buehrle even if he doesn't progress beyond where he's at now or even takes a bit of a step back, as his sinker is better than any pitch Buehrle throws, leading to a higher GO% ratio than Buehrle's ever had (his highest was 54% back in 2002, but has been no higher than 50% in the last 4 seasons.) In addition, Carmona's K rate is already comparable to Buehrle's, with the decent possibility it can become better than Buehrle's.
So, it wouldn't surprise me if he outperforms Buehrle a bit, provided Carmona stays healthy and continues to perform at a solid level at least. As you mentioned, if Carmona's control improves more and/or his offspeed stuff becomes above-average or plus pitches in their own right, then I certainly think Carmona will distance himself from Buehrle by a decent margin.
Just my 2 cents - no offense. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
vs RHP
by pedrophile on Sep 16, 2007 1:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
speaking of mcgowan
by Wheelhouse on Sep 16, 2007 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
by pedrophile on Sep 16, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McGowan's stuff is good, but Carmona's isn't
Hello Wheelhouse,
McGowan's stuff isn't THAT superior to Carmona's, as Carmona's fastball can reach the mid- to upper-90s (I even seen one gun in a game clock one of his sinking fastballs at 101, and he regularly hits anywhere from 94-98 with that sinking fastball.) And, obviously, Carmona's fastball has a great deal of movement in its own right - that's a main reason why RHH are hitting just .210/.279/.306, as it bears down on them so much, even great hitters like Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez can't dig it out and drive it, so McGowan's fastball doesn't have much more movement than Carmona's, if at all. Plus, McGowan's doesn't have the sinking action Carmona's does - McGowan's likely has more side-to-side late movement rather than downward late movement, so it's really two different types of movement, but that doesn't mean McGowan's fastball has more movement than Carmona's.
As for his slider, I really haven't seen McGowan's to compare it to Carmona's; I know Carmona still is working on his offspeed pitches, but they are coming along nicely and should be solid pitches in their own right.
Certainly, McGowan looks like a solid pitcher in his own right, but as long as it took him to get established with his command, I'll be curious to see whether he can keep that consistent command through a whole season. So far, he has, so maybe he finally has figured out how to keep consistent command, but he struggled at times with his command in the past, so, being that I haven't seen him as much as I've seen Carmona, I'd like to see a little more of him for a longer period before I'm confident he'll live up to his high potential.
Like pedrophile said, it would be helpful for both of them to improve their changeups to better combat LHH, but Carmona has handled LHH better than McGowan has:
McGowan: .269/.335/.456 in 294 ABs
Carmona: .281/.334/.386 in 417 ABs
McGowan may give up a slightly lower BA to LHH than Carmona, but when Carmona gives up hits to LHH, they're mostly singles, weak-hit or solidly-hit the other way, as evidenced by the lower SLG percentage. It seems when McGowan gives up hits to LHH, they're more for XBHs, so essentially, Carmona is ahead of McGowan when it comes to handling LHH and not letting them do major damage at this point.
No doubt, they both have high ceilings, and both should be quality pitchers for a long time to come, provided they both continue to refine their arsenals and progress as they have, especially this year.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 16, 2007 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hi IndiansFan!
couple minor points:
versus LH I agree with you that McGowan has been hit harder.
versus RH though McGowan has been better:
avg ob slg ops
210 279 306 585
187 251 228 479
both numbers are sick. But McGowan's numbers against RH are Nintendo numbers. Unreal.
As for McGowan's control and age? He did miss a couple years to TJ so the age isn't a big deal. And he's only one calendar year older. No biggie considering the 2 years off. And this severely affected his control. And the Jays didn't help with the way they handled him.
I think McGowan has much better secondary stuff and has the higher likelihood of being a dominant pitcher. Carmona is a heck of a pitcher as he is and is as good as McGowan right now. Maybe better. But McGowan has a better curve and slider I think.
If McGowan can refine his change Toronto will have an excellent rotation next year with Halladay, McGowan, AJ, Marcum.
by pedrophile on Sep 16, 2007 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot McGowan had TJ surgery!
Thanks for reminding me about McGowan having TJ surgery - I had forgotten about that. That certainly explains why it took him a while in the Minors, as well as harnessing his command. Thanks for pointing out his being 1-year older as well; I thought he was a few years older than Carmona when I wrote my post above before I looked it up. His being only 25-YO certainly gives McGowan time to live up to his high potential when he was drafted and moving through the Jays' system before going down with TJ surgery.
Like I mentioned, I haven't seen McGowan to know how good his offspeed stuff is; I know he throws hard, but as we all know, you need to throw more than hard in order to be a dominant pitcher in this league. McGowan seems to be showing that this year.
