Why are so many people here down on Garza?
He's still just 23 years old, and he pitched great against the White Sox last night. But from reading through past diaries, it seems like a large percentage of the people here have soured on him.
What gives?
No, he's not going to be the next Liriano, but I see no reason to believe that he can't be an outstanding major league pitcher in his own right.
0 recs |
43 comments
Comments
I still like him
by Bravesin07 on Jul 7, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
everyone went crazy on him last year
Either that or they traded him for Guthrie, Marcum, and Josh Hamilton.
by pedrophile on Jul 7, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
duh
Oh look, another shiny prospect to hype has appeared. We will love him until he gets rocked in the majors then he sucks.
by Team Moneyball on Jul 7, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah not a lot of people dominant
by Bravesin07 on Jul 7, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
um
by jpahk on Jul 7, 2007 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maddux and Glavine,
by JT12340 on Jul 8, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my concern
by phuturephillies on Jul 7, 2007 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
by SenorGato88 on Jul 7, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His curve is not average
His slider is above average ans his change is average. So he does have room for improvement there. But lots of guys get by with two good to excellent pitches. Bert Blyleven, for example.
by cmathewson on Jul 8, 2007 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of reaons...
It seems once a player has 50 big league innings or 100 AB under his belt, we get bored with him.
There are so many talented young players in that category who have yet to reach their ceilings, who might be future stars, and who easily get ignored or forgotten, that I think it would be interesting to do a top non-prospects list. I'm thinking of guys like Franklin Gutierrez. But I'm not sure what the cutoff would be for eligibility.
Another is that the scouting on Garza was never quite as good as the numbers suggested, so some overrated him a bit last year. He's got a good overall repertoire though, and will likely be at least a solid #3 type.
This happens all the time here, a guy having a good season numbers wise at lower levels gets over rated, a guy moves up a level and struggles a bit, and he's under rated. There's a bit too much worry about what a player has done in the last couple of months, and not enough looking at the big picture including scouting and reasonable expectations as far as experience and level.
Last year, guys like Saltalamacchia, Pie, and even Upton were under rated by some, this year they're stars again. I would say that Joba Chamberlain and Yovani Gallardo are currently a bit over rated.
by acerimusdux on Jul 7, 2007 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I get Joba
by PujolsJunkie on Jul 7, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only a bit...
Mostly I see him as a polished guy with good command and a good repertoire, but still have some doubts about his ceiling.
The guys at brewerfan.net, by the way, who know the Brewers prospects better than most anyone, currently have Gallardo as the #2 guy in that system. Now that's not a big knock against him, as Braun is in the top 5 here as well. But I personally would have him below at least Bailey and Andrew Miller.
Mostly I see his ceiling as somewhat similar to Garza, good, but not really ace potential. Really just an example what I mean by guys moving around too much on short term numbers, going almost from nowhere a year ago, to #3, and if he were still eligible for another list 6 months or a year later (looks like he won't be), I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall back to around 20.
by acerimusdux on Jul 7, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Takes more than stuff to be an ace...
Dude is a much better pitcher than I thought he was.
by SenorGato88 on Jul 8, 2007 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please take that last line out...
Alot of alcohol + 3 hours of sleep = Bad poster.
by SenorGato88 on Jul 8, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a Twins Fan......
There were so many instances last night where it seemed that ChiSox hitters were surprised with the movement that Garza had down in the zone. (Then again there were a lot of things the ChiSox were frustrated about yesterday)
by Terry Ryan Jr on Jul 7, 2007 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm not down on garza
garza's a good pitching prospect. he's better than boof bonser and scott baker were. i just don't see why he merits inclusion with the elite pitching prospects. maybe it's because i haven't seen him pitch and am a little skeptical of the claims that his stuff took a huge step forward last year; if it's still there, why did he struggle this year in AAA?
by jpahk on Jul 7, 2007 8:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well
Very similar repertoire to Clay Buchholz actually. A bit tighter of a curve and a bit less feel for the changeup (which he flashed about 10 times last night and was actually very devastating).
by limozeen on Jul 7, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
by ultxmxpx on Jul 8, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question mark
His curve induced lots of poor swings, but more importantly, he kept it down and the most notable hit on it was on an AJ Pierzysnki defensive slap with two strikes that turned into a low popup behind the third baseman. He got two of six strikeouts on the curve, one swinging and one looking.
His changeup was much-improved and he flashed the ability to throw it in the strike zone and completely baffle hitters. He threw it in several unexpected counts. It has great movement to the arm side and comes in about 10 MPH slower than the FB.
But the worst observation of your post is the fouling off thing. The only batter who did this was notorious fouler AJ Pierzynski, and the pitches he fouled off were very, very good low curveballs.
As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative, Garza basically did everything right. He kept the fastball down early in the count, left the curve below the bats of the hitters, effectively used his changeup in various counts, and blew batters away with the high fastball when necessary.
by limozeen on Jul 8, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Impatience
I don't think anyone is trying to turn his last start into a negative. Given last falls performance, it is clearly a definite improvement. There are really two related questions, can he repeat it and if he can will major league hitters catch up to him and get better results. In any case, we are likely to find out since he pitched well enough to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation.
I think a lot of people here are impatient. When guys are doing well in the minors, they are impatient for them to be in the major leagues. And when they get to the major leagues they are impatient if they struggle. Garza suffered a bit from that phenomena. He still does.
Garza has the potential to be a number one starter. But there are a fair number of guys who have that potential who are still never successful as major league starters. Garza still has a ways to go to be mentioned in the same breath as Glavine or Maddux. He could just as easily be the next Willie Banks or Pat Mahomes.
by TT on Jul 8, 2007 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm
by limozeen on Jul 8, 2007 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right
Yep. Its just you. He was evaluating what he saw of Garza's stuff, not his last outing.
by TT on Jul 8, 2007 11:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not just him
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading comprehension
I'd say neither of you can read very well then. Or you forgot that the goal in baseball is to win games. Its pretty clear that what he was saying was that despite having a good game, Garza's stuff is not all that good. I doubt he is right, but it doesn't turn his last start into a negative to say his next start will be.
by TT on Jul 9, 2007 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Charity
In particular, if this is what he meant, he's a fool:
Garza's stuff is not all that good
I don't know how anyone can say something like that if he knew anything about Garza. He has the best stuff of any Twins starter. He has better stuff than most prospects or recent rookies--just a notch below Verlander. Anyone who's seen him pitch would conclude that his stuff is plenty good to be a top starter in the league.
Garza struggles with command, as most power pitchers do in the first couple of years of breaking into the big leagues. Stuff is not his problem.
So perhaps they were trying to read him so that he didn't sound like a fool. Something like, "Let's not get too excited about one start. Let's see consistent command for a month before we determine how good he is." That's a sensible position.
by cmathewson on Jul 9, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmmm
- He never said he had a good game. All he said were negatives. Agreed, the "good game" was implied by the fact he DIDN'T do anything but bash Garza and suggest he got lucky, but you're putting words into the entry that aren't even there to make it seem like it was more positive.
- Neither limozeen (just speculating) nor I thought that the fact Garza won meant he necessarily had a good game. The word "negative" pretty clearly refers to "how you think they'll do in the future" with prospects. And here we are, on a prospect site.
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
by limozeen on Jul 9, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no problem....
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Major Leagues
He never said he had bad game either.
you're putting words into the entry that aren't even there
You are the one putting words into the entry. He didn't say anything at all negative about the start. He said a lot of negative things about Garza's pitches.
The word "negative" pretty clearly refers to "how you think they'll do in the future" with prospects.
Garza is in the major leagues. He is no longer pitching for the experience. Maybe that is the problem here, you seem to have forgotten this was a major league game where what he does right now actually counts.
by TT on Jul 9, 2007 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fantastic, dude
thanks for explaining to me the difference between a "start" and "the pitches in a start." without you, i would have continued to talk about the two as one and the same. now, i'll never make the mistake of conflating the two again.
and thanks for explaining to me the difference between a "major leaguer" and a "prospect." again, i had accidentally believed that we weren't sure how Garza would do in the major leagues. now i realize that we're not concerned with that anymore. silly me! confusing a prospect with somebody pitching in the majors!
and he didn't say he had a bad game either? jesus -- do we really have to repost what he said a third time? at this point, it wouldn't just be "needing help in reading comprehension" -- we'd be talking about remedial reading 101. what he said is what limozeen responded to. how you're being this obstinate about what was a really straightforward conversation is befuddling me. but it's certainly not worth my time. if this is fun for you -- to play semantics and deny the obvious for posts on end -- knock yourself out. don't be surprised if no one else really enjoys your games, though.
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Putting words in people's mouths
You really can't read can you?
and he didn't say he had a bad game either? jesus -- do we really have to repost what he said a third time?
No, he posted it once and it speaks for itself. Is there some reason you need to repeat it with your own interpretation added?
i had accidentally believed that we weren't sure how Garza would do in the major leagues.
We aren't. But we are all pretty clear about how he did in his last start. What we don't know is what that means for the future. Which was what he seemed to be addressing.
In the minor leagues you might consider a start negative just because Garza's fastball was flat. But in the major leagues the only real measure is success.
how you're being this obstinate
Whose being obstinate? You are insisting on reading into perfectly clear comments about Garza's pitches a negative commentary on a very successful start.
to play semantics
The only person arguing semantics is you. You want to put words in other people's mouths and then say its "semantics" when someone objects.
by TT on Jul 9, 2007 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one last thing....
ultxmxpx never said anything, one way or another, about "the start" -- he just mentioned the pitches would lead to future bad starts.
limozeen said "how can you take something negative away from that start?" (this is, of course, the paraphrase of what limozeen said, because the actual QUOTE was "As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative, Garza basically did everything right.")
you're telling limozeen that he didn't mean "the start." the rest of us don't have a problem with the phrase "doing everything right during a start" as filling in for "pitches looking good, etc." you do. so you're lecturing on how "a start" is different from "pitches" as if that helped explain why ultxmxpx and limozeen had a difference of opinion.
ultmxpx and limozeen DID have a difference of opinion. about the pitches Garze threw. you're the only person who misread that. next time, say, "I'm confused" rather than insisting that everyone else stick to your dictatorial definitions when having a simple conversation.
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading comprehension
Exactly, dipstick. Why don't you try reading for change.
limozeen: "As much as you'd like to turn this start into a negative"
TT: "I don't think anyone is trying to turn his last start into a negative."
limozeen: That's just me though.
TT: Yep. Its just you. He was evaluating what he saw of Garza's stuff, not his last outing.
this is, of course, the paraphrase of what limozeen said
No, its not. Its a different statement entirely. But you really can't let people talk for themselves can you?
by TT on Jul 9, 2007 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ah!
that what I said limozeen was talking about (Garza's start suggesting he wouldn't be successful in the future) and what you claim he's talking about are different.
one problem, my friend -- limozeen already agreed with me about what he was saying. and, if he isn't as repulsed by you as I am, I'm sure he'll kindly reconfirm that he was NOT using the word "start" in your strict (and, may I add, ridiculous) sense of the word.
since limozeen WAS talking about pitches and some of us who are a little better at reading were able to figure out that he MEANT the pitches, it's really only you having a problem here, is it not? you want to talk about what interests YOU -- that "the start" was successful. don't mind the rest of us if we don't care, or at least not when you insert that commentary as if it were a correction of what others were talking about.
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 9, 2007 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dipsticks
Who cares?
by TT on Jul 9, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be clear.
The fact is that Garza had a very good start, whether his fastball was flat or not, and no one said anything to the contrary. You two insisted that ultxmxpx did.
by TT on Jul 9, 2007 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a little more reading comp
we both agree on what ultxmxpx meant -- that he was talking about pitches/projection for the future.
you are quite literally the only person who wanted to turn the fact that limozeen used the word "game" into meaning "the result of that individual game." it's not what ultxmxpx was talking about, and it's been confirmed by limozeen that it's not what limozeen was talking about.
so what on god's green earth are you talking about?
by bleedjaxblue on Jul 10, 2007 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So it goes with TT
by cmathewson on Jul 9, 2007 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
alright
by ultxmxpx on Jul 10, 2007 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good
Garza has two fastballs, as most pitchers do. His four seamer has little movement, but he throws it hard (95-97). If he locates it and uses it mostly to get strikeouts above the letters, it doesn't need to have movement.
The two seamer runs a little down and in to right handers. But the more effective aspect of it is he comes over the top and creates a downward plane with it, similar to Joe Nathan. At 92-94, it's a hard sinker. I would like to see him take a little off of it once in a while when he really needs a ground ball. Sinkers thrown too hard straighten out. He needs to work on this, but as long as he locates with it on the corners and down, he'll be fine.
The curve (79) is his best pitch, IMHO, but his arm speed is noticeably slower than the other pitches he throws, so good hitters lay off of it. That's also something to work on, but if he uses it right, it can be a good pitch to get over in counts when they don't expect it. And if they try to hit it, they will miss. It's just not hittable.
The slider is hard (89). And he throws it at the same arm speed as the fastball, so it's an effective pitch for him, especially since it gives the hitter a different look at the breaking ball, which will make the curve more effective.
The change (82) is the pitch that he's worked on the most in the last three months, and it's coming around. He has good control of it, but, like a lot of young pitchers, he hates getting hit off of it. He uses it as a show-me pitch more than the strike-out pitch it could be. As he goes along, he'll use it more, especially against the better hitters who can catch up to his fastball.
Overall, I would say he has a very good repertoire for a rookie. He has stuff to work on. But if he locates with the stuff he has, he can dominate. I wouldn't say movement is the deal breaker, 'cause when he locates with his pitches and mixes them up, he's effective.
by cmathewson on Jul 10, 2007 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
now
by limozeen on Jul 10, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
slider/curve/etc.
I like using CBS to watch games in progress because they show velo, but sometimes you'll see 90 curve or such. I think they have the velo correct just the pitch recognition isn't.
It's probably an intern like A.Foster typing that in and we know he's clueless. I'm joking Adam. But seriously it seems like the person entering the data isn't that knowledgeable.
by pedrophile on Jul 10, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TT
by limozeen on Jul 10, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 










