ROY - AL NL

by roaddog on Sep 1, 2007 3:05 AM EDT

A favorite topic for discussion.

Looks to be Braun in the NL though a few people turned in some good performances.

Hamilton for the story and a nice year, though the injury cost him too many games. Tulowitzki? Maybe, that's a good year at a tough position which he handled very well defensively according to the scouting reports I read (not the end all, but something). Braun's errors may hurt him some. Chris B Young, just not enough average I think. Pence? I think just not enough, but is heating up. Lincecum? Not enough counting I think for the voters. Left some out?

AL? Probably Daisuke. Not a runaway, but that's a good record and ERA for that League and Division for a rookie. May get snubbed a little on the older than normal angle.

Delmon put up a nice year, just not enough I think unless he turns on the afterburners in the last month (which could happen). I think Pedroia should get a nod or two, that's a pretty good season for a regular let alone a rookie. Gordon, not enough to overcome the average and high expectations. Okajima? Not gonna be a middle reliever no matter how good. Wow, three "rookie" Sox (didn't realize). Kinda stumped on this one.

Fun to project this stuff at this time. Still enough time for someone to ride a hot streak to the trophy and upset it all. Ok to say "This is who I think will win, and this is who I think should win." Sometimes its fun to question the efficacy of the voting system. (and always proper form in a free society).

Poll

Who are your picks ?

Braun,Dice-K

65 votes

Braun, someone else AL

38 votes

Someone else NL, Daisuke Matsuzaka

4 votes

Someone else NL, Someone else AL

2 votes

Fred

4 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

My picks:

Who I think will win:
Braun and Dice-K
It's all about the hype machine. Dice-K has a huge ROY lead even before the season started. Would take a monster year by someone to overcome that, or for him to go Igawa on us. Braun has the power and is playing on a contender that lead their division much of the season. Chicks and ESPN dig the long ball.

Who I think should win:
Tulo and Pedroia
Both have been superb defensively and really help their teams out of the 2-hole. I think having Matsui bat lead-off in front of Tulo is helping him a lot, plus I like the idea of letting young stud hitters make their bones by hitting second to help them see better pitchers and adjust to the majors.

"Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young and 11 Tim Lincecums." -uga007

by Boxkutter on Sep 1, 2007 7:05 AM EDT reply actions

Braun and Pedroia

Tulowitzki is hitting really well for a plus-plus defensive SS. But Braun has hit at an MVP level, enough to make up for his fewer ABs, positional differences, and terrible defense. There's also the Coors Effect to take into consideration. Tulowitzki is really close, though, and there's nothing wrong wih a strong second. But aside from who deserves it, Braun will get it, because he's the bigger story. Pence would've been in the mix if he hadn't gotten hurt, and even despite that is almost in the mix.

In the AL, Daisuke probably deserves it just a bit more than Pedroia, but he may not have the wins at the end of the year, plus there will be some who won't vote for Japanese "rookies". Voters love to vote for players who have to "give it all every day", as opposed to pitchers. And a .321/.392/.444 year out of a 2B with good defense is quite excellent.

Guthrie and Bannister have cases, but they don't have the wins, and Bannister hasn't pitched a full year.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 1, 2007 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

Bannister

...is going for his 12th win today. If he gets it, it will put him only one win behind Dice-K...despite playing on a team with 20 fewer wins overall, and despite not pitching in the rotation full time until mid-May.

The only reason he wouldn't win over Dice-K is because of the hype machine. The only reason he maybe SHOULDN'T win over Dice-K is because he hasn't done that much to justify his incredible ERA...he has a very low walk rate, but a very low K-Rate, as well, and is a fly ball pitcher. He probably has been lucky this year. On the other hand, the point of K/BB ratios and GB/FB ratios is to predict what a pitcher will do, rather than evaluate what he's done...Brian has an ERA+ of 145, Dice-K only has a 117. Guthrie is at 123 thanks to a late swoon.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 1, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Er

Bannister is pitching tomorrow against Boof Bonser. My bad.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 1, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Some good points.

ROY should definitely be about what a guy's done, not what he'll do. I think we all agree that Matsuzaka will be a better pitcher going forward, but Bannister could have a good career, and he is certainly beating Dice-K by a good bit of ERA this year.

However, innings DO matter, and Dice-K has him beat by enough there for him to have been overall better than Bannister this year, if not by much. A statistic like VORP shows this. Wins is a poorer measure of this, but Dice-K does have two more wins than him, and that a) is indicative that he's been more valuable than Bannister (though a stat like VORP shows this better), and b) is what the voters will look at.

Put another way, it's impressive that Bannister has won as many games as he has given the time that he missed, but the time that he missed means that he hasn't been as valuable to his team as Dice-K has to his. Further, I believe that Bannister has actually received more run support than Dice-K, though I'm not sure where to find that statistic, so I'm just guessing based on the numbers.

A good measurement of this is BP's Expected Wins, which quite simply takes the IP and RA and calculates how many wins a pitcher usually has with those two numbers. Dice-K has 11.9 EW (ewwwww), while Bannister has 9.1. Guthrie actually has Bannister beat at 9.7. Note that this is not taking into account park factors or strength of opponents. But it is negating run support and pen support.

Regardless, Pedroia will likely win.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 1, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Also good points

EW and VORP are good statistics, and certainly they're important to the statistically minded (myself included). I doubt they'll play into the actual voting much, though.

Anyway, just to add a little more to the discussion, here's Bannister's line from Sunday:

Bannister (W, 12-7)
8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0 HR, 3.16 ERA

by ajohnst1 on Sep 2, 2007 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

pedroia

Voters love to vote for players who have to "give it all every day", as opposed to pitchers. And a .321/.392/.444 year out of a 2B with good defense is quite excellent.

just wanted to point out that pedroia hasn't been playing every day. he's played 114 of 135 team games despite not going on the DL. they've basically been giving him about a day off per week against tougher matchups. so he's not quite as good as his rate stats would indicate (notice that his counting stats are rather weak: 6 HR, 42 RBI, 64 RS, 133 hits, 43 walks... his only good stat is 31 doubles, which is good but not great).

by jpahk on Sep 1, 2007 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Not resting, really...

More a case of them not trusting him in the early going. He got an average of 60 ABs a month the first two months due to his poor April. Since then he's gotten an average of 98 ABs a month for three months.

Anyway, regardless of how he's gotten less than a full year's playing time, you've got a good point. But I believe the voters are going to look at his rate stats, especially his BA, and their vote will be colored by their preference for... well, okay, not everyday players, but position players, anyway.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 2, 2007 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

You left one guy off...

Guthrie has had an amazing year. He may not win the AL ROY but he atleast deserves to be mentioned. I know he has fallen off as of late, due to a tired arm or the AL catching up to him but you can't have a vote without having him in it.

NL= Braun, Pence if not for the injury

AL=Dice-K

The Reds are finally making a move!

by Rupe34 on Sep 1, 2007 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

I think that

Braun would have most likely won regardless of Pence's injury. I know you can't project his numbers over the injury period.

by JD Sussman on Sep 1, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

MINE?

AL=Bannister
NL=Braun

Banny won't get it, but he does deserve it.

by doublestix on Sep 1, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions

NL

There sure is a strong crop in the NL this year.

I'd imagine the voting will shake out something like

Braun
Hamilton
Tulowitzki
Pence
Lincecum

Tulo's been better, but I think Hamilton will get the votes.

by limozeen on Sep 1, 2007 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

why all the Love for Tulo?

HOME: .339 / .981 AWAY: .247 / .679

Until he hits at least OK on the road he's just a product of Coors IMO.

And why do people care so much about Braun's D? If he keeps this up:
AVG .329 | HR 25 | RBI 68 | OBP .375 | SLG .631

he'll be in the discussion for MVP.

If Josh plays the rest of the season I would vote him ahead of Tulo. His numbers are certainly better with this line:
AVG .278 | HR 18 | RBI 43 | OBP .362 | SLG .541

But he's missed so much time that I couldn't vote him ahead unless he plays the remainder of the season.

I'd take Pedroia as the AL ROY or possibly Okajima. Guthrie faded too much and I'm willing to bet Bannister gets rocked in the last month.

by pedrophile on Sep 1, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

tulo

why does it matter what his splits are? the ROY award is about what kind of year he's had. he's had a very good year with the bat--does it matter if he has a bigger-than-usual H/R split for a rockie?
his defense has been awesome. without adam everett this year, i'd say tulo should get the gold glove.
he's been super-clutch. crazily, amazingly clutch. he's had a large number of go-ahead or tying hits/HRs in the 9th or extras. that may not have any predictive value, but it does mean he's had a great year.

by jpahk on Sep 1, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

by the way

braun is still the ROY, hands down. he's been unbelievable. but i think tulo deserves the props he is getting. he's certainly outperformed my expectations for him.

by jpahk on Sep 1, 2007 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions

why do I think the splits matter?

because Coors numbers are always taken with a grain of salt.

by pedrophile on Sep 2, 2007 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Additionally

Tulowitzki's park-adjusted OPS+ is just 107. Not bad for a rookie shortstop who plays great D, and maybe good enough to win in some years, but compare that to Braun's 153 OPS+, or even Pence's 131. Until Tulowitzki starts hitting on the road, he's far behind the other two candidates, even with his great defense.

by ajohnst1 on Sep 2, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Hamilton's OPS+

Is 122...so he's far and away a better hitter than Tulo, as well...

by ajohnst1 on Sep 2, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

I do think Braun will have his numbers come down quite a bit. But it will still be far and away the best numbers of the group.

Tulo is having a decent year with great D. Those road numbers are terrible though.

by pedrophile on Sep 3, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Banny

8ip, 6h, 1r, 0bb, 1k

by doublestix on Sep 2, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't recall predicting his next start

just the overall finish. And shutting down the potent Twins lineup right now isn't a difficult thing to do.

Next game he faces the Yankees. I'll give you a prediction for that game - he gets torched. Banny is much more effective against righties and I believe NY has quite a few lefties. Oh, and they are good.

Plus Banny is probably starting to tire now. He's at the 150 IP mark and didn't pitch much last year.

One last thought - pitchers are rarely selected for ROY. Not something I agree with but it's what happens.

by pedrophile on Sep 3, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Why...

Would any Japanese player get the AL or NL ROY...The writers never vote for Japanese players who have had experience in the Japanese leagues, like Hideki Matsui. My picks would be:

AL: Brian Bannister
NL: Ryan Braun

by adschofield on Sep 1, 2007 5:21 PM EDT reply actions

well

Matsui came 2nd in a close call. I preferred him but there was a case.

Soriano came 3rd and he didn't have that great of a season with poor D.

by pedrophile on Sep 1, 2007 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

further

Ichiro won the ROY.

Iguchi was 4th in voting.

So by what precedent are you saying they won't vote for players that played in the Japanese leagues?

by pedrophile on Sep 1, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Nomo

Hideo Nomo won it in 1995.

by FlipYrWhig on Sep 1, 2007 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Some

Voters won't do it. Not all, however.

by doublestix on Sep 1, 2007 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Kaz Sasaki

also won,

and
Matsui finished in second the year Berroa won.

by kofanis0880 on Sep 1, 2007 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Chris Young

I'm really surprised at how much play Chris Young is getting on ESPN as a potential ROY winner. I have to say I'm happy with how he's played this year as someone who has always believed he was a top, top prospect, but Braun, Hamilton, Tulo, Pence, and Lincecum have all been more valuable.

by limozeen on Sep 2, 2007 3:32 AM EDT reply actions