The 2008 Prospect List

by rwperu34 on Aug 4, 2007 3:08 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

With the promotion of Upton and Jones, they will most likely not be eligible for the 2008 list. I think we may have been spoiled over the last couple of years by the depth of the prospect lists. It seems like 2008 will be somewhat of a down year. The 1-2 punch of Longoria-Bruce is pretty good and there's a good 1-2 pitching punch of Buchholtz-Chamberlain, but it seems like the depth will be lacking. The #3 position prospect looks to be Cameron Maybin. While I'm one of his biggest supporters, I readily admit he's not the same caliber of recent top 5 prospects.

Here is what the 2008 list would look like if the season ended today. I've taken our midseason top 50 and scratched players that likely won't be eligible. No 2007 draftees are included. The only two from the 2007 draft that jump right out as immidiate top 10 candidates are Price and Wieters, and even they are fringe top 10 types. Other than that, you're looking at the high ceiling high school types that are a long ways off.

Evan Longoria, 3b
Jay Bruce, of
Clay Buchholz, rhp
Clayton Kershaw, lhp
Cameron Maybin, of
Fernando Martinez, of
Colby Rasmus, of
Brandon Wood, 3b
Adam Miller, rhp
Reid Brignac, ss
Joey Votto, 1b
Daric Barton, 1b
Luke Hochevar, rhp
Joba Chamberlain, rhp
Andrew McCutchen, of
Jose Tabata, of
Eric Hurley, rhp
Wade Davis, rhp
Travis Snider, of
Jake McGee, lhp

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

joba

should be on top

by hallofamer2000 on Aug 4, 2007 3:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

interesting

it's going to be fun making the offseason list!

by doublestix on Aug 4, 2007 3:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Antonelli anyone?

Antonelli gets no love? Kis kind of bat could be huge at 2B. And do to the fact that his in an organization with one of the worst hitting MIF in recent memory. He'll most likely be up by next september.

by spectstud06 on Aug 4, 2007 4:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

i think hes being very underrated also

"KaoticKlown" on Elijah Dukes : Finally, MLB has the answer to Shawn Kemp it has been searching for since the mid-90s.

by realityconquest on Aug 5, 2007 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

Tabata should fall out of top 20, he's still a very nice prospect, but unless he show some power he's not going to be a super star.

Joba should rank higher than Buchhloz and Kreshaw, Kreshaw is very exciting, but you can't rank anynoe not even in AA that high.

I was pretty sure I heard that Hochevar have been dissapointing this year so far, if that's the case he's not even ahead of Ian Kennedy anymore. let alone top 10.

There are several other guys that needs to go down big time, there was a BP article not too long back (free) that talked about this actually.

by RollingWave on Aug 4, 2007 5:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Clay still gets the edge

They should be #1 and #2 though if they're eligible and Upton isn't. Kershaw #3, Longoria #4, Rasmus #5.

Drop Tabata? Perhaps objectively. But compare his year relatively to say, F-Mart. Is it worse to have a wrist injury, age, and the FSL hurting your power, or to miss half the year with injuries and look completely lost when you do play? That's not his fault, but he had no business being in AA and Omar better pray that he doesn't turn into Eric Duncan. Where Tabata stands in respect to the other hitting prospects, I honestly don't know, it's not worth splitting hairs about.

McCutchen and Hochevar were voted wayyyy too high on the community top 50 and shouldn't be allowed to coast on their reputations any longer. Wood is another guy who should fall somewhat, and maybe Miller if the injuries are becoming that much of a red flag.

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Aug 4, 2007 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way is Bruce #2

he is 2 years younger than Longoria. He has hit .322 combined between AA and AAA (152 ABs) with an OBP of .391 and a SLG of .645. That is an OPS of 1.036 for a 20 year old in AA and AAA. Longoria does seem to have better plate disipline however.

Also, no way should Hochevar or Miller and their 5+ ERAs be in front of Chamberlain.

by nyy601 on Aug 4, 2007 5:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

You stole my post! Seriously though, Bruce is CLEARLY the man here but, HE may also not be elligible also. he could be up any day. I like Longoria though but, Bruce is a potential perrenial All-Star.

"Hell, I could say I am pregnant with Carl Crawford's baby" Elijah Duke's mom

by casejud on Aug 4, 2007 5:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Bruce

will not come up for the Reds this year, unless its a September call up, and even then he won't play much. The GM and Manager are both fighting to keep their jobs and they seem very content in playing old guys over younger talented guys.

Griffey and Dunn are here through the end of the season. Josh Hamilton should be back in a week. The Reds will call up Chris Dickerson if they need another outfielder until Hamilton is ready.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Aug 4, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

id have

andy laroche over a couple over some of those pitchers.

by npurcell on Aug 4, 2007 5:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Much Has Happened Since Midseason . . ..

Adam Miller, for instance, was on the DL from May 12 and June 25 and since his return has allowed 21 ER in 14 IP (26 H, 6 BB, 18 K). Something seems seriously wrong there, and until he shows that he's OK he's not going to make anyone's top 50, let alone 20.

Buchholz, Chamberlain, and Kershaw wil probably be pitchers 1-3; McGee, Davis, and Hurley belong in the top 10 pitchers along with Bowden, Inman, and Adenhart (anyone who pretends to be able to rank these 6 is just guessing).

by Eric Van on Aug 4, 2007 6:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers

Inman and Bowden don't belong in the conversation. Adenhart, Guerra, Gio, Carrasco, Colton, etc...

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Aug 4, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not According to the Experts

Of the guys who will still be prospects, here's the pre-season consensus of BA, Sickels, BP, and Baseball HQ:

1 Adam Miller
2 Kersahw
3 Hochevar
4 Elbert
5 Morales
6 Adenhart
7 Niemann
8 Hurley
9 Lofgren
10 Buchholz
11 McGee
12 Humber
13 Veal
14 Carrasco
15 Erbe
16 Patton
17 Lincoln
18 Bowden
19 Davis
20 Inman
21 Volstad
22 Gonzalez
23 West
24 Volquez
25 Chamberlain

Considering that Bowden, Inman, and Davis have had the best years of the bolded pitchers (in fact, the best years of any of these 25 other than Clay and Joba), there's no argument for including Carrasco, Gonzalez, etc., and exluding them.

by Eric Van on Aug 4, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That Is . . .

Including Davis and the othera and excluding Inman and Bowden.

by Eric Van on Aug 4, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Miller is out with an elbow injury, though

the report is supposedly he could return this season.

Hello Eric Van,

If I understood your post below correctly (and correct me if I didn't,) about John and the others' preseason listings for 2008, I'm encouraged, and even amazed, that Miller is #1 on that list - I don't know if that suggests they too think that the elbow injury is not serious, or if they're just placing him there on the premise that he remains healthy (though I think they usually take injury concerns into account when they rank them, so I'm thinking that they must think the latest elbow injury is not serious.)

But clearly, Miller wasn't right after returning from the DL; his K/IP rate was solid, but his H/IP and BB/IP certainly weren't, not like they were before he went on the DL.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Aug 5, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The List

The midseason top 50 was compiled two weeks ago. Even though I don't agree with some of the rankings, I didn't change it one single bit. All I did was scratch out the players who project to not be eligible come spring.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/7/19/195936/017

by rwperu34 on Aug 4, 2007 7:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The final guy

was chosen 2 weeks ago. The first few guys were voted on 6 weeks ago or so.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Aug 4, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no way Fernando Martinez should be top 10

The guy didn't even have 300 AB's this year. He he hit for little power and only drew 20 BB's.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 4, 2007 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

but not for those reasons. I've read he may be out for the season. So, he hasn't been healthy in the 2 years he's played and that should factor into the rankings in some capacity. I can't justify ranking someone that high who can't stay on the field. I think his age performance relative to the league is fine and his somewhat low walk total is fine for his age and certainly doesn't disqualify him from being top 10. His inability to stay on the field, however, does.

by andwoo on Aug 4, 2007 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only reason this might be a lackluster list...

... is that it doesn't include '07 draftees. By the offseason, with Price and Wieters and LaPorta and Porcello (maybe) all on there, some of whom will have fantastic debuts, this list will be as strong as last year's one. If there's a difference, I doubt it will be much.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 4, 2007 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

that was not meant to be any sort of comprehensive list of draftees who should be on there.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 4, 2007 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2007 Draftees

When the players selected in this years draft are being counted on to supply a bunch of top 20 prospects, that's the sign of a weak prospect crop.

Porcello, Price and Weiters haven't even signed yet and are likely to go to the August 15th deadline. LaPorta signed and is tearing up rookie ball, but when is the last time a rookie ball prospect was in the top 20?

by rwperu34 on Aug 5, 2007 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe.

Not a bad point, but I never considered last year's BA list as weak, and it contained 3 draftees in the top 11 (Miller, Lincecum, Longoria), all of whom have had great success this year. And a grand total of 19 in their top 100.

I think there's a certain aversion to draftees among a more stat-based crowd since they have little or no pro track record, but guys drafted in, say, the top 10, are usually drafted that high for extremely good scouting reasons, and I have no problem putting them high on the list. I think rejecting the importance of draftees is rather dogmatic. Most of the guys who are drafted high end up, with a year of pro experience under their belt, again being ranked high.

I think my original point stands.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 5, 2007 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I had this feeling looking at some of the mid season updates. After about the first 10, it starts to look a bit thin. There's alot of guys I like, but everyone seems about 10-15 spots too high; except there really isn't anyone missing either.

But, I suppose by next spring more names will emerge, some recent draftees will surprise in short season ball, some guys on the verge will break out in places like the AFL, etc.

by acerimusdux on Aug 4, 2007 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Top 25

Something I threw together...

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinatti Reds
Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox
Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Joba Chamberlain, SP, New York Yankees
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cameron Maybin, OF, Detroit Tigers
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Los Angels Dodgers
Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinatti Reds
Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Brandon Wood, 3B, Los Angels Angels
Jake McGee, SP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Reid Brignac, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Jeff Clement, C, Seattle Mariners
Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinatti Reds
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox
Carlos Carrasco, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Eric Hurley, SP, Texas Rangers
Nick Adenhart, SP, Los Angels Angels
Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinatti Reds
Chris Marrero, OF, Washington Nationals

http://www.thescoreboards.com/news/base/040607.html

by koolkerns101 on Aug 4, 2007 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Christopher Marrero anyone?

Free Jason Botts

by Grrranderson on Aug 4, 2007 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i believe

jason botts has been freed (sp?)

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on Aug 4, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He momentarily has

let's see if he gets a legitimate shot. They have quickly sent him down if he struggled in the past.

Free Jason Botts

by Grrranderson on Aug 4, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Marrero rarely gets any love, but I really see no reason why he should be ranked lower than Snider at this point. They look pretty similar to me right now, and Marrero is a level above Snider at this point in time. Come to think of it, those 2 would make an interesting smackdown....

Seriously though, guys like Marrero, Antonelli, As Cabrera, etc have really flown up the rankings based on their respective performances this year.

by guru4u on Aug 4, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs