Guess the 3B!

1. ryan zimmerman
   
2. david wright
   
3. josh fields

Zimmerman
Gordon
Kouzmanoff

I'm pretty positive one is Zimmerman and 3 is Fields, I have no idea who #2 is.

To come up with those lines, I took the players LD%+.12 for BABIP, adjusted only slightly for IFF% and GB%. Then I took their HR/FB% and kind of "normalized" it, making it closer to what we expected rather than what has happened. Then I ran the players 2007 numbers through the formula, and this is what I came up with;

3B#1-.281/.356/.502, 27 HR, Alex Gordon
3B#2-.289/.342/.480, 21 HR, Ryan Zimmerman
3B#3-.255/.299/.480, 27 HR, Ryan Braun

Now, LD% is a highly volatile stat, so there's going to be a lot of variation there. Based on the batted ball data so far, Gordon and Zimmerman came out at .320 and Braun came out at .300. That's quite a difference and very likely to even out. If I adjust it based on handedness and speed, that would make it Zimmerman .300, Braun .302, and Gordon .305. Using those numbers the final tally looks like this;

Gordon, .270/.345/.491
Zimmerman, .273/.326/.464
Braun, .256/.300/.482

My "normalized" HR/FB% was somewhat of a stretch. Zimmerman is fairly solid with over 1000 AB at  ~12%, so that's where I put him. Gordon (8%) and Braun (22%) is where I really stretched it out. I made them both 15%, since nobody in their right mind would have said, or say now, that Braun has 3x the power of Gordon. In fact most people thought Gordon had more power coming into the season. If I make Gordon's rise and Braun's fall a little less pronounced at 13% and 17% respectively, the numbers look like this;

Braun, .262/.306/.506
Gordon, .264/.339/.466
Zimmerman, .273/.326/.464

The reason I went through this exercise was, I got flamed for telling a friend of mine that Miguel Cabrera was the best 3B going into next season, not Ryan Braun. He argued that Braun was the best, and I told him that Braun was closer to Gordon than Cabrera.

My conclusion is, Braun is the best of the three, but it's a lot closer than the perception. I'd still take Gordon over Zimmerman, but Zimmerman is still at a point where he could add some power, either by increasing his HR/FB%, K less, increase his FB:GB ratio, or some combination of thereof. He's not far behind, and if somebody wants to argue Zimmerman as #1 out of the three, I'll listen. What it's really going to come down to is who can make the adjustments and improve, and that's pretty much a wild card. I'd say Braun has shown the best ability to improve, but he's also the oldest. Again, the true value of Braun, Gordon, and Zimmerman is very close.

darn sabermatricians!!! lol nah good stuff