Bonderman

by Shep on Aug 26, 2007 9:30 AM EDT Comment 22 comments

This was discussed a bit in the Minor League Daily post, and it's something I've been curious about. What is Bonderman going to be?

I have Bondy in two leagues, Fantasy and Strato, and I'm really wondering what he's going to be. He is virtually unhittable at times, sharp slider, 94 FB and he looks like a Cy candidate as he did for a good part of the beginning of this season.

Now, he's lost. I don't know if he's confused about pitch selection, what the problem is w/ his 1st inning issues, but he's lost.

He's only 24 years old and I don't want to cut bait on him, but when is enough enough? Is he going to be an All Star pitcher or is he going to be Paul Wagner, Pitts pitcher with great stuff-poor results?

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Change

Last year and this, Bonderman has talked about how important the changeup is to his development. I don't think he has thrown more than 3-4 a game all year, so he is still a two pitch pitcher. The league has seen him enough as a two pitch pitcher, he absolutely has to incorporate the change into his arsenal or he will continue to get bombed.
Of course, a nice 1-2-3 first and a good outing would help his confidence immensely, and could go a long way, too.

by drwmsu1 on Aug 26, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Leyland on Bondo

From Monday's Detroit Free Press:

Jeremy Bonderman is 0-6 with an 8.78 ERA in his past seven starts after Saturday's loss. When asked about Bonderman's struggles, manager Jim Leyland gave the following explanation:

"You can't beat the Yankees (by) not throwing change-ups if you're a right-handed pitcher, with all those lefties. ... In my opinion, Bondo has to come up with a third pitch, whatever it may be. We're hoping it's a change-up."

by drwmsu1 on Aug 27, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good pitcher

I think Bonderman has already put it together enough to show he's more than just a great stuff type. At best I think he can be an ace, at worst I think he'll be a solid #3. His control is very good for a power pitcher, and I don't think his stuff is really as hittable as it has seemed of late. He had a pretty solid year last year, and I think he'll have a real breakthrough one of these years.

I think at a minimum he's a healthier, more consistent Matt Clement. In terms of ceiling, he's still got time to make his own, and is special enough that he might figure out how to do so.

by MontrealMets on Aug 26, 2007 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bondy

I'll confess that I've been waiting for a bit now for Bonderman to break through, and he has yet to do it. I think, as you say, that barring injury he'll remain a solid #3 for his career. However, if that happened, IMO it would be a big disappointment.

He has the stuff to dominate, but he has not put it all together yet. We can't forget that he's only 24, but this is also his 5th full season in the bigs. This year was especially discouraging, given the expectations he had coming in.

Bottom line, I'm getting concered, but I think Bondy is still showing some nice growth in key areas. His command's been getting better each year since 2004 (BB/9s are down each year), and with the improved command perhaps we'll see the breakthrough next year. But I'm starting to wonder if we've seen all we're gonna see from him...

by Yakker on Aug 26, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I agree that #3 would be a disappointment for a guy with his talent, but if his current level of production is the best he's going to get, I really don't think it's his fault. You don't start a 20 year old at the big league level who has one year of A+ ball experience under his belt, particularly to be on a team destined to compete with the '62 Mets for worst record ever. If Bonderman doesn't grow into the pitcher everyone thought he would be, I'm inclined to blame the Tigers for rushing him. If this is as good as he gets, the question will always be asked of what could have been had he been given some time in the high minors before going straight to the '03 Tigers.

That said, even maintaining his current level of production, he's a very useful player that just about every team in the bigs would want in their rotation.

by MontrealMets on Aug 26, 2007 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not sure I agree

In terms of workload, the Tigers were very careful with Bonderman. His IP totals were 162 at age 20, 184 at 21, 189 at 22, and 214 at 23. That, to me, is inconsistent with a guy who was rushed; it looks more like an apprenticeship.

As for pitch development, as you noted, the Tigers were pretty bad his first three years ... it was universally acknowledged then that he was the future and just getting experience. How better to learn off-speed stuff than from the major league staff?

Finally, guys work on new pitches all the time. The stakes are higher for Bonderman now that his team is good, but there's always the offseason and spring training (and, as someone said above, he's already throwing the offspeed stuff more).

I'm more worried that there's always been a big gap in his splits. Lately it's been a dropoff in the second half, but in his age 21 year it was the other way around. Conditioning issue? Concentration issue? I have no idea, but if you take his five good halves, he looks like a top-of-the-rotation guy already:

2007
1st: 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 98/24 K/W in 106 IP
2nd: 7.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 40/20 K/W in 54.2 IP

2006
1st: 3.46, 1.14, 111/30 in 119.2
2nd: 4.87, 1.49, 91/34 in 94.1

2005
1st: 3.99, 1.24, 93/34 in 121.2
2nd: 5.61, 1.56, 52/23 in 67.1

2004
1st: 6.03, 1.51, 83/45 in 94
2nd: 3.70, 1.10, 85/28 in 90

2003
1st: 4.88, 1.40, 78/31 in 103.1
2nd: 6.75, 1.81, 30/27 in 58.2

by whichthat on Aug 26, 2007 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Though I still like his upside, I have always stayed away from him in trade offers due to his second half fades, 2004 notwithstanding :)

by JayhawkTom on Aug 27, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he should be the closer if he has 2 pitches

Could move into the closer spot like Smoltz as Detroit does have a leaky pen. Can't have Todd Jones closing next year, as he is Bob Wickman's brother.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 26, 2007 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

I wish I knew what was wrong with him. Of course I moved Lackey for him in a keeper league last month, on the eve of Bonderman's 1,000 ER outing against LAA. It's been downhill ever since :(

Knowing my luck, he's probably hurt.

by rdf8585 on Aug 26, 2007 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I like the views.

I hadn't thought of the possible injury factor but that could be it.

However, I'm concerned about the same 2nd half swoons each year. Is he tired? Because all the potential doesn't mean much if all he's going to be is a league avg pitcher (though the 2nd half he hasn't been quite that, even).

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Aug 26, 2007 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no breakthrough

unless he adds a true off-speed pitch. He has improved considerably each year. But I think he has reached his limit as a 2 pitch pitcher. A solid low 4's ERA guy.

This current bad spell will go away.

But as a 2 pitch guy he really needs everything working to dominate. If he would truly go with the breaking ball and take his lumps (like Bedard last year) then he could become an ace. Until then what you see is what you get. It's pretty good but not great.

by pedrophile on Aug 26, 2007 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yesterday's Outing

Something quick to note as someone who has watched almost all of Bondo's starts this year yesterday in the first inning he threw very few fastballs for the first time all year. He used exclusively his change up and slider to try and get ahead in the counts. When Matsui came up and singled off of him he was sitting on the first pitch fastball as most people do with him in the first inning becuase he's trying to establish it. After he got on i think the mental side took over. Once that subsides i think a little confidence will give him what he needs to be a solid #2. He may have a year or two where he has ace like stuff but he probably will never be an ace. Seems like a very dependable number two for years to come.

by rpm2419 on Aug 26, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mental toughness

You know, I've heard people talk a lot about Bondy getting emotional and losing his cool when he gets hit a bit.

However, while I haven't watched him as much as you have, outside of one oft-repeated incident last year where he threw his arms up in the air after allowing a homer when he got squeezed by the ump, he's always seemed just fine to me, deameanor-wise.

Also, according to the numbers, Bonderman has consistently been above-average in strand rates throughout his career, registering rates in the mid to high 60s, which makes me wonder where this whole "lack of confidence" thing comes from...

by Yakker on Aug 26, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Reaction

He is a man of very little emotion unless it is a really big play but IMO he just has something going on between his ears where he can not overcome the first innings woe's once something bad happens to him. I believe had that been the second inning he would have got out of it no problem. Its been a continuing theme all year. He can get the first couple outs and no one will be on but if one person gets on he starts worrying about the runner because he's so easy to steal on and i think that that takes away from his focus on location. Then when he focuses on the hitter the runner steals and is now in scoring position and he starts trying to make the perfect pitch which usually leads to a walk. After beating himself up over that he knows he has to get the next guy and tries to get ahead with a first pitch fastball which is usually right down broadway and is hit and scores 1 or 2 runs. That in a nutshell is how almost every first inning has went this year. I believe it has to be mental. He tried to go to the slide step yesterday but abreu still stole second. He may not show emotion but something is going on soon as someone reaches in that first inning. I believe one flawless first inning ends this slump and he finishes strong. Thats if that scoreless first ever comes. If he gets it, it will be a huge mental hurdle and we should see a better Bonderman than we have over the past 2 months.

by rpm2419 on Aug 26, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I value your insight, as someone who watches Bondy pitch regularly. However, I still wonder, if he has so much trouble, why has he consistently put up above-average strand rates since he's come into the league?

Despite league averages of 72%, he's posted 69% from 2004-06, and he's dropped the strand rate to 66% this year. Now, some of that may be luck, but a pitcher who can consistently beat the strand rates year-after-year is doing something right.

I don't know if we can get it, but it would be interesting to see Bondy's 4-year strand rates for the first inning. Perhaps those are much higher.

by Yakker on Aug 27, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tired

I couldn't read on after I see people touting Bonderman as a future #3. He's a #1 right now, this very minute, and I wasn't even aware that was up for debate.

by rwperu34 on Aug 27, 2007 6:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ridiculous

No WAY is Bondo a #1 right now. You've got to produce to be an ace. Aces are consistent and almost always post sub-4.00 ERAs with ease and generally should be below 3.40. Bonderman pitches in a pitchers park and in five seasons still hasn't finished a season below 4.00 and has a career ERA of 4.75.

Just because a pitcher has a power arsenal doesn't mean he's an ace. Aces produce consistently at a high level.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bondeje01.shtml

by McLovin on Aug 27, 2007 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ERA

I wasn't aware that we still used ERA to judge how good a pitcher is? Bonderman is a #1 starter, he's just running cold (and tired).

by rwperu34 on Aug 27, 2007 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ERA

Is ERA the end all be all? No. But you can't dismiss it entirely either. I agree with McLovin that a pitcher with 5 straight years of not being able to post a sub-4.00 era can not be considered an ace. That bar is low enough that an ace shouldn't fall on the wrong side of it every year. That's not bad luck. That's inconsistency.

Quite frankly you'd have to be a loser to continue to be so tolerant of mediocre production to label Bondo an ace. Winners don't make excuses for mediocrity. What ever happened to earning respect? People just want to give it away these days. Potential ace? Perhaps. Already an ace? No way.

by TINSTAAPP on Aug 27, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So

Tell us, what metrics would you use to measure who is an ace?

His ERA+ on the year is 90, which is below-average and puts him in the company of guys like Robertson and Millwood, who we can all agree are not aces.

I'm not at all ready to give up on Bonderman (as noted above, I think the reduced BB/9s 4 years running are a good sign), but I do not consider him one of the top 10 SPs in the league right now.

by Yakker on Aug 27, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

ERA is the best statistic to evaluate how a pitcher performed. How many runs did he give up.

Rate stats are great for predicting future success. But nothing beats ERA for evaluating how someone did.

Vazquez the other night:
6IP 3BB 10K's 6Hits.

The BB / K is very nice. Hits not bad. Based on rate stats (excluding ERA) you would say it's a decent or solid start. Only problem is he gave up 7 runs. He pitched like shit. Maybe he was unlucky. Possible. But his results were terrible.

Bonderman has consistently improved his results every year. That is encouraging.

Bonderman has consistently had no better than a #3 starter results though.

I would consider him a #3 pitcher with the upside of an ace.

by pedrophile on Aug 27, 2007 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bonderman...

is the new Kerry Wood/Eric Chavez right now.

He's one of those kickass talents that every year I'm all "watch he's gonna kick ass" and at the end of the year I'm all "oh come on...its not what I expected but it's not BAD."

Anyway, since he's only 24 I'm gonna stick it out and see where it goes...he's talented and the franchise seems to have a brain now so...

by SenorGato88 on Aug 28, 2007 12:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs