Accountability

by Ur on Jul 6, 2007 9:48 AM EDT

Day after day we argue about prospects, who's hot, who's not, who's over-rated or under-rated, but it seems to me that nobody is held accountable for the predictions they make or has their "expertise" questioned.

Now granted, people have favorites (any Yankee pitching prospect) or an unusal hatred towards particular players (Francouer, Milledge...etc), but over and over again I see "experts" making statements about players, which in historical context look simply absurd.

And yet, they are never called on it.

I'll use BP for example -- Nate Silver wrote this about the Josh Beckett trade:

"Hanley Ramirez, in my eyes and in the eyes of a lot of my colleagues at BP, has always been more a product of the Red Sox Nation hype machine than a legitimate star in the making."

Whoops.

Rob Neyer claimed at the end of the 2004 season that Jose Reyes was one of the worst players in baseball and needed another season at AAA.

Double-Whoops.

BP treated BA's ranking of Jeff Francouer over Andy Marte when they were both in the Braves system to be the height of sheer silliness.

Bet the Indians would disagree.

Yet when more "scout-orientated" sites like BA touted guys like Hanley or Reyes or Francouer, they were mocked and ridiculed by the more 'sabermetric-enlightened' sites and message boards. Where's the, "sorry, our bad?"

And this just doesn't happen with minor leaguers -- at the time BP called the Tigers signing of Magglio Ordonez one of the worst contracts of all-time.

All he's going to do is win the AL MVP this year.

I don't mean to pick on BP, but their book, which everybody gobbles up with glee every year has all their success stories (and there are several) pasted on the front cover, yet nobody seems to remind people of the times they were wildly, wildly wrong.

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Neyer on Reyes

Reyes in 2005:

.273/.300/.386

Neyer's statement that he needed another year of development was 100% accurate.

I don't really know what world you are living in, but I most people I know take everything BP writes about prospects with a HUGE grain of salt.

by aCone419 on Jul 6, 2007 9:46 AM EDT reply actions

Neyer

is a great writer and one of the only few i like at ESPN, he's very humble and will admit when he was wrong without hesitation...although, maybe this example isnt a great one

by nyybaseball99 on Jul 6, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Neyer?!

Humble? Are we talking about the same Rob Neyer?

by Bowser on Jul 6, 2007 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

do you read his chats?

by nyybaseball99 on Jul 6, 2007 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I have to agree with this

At the time Reyes clearly wasn't ready.

That was totally the right call.

by Montreal97 on Jul 6, 2007 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

and his blog - he hardly comes off humble to me.

by Bowser on Jul 6, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

response

this is from his last chat:

Scott (FL): You have stated in the past with no uncertainty that Roger Clemens will finish with more wins than Greg Maddux. Only ten wins back and Maddux seems to have a lot more left in the tank, do you care to reconsider at this point?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: I've never stated anything in my life with no uncertainty. I just try to come across that way because it's expected of me. Anyway, yes there now seems to be a decent chance that Maddux will win more than Clemens, in part because he's available in April and May. That's a fine how-do-you-do, don't you think?

by nyybaseball99 on Jul 6, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

If I am not mistaken, Reyes led the league in outs made that year. He probably did need another year of AAA.

by count sutton on Jul 6, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Ironic

I doubt Rob actually read this thread, but he made a pretty ironic post during his Rob and Rany today:

Touche. What's more frightening than your regular usage of studly is your ability to go back more than three years while counting. Don't you know blogs are supposed to disappear into the ether as quickly as they're read? That way there's no accountability.

http://www.robneyer.com/robrany.html

by twill on Jul 6, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Kevin Goldstein

He's admitted he's half/half between stats/scouting.

How about Aaron Gleeman from Rotoworld in 2005 ranking Zach Duke the 19th best pitcher in baseball for long-term value.

by omambiyick on Jul 6, 2007 9:54 AM EDT reply actions

Exactly

I was just thinking: "Why did BP hire Goldstein?" Maybe because they realized they needed someone who was more than just stat-focused when evaluating prospects.

Goldstein has done wonders in helping BP beef up it's minor league analysis.

by guru4u on Jul 6, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

good points about hatred for Milledge

He struckout late in a game last night and started bitching at the pitcher. This guy is starting to make me think he is Carl Everett or Milton Bradley the 2nd.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 6, 2007 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

actually

there was a running joke about how all their coverboys (players on the cover when they used to do that) would then flop - Josh Phelps, Richard Hildago, Adrian Beltre, and to a lesser extent Adam Dunn...

all experts miss...

My favorite one from Jim Callis at BA was when in a chat he stated that people were overrating Travis Hafner's stats in the minors when he was with Texas and that he wasn't that good a hitter. I haven't seen him do a "sorry, my bad" there either.

I also think your description of "mocked and ridiculed" is overstated... The only thing numbers oriented analysts mock are those who never look at the numbers at all for guidance.

by SLK on Jul 6, 2007 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

BP actually does provide accountability

They have tracked the rankings they've used for prospects against what BA has used. Also, they they've tracked the avg. for their predictions with regards to ERA/OBP/Slugging, in regards to other prediction systems, so I'm really not certain what you're talking about.

Are you saying that each and every statement a writer makes should at one point in the future be addressed by said writer for whether it turned out to be accurate or not?

by andwoo on Jul 6, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

Yes

BP does track their evaluations, and use it to tweak their models (such as PECOTA). I find the PECOTA model to be very adaptive.

I do think it's prefereable for "experts" to do this, too.

by siddfynch on Jul 6, 2007 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Precisly

Great observation.

They're more concerned with the process. Knowing that if the process is sound that the system will be right more than wrong. So when evidence that the process is wrong comes up, they change the process.

Thing is, except for Hanely, who might be an exception, not a rule, I'm not sure any of those statements reflect a poor process or methodology. All of those statements were sound, and still are.

You don't give a guy coming off injury a long-term deal. Doesn't matter how well he's playing now. That's a dumb move.

Reyes certainly needed more time in AAA. The Mets are lucky he was able to learn in the majors. Most players don't.

by Montreal97 on Jul 6, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Accountability

So, should we take the folks at BP out back and flog them for thier predictions?

This seems a little naive at best. I mean really, do we expect BP to put their misses on the cover. That would be stupid. They are trying to sell books after all.

As for your arguments, provide a little context.

Reyes was one of the worst players in the majors that year. Looked like Rey Ordonaz II. Not good.

Magglio Ordonez was a bust his first year in Detriot, merely good his second, and in his third he could have yes best year EVER. But at the time they signed him it wasn't a good deal. And it probably still isn't. Imagine how much better the signing would look now if they didn't over pay for him.

Now I'm a Red Sox fan. I loved Hanely in A ball, but after his second poor stint in AA, pitchers park or not, I didn't like his chances of being an All-Star. I decent regular with defense, probably, but I don't think you can look at what he was in Portland and project this. And I saw him play a few times. And you gloss over the fact that some people at BP loved Ramirez, as Silver states.

Francuer vs. Marte. I'd still take Marte. Players a harder position and is a better hitter. Even if the Indians have him stuck in AAA for some reason.

This isn't to say that the BP people haven't been wrong. I just don't see that this constitutes evidence of being wildly wrong. I think all those statements were correct at the time. The only one right out of the blue is Hanely. The Magglio signing, no matter how good he plays, is still stupid.

by Montreal97 on Jul 6, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions

Fun?

Hey guys! Isn't this a game and isn't discussing it supposed to be fun?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jul 6, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

i tend to agree

not that BP should be infallible. i think their prospecting is 2nd rate but, at the same time, they've added good insight into the overall picture.

for example, their Pecota/Nate Silver was the only one calling Dustin Pedroia as a first rank prospect. Their own Kevin Goldstein and all the scouting-oriented sites were dead wrong on him (Keith Law, formerly of BP, was also dead wrong on Pedroia -- he absolutely hated him).

so you win some you lose some, I certainly trust, by far, BA and Sickels well over BP, but it's a balance.

in terms of agreeing with the original post, though, I do think that BP's smart aleck style rankles. BA and Sickels don't spend nearly as much ink ridiculing rival methods and so I think that makes BPs mistakes stick out more. If you're going to stick out your chest, it'd probably be wise to more readily admit to mistakes. it's just a game and it's just conversation, and I could do without BP's infantile insults.

by scooter on Jul 6, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions

+1

The fervor with which BP ridicules others and pats themselves on the back for even the slightest thing they get right does rankle me. If you're going to try so hard to praise yourself when you're wrong the public will rightfully take glee.

sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Jul 6, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

I'm a BP premium subscriber. I agree with the both scooter and natsfan. It's not the content that people have a problem with, it's the style (or lack thereof) by the writers.

The arrogance they exhibit is what turns people off, I believe. I still enjoy Chris Kahrl, and I'm glad they've added Jon Perrotto, but mainly I use the site for raw statistics.

Joe Sheehan, Nate Silver, and Will Carroll are three writers I can no longer stomach - I read none of their columns. It's a real shame because BP used to be the "outsiders," but that seems like centuries ago.

by doug frobel on Jul 6, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Magglio's contract

Um, I am a Tigers fan and that was one of the worst contracts of all time.

Just because they got lucky and he happened to have the season of his career this year with the Tigers doesn't mean it was a good signing. There was probably a 1 in 8 chance something like this happened. The risk/reward wasn't there. Just because something ends up working out okay (still questionable with Magglio's deal) doesn't mean it was a good move to make in the first place.

Before this year the contract had to still be seen as an absolutely terrible deal. He had sat out most of his first year with the team and then last year posted an OPS in the 820s. Not bad by any means, but not worth 15+ million a year.

Mike Zagurski Fan Club

by Grrranderson on Jul 6, 2007 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

Bad contract

I agree. Yes, there was a chance that Ordonez would put together a few good years but you don't give a player coming off a few injury plagued seasons a contract like that. Yes, the Tigers have gotten lucky but it really WAS luck. That would be like giving Mike Hampton a 5 year contract after this season. Yes, he could win 20 games but it's a stupid thing to do.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jul 6, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

Wasn't there a clause that if he spent long enough on the DL with a recurrence of one of his old injuries, the Tigers could get out of the deal after one year? That said, not exactly the wisest move on their part.

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Jul 6, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

maggs

Its kind of like the Bart Colon contract. Basically he was useless 3 out of 4 years, but then he won a cy young. Does that mean it was a good contract? No.

If Maggs wins the AL MVP this year, thats great, but his first two years weren't impressive and who knows what his last two years will look like. He could go back to .820 OPS and then he's way overpaid again.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Jul 6, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

good contract

Detroit couldn't get players to come to Motown. They overpaid on Pudge and Ordonez in order to transition for the young guys coming up as well as to start the team winning so they could get other free agents to come there.

It's a similar risk KC took with Meche and KC will have to take a few more unless they want to wait 5-10 years for their rebuilding.

by pedrophile on Jul 6, 2007 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

You really can't overlook this. Of course Detroit overpaid, but they're in a pretty good situation right now thanks in no small part to overpaying for Magglio and Pudge.

by limozeen on Jul 7, 2007 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions

accountability rules

next step: digging through all the comments on this blog from two years ago and doing a poster-by-poster perspicacity audit. it'll be fun!

by wily mo on Jul 6, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions

+1

we are all guilty of not being accountable and accountability is really what is lacking from everyone who talks about sports. Think about ESPN. There is no one out there large enough to call them out on how god awful their baseball coverage is. It is why Joe Morgan has a job instead of buying tickets to the games himself. Its how Pat Gillick gets away with signing Greg Colbrunn after being offered arbitration and still has a job.

Thats what you have to love about John, accountability is his middle name. Every year he reviews his top 20 of every team and he does nostalgia reviews of what he did 10 years ago. John, here is to you for not being inflated by some ego that seems to plague almost all of your contemporaries.

by Trenchtown on Jul 6, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

i think BA and BP and similiar sites are accountable enough. They are trying to sell books and subscriptions so they obviously try to sound like they are right about most things. I think John just spoils us by being right most of the time and then being honest about when he wasn't. Don't forget that prospects are largely a guessing game.

by kaisertown on Jul 6, 2007 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember the Alex Gordon lynch mob...

Is this source even reliable? I mean any of us could sit here and pick names from a hat as to who's the top prospects in baseball but, I mean he has Gordon ranked as the....

" ... 36. Gordon, Alex ... will likely be this year's player who is perceived as being snubbed because we've ranked him at "only" #36 among several thousand prospects. As good as he was at Double-A Wichita, he's a little older than you might expect (already turning twenty-three in February). Still, he projects as a good power hitter with some speed but the average simply doesn't translate to the majors, which is why he's a little lower here than most other sources will list him."

I don't know where or who this guy is but, is he even in the same relm as the rest of us?

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/1/29/14290/6261

by tpeichel34 on Jul 6, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Baseball Notebook

Has had something in which David Luciani examines which picks of his were good and which were flops. Considering how incendiary his list is, one may find it surprising how many succeses he has there compared to BA and BP. He at least admits to being wrong sometimes, although I'm not sure as to what is the current status of the site.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jul 6, 2007 5:20 PM EDT reply actions