how we doing critique

by scooter on Jul 3, 2007 12:53 PM EDT Comment 52 comments

here's our top 30?

who is your most overrated and underrated guy on our collective wisdom/foolishness?

1# Justin Upton
2# Phil Hughes
3# Yovani Gallardo
4# Billy Butler
5# Ryan Braun
6# Homer Bailey
7# Adam Jones
8# Evan Longoria
9# Jay Bruce
10# Andrew Miller
#11 Clay Buchholz
12# Jarrod Saltalamacchia
13# Clayton Kershaw
14# Cameron Maybin
15# Fernando Martinez
16# Colby Rasmus
17# Brandon Wood
18# Adam Miller
19# Reid Brignac
20# Matt Garza
21# Felix Pie
22# Joey Votto
23# Daric Barton
24# James Loney
#25 Luke Hochevar
26# Joba Chamberlain
27# Andrew McCutchen
28# Jose Tabata
29# Eric Hurley
30# Wade Davis

0 recs | Comment 52 comments

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Comments

to me

overranked: Billy Butler...the arguments that were made at that time. To me he's closer to Josh Willingham than Manny Ramirez.

underranked: hmmmm, i don't have any major guys, but maybe Felix Pie -- both a sure thing and a high ceiling guy, probably not sexy because he's been around for so long.

by scooter on Jul 3, 2007 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Board

This board never fails to amaze me.

by brewerfan84 on Jul 3, 2007 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are you referring to?

A comment like that deserves an explanation.

by guru4u on Jul 3, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he had a huge night tonight

6 rbis, 3 hits, 4 runs scored, he is pretty great

"KaoticKlown" on Elijah Dukes : Finally, MLB has the answer to Shawn Kemp it has been searching for since the mid-90s.

by realityconquest on Jul 4, 2007 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO

over : Jay Bruce (still way too many Ks)
under : Colby Rasmus (has all 5 tools and very productive)

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jul 3, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IMO

Overrated: Hochevar
Underrated: Adam Miller

by HectorLuna on Jul 3, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if anything

Hochevar is underrated just 1 pick ahead of Joba

by playingwithfire on Jul 3, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar

Strikes a lot of guys out, but gives up a ton of hits and runs. I'll take Joba for now.

by HectorLuna on Jul 3, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ever heard of

BABIP and bad defense on that Wichita team?

by playingwithfire on Jul 3, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

scratch that

HORRENDOUS DEFENSE

by playingwithfire on Jul 3, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and

Joba is fat and can't stay healthy and doesn't have the quantity (quality?) of pitches that Hochy does.

by doublestix on Jul 3, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I have a few guys in mind but I'll just go with my top choices.

Overrated: Reid Brignac
Underrated: Wade Davis

by mrkupe on Jul 3, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mine

underrated: would probably go with Travis Snider, who I think should be in the teens, but, of people actually on the list, probably Hurley

overrated: Billy Butler, Clay Buchholz, Reid Brignac

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 3, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

actually....

....missed Homer Bailey because he's SO overrated.....make him my number 1 overrated

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 3, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yikes,

I wasn't paying attention to the talks going around during the voting, but I have to ask what it is that makes Buchholz overrated to you? It can't be his numbers, and it can't be his scouting report. Well, it could be either, but I'm curious as to your reasons

by Jgaztambide on Jul 3, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a few reasons

none of them that direct, but just reasons why I would actually place money against him finishing with the 11th best career

if you're a Yankee, Red Sock, Dodger or Met pitching prospect and you put up a good K/BB, you become a top prospect. just as a general rule, i bet against these players, unless there's some very special attribute about them that would otherwise make me reconsider. some of these attributes include having King Felix-like ARL's or having a scouting report that includes literally off-the-charts stuff. Clay doesn't fit the former category. on the latter, obviously, the scouting reports sound awesome. but they don't scream "unreal." and, my guess is, they're somewhat exaggerrated, as most pitching prospects from these team's tend to be once the fanbase falls in love with one of these players. given that the hype around him has grown SO exponentially this season, this slightly confirms my belief that the scouting is biased by the results.
i tend to rank all pitchers lower than most people do, except extreme cases. to me, Buccholz doesn't stand that much of a better chance of being a success than 7 or 8 pitchers behind him, and way less of a chance than many of the hitters. i also don't care about pitching stats in the minors that much -- or at least as ordinally significant. though bad peripherals suggest that someone may not be a worthwhile prospect, I certainly don't believe a slightly higher K/BB in double-A has almost any significance in terms of separating two pitching prospects with similar arsenals.

looking back at it, I probably shouldn't have singled out Buchholz, since I think Kershaw may be even more overrated, and Hughes not much less. but, when I quickly glanced over the list, it hit me that I'd have him in the low 20s, not at 11, so I put him down.

anyway, just my take on Buchholz. i realize it's not giving you the kind of answers you're looking for (e.g., "his curveball hangs" or "I don't like the groundball rate"), but it's how I'd assess the situation.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 3, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

I may not agree with your reasoning as to why you believe Buchholz is overrated (and I don't... I think he's a hell of a prospect and deserves to be ranked as one of the best in the minors), but at least there's definitely a process behind your thoughts there. As opposed to those who say "I hate the Red Sox, so they're all overrated."

"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Jul 3, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

If anything, I think Buchholz is underrated here.

by mrkupe on Jul 3, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO

Overrated: Bailey
Underrated: Brignac

by GregJP on Jul 3, 2007 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mine

overrated: Bruce
underrated: Brignac

by playingwithfire on Jul 3, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

overrated: Andrew Miller

underrated: Brandon Wood

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here are mine

Overrated: Bailey, Andrew Miller, Bruce

Underrated: Garza, Pie, Votto

by guru4u on Jul 3, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow. A lot of Bruce hating.

Over: Barton, Tabata
Under: Wood

by fridge on Jul 3, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bruce "Hating"

I think most of us that are listing Bruce as overrated are worried about the K rates. If he does not start making contact more consistently, he will wind up as a .260 hitter, rather than a .280 - .300 hitter that most expect him to be right now. I do not think anyone doubts the power.

by guru4u on Jul 3, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andrew Miller

I agree. I've watched this guy pitch a couple of times this year, and I just don't get why he's considered such a good prospect.

To me his stuff is just bleh, and Bailey's isn't much better.

Hughes and Lincecum are in a different league IMO.

Slightly off topic, but if I were starting a franchise I would take a guy like Dustin McGowan over Miller or Bailey any day of the week. Sorry if that makes me seem like a Jays homer.

by GregJP on Jul 3, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure I'd go THAT far...

to say Miller's stuff is "bleh". I think once he gets command of his 2 pitches, he'll be much better. I just personally think he's more of a future #2 starter than having the potential to be a true #1. And because of that, having him in the top 10 is overrating him.

by guru4u on Jul 3, 2007 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miller

To me he seems more like a #3.

I'm trying to think of a left handed comp. Maybe Randy Wolf or Cliff Lee, even though he probably throws harder than they do.

Performance wise,I think that's what he'll end up like.

by GregJP on Jul 3, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

IMO, very, very few guys have the potential to be a true #1. We got spoiled a couple of years ago with guys like Liriano and Verlander coming through the minors.

I think in an average year, you see like maybe 3-4 guys who have a realistic possibility of being a true No. 1 starter.

I'd go with Hughes, Buchholz, Gallardo. I could see solid cases being made for Kershaw and Davis, but I want to see a bit more development out of both before going that far.

by mrkupe on Jul 3, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

But if a pitcher does not have the potential to be a true #1, does he belong in the top 10? That's my whole argument. Those that crack the top 10 should really have that potential to be a true #1. That's why I think Miller has been overrated.

by guru4u on Jul 3, 2007 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAHAHAHHHAHAH

Mike Zagurski Fan Club

by Grrranderson on Jul 3, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Over: F-Mart, Joba

Under: Longoria (better than Butler to me), Pie

by jc3 on Jul 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Slightly Overrated: Upton, Butler, Kershaw, Martinez

Vastly (7+ Slots) Overrated: Bailey, Maybin, Hurley, Votto

Slightly Underrated: Wood, Garza, Loney, Saltalamacchia

Vastly Underrated: Brignac, Rowell (NR), Rasmus

by Metty5 on Jul 3, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

piling on

over: butler, bailey, f-mart, brignac
under: bruce, andrew miller, rasmus, pie

by jpahk on Jul 3, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Over/under

Overrated:Phil Hughes shouldn't be #2, considering the nature of his injury. Clay Buchholz, AKA this year's Matt Garza. He'll fall back to earth soon. He's good, but not top 11 good. Jose Tabata is also starting to seem overrated to me at this point.

Underrated: Bryan Anderson, who can't even get a tester. Brandon Wood, who's coming back around.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Jul 3, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hughes injury?

isn't it a hamstring injury? that doesn't seem that bad. seems to be a lot better than an injury to part of his arm especially his shoulder or something like that. i'd expect him to come back and be fine.

by DJ87 on Jul 4, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

over/under

Over:Tabata and Barton

Under: Brignac and Garza

by wildthang on Jul 3, 2007 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Overrated: Joba

He has had injury problems in the past, he has a frame that looks conducive to injuries/fatigue, and he has only made 11 healthy starts in the minors. Now I understand that those 11 starts have been very good, but I need more of a sample size before I would be willing to rank him this high. He hasn't yet proven that he can deal with adjustments/adversity and he hasn't yet proven that he can stay healthy.

In a recent BA Chat, Jim Callis stated that he would rather have Bucholtz and Bowden than Hughes and Joba. Considering how pretty much everyone thinks that Hughes is better than Bucholtz, this would imply that Callis would much rather have Bowden than Joba. When pressed for an explanation, here is Callis' response: "I'm just not sold that Joba is going to stay in one piece, which is why he fell in the draft. Hence I'll take the two Red Sox pitchers."

Underrated: I don't have a good answer here. If pressed I would probably say Balentien who I think should be in between Pie and Votto - I would rather have him than any player listed from 22-30.

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jul 3, 2007 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Underrated

Garza is a decent answer here too. He's had pretty decent success even though he has clearly been working on things. I'm not sure why people have soured on him but I think he still has #2 potential...

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jul 3, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mine

Overrated: Brignac hitting .242 with only 25 XBH and only 25 BB in 79 games and is not a great fielder.

Underrated: Astrubal Cabrera: Just Tearing up AA while having a 35-31 BB/K and playing very good defense. He should be up on the list.

Overrated: Hochevar: Don't like this guy much at all. While he's striking out guys he's also allowing a ton of hits and HR. I don't see him being much better than the pre-2006-2007 Gil Meche.

Underrated: Adam Miller: He would of been near the top 10 if he didn't hurt his finger. He was almost as impressive as Bailey was in AAA and has a much better changeup than Bailey does. He still reminds me of John Smoltz and is more of a sure thing compared to Bailey.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 3, 2007 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Most overrated: Butler by more than 20 spots
Most underrated: Longoria - top 3 for me (killing it in a tough pitchers' league).

by doug frobel on Jul 3, 2007 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how

can you rate butler so low?

"KaoticKlown" on Elijah Dukes : Finally, MLB has the answer to Shawn Kemp it has been searching for since the mid-90s.

by realityconquest on Jul 4, 2007 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This discussion took place on previous threads...

My belief is that top 20 prospect (hitters) should show more than hitting ability. To me, Butler has no position, so his bat has to be nothing short of spectacular. Maybe it will be, but I've seen can't miss bats like Chad Hermansen fail before. Now, in no way am I comparing Butler to Hermansen (he doesn't have the K issues), but I believe the highest level prospects must be able to field.

It all comes down to positional scarcity for me, and since anyone can DH, I don't feel Butler is nearly as special as his supporters do.

by doug frobel on Jul 4, 2007 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hm

Lets just say Homer is overrated, that means you think some other below him are better. Miller, Buckholz, or Kershaw? Or at least some pitchers that are on the top 30? I'd be interested in hearing a case for that, someone show me what I'm missing or overlooking.

by hybrid on Jul 3, 2007 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hm

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7944/gamelog;_ylt=AhmTIc8d_ujPaPQ2T_YnSRSFCLcF

by god allah star on Jul 3, 2007 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

over/under

Over: Homer Bailey, Andrew Miller

Under: Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen

by jlost284 on Jul 3, 2007 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

cameron maybin

downright stinks as a prospect. He's the Ian Stewart of 2007.

He gets all this "tools" hype when after two years he's done nothing with those tools.

He strikes out way too much, he has no power, he only hits ground balls.

Not only does he need to dramatically improve his contact rate, but he also needs to more-than-dramatically improve his line drive and gb/fb rates to be a valuable hitter.

He's fast and is a good fielder, but he's a downright atrocious hitter whose significant deficiencies is being hidden by his immense speed at this level. As he moves higher, his weaknesses will be more in the spotlight. I don't see him as being any more than a #7 hitter in the majors.

by Galt on Jul 3, 2007 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Even if

Even if everything you just said is true ... He can't be that overrated because then he's Ellsbury with a higher ceiling.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jul 4, 2007 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

compilation

bailey OOOOOOO
butler OOOO
andrew miller OOOOU
hochevar OO
buchholz OO
barton OO
tabata OO
f-mart OO
joba OO
bruce OOOU
hughes O
maybin OOU

votto OU
hurley OU
brignac OOOOUUUU (!)

davis U
mccutchen U
adam miller UU
longoria UU
rasmus UUU
wood UUU
garza UUU
pie UUUU

by jpahk on Jul 4, 2007 1:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

clarification

all i did was count mentions. i excluded anybody who's not actually on the poll yet. for metty, who was the only one to include "slightly" and "vastly" qualifiers on his over/underrated labels, i only counted the guys he listed as "vastly."

the conclusions to draw would seem to be that bailey is way overrated, butler is somewhat overrated, pie is somewhat underrated, and everybody vehemently disagrees about brignac.

by jpahk on Jul 4, 2007 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs