GIANTS FANS COME IN!!!

by bartonboi on Aug 14, 2007 1:53 AM EDT Comment 12 comments

hey guys as a huge Giants fan I'm starting to get very worried about the Giants ability to sign 10th overall pick Madison Bumgarner who says he wants kershaw money who was drafted #7 overall much more polished and by the hated dodgers. First of all I always thought we should have drafted Heyward and Dominguez over someone like Bumgarner but if were gonna draft him at least sign him! So what do you guys think what is Bumgarners upside? would u have rather drafted someone else?

(from minor league baseball .com)

10. San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Of all the top first-round picks, this one could be the frontrunner to not work out. Rumor has it that Bumgarner is looking for Clayton Kershaw money. Kershaw, also a high school lefty, was the No. 7 overall pick in last year's draft and, by most accounts, was a much more polished pitcher than Bumgarner coming out of the prep ranks. Bumgarner is a University of North Carolina recruit, but there have been grumblings that he'll head to San Jacinto Junior College if he doesn't sign, so he can re-enter in 2008. Of course, that could be a bargaining ploy.

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Oh, there's plenty of upside here. Tons of projection and already throws very hard for a southpaw. Has the makings of what should at least be a decent changeup. If he figures out his breaking stuff he could be a real good one.

I don't think he's worth Kershaw money at this point, as he's certainly something of a project, but if he went to JC and showed a good breaker then he could go higher next year than he did this year. Not sure why the Giants would use such a high pick on Bumgarner if they didn't have a good feel for how much money it was going to take to get the deal done.

by mrkupe on Aug 14, 2007 1:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We need help!

Another Giant fan here, just voicing my opinion.
So after going to the article and reading more about Bumgarner and the new prospect signing rules I have decided we can afford not signing him. Under the rules the team is "cushioned somewhat under the new rules. If a team doesn't sign its first-, second- or third-round pick, there is compensation, moreso than in the past.

Any team that fails to sign its first- or second-round selection will pick exactly one spot later in the following year's draft. If, for example, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are unable to sign No. 1 pick David Price, they would get the No. 2 overall in 2008, in addition to their normal pick. If a club doesn't sign its third-rounder, it will receive a sandwich pick between the third and fourth rounds the following year." (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070813&content_id=288492&vkey=news _milb&fext=.jsp)

So if the Giant's don't like there latest pick then go back next year with the 11th pick next year and the top 5 pick we'll get next year and rebuild this stinking team.

by rwgiants1 on Aug 14, 2007 2:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Take It Or Leave It Madison!

He's definitely not worth Kershaw money and he's not worth what Lincecum got last year. I'd go ahead and offer him what Tim got last year, $2 M, and say take it or leave it. He'd be crazy to risk injury or poor performance and lose out altogether. Next year's draft looks a lot stronger for college hitters so Giants don't have a lot of incentive to break the bank. I'd rather see him sign than not, but not desperate.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 14, 2007 3:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I Second that

We need hitters at this point anyway. I was scratching my head when they went with Bumgarner anyway.

by rwgiants1 on Aug 14, 2007 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would pay him

As long as it's not on a Major League contract. He might need the extra development time that a Porcello likely will not, but SF definitely has the $$ available, and Bumgarner's upside is high enough that giving him $4MM or so as a signing bonus is totally justified.

Heck, they paid Bonds $15MM more than they had to this year.

by guru4u on Aug 14, 2007 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

THe other side of the argument is that we're talking about less than $500K, about the cost of a minimum wage player. Why lose out on a high #1 draft pick over such a small amount of money? It recalls the Giants losing out of Barry Bonds out of HS for $75K.

By the same token, does MadBum really want to risk losing the $1.8 M slot money for one year of JC ball? If he's a good student and wants the experience and education from a place like UNC, I could understand it, but JC? Come on, I would take that as a bargaining ploy. The liklihood that he is going to increase his value with a year in JC is a lot less than the liklihood he might blow out his arm or perform below expectations.

Seems like this is a deal that both sides need to get done. Hope it doesn't fall apart out of stubborness on one side or both.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 14, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Agreed on most of this. I think UNC would be a fine idea for Bumgarner . . .they do a good job of developing their arms and Bumgarner by most accounts is going to need a pretty decent amount of work. I don't think a JC is really going to be in his best interests from a developmental perspective, and it always worries me when a player is clearly much more concerned about their short-term security than working on actually becoming a successful major league caliber pitcher.

by mrkupe on Aug 14, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i say give him the

extra 100,000=200,000 to sign him because 93-97 mph lefty's dont grow on trees he has a useable change adn maybe he doesnt have a breaking ball is because he didnt want to put early starin on his arm or that he just didnt have to in otherwords he has a very fresh arm I understand why they drafted him but I wouldn't have now that we have lets go ahead and sign him. Also because he's so raw he has an incredible upside ala andrew miller the 2 pitch wonder. also good news wendell has agreed to sign what does everyone think his upside can be?

by bartonboi on Aug 14, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fairley

Great news on Fairley. Looks like more than a speed leadoff guy. Think a younger version of Fred Lewis with more power. May take some time to develop.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 14, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Quite frankly, concerned about Fairley. Very, very talented, but also extremely raw with questionable makeup and dedication. Not really a good combination to see in a 1st round pick, but we'll see.

by mrkupe on Aug 14, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I like about Fairley

I am pretty excited over Fairley. Remember, all the accolades that he has gotten as a hitter is based on the limited time he has spent as a hitter. He has spent a lot of time as a pitcher, he's like a lot of top prospects, both pitching well and hitting well. Now he can concentrate on being a hitter.

As well, he's a standout football player as well. Again, more free time for him to concentrate on becoming the best position player that he can be.

So with all those other demands on his development time now gone away, and given how good he played in spite of that, I'm hoping that the extra time he now has to spend just on hitting will help him become even better. You have to be pretty dedicated to be able to pull off being very good as a football player, pitcher, and hitter. But yeah, very raw.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Aug 14, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Calm down guys

One, it is not like there aren't a lot of other teams also in our same shoes, so it's not like the Giants are doing anything wrong.

Two, Madison Bumgarner also has to weigh in, in addition to the injury risk, that he was not even mock draft selected this high in the draft. So he could end up in the middle of the draft or late in the draft, and it would be harder to ignore that bonus, even one in the low $1M range, as another year in JC would pretty much blow and he wouldn't develop that much there, given the low level of competition there.

Three, he may ask for Kershaw money but that's what negotiators do, they ask for the moon first, then meet in the middle somewhere. So while they are asking for $2.3M, they might be hoping for "just" Lincecum money, which is $225K over slot right now according to BA.

Four, as maligned as Giants management as been, they have been relatively generous with their first picks over the years. Last year, based on the bonuses being paid around him, Lincecum should have gotten "only" $1.8M but ended up with $2.025M.

Five, even if it is only $1.8M, it is still $1.8M, few people have the balls to turn that down, and those who do are the extra greedy players who have already signed with Boras.

MadBum's advisors probably told them to wait out the Giants to get every last dollar they can get out them before signing. If they get lucky, the guys around #10 will sign above slot by a lot and give them the grounds to demand a higher bonus from the Giants. At worse, you sign at the last minute and you're $1.8M richer.

That's my last point, basically that because MadBum's advisors (and the rest of the first round advisors) have to do something, anything, to justify their fee for advising the players, they have to push the negotiations to the final drop and say that they did everything they could for their clients. Else the player could have not even used an advisor and picked up their slot money immediately, without any fees to any advisor. That's a gain of $200K right there if they are being paid 10%. So getting $200K over slot would pay for their fee.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Aug 14, 2007 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs