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Why are so many people here down on Garza?

He's still just 23 years old, and he pitched great against the White Sox last night. But from reading through past diaries, it seems like a large percentage of the people here have soured on him.

What gives?

No, he's not going to be the next Liriano, but I see no reason to believe that he can't be an outstanding major league pitcher in his own right.

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I still like him
I think he is going to be a lot like Lackey is for the Angels and will have a few AS appearances.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 7, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

everyone went crazy on him last year
and then he had the audacity to look meh his first time out and didn't put up big numbers this year so it's on to the next big thing.

Either that or they traded him for Guthrie, Marcum, and Josh Hamilton.

by pedrophile on Jul 7, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

duh
because he struggled in his first 50 mlb innings. Obviously he's a joke and will never amount to anything.

Oh look, another shiny prospect to hype has appeared. We will love him until he gets rocked in the majors then he sucks.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Jul 7, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah not a lot of people dominant
even Nolan Ryan sucked at the beginning.  Greg Maddux went 6-14 I think with a 5 plus ERA.  Glavine was subpar early and lost 17 games in one season, Smoltz was bad for 3 years until 1991 really.  I think Garza is a excellent #3 and a solid 2 and will have Lackey type success.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 7, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

um
if garza is an excellent #3, and solid #2, how can you say he will have the same kind of success as lackey, who is a pretty clear #1? there are about five guys in baseball who are clearly better pitchers than lackey, and maybe around 7 others who are on his level (felix, bondo, sheets, and haren are the guys i think are closest). that's a #1 starter by anybody's definition.

by jpahk on Jul 7, 2007 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maddux and Glavine,
didn't necessarily play for good teams, that's part of the reason why their records were poor.  The Twins are annual playoff contenders now.  They can provide run support.  Those are completely different situations.
"Standard disclaimer: it's baseball, even if he's cooked, someone'll overpay." -drjayphd

by JT12340 on Jul 8, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my concern
is that his secondary pitches, depending on who you talk to, are only average. I don't see him being a dominant starter with average secondary pitches and without a 98 mph fastball.

by phuturephillies on Jul 7, 2007 2:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
I mean how many dominant pitchers have existed with anything less than a 98 MPH fastball and a super-mega-plus breaking ball?

by SenorGato88 on Jul 7, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His curve is not average
BA rated it the top breaking ball in the minors last year. It's a 12/6 yacker that comes in at the knees and ends up in the dirt. And it's 20 MHP slower than his fastball.

His slider is above average ans his change is average. So he does have room for improvement there. But lots of guys get by with two good to excellent pitches. Bert Blyleven, for example.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jul 8, 2007 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of reaons...
One is that he's no longer a "prospect".  

It seems once a player has 50 big league innings or 100 AB under his belt, we get bored with him.

There are so many talented young players in that category who have yet to reach their ceilings, who might be future stars, and who easily get ignored or forgotten, that I think it would be interesting to do a top non-prospects list.  I'm thinking of guys like Franklin Gutierrez.  But I'm not sure what the cutoff would be for eligibility.

Another is that the scouting on Garza was never quite as good as the numbers suggested, so some overrated him a bit last year.  He's got a good overall repertoire though, and will likely be at least a solid #3 type.  

This happens all the time here, a guy having a good season numbers wise at lower levels gets over rated, a guy moves up a level and struggles a bit, and he's under rated.  There's a bit too much worry about what a player has done in the last couple of months, and not enough looking at the big picture including scouting and reasonable expectations as far as experience and level.

Last year, guys like Saltalamacchia, Pie, and even Upton were under rated by some, this year they're stars again.  I would say that Joba Chamberlain and Yovani Gallardo are currently a bit over rated.

 

by acerimusdux on Jul 7, 2007 2:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I get Joba
but what makes Gallardo overrated? He followed a stellar 06 with a stellar first half here, including a few strong showings in the bigs. He's shown more than a lot of other more touted guys have.
Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Jul 7, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only a bit...
A year ago this time I thought he was one of the more under rated guys.  I guess it's only seeing him at #3 makes me think he's now over rated now, though I would still have him likley in the top 15.

Mostly I see him as a polished guy with good command and a good repertoire, but still have some doubts about his ceiling.  

The guys at brewerfan.net, by the way, who know the Brewers prospects better than most anyone, currently have Gallardo as the #2 guy in that system.  Now that's not a big knock against him, as Braun is in the top 5 here as well.  But I personally would have him below at least Bailey and Andrew Miller.

Mostly I see his ceiling as somewhat similar to Garza, good, but not really ace potential.  Really just an example what I mean by guys moving around too much on short term numbers, going almost from nowhere a year ago, to #3, and if he were still eligible for another list 6 months or a year later (looks like he won't be), I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall back to around 20.

by acerimusdux on Jul 7, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Takes more than stuff to be an ace...
and from what I've seen from Gallardo I like ALOT.

Dude is a much better pitcher than I thought he was.

by SenorGato88 on Jul 8, 2007 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please take that last line out...
I feel like the guy whose talking out of his ass this morning.

Alot of alcohol + 3 hours of sleep = Bad poster.

by SenorGato88 on Jul 8, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a Twins Fan......
"settling" for John Lackey isn't too bad.  Watching last night the biggest difference that I saw compared to his outings last year (I watched him bombed at the dome twice) was a fastball that seemed to bore down and frustrate hitters.  

There were so many instances last night where it seemed that ChiSox hitters were surprised with the movement that Garza had down in the zone.  (Then again there were a lot of things the ChiSox were frustrated about yesterday)

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jul 7, 2007 4:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i'm not down on garza
i was just never particularly up on garza. his numbers in the minors last year were otherworldly, but i still didn't feel like he ever deserved to be ranked among the game's best pitching prospects. and i still feel that way; he's only slipped a little bit this year in my mind. his ranking of #20 on the community poll is just slightly ahead of where i'd slot him; he's clearly behind guys like hughes, the millers, kershaw, and buchholz, and more in line with the next group which includes davis, hurley, and gio. (right now i think bailey is the only guy who is solidly between those two groups, so he doesn't really slot into either one.)

garza's a good pitching prospect. he's better than boof bonser and scott baker were. i just don't see why he merits inclusion with the elite pitching prospects. maybe it's because i haven't seen him pitch and am a little skeptical of the claims that his stuff took a huge step forward last year; if it's still there, why did he struggle this year in AAA?

by jpahk on Jul 7, 2007 8:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well
I'd suggest watching him then.  If a 96 MPH fastball and a 79 MPH 12-6er isn't impressive, I don't know what is.

check out the top video

Very similar repertoire to Clay Buchholz actually.  A bit tighter of a curve and a bit less feel for the changeup (which he flashed about 10 times last night and was actually very devastating).

by limozeen on Jul 7, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well
his fastball doesn't have much movement. His curveball wasn't missing any bats. He was getting a lot of foul offs, which might mean they'll eventually be able to hit his pitches. I think next time the chisox will be able to hit him up, though the offense is doing pretty awful this year.

by ultxmxpx on Jul 8, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

question mark
The fastball has movement down in the zone early in the count.  Garza goes up the ladder with a straight four-seamer, but he works early in the count with low, moving fastballs in the 92-94 range.  After Garza put a runner on with one out, he threw a moving fastball at the knees on the outside corner to Jermaine Dye that induced a tailor-made double play to second base.

His curve induced lots of poor swings, but more importantly, he kept it down and the most notable hit on it was on an AJ Pierzysnki defensive slap with two strikes that turned into a low popup behind the third baseman.  He got two of six strikeouts on the curve, one swinging and one looking.

His changeup was much-improved and he flashed the ability to throw it in the strike zone and completely baffle hitters.  He threw it in several unexpected counts.  It has great movement to the arm side and comes in about 10 MPH slower than the FB.

But the worst observation of your post is the fouling off thing.  The only batter who did this was notorious fouler AJ Pierzynski, and the pitches he fouled off were very, very good low curveballs.

As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative, Garza basically did everything right.  He kept the fastball down early in the count, left the curve below the bats of the hitters, effectively used his changeup in various counts, and blew batters away with the high fastball when necessary.

by limozeen on Jul 8, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Impatience
As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative

I don't think anyone is trying to turn his last start into a negative. Given last falls performance, it is clearly a definite improvement. There are really two related questions, can he repeat it and if he can will major league hitters catch up to him and get better results. In any case, we are likely to find out since he pitched well enough to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation.

I think a lot of people here are impatient. When guys are doing well in the minors, they are impatient for them to be in the major leagues. And when they get to the major leagues they are impatient if they struggle. Garza suffered a bit from that phenomena. He still does.

Garza has the potential to be a number one starter. But there are a fair number of guys who have that potential who are still never successful as major league starters. Garza still has a ways to go to be mentioned in the same breath as Glavine or Maddux. He could just as easily be the next Willie Banks or Pat Mahomes.

by TT on Jul 8, 2007 8:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hmm
I'd say the dude who said "his fastball doesn't have much movement. His curveball wasn't missing any bats. He was getting a lot of foul offs, which might mean they'll eventually be able to hit his pitches. I think next time the chisox will be able to hit him up, though the offense is doing pretty awful this year." was trying to turn the last start into a negative.  That's just me though.

by limozeen on Jul 8, 2007 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's right
That's just me though.

Yep. Its just you. He was evaluating what he saw of Garza's stuff, not his last outing.

by TT on Jul 8, 2007 11:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not just him
I'd say limozeen read that just fine, actually.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reading comprehension
I'd say limozeen read that just fine, actually.

I'd say neither of you can read very well then. Or you forgot that the goal in baseball is to win games. Its pretty clear that what he was saying was that despite having a good game, Garza's stuff is not all that good. I doubt he is right, but it doesn't turn his last start into a negative to say his next start will be.

by TT on Jul 9, 2007 10:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Charity
May I suggest a little charity here? It's not a matter of reading comprehension but of interpretation, especially in the cryptic catecombs of the blogosphere. You know as well as anyone that two-line comments are open to a variety of interpretations. The principal of charity suggests that we interpret them in the best possible light.

In particular, if this is what he meant, he's a fool:

Garza's stuff is not all that good

I don't know how anyone can say something like that if he knew anything about Garza. He has the best stuff of any Twins starter. He has better stuff than most prospects or recent rookies--just a notch below Verlander. Anyone who's seen him pitch would conclude that his stuff is plenty good to be a top starter in the league.

Garza struggles with command, as most power pitchers do in the first couple of years of breaking into the big leagues. Stuff is not his problem.

So perhaps they were trying to read him so that he didn't sound like a fool. Something like, "Let's not get too excited about one start. Let's see consistent command for a month before we determine how good he is." That's a sensible position.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jul 9, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmmmm
"Its pretty clear that what he was saying was that despite having a good game, Garza's stuff is not all that good. I doubt he is right, but it doesn't turn his last start into a negative to say his next start will be."
  1. He never said he had a good game. All he said were negatives. Agreed, the "good game" was implied by the fact he DIDN'T do anything but bash Garza and suggest he got lucky, but you're putting words into the entry that aren't even there to make it seem like it was more positive.
  2. Neither limozeen (just speculating) nor I thought that the fact Garza won meant he necessarily had a good game. The word "negative" pretty clearly refers to "how you think they'll do in the future" with prospects. And here we are, on a prospect site.
When a prospect who had been struggling has a good start, the question is always "was this a step forward or not?" The poster in question said "absolutely not." limozeen asked "How can you say this wasn't a step forward?" Somehow, you misinterpeted limozeen's question into being, "Didn't Garza win?" which is a ridiculously stupid and nonsensical question. Given your misunderstanding, I see the reason you felt a need to correct limozeen. However, I believe it would behoove you to receive a bit of reading comprehension yourself before you misunderstand any more conversations.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks
I try not to get into semantics debates with people who drag out threads on the meaning of "dominance," so I appreciate it.

by limozeen on Jul 9, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no problem....
his initial post bothered me enough where I felt something had to be said. now I see why it was you wanted to avoid this semantic nonsense. that last post (following this one) was unbelievable.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Major Leagues
He never said he had a good game.

He never said he had bad game either.

you're putting words into the entry that aren't even there

You are the one putting words into the entry. He didn't say anything at all negative about the start. He said a lot of negative things about Garza's pitches.

The word "negative" pretty clearly refers to "how you think they'll do in the future" with prospects.

Garza is in the major leagues. He is no longer pitching for the experience. Maybe that is the problem here, you seem to have forgotten this was a major league game where what he does right now actually counts.

by TT on Jul 9, 2007 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fantastic, dude
great contributions to the conversation between limozeen and ultxmxpx.

thanks for explaining to me the difference between a "start" and "the pitches in a start." without you, i would have continued to talk about the two as one and the same. now, i'll never make the mistake of conflating the two again.

and thanks for explaining to me the difference between a "major leaguer" and a "prospect." again, i had accidentally believed that we weren't sure how Garza would do in the major leagues. now i realize that we're not concerned with that anymore. silly me! confusing a prospect with somebody pitching in the majors!

and he didn't say he had a bad game either? jesus -- do we really have to repost what he said a third time? at this point, it wouldn't just be "needing help in reading comprehension" -- we'd be talking about remedial reading 101. what he said is what limozeen responded to. how you're being this obstinate about what was a really straightforward conversation is befuddling me. but it's certainly not worth my time. if this is fun for you -- to play semantics and deny the obvious for posts on end -- knock yourself out. don't be surprised if no one else really enjoys your games, though.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Putting words in people's mouths
thanks for explaining to me the difference between a "start" and "the pitches in a start."

You really can't read can you?

and he didn't say he had a bad game either? jesus -- do we really have to repost what he said a third time?

No, he posted it once and it speaks for itself. Is there some reason you need to repeat it with your own interpretation added?

i had accidentally believed that we weren't sure how Garza would do in the major leagues.

We aren't. But we are all pretty clear about how he did in his last start. What we don't know is what that means for the future. Which was what he seemed to be addressing.

In the minor leagues you might consider a start negative just because Garza's fastball was flat. But in the major leagues the only real measure is success.

how you're being this obstinate

Whose being obstinate? You are insisting on reading into perfectly clear comments about Garza's pitches a negative commentary on a very successful start.

to play semantics

The only person arguing semantics is you. You want to put words in other people's mouths and then say its "semantics" when someone objects.

by TT on Jul 9, 2007 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

one last thing....
....just so you realize what you're arguing.

ultxmxpx never said anything, one way or another, about "the start" -- he just mentioned the pitches would lead to future bad starts.

limozeen said "how can you take something negative away from that start?" (this is, of course, the paraphrase of what limozeen said, because the actual QUOTE was "As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative, Garza basically did everything right.")

you're telling limozeen that he didn't mean "the start." the rest of us don't have a problem with the phrase "doing everything right during a start" as filling in for "pitches looking good, etc." you do. so you're lecturing on how "a start" is different from "pitches" as if that helped explain why ultxmxpx and limozeen had a difference of opinion.

ultmxpx and limozeen DID have a difference of opinion. about the pitches Garze threw. you're the only person who misread that. next time, say, "I'm confused" rather than insisting that everyone else stick to your dictatorial definitions when having a simple conversation.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reading comprehension
ultxmxpx never said anything, one way or another, about "the start"

Exactly, dipstick. Why don't you try reading for change.

limozeen: "As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative"

TT: "I don't think anyone is trying to turn his last start into a negative."

limozeen: That's just me though.

TT: Yep. Its just you. He was evaluating what he saw of Garza's stuff, not his last outing.

this is, of course, the paraphrase of what limozeen said

No, its not. Its a different statement entirely. But you really can't let people talk for themselves can you?

by TT on Jul 9, 2007 7:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ah!
so you've finally put down a tractable hypothesis!

that what I said limozeen was talking about (Garza's start suggesting he wouldn't be successful in the future) and what you claim he's talking about are different.

one problem, my friend -- limozeen already agreed with me about what he was saying. and, if he isn't as repulsed by you as I am, I'm sure he'll kindly reconfirm that he was NOT using the word "start" in your strict (and, may I add, ridiculous) sense of the word.

since limozeen WAS talking about pitches and some of us who are a little better at reading were able to figure out that he MEANT the pitches, it's really only you having a problem here, is it not? you want to talk about what interests YOU -- that "the start" was successful. don't mind the rest of us if we don't care, or at least not when you insert that commentary as if it were a correction of what others were talking about.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dipsticks
limozeen already agreed with me about what he was saying

Who cares?

by TT on Jul 9, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be clear.
I really am trying to figure out why you think you and limozene agreeing on what ultxmxpx meant matters. Why would anyone care?

The fact is that Garza had a very good start, whether his fastball was flat or not, and no one said anything to the contrary. You two insisted that ultxmxpx did.

 

by TT on Jul 9, 2007 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a little more reading comp
limozeen agrees with me on what limozeen meant -- that he was talking about pitches/projection for the future.

we both agree on what ultxmxpx meant -- that he was talking about pitches/projection for the future.

you are quite literally the only person who wanted to turn the fact that limozeen used the word "game" into meaning "the result of that individual game." it's not what ultxmxpx was talking about, and it's been confirmed by limozeen that it's not what limozeen was talking about.

so what on god's green earth are you talking about?

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 10, 2007 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So it goes with TT
Just walk away, bleed. I've been in your position one too many times. There's only one cure: stop responding to him. He's just trolling for kicks. Don't give him the satisfaction.
cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jul 9, 2007 7:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

alright
I didn't see his start, I only looked at the boxscore and the break, ect. data accompanying it. He got swinging strikes on his changeup and slider, but not his curveball. I just wanted to discretely see what people thought that actually watched it (whether it was B.S. or not people contributed) and I can see limozeen disagreed. I've seen a couple of his minor league starts on milb.tv. I can very well be wrong, but the fastball didn't seem to have much movement. I just don't think he'll be able to beat the good ML hitters with it. In his  AAA start it got hit. Just being fast isn't enough, as Seth McClung knows. With his secondary stuff, he'll keep them off balanced though. I still think he'll have a decent starting career at worst, but he'll never be an ace. Again, I could be wrong.

by ultxmxpx on Jul 10, 2007 12:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good
Finally, the substance comes out. I was waiting...

Garza has two fastballs, as most pitchers do. His four seamer has little movement, but he throws it hard (95-97). If he locates it and uses it mostly to get strikeouts above the letters, it doesn't need to have movement.

The two seamer runs a little down and in to right handers. But the more effective aspect of it is he comes over the top and creates a downward plane with it, similar to Joe Nathan. At 92-94, it's a hard sinker. I would like to see him take a little off of it once in a while when he really needs a ground ball. Sinkers thrown too hard straighten out. He needs to work on this, but as long as he locates with it on the corners and down, he'll be fine.

The curve (79) is his best pitch, IMHO, but his arm speed is noticeably slower than the other pitches he throws, so good hitters lay off of it. That's also something to work on, but if he uses it right, it can be a good pitch to get over in counts when they don't expect it. And if they try to hit it, they will miss. It's just not hittable.

The slider is hard (89). And he throws it at the same arm speed as the fastball, so it's an effective pitch for him, especially since it gives the hitter a different look at the breaking ball, which will make the curve more effective.

The change (82) is the pitch that he's worked on the most in the last three months, and it's coming around. He has good control of it, but, like a lot of young pitchers, he hates getting hit off of it. He uses it as a show-me pitch more than the strike-out pitch it could be. As he goes along, he'll use it more, especially against the better hitters who can catch up to his fastball.

Overall, I would say he has a very good repertoire for a rookie. He has stuff to work on. But if he locates with the stuff he has, he can dominate. I wouldn't say movement is the deal breaker, 'cause when he locates with his pitches and mixes them up, he's effective.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jul 10, 2007 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

now
This may just be me as well, but I don't recall any sliders being thrown in this game.  In fact, I wondered if he had scrapped it and was kind of alarmed because it's a good pitch.

by limozeen on Jul 10, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

slider/curve/etc.
are not always reported properly on websites that have logs.

I like using CBS to watch games in progress because they show velo, but sometimes you'll see 90 curve or such. I think they have the velo correct just the pitch recognition isn't.

It's probably an intern like A.Foster typing that in and we know he's clueless. I'm joking Adam. But seriously it seems like the person entering the data isn't that knowledgeable.

by pedrophile on Jul 10, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TT
Don't worry everyone.  We're just the stupid ones that forgot that one intrinsic property of the universe is that at the MLB level, "start" only means the results of the start, not the things that the pitcher did to get those results.

by limozeen on Jul 10, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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