If McGowan continues to progress, yes, I can definitely see him adding to that Toronto rotation with the guys you mentioned, and to be competitive enough to reach the playoffs from the AL East, you definitely have to have solid to dominant starting pitching. :-)
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McGowan
He throws a quality curve that has good break and he can locate it well. Not quite enough depth for my liking but not bad. Very similar to Hughes curve IMO. His change needs improvement.
His fastball is electric. And he has very good control. The problem is when his mechanics abandon him then he leaves the ball up. This was mostly the first month and a half of the season.
When he is on he is dominant. When not? He needs to develop the change. Because too often he can't finish hitters when he's not on - at least against the NY and Boston teams. And being in the AL East facing them and Tampa it will be tough.
McGowan does need to improve his move to home as well.
by pedrophile on Sep 17, 2007 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the info.!
When you mentioned the TJ, I did just a little bit of searching and found a BA piece that mentioned that McGowan had some elbow trouble even when he was drafted, almost enough to make the Blue Jays cancel the contract they had signed him to. I'm referring to this BA article.
I'm curious to see whether McGowan can keep his command/mechanics throughout a whole season; he has kept them for the past few months, which is a good sign, something he hasn't done before at the ML level.
Also, what do you mean by "McGowan does need to improve his move to home as well"? Do you mean he needs to be quicker to HP or did you mean to say he needs to improve his move to 1B to keep runners close? Just curious.
Again, thanks for the info. on McGowan - greatly appreciated! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts exactly
I watched him jam up Sheffield and Magglio over and over with that pitch. He is death on righties. Lefties seem to be able to hit the ball harder off him, something which I think he'll just have to deal with, but I really think he's going to stay a top arm. The Indians got lucky with him. He wouldnt have even been in the rotation this year without Westbrook's injury.
by grozzy on Sep 16, 2007 1:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sinker
by nyybaseball99 on Sep 16, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're both good, but between the two,
Hello Joba The Great,
I'm not sure there's any real way to measure which is better, but based on the GO/FO ratios of the two pitchers and the comments I've heard regarding the two pitchers' arsenals, I'm thinking Carmona's might be a notch better.
Carmona:
406 GB/122 FB = 3.33 G/F ratio (1st in the AL, perhaps the Majors - not sure on that.)
126 K in 202.0 IP = 5.61 K/9 IP
187 H in 202.0 IP = 8.33 H/9 IP
vs RHH: .210/.279/.306
vs LHH: .281/.334/.386
BAA: .249
Usually hits the mid- to upper-90s with his sinker (from what I've heard and seen; usually it's between 94-98 MPH, depending on the radar gun being used.)
Wang:
356 GB/135 FB = 2.64 G/F ratio
94 K in 186.1 IP = 4.54 K/9 IP
186 H in 186.1 IP = 8.99 H/9 IP
vs RHH: .240/.301/.312
vs LHH: .288/.345/.416
BAA: .265
Usually hits the low- to mid-90s with his sinker (from what I've heard and seen.)
I know both Carmona and Wang have been incorporating their other pitches into their repertoire more, so it's hard to judge how much of these stats have been achieved as a direct result of their sinkers, but being that the sinker is still the best pitch and the primary pitch that both of them have used, I'd say the stats provide a decent barometer of how good their sinkers are against hitters.
Virtually, all of the stats favor Carmona, and as I mentioned above in my reply to RedsHopeful, there have been comments like "electric, unbelieveable, not human, unhittable," etc. in regards to Carmona's stuff (mostly in regards to his sinker; I believe Twins CF Torii Hunter made the "not human" comment after Carmona's start against the Twins and Santana where C Victor Martinez estimated Carmona threw over 100 sinkers in that game, so essentially, the sinker was all Carmona used to outduel Santana and defeat the Twins, leading to the Hunter comments Uncle Charlie quoted above.) I've heard Wang's sinker has been compared to a "bowling ball" and that it's hard to elevate, so it's certainly a quality pitch in its own right, but based on the stats and response from those around the league, if I had to guess, I'd say Carmona's sinker might be a tad better than Wang's. They're both very good sinkers, though.
Just my 2 cents - hopefully, this is helpful. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 16, 2007 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SP vs. RP mentality
Who else blew their "closing" audition but came back around this effective as a starter?
by dew on Sep 16, 2007 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Roy Halladay upside
1.Since June 1, Carmona k/9 has been over 6 each month.
- 65% of the balls put in play against him are groundballs, compare that to Wang's 58% and Halladay's 53%.
- He's 23 and plays on a great team.
by Team Moneyball on Sep 16, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
except for one minor thing
by pedrophile on Sep 16, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not yet, but Carmona's off-speed stuff has
Hello pedrophile,
I don't know if Carmona's offspeed stuff will ever be comparable to Halladay's offspeed stuff (what pitch is it specifically? Changeup? Curveball? Slider?), but I know Carmona has been working on both his slider and changeup and been working them into his arsenal more - that's why I think his K/9 IP rate has gone up; even though teams are seeing him for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th time, they are actually striking out against him more often now than they were earlier in the year, partly because they have to be aware of those other pitches, leaving them more vulnerable to the sinker, but also because those pitches have become quality enough to get some strikeouts on their own as well. I know Carmona has struck out some hitters with his offspeed stuff (the changeup mostly, though I think he's gotten a few on the slider as well,) so I think Carmona's offspeed stuff has room for improvement the more he uses them and incorporates them into his arsenal.
Whether they can improve enough to equal Halladay's offspeed stuff, that remains to be seen, and Carmona's offspeed stuff might not reach Halladay's level. However, being that Carmona has a better sinking fastball than Halladay and can get more GOs than Halladay can, Carmona's offspeed stuff likely doesn't have to reach Halladay's level in order for him to remain a good frontline starter for years to come - Carmona's sinker is that good where the offspeed stuff only has to improve enough to be solid pitches, not necessarily plus pitches, to take hitters off that mid- to upper-90s sinker.
Just my 2 cents - no offense.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curveball
While Carmona does have the better fastball now don't forget that Halladay's was as good in his "prime". He's lost a touch off of it. And he takes a bit off to go consistently deep into games.
So while Carmona has the edge here I doubt that velocity lasts more than half a dozen years. Look at Santana already throwing with less heat.
I do believe Carmona will improve his off-speed pitches. But I'd be shocked if his curve or change or slider is at the level of Halladay's curve. Pleasantly shocked.
IMO - Carmona should work a little on the slider, a lot on the change, and I'd love to see him develop a split. This is a pitch that could make him devastating.
by pedrophile on Sep 17, 2007 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the info. on Halladay!
Thanks for the info. on Halladay - I'm not sure I realized that Halladay had become more of a cut-fastball pitcher (I thought he wasn't throwing as hard as he once did, but that just proves the point more that you don't have to throw that hard and/or strike out that many to be a great pitcher.)
I agree that Carmona's offspeed stuff probably won't reach Halladay's curve; I could see them being above-average, which, when combined with Carmona's plus (or even plus-plus) sinker, would probably be enough for him to be one of the league's best pitchers for several years. Even if Carmona's offspeed stuff is only average or solid, it probably would still be enough to make him one of the league's top 10 pitchers for several years; as I mentioned before, Carmona outdueled Santana and beat the Twins throwing virtually nothing but that electric sinker of his - around 110 of them according to C Victor Martinez - so Carmona doesn't need great offspeed stuff to complement his sinker; just decent enough offspeed stuff where the hitters have to be aware of it enough to keep them from focusing on his sinker - if he does at least that and stays healthy, he'll probably put up several good years of pitching, close to or even comparable to what he's doing this year.
Regarding Halladay's fastball, I remember it hit Carmona's velocity, but I don't recall it having Carmona's sinking action, nor do I remember him cutting it like he does now.
Regarding the idea for Carmona throwing a split, that's a very interesting idea, and as far as I know, a split-finger fastball doesn't put as much strain on the arm as a slider does. Hmm... someone needs to send the Indians a memo. :-)
Just my 2 cents.
Again, good to talk with you! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
Halladay has always thrown the cut fastball, just threw it a little harder a few years ago. Now he'll hit 95 when he needs to.
I agree Carmona can succeed without improving the off-speed too much. The problem is there will be days teams will load up with lefties and he'll struggle. Or hits will find holes. That's when the off-speed will really help.
The split can put a decent amount of stress on the forearm and elbow if overused. But it's a great k pitch. I've found it works best for pitchers that throw hard. Harden, Contreras, Clemens, and others made it their bread and butter pitch.
The slider is a pitch that works best against righties (for a RHP). He needs a pitch that works against both. I love the split, it's a dominant pitch. And with how good his sinker is he could get away with throwing it 5-10 times a game and his K's would jump drastically. Of course this is assuming he picks it up.
by pedrophile on Sep 17, 2007 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks again for the great info.!
I wouldn't mind seeing Carmona pick up the split-finger, presuming of course he doesn't fall in love with it and overuse it, but he likely knows the sinker is still his best pitch and would probably base all his other pitches off that, so he'd probably wouldn't overuse the split-finger if he does pick it up.
I figure the Indians want him to add the changeup as I've heard the changeup doesn't add as much stress to an arm as a slider does, yet can help take hitters off that sinker. I don't think a curveball does either, but the Indians are having Carmona add a changeup (I think a lot of teams prefer their young pitchers adding a changeup nowadays, rather than a slider or even a curveball - maybe it's easier to develop a changeup than a curveball? - not sure.)
Still, I hope they encourage Carmona to add a split-finger to his repertoire in the near future - I think it could help him become more dominant than he is now, as you mentioned. Perhaps add that pitch to his repertoire and not use the slider quite as much (though he doesn't use it much anyway) to insure as much as possible he doesn't injure his arm.
Again, thanks for the great info. - greatly appreciated! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no problem
Carmona -
Curveball - It's been my feeling that players typically don't gain a killer curve or even very good curve later in the career. That is why I think Carmona will only have an adequate one.
Slider - I'm not sure how much movement his has now. But other than location I'd have to say it's maxed out. The slider is similar in progression like the curve except one thing. A big gain in velocity can make big strides in the slider quality. I don't foresee Carmona adding velocity. So other than control wysiwyg.
Split - This pitch has been learned later in careers and become a devastating pitch. JJ Putz says hi. There is an NLer that came from the AL that reinvented his career with this (can't remember the name). And many others picked it up to become a dominant weapon for them.
Change - Very few pitchers that don't have a very good change early pick it up to become a plus pitch. I guess it's a combo of trying to get a repeatable motion that looks the same as the fastball AND to get good break on the pitch. Most work very hard on the first but don't have the break. Carmona's change will probably be quite effective as long as his velocity is in the mid to high 90's. If that decreases then his change will become a poor pitch. Until of course he improves it.
As far as comparing them?
Carmona can survive more easily on the fastball because he keeps it down better and his movement is also typically down.
McGowan has shown a plus curve (similar to Hughes IMO) and a decent change. These off-speed pitches are ahead of what Carmona has. But more importantly to me (since they are young) I see the chance for McGowan to have plus off-speed while I don't see this for Carmona.
It's funny/strange that many compare Carmona to Halladay when Toronto has the best comp for Halladay on their team in McGowan.
by pedrophile on Sep 17, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks again for the info. - greatly appreciated!
Regarding the NLer who started in the AL, but added the split, I'm just guessing, but maybe Jason Isringhausen? (Not sure if he throws a split or not, and he did start in the NL, but did pitch also for Oakland.) Or perhaps Joel Piniero? Not sure - just guesses on my part.
Again, thanks for the info. - greatly appreciated. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doug Davis!
by pedrophile on Sep 17, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting - I did not know that - thanks for the
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carmona
Both weren't highly touted minor leaguers, but their sinkers are now devastating major league hitters.
I think Carmona throws a bit harder, but I believe it is a fair comparison.
by GregJP on Sep 16, 2007 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I saw this thread last night and wanted to write..
But I missed my chance because well...I was high.
I think Carmona could be a better version of Wang. His stuff has more movement than just about anyone in the game, and he throws it harder than every sinkerballer but Wang. The guy is just...nasty. You have to love that his control is pretty damn good for a 23 year old with a mid-90's sinker.
by SenorGato88 on Sep 17, 2007 1:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carmon's upside
Thanks everyone for the great reading!
by sdtribefan on Sep 17, 2007 5:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
In the current K/9 age, I think it's getting easier to dismiss guys like Carmona (or Wang or Lowe) as flukes because they don't strike out enough guys. But what these guys all show me is that a killer pitch is still a killer pitch. And with a guy like Carmona, as he's shown the last 2 months or so, his ability to increase his K rates by mixing in his other pitches gives him the chance to eclipse what some of the other heavy sinkers guys have done.
Kudos to the board on the poll results, BTW...taking Carmona over Bonderman? I was surprised to see those results from what I thought was a pretty K-centric board...
by Yakker on Sep 17, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Bonderman
by bleedjaxblue on Sep 17, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
by Yakker on Sep 17, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
K-centric board
by jpahk on Sep 17, 2007 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
by Yakker on Sep 17, 2007 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts and Thanks!
I too would like to thank everyone for an interesting thread as well - great discussion! :-)
jpahk - interesting point about the GOs vs KOs; I think GOs can be nicer in the sense that it allows the pitcher to go deeper in the game because he can get hitters out on 1 pitch and/or even can get 2 outs with one pitch via a DP, without having to throw at least 3 pitches to get the KO, so in that sense, I think GOs can be better than KOs.
Granted, it's always nice to have good enough stuff to KO a tough hitter when you need to, especially if you have a runner at 3B and less than 2 outs. That's why I think Carmona is an intriguing pitcher - his main method is the GO, but his stuff is good enough and he's young enough to improve that stuff (especially the offspeed) a little more to be able to strike out a decent number of hitters as well, making him effective enough in both areas. Being able to get hitters out by either method might be the best type of pitcher overall (not that there is anything wrong with being a high K pitcher and having low GO rates - they're pretty good in their own right - just that they may often have high pitch counts if teams can foul off several of their pitches in some ABs during their starts. It can be helpful and enable the pitcher to stay in the game longer if he can get the batter to hit it weakly to somebody to finally end the AB without having to strike him out to end the AB.)
Again, thanks for the great discussion - greatly appreciated! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Sep 17, 2007 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
