Gordon, Pence, J. Upton

by montenegro on Aug 10, 2007 4:54 PM EDT

Out of these three guys, how would you rank them in terms of production/overall numbers within the next five years (starting at the beginning of next season)?

Obviously Gordon and Upton have the better pedigree in terms of John's grades and position on most prospect lists over the last few years, but the way Pence played in the first half moves him up.

What's the correct order? Upton, Gordon, Pence....?

Poll

Who has the best overall #s in 5 years

Justin Upton

132 votes

Hunter Pence

11 votes

Alex Gordon

47 votes

190 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Pence is good

but I just don't see him being in the class of the other two down the road.

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by was385 on Aug 10, 2007 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

Upton

when ever this guy is at the plate you expect him to get a hit. He is also much younger.

Pence is hard for me to judge. He doesnt walk much and doesnt have the prettiest swing, but as soon as you start doubting him he goes 3-4.

by nyy601 on Aug 10, 2007 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

I think it'll be Upton by a landslide because I don't really like the other two as much. I've never been super high on Gordon like everyone else has. He'll have a great career but it wont be MVPish. He'll make a few All-Star games but he wont be the monster people are expecting. I see him maxing around 20 HR with solid average and good speed. Whereas I could really see Upton dominating a baseball game the way Hanley or Jose do. Just a great combo of speed and power. Someone you'll have to worry about on the basepaths, at the plate, and in the field. I'm really not high on Pence. His swing is just toooooo ugly. He has a fast bat but I think pitchers will exploit his hitch and holes next season.

You can kill me now for hating on Gordon. He'll be good but I don't see him as good as John's crystal ball that people were complaining about. Or as good as the community Crystal ball when people were saying he'll get MVP votes or win.

by JD Sussman on Aug 10, 2007 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

Pence

At every single stop people have predicted that Pence will not hit because he is unorthodox. I don't think he'll match Uptons numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has better stats than Gordon over the next five years.

by tpeichel34 on Aug 10, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

its possible

But i believe there is a reason why you don't see players with huge hitches in the swing often in the league. That is because they don't have much staying power and are often figured out. Every swing has holes and the keep is to keep adjusting so that when the pitchers figure you out you can adjust. Pence has adjusted in the minors so I don't see a reason why he couldn't in the Majors. However, If i was a betting man I wouldn't bet on him being far above replacement level in 5 years.

by JD Sussman on Aug 10, 2007 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

all right

but what other hitch guys have made it to the point pence has? plowing through the minors and the first couple of months in the majors without as much as really even a slump? i don't know the answer myself, maybe there are past cases to look at. but it seems sort of like the lincecum argument in a way -

"name me all the 5'10" pitchers who came up out of college throwing 99 and stayed healthy."
"uh... i can't think of anybody."
"HA!"
"ok, you name me all the 5'10" pitchers who came up out of college throwing 99 and got hurt."
"uh..."

by wily mo on Aug 10, 2007 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

but isn't that the point?

That it just doesn't happen ever. So I tend to think that because most people with a swing like that aren't successful that his success will drop off significantly. Its my opinion based on the 20 or so ABs I've seen of him and the fact that his hitch is so severe that he will likely come across problems down the line.

I don't know if you can compare Lincecum. I tend to think he has a higher chance of injury not because of his size (which imo is very silly) but because of the violent delivery he has. The amount of torque put on his inner shoulder because of his devilery is a lot. The amount of room that is created by throwing his body in front and whipping his arm creates a lot of tension.

To note: I am double jointed in my right and left shoulder. Its a stupid term but that basically means my ligaments are much stronger than most peoples to the point i can stretch them out and dislocate them at will to create extreme torque without pain. I did not tear my labrum playing baseball or tennis but I had a very very similar motion to Tim. And I can tell you personally that it is a very dangerous motion IMO.

by JD Sussman on Aug 10, 2007 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

well, no

but isn't that the point?

That it just doesn't happen ever. So I tend to think that because most people with a swing like that aren't successful that his success will drop off significantly.

no, that's sort of the opposite of the point. the question is, zero successes out of how many attempts?

by wily mo on Aug 10, 2007 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Zero Attempts?

To think that he is the only person to attempt to play baseball with a serve hitch is rather dense, no? I'm sure if either of us did some research we could find quite a few. But not many stars have ever had a hitch. Except one guy who hit 660 HRs. I forget his name but i think he was next to barry bonds the other night for some reason.

by JD Sussman on Aug 10, 2007 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

let's go back to what i originally said.

but what other hitch guys have made it to the point pence has? plowing through the minors and the first couple of months in the majors without as much as really even a slump?

and then failed after that, as you suggest pence will.

by wily mo on Aug 10, 2007 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

haha

I guess we'll differ on this so there is no reason in arguing more.

But I tend to believe that a hitch is a negative aspect of a swing. Its something that coaches everywhere try to get out of players swings. Can we agree on that? If we can then i think we can agree that is definitely isn't the first player to have a hitch at that their either failed, were changed, or made it to the show and flamed out.

Maybe other players haven't had that success he has had. But maybe others have I don't think either of us can confirm or deny that. I'll just say that I don't like his swing and that pitchers will figure him out to the point he will be average or just above average. He wont be a star, he'll never make an all star game and I certainly don't think he'll ever hit near 25 HRs. He might pull a good average in a few years because he has a very very level swing which i like, but I don't see him being a stud at all. Definitely not on the level of these two.

by JD Sussman on Aug 10, 2007 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

wait

...can't we talk about Lincecum for a while more?

Jay Bruce can DISAPPEAR

by ufoboy90 on Aug 10, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Gordon...

you're really underrating him. What makes you think that he won't hit .300, 35-40 HR, and 100+ RBi's in his prime, like the scouts think? All this said, I still think Upton is the better player, but both will get their fair share of MVP considerations.

by adschofield on Aug 10, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope so

Gordon has looked like crap the past few weeks. It's hard to watch him bat right now...

by doublestix on Aug 10, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

He's going to

be streaky for the rest of the season, but I think he's really going to turn some heads next season.

by adschofield on Aug 10, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

My Opinion

Is that I really like the way he uses his lower half. His stride is quiet and he loads his legs pretty well. But I don't think he uses his lower back well at all, he seems stiff around there. His hands don't load well IMO either, he keeps them a little to close to his chest which leads to excess movement.

However he does have a very quick bat through the zone. He doesn't have a long stroke and really attacks the ball. I think he'll have a good career I just think a little bit more realistically about him. He easily could hit over 300 and in the 3 hole he'll get a lot of fastballs infront of butler. I don't see why he wouldn't get close to 100 RBI but that depends a lot on who is batting 8, 9, 1, 2 for KC the next few years too. But I don't see 40 HR power from him.

by JD Sussman on Aug 10, 2007 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

re

I agree to an extent with Gordon. Won't be the star most on here think. I think he''l produce better than you think, but won't be the .300-40 HR- 120 RBI guy that was hyped. I see him more along the lines of .270-.280 with 25-30 HR. Good, but not a stud.

Upton will be a stud. Better than Hanley and Jose because they could only dream of having his power.

by ScottAZ on Aug 10, 2007 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Why?

what makes you think this? Alex Gordon has gone through the typical growing pains, but his power and plate discipline is still there.

by adschofield on Aug 10, 2007 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

The developing CW seems to be, Gordon is pretty good but perhaps overrated, while Upton is the next superstar. I agree that Upton is great, but I just don't see how Gordon can now rate out as a "B" star.

I sense some SNT issues here--fatigue in the case of Gordon and novelty in the case of Upton.

Can we really conclude, based on a subpar 3/4 of a season out of a young guy who was saddled with the psychological pressure of Franchise Savior, that his upside is now 'occasional all-star'?

by manhands on Aug 10, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

<<Can we really conclude, based on a subpar 3/4 of a season out of a young guy who was saddled with the psychological pressure of Franchise Savior, that his upside is now 'occasional all-star'?>>

when was his upside ever more than this? I would think occasional all-star would be a pretty good upside.

In the AL we have Glaus and Chavez as our occasional all-stars. The one superstar is ARod. Gordon is not the next ARod. So people are saying he will be like Chavez/Glaus. I think that's being generous.

by pedrophile on Aug 11, 2007 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Chavez/Glaus

Chavez sucks. Glaus is good. Gordon will be better than both. I could see him having comparable power to Glaus, but he's going to hit for a much higher average.

Gordon's upside has always been MVP candidate. And I still believe he can be that type of player.

by ajohnst1 on Aug 11, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

so I guess this

2001 - AL Gold Glove Award (3B) 2002 - AL Gold Glove Award (3B), AL Silver Slugger Award (3B), AL MVP (Voting Rank: #14), Baseball America First-Team Major League All-Star 3B 2003 - AL Gold Glove Award (3B), AL MVP (Voting Rank: #17) 2004 - AL Gold Glove Award (3B), AL MVP (Voting Rank: #30) 2005 - AL Gold Glove Award (3B), AL MVP (Voting Rank: #21) 2006 - AL Gold Glove Award (3B)

with an OPS of 833 for one of the best fields 3B is a letdown as a prospect?

by pedrophile on Aug 11, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Re:

"They could only dream of having his power"

A little premature for this statement IMO. Hanley is on pace for 28HR this year and is slugging .570. He's still maturing and could easily show 35HR power in his prime. I know Justin is great but I haven't heard too many predictions of anything more than 35HR power...

Bravesin07 is so damn reactionary. I bet when his mother took him to the Dr., his leg kicked before the Dr. hit his knee with the reflex hammer. --slurve

by Dfarth on Aug 11, 2007 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

re

and how many bombs did Reyes drop last year? How many this year? Of Hanley's tools power was supposedly his least, this year's spike aside. Hanley could prove to be a consistent 20+ guy from the SS spot, or this could be a aberration and he could drop down to 10-15 (like Reyes). Only time will tell. Most scouts will tell you Upton has more raw power than either of them though

by ScottAZ on Aug 13, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Gordon

If he had raked all year in AAA, there would be no doubts about Gordon at all.

He's still figuring it out at the major league level.

I still think he's going to be a mega stud.

by GregJP on Aug 11, 2007 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

he had a hit tonight!

His first in like 5 years.

I think his season would have been so much different if he delivered vs Schilling in his first AB of the year, with the bases loaded no less...

by doublestix on Aug 11, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Calling DougDirt, Calling DougDirt

Please answer the white courtesy phone.

This poll would have really been interesting if Jay Bruce had been included. He'll most likely get called up in September or after the AAA playoffs at the latest. Then he should be starting somewhere Opening Day '08 like all the other guys. My answer would still be Jupton though. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Aug 11, 2007 2:19 AM EDT reply actions