True or False? Yovani Gallardo

by John Sickels on Aug 7, 2007 11:02 AM EDT in News Comment 67 comments

True or False:
Yovani Gallardo will either win or come close to winning a Cy Young Award within the next five years.

Discuss the future of this outstanding young pitcher.

0 recs | Comment 67 comments

Comments

True

He'll be the best pitcher on one of the dominant teams in the NL. The best pitcher on the best team often gets CY votes.

He'll be perennially strong in wins due to his team, while also being a solid K guy (as we have already seen)

His solid BB/9 ratio should keep his WHIP low, and his solid HR/9 ratio should keep his ERA in line.

So he seems to be a pretty confident bet to put up averages around 17+ wins 200+ ks with mid 3 ERAs over the next five years.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Milwaukee? Dominate?

Milwaukee? One of the most dominant teams?
Milwaukee? "strong in wins due to his team"???

Milwaukee??? Really? You really want to go with that prediction? It could happen but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

Do you consider Melvin's Texas teams in the late 90's as dominate? You know, the Texas teams which were powered by players the previous GM, Tom Grieve, brought in?

Personally, at best I see Milwaukee mirroring what Texas did in the late 90's. Three or so years of being a good team but definately not a "dominate" team by any sense.

by northtexan95 on Aug 7, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Curtis Pride proves again that he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about.

by fartballs on Aug 7, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm....

actually, sounds like a frustrated Rangers fan more than anything...

by mjwelch11 on Aug 7, 2007 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is making the point that the Brewers have a ton of young talent breaking in the past couple years (Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Braun, Hardy, Gallardo, etc.) with some good younger veterans on the team. I could see this team in the next couple years start to be the easy favorite in the central. I doubt they'll dominate though.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Aug 7, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

improvement

They were 12 games under .500 last year (75 wins). They are on pace to be 10 games over .500 this year (86 wins).

That's largely the improvement from Fielder, addition of Braun, the unexpected great year from Cordero, and a small helping of Gallardo.

They also have gotten putrid years from Hall and Weeks.

They had an 11 win swing this year alone. Is another 10+ win swing unlikely over the next few years?

That makes them a team that wins in the high 90s. That's dominant.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, Milwaukee

The difference between Texas and Milwaukee is that Texas never had pitching.

Milwaukee currently has solid pitching, and while many of them are only under contract for another year or two, they can spend on pitching in the short term because their offense is so inexpensive right now.

They also have two of the best young hitters in the game, not to mention Weeks, Hall, and Hart - all of whom are under contract for the new few years relatively inexpensively.

The central is also weak, and will continue to be so.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well..

Maybe the Brewers won't DOMINATE, but they'll certainly have one of the best offenses around. I hope pitchers have fun pitching to a lineup of Hart-Weeks-Braun-Fielder-Hardy, because I can't imagine that will be too enjoyable. An excellent offense will cause Yo to win quite a few games.

by rmande09 on Aug 7, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

semantics

what are you defining as "dominant" 120 wins? OK fine, they won't dominate.

But I see the Brewers as a perennial 95+ win team for the next 3-5 years.

That, to me is dominant.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weeks

Yep Weeks has been scaring the hell out of a lot of pitchers lately.

by JFP on Aug 7, 2007 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

true

--Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Aug 7, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

He's an outstanding young pitcher, but one that likely will take a little while before becoming dominant IMO.

Most pitchers that come up take 5 years before becoming Cy Young candidates - especially ones that get rushed through the minors like Gallardo did. The odds are very much stacked against him doing so, and past examples like Brett Myers, Josh Beckett, etc show us success does not come easily or quickly even for the elite pitching prospects. And that does not even factor in the injury concerns (aka the Kerry Wood and Mark Prior clause).

by guru4u on Aug 7, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

other pitchers don't take long

obviously Gooden, but also guys like Zito, and Lincecum since he'll win 3 by next year

by mroak89 on Aug 7, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should have explained further....

But my problem with comparing Gallardo to a Gooden, Liriano, etc is that he does not have their stuff. He does not even have Lincecum's pure stuff. He has to rely on above average stuff, which means he would have to display pinpoint control in order to really be good enough to be considered for a Cy Young. Those types of pitchers usually take a while before really becoming dominant because they continuously improve their command.

by guru4u on Aug 7, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

like 53 innings?

47Ks, 17bb
2.55 ERa
1.04 whip

seems like he's having pretty good success even without having pinpoint control so far.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

You're right, I'm wrong. After 53 innings, we can already conclude he's going to the Hall of Fame. After all, there have been zero instances in the past of highly touted prospects flying to the majors, getting off to a great start, then hitting a few bumps in the road after major league hitters have seen them a few times.

by guru4u on Aug 7, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

that's exactly what I said. It's even in my sig. "Yovani Gallardo is a lock for the hall of fame".

excellent reading comprehension. And a winning personality too.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same to you

by guru4u on Aug 7, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, I understand

Two different people in the same sub thread have misread/misinterpreted what you wrote. So it's obviously everyone else's fault that you can't communicate effectively.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 7, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

failures

Guys like Zach Duke and Paul Maholm had success their rookie years, but that never translated. is Yovani gonna end, no. But early success doesnt mean a lot.

by lakerfan030 on Aug 7, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

why do you think Gallardo doesn't have the stuff of a Lincecum et al? That he has just above average stuff? All the stuff I've read suggests that his stuff is (dare I say it?) Lincecumian, and his minor league numbers seem to suggest that too...

by mroak89 on Aug 7, 2007 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Gallardo doesn't have the velocity that "wows" people like (for a comparable example) Lincecum does. While Gallardo has perhaps a more advanced command and control of his pitches, his pitches don't match up with a guy like Lincecum who will fire it in there in the upper 90s.

It isn't necessarily a discredit to Gallardo because there are plenty of pitchers who have succeeded with fastballs with good movement that sit in the low 90s. But a 92 MPH fastball with good movement and good command isn't incredible. Further, his other pitches are going to help tremendously improve his overall level of performance with the same not great, but certainly above average quality.

The concern with this skill-set, however, is that I think he's likely be a pitcher who uses three pitches throughout the game and will rely on all three to be effective in order for him to be outstanding. It's sort of like the "whole is greater than the sum".

by kschellenger on Aug 7, 2007 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

YG vs TL

In the midst of Lincecum's June swoon, he started at Milwaukee the day after Gallardo beat the Giants. There's really no question: Gallardo has very nice stuff, nice enough he does not need 'pinpoint control.' However, his stuff just isn't as electric as Lincecum's, even on that off-day in an off-month.

For the record, I like Gallardo's chances at a Cy, precisely because his lineup is going to pick him up a lot the next few years, and that'll mean wins. Cy voters love them some wins.

by wcw on Aug 8, 2007 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HuskerBob

Is not going to like that head tilt...

by drwmsu1 on Aug 7, 2007 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yuck

I'd bet on him getting hurt before I'd bet on him winning a Cy Young.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Aug 8, 2007 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The norm.

I'd bet on nearly any pitcher getting hurt before I'd bet on that pitcher winning a Cy Young.

by baumann on Aug 13, 2007 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fact

He's the most impressive rookie pitcher I've seen this year.

by doublestix on Aug 7, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Out of how many?

by siddfynch on Aug 10, 2007 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pride is right...in general

All of the points Pride checks off strike me as about right. Gallardo should be a good pitcher on a good team for the next few years. That vaults him into CY contention. Whether he'll win one depends on 3 obvious factors: 1) how well he pitches, 2) how much offensive support he gets and the biggest factor 3) how healthy he remains.

As to how dominant the Brewers will be I wouldn't say that the lineup of Hart-Weeks-Braun-Fielder-Hardy is particularly good right now. Braun and Fielder are obviously very good but Weeks is a zero as we speak and Hart and Hardy are OK. If Hardy was hitting like he was earlier in the year then they would have 3 big plus hitters there, but he's not. As to there potential in the next 5 years, that lineup is about as good as anyone's, keeping in mind we are talking about potential. The reality could be anything.

However, when you start looking at the rest of the central it's easy to see how Milwaukee could (I stress could) reel off 3-5 division titles. Pittsburgh and Cincinnatti are in organizational chaos, Houston and St. Louis are in obvious decline. The Cubbies have a competitive team now but they could easily lose Zambrano this winter. That leaves them with Lee, Ramirez, Soriano and a bunch of spare parts, which still leaves them in better shape than some of the above. If you are predicting division winners for the next 5 years, it's hard not to see the Brewers winning at least a couple.

by RanBricker on Aug 7, 2007 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

He'll regress next year just like Jered Weaver has this year. The numbers Gallardo has put up this year don't seem sustainable once he's been properly scouted.

That said I think he's got a good chance of being an ace type pitcher within the next 5 years. Seeing that he's on a team with offensive support for the win totals the voters like, I'd say true as long as he doesn't get hurt.

by niallmack on Aug 7, 2007 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

weaver

don't you feel like the weaver's problems have more to do with the physical problems he was having at the start of the year than with him being "properly scouted"? that seems like the most obvious explanation to me.

it's been almost two years since gallardo spent more than a couple starts not dominating; i know major league hitters are good but it's hard for me to believe that solving him is as easy as a call from a scout - "hey boss, i figured it out. gallardo's throwing pinpoint heat, changing speeds and mixing in a nasty curve. tell the guys to stop trying to bunt everything and hit the ball as hard as they can as it crosses the plate."

by wily mo on Aug 7, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Young pitchers

If you took this year's stats over 35 starts he would have a CY Young type line of

200IP 16 wins 2.55 ERA 200K's 160 hits and 8HR

Hey wily mo I figured it out, he's pitched 53 innings there is no way that he will regress.

by niallmack on Aug 7, 2007 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

sure, any young pitcher might regress. i'm not saying i'm 100% sure he'll keep putting up these numbers in a straight line. but i do think he really is this good, and if his numbers falter i think it'll be because something about his pitching changed - he suffered a major or minor injury, or his mechanics get out of whack, or he's tipping or something. what i got from your post - and correct me if it was wrong - was more the idea that since gallardo's fastball doesn't sit at 95 or higher, the league will figure him out the second time through. you see that idea a lot and i don't really agree with it, certainly not in all cases, and specifically not in this one.

people may make some adjustments to him, sure, but i think gallardo in particular is the kind of pitcher who will be pretty good at counter-adjusting. from all you hear, he knows what he's doing.

obviously no pitcher - young or old - is perfectly consistent, but i think as long as he remains the pitcher he is now stuff-wise he'll put up ace-caliber numbers.

by wily mo on Aug 7, 2007 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant that

It's pretty hard to put up numbers like that over the course of a full season for anybody, and especially for a pitcher with so little experience. I even said he's good and that I think he'll be in the Cy Young running. I doubt he'll put up Santana numbers next year for the whole year, he might...

More specifically I don't think he's so good that his H/9 and especially HR/9 will stay at this rate so his ERA will probably go up. Would it be a success if he pitched 180 innings with a 3.5 to 4 ERA? I would think that is a very successful second season, but wouldn't expect 2.55 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.

by niallmack on Aug 7, 2007 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then Again

He could fall into some predictable patterns. Or he could tip his pitches somehow.

Or do you think that advance scouting is completely useless? You seem to imply that with your dismissive quotes. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Aug 7, 2007 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

"hey boss, i figured it out. gallardo's throwing pinpoint heat, changing speeds and mixing in a nasty curve. tell the guys to stop trying to bunt everything and hit the ball as hard as they can as it crosses the plate."

i had a good laugh ove this, priceless

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 7, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

You clearly can't count him as a Cy contender with Lincecum and Bailey around. There is just no way those two don't walk away with it in alternating years for the next 10 seasons.

by JFP on Aug 7, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

You clearly can't count him as a Cy contender with Lincecum and Bailey around. There is just no way those two don't walk away with it in alternating years for the next 10 seasons.

by JFP on Aug 7, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No Cy's

for Cole Hamels?

by drwmsu1 on Aug 7, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

He will always be a distant fourth behind Gallardo and the two mentioned previously.

by JFP on Aug 7, 2007 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya

Those Peavy and Webb guys suck!

by niallmack on Aug 7, 2007 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you forget

Kobe Clemens will soon become a 120 MPH pitcher. Just you wait. His dad has a "secret" that he'll let his son in on soon.

by mroak89 on Aug 7, 2007 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AL Cy's

Any chance anyone but Felix or Hughes win over the next ten years?

by drwmsu1 on Aug 7, 2007 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

forgot to do it in "reply", dammit!

n/m

by drwmsu1 on Aug 7, 2007 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean

Like Santana, Haren or Liriano?

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Aug 8, 2007 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he might not...

Win a Cy Young, but he could win a Tim Lincecum in 15 years...

by doublestix on Aug 7, 2007 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice

I like. ..funny

"Hell, I could say I am pregnant with Carl Crawford's baby" Elijah Duke's mom

by casejud on Aug 8, 2007 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gallardo

Poor man's Mike Harkey! Just kidding (obviously). In all seriousness, he looks solid to me, but I thought Milt Hill was going to be good, so what do I know?

Whatever happened to Clear Pepsi?

by Buddy on Aug 7, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

false

lincecum will beat him out every time.

"KaoticKlown" on Elijah Dukes : Finally, MLB has the answer to Shawn Kemp it has been searching for since the mid-90s.

by realityconquest on Aug 7, 2007 8:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Toatally off topic

but, I LOVE that picture of Yovanni. His delivery and the way he attacks hitters reminds me of his teammate, Ben Sheets. If he is THAT good and can stay healthy, which is something none of us can predict that well, it looks like he will be outsatnding for the Brew Crew for years. Timmy is sooo great though...wow.

"Hell, I could say I am pregnant with Carl Crawford's baby" Elijah Duke's mom

by casejud on Aug 8, 2007 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

speaking of Sheets

..he would seem another condidate, for the same reason (good arm, good team), assuming his April-May K-rate swoon was just an aberration.

by wcw on Aug 8, 2007 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure does

"His delivery and the way he attacks hitters reminds me of his teammate, Ben Sheets."

And Ben has had shoulder problems.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Aug 8, 2007 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not quite

no, Sheets doesn't have shoulder problems. He's had just about every other problem (vertigo, inner ear infection, lower back spasms, sprained finger ligament, torn back muscle, blisters), but he hasn't had any arm issues since a "dead arm" back in 2003.

rotowire.com fantasy sports

by herb on Aug 8, 2007 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was pretty sure but found this anyway.....

"Sheets started the 2006 season on the DL but quickly came off it only to pitch 3 starts before going on the DL again with shoulder tendonitis."

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Aug 8, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And from Ben himself.....

"As a rookie, I got a wake-up call when I developed tendinitis in my right arm and shoulder. "

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Aug 8, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

the 2006 stuff was all related to recovery from the back muscle thing, i thought.

by wily mo on Aug 8, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

The tendinitis was the result from back muscle tear. Nothing really serious but he tends to have a lot of ailments.

by yoda1 on Aug 8, 2007 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

check the source on it...

I guess you're just kidding around then. Sheets was on the DL for a sore shoulder in 2001, his rookie season, but has never once been on the DL for a shoulder problem since then. In 2006 he was recovering from a torn muscle from the previous season. I'm not sure why you think he's got shoulder problems, it's really the only thing he never has had.

Like I said, I have gout and shingles as his next injuries, but shoulder problems haven't been his downfall.

rotowire.com fantasy sports

by herb on Aug 9, 2007 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

Well, the quote about staying on the DL in 2006 with shoulder tendinitis is from Wikipedia. Maybe they have it wrong.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Aug 9, 2007 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

We call Sheets's delivery "Labrum defying" around here :) Gallardo's has the same look to it. I love the way they throw but, i do worry about their health.

"Hell, I could say I am pregnant with Carl Crawford's baby" Elijah Duke's mom

by casejud on Aug 8, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs