SS prospects

by Wheelhouse on Jul 12, 2007 11:01 AM EDT

there has certainly been a lot of changes in the top SS prospects compared to this time last year:

drew (promoted)

tulo (promoted)

aybar (promoted)

escobar (promoted)

pedoria (promoted)

wood (quasi position change)

the #1 SS prospect is now brignac, and that looks to be by a mile (if you consider wood a 3B).......

a few questions that will shape the rankings going forward:

triunfel is already making an impact in High A, but will he stay at SS or is 3B his future, as the mariners are heavily rumoured to be planning?

cabrera has been a hot riser this year, but is his current production sustainable and is he in for a position switch with peralta/barfield blocking his path?

andrus has struggled with the bat thus far, but will he finally begin to turn those raw skills into offensive production and show some power?

with very little depth currently at the position, who are the top up and comers who could vault there way into the top 10 next year? carlos rivero (CLE), esmailyn gonzalez (WAS), ruben tejada (NYM), and oscar tejada (BOS) come to mind when looking at international guys - who's your sleepers?....from the draft, moustakas and ahrens look like top 10 at the position just by default

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the numbers have be HORRIBLE!

but the Mets have really talked up the tools of Juan Lagares. They make tons of claims about his skills compared to Reyes with ARL in mind. But he has been horrible. I'm sure his tools are great but we'll see if he can put something together.

by JD Sussman on Jul 12, 2007 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

every fast player in the mets systems is

compared to reyes.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 12, 2007 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

ya by you...

by JD Sussman on Jul 12, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry

But I agree with Bravisin07 on this one. Everytime there's a speedster, Reyes' name comes up...

by Jgaztambide on Jul 12, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

lol

look at the kid and you'll see there are many similar features. And it was Tony Bennazard not some random shmo.

by JD Sussman on Jul 12, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not buying it....

I think it was Juan Mercado, who signed him, who said he was better than Reyes at the same age. But I'm sure plenty of guys are better than Reyes at 16. Reyes was a skinny 16 year old, who was still growing.

I don't think it was until 2 years later, when he was an 18 year old in low A ball hitting over .300, with 30 steals in 40 attempts that they started to realize he was top prospect. By the time he was 19, he was looking like a future superstar. Lagares is now 18 in low A and hitting .213 with 10 steals in 17 attempts. A ways to go.

I'm sure he's got good tools. Not sure he's much of a prospect yet.

by acerimusdux on Jul 13, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Giants

Emmanuel Burriss- Had a hiccup in his development trying to jump to High A. Doing great in Augusta. If he can make the next jump, could move way up as an OBP/speed guy.

Brian Bocock- seems to be a great fielder. Was hot in the first half in Augusta and got a Futures Game gig. Bat has cooled way off in San Jose.

Nick Noonan- Off to a blazing start in the AZL. Will probably end up at 2B.

Charlie Culberson- Ice cold start. Bat slowly heating up. Seems to be more of a SS than Noonan.

Adrianza/Izturis- a pair of 17 yo's in the DSL. Izturis has the pedigree. Adrianza seems to be playing the SS position down there moving Izturis to 2B.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jul 12, 2007 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

Keep in mind

Ahrens and Moustakas likely will not stick at SS either, so I would not say there are any 2007 picks that leap into the top 5 overall SS in the minors.

Things run in cycles. And right now, the SS position is extremely weak around baseball. But, like you referred to, part of the reason is because the talent has graduated. I'm sure in a couple years SS will not be nearly as weak as it is right now.

by guru4u on Jul 12, 2007 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

i doubt they'll stick at SS long-term as well

but ahrens is playing some SS currently and the royals have stated that moustakas will start hsi career there as well......by this time next year i think they'll both still be seeing time at the position......three years from now? probably not

i don't know if either will rank top 5 next year, but top 10 is certainly possible just given the lack of depth at the position and their first round status

by Wheelhouse on Jul 12, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Moustakas

If Moustakas is still at SS next year, there is no way he doesn't rank as a top 3 SS prospect. There isn't one SS in the minors that has his type of power.

by deezle on Jul 12, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm Really Interested

To see what happens with Moustakas. He has good technique, an 80 arm, but poor range. He seems like an ideal fit at 3B, but of course Gordon is already there. So where does Moustakas go - at 1B or 2B his 80 arm doesn't play - and at RF or LF you have the same problem with him not having good range.

Come on Royals put him behind the plate, you know you want to

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jul 12, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Re:

I don't think his range is as poor as you seem to imply. He's never going to be Ozzie Smith out there, but I don't think it's far-fetched at all to see him stick in the middle infield - especially if he's going to keep raking like R's think he will.

by Bowser on Jul 12, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

IMO

he is to athletic to be a 1st baseman with guys like Huber and Butler. + and 80 Arm why not make him a pitcher? jk.. He could player RF probably

by JD Sussman on Jul 12, 2007 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

most likely

if he doesn't pan out as SS...RF is the most likely spot for him with his arm.

by doublestix on Jul 12, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I mentioned him in the Rockies retro diary, but

Hector Gomez

I see him as a riser; his scouting profile is pretty exciting, and he's been producing, even if his K's are a concern.

289/327/454 as a 19 year old SS in low-A; not eye-popping, but promising, especially combined with his athleticism, etc.

BA had him as #3 prospect in the Pioneer League last year: "Gomez was one of the youngest (18) and scrawniest (157 pounds) players in the league, but managers around the league raved about his ability to play beyond his years. Armed with high baseball intelligence, he rarely was fooled at the plate, striking out just 26 times in 50 games with Casper.

Gomez is a very aggressive free swinger, but he makes contact and produces gap power thanks to his fantastic hand-eye coordination. He has solid bat speed, and as he adds muscle to his 6-foot-1 frame, the Rockies think he could hit 15-25 homers annually.

A smooth shortstop, Gomez has the plus hands and arm strength to stay there. The only knock on his defense is his ordinary range, and he did spend some time at third base."

This March, from another article:

"What makes Gomez so unique is that his bat is probably his best tool because of his exceptional hand-eye coordination and bat speed.

Listed at 6-foot-1, 157 pounds, Gomez has already added two inches and at least 15 pounds, prompting both Geivett and farm director Marc Gustafson to compare his skill set to that of another Rockies shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki. Gomez turned 19 last week and is set to spend 2007 with low Class A Asheville."

by gogotabata on Jul 12, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions

+1

Gomez is a kid that just needs to grow and play... Could be very special down the road

by tbach81 on Jul 12, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

sounds like

Andujar Cedeno--not really excited about that.

Will definitely look for the scouting reprots at the end of this year from the BA crew.

Thanks for pointing him out.

by So Cal Bob on Jul 12, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

+1 on Gomez

He's got some pop for that frame, gotta believe he will fill out and hit more.

COL has some infielders, what about Herrera and Mayora? or are those future 2B types?

by strums on Jul 12, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

+1 on Gomez

24 double so far this season. Just 19 years old in LOw A (Asheville) and still growing. Some of those doubles will turn in to home runs as he matures. He'll be a top 100 prospect very soon.

by batman on Jul 13, 2007 5:38 AM EDT up reply actions

interesting

but that K rate is pretty nasty - 84 in 334 AB's.......and only 18 BB's to go along with that

power potential is there, but he seems to be all or nothing.......certainly has alot of work to do with his plate discipline

by Wheelhouse on Jul 13, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Lowrie

If you ask me, Jed Lowrie is right behind Brignac in terms of SS prospects right now. He's hitting .305 / .405 / .510 as a 23-year old in AA, with just a 49/50 BB/K ratio (which is fantastic), lots of doubles power, and even 7 HR for nice measure.

The only reason I can see someone knocking Lowrie is because it's uncertain if he stays at SS or not, but the kid has fantastic work ethic and hasn't been moved yet. A recent piece by BA quoted a scout saying he had no worries about his defense, but again, it's only one scout, so who knows

by Jgaztambide on Jul 12, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions

+1

He doesn't get any attention. I wouldn't put him as the #2 SS prospect, but he is in the top 5 I think.

Mike Zagurski Fan Club

by Grrranderson on Jul 12, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Nelson

I know I sound like a broken record, but this guy is really getting overlooked right now. I wish I had more of a scouting report on his play this year, but his numbers are showing me that he's learning how to hit in a big way this year. More power, many more BB, less K's and showing massive plate discipline improvement every month. Both his OBP and SLG are above CAL league average. His home/road splits are small, with a 783 OPS at home and 813 on the road. His 44/16/40 G/L/F mark is also very promising.

His scouting reports even before this year were mostly positive as far as tools were concerned, so I would imagine that he hasn't taken a step back there at 21. He'll probably need to move off of SS because of Tulo, but he seems to have the athleticism to play there, although his error total is still pretty high (18 in 86 games).

Top 10? Maybe not, but he should at least be considered right now.

"fortunately, scouts believe Gomez has enough tools to replace one of his appendages a la Edward Scissorhands" - bleedjaxblue, 7/5/07

by jc3 on Jul 12, 2007 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Response

I've said a lot about this elsewhere, but I consider Cabrera to be a superior prospect to Brignac.

Not sure what to think on Andrus just yet. He doesn't show particular skill in any area offensively which is probably my biggest concern there.

We'll have to wait and see on Moustakas. He doesn't have particularly good range but at the same time I'm not yet convinced that it's going to get worse as he gets older. He seems to be putting a priority on keeping in shape and if that remains the case, I don't think it's necessarily true that he needs to move off. Oddly enough, I think his bat might actually be somewhat overestimated.

He probably won't stick at SS but I really like Kevin Ahrens. Beautiful swing and tons of projection.

by mrkupe on Jul 12, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

Question

Care to expand on why you think Moustakas' bat is overrated? It would be one thing if his senior year power surge was a fluke, but he's improved every year since his freshman season.

He has a nice, compact stroke and his batting eye is amazing (2 strikeouts all season).

Personally, I don't see why he was compared to Vitters. Moustakas is way beyond him right now and it's not particularly close. Ahrens is a nice hitter but is not in his category either.

My 2 cents.

by Bowser on Jul 12, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Response

I like his swing a lot as well and I think he'll hit for decent average. Batting eye looks good as well but it's hard to draw too much from the prep level concerning that. I just don't see the HR power that people are talking about with him, though . . .when I look at his swing I see premium gap power potential rather than a true slugger in the making. I guess I'm not convinced just yet that he'll be a really premium hitter as opposed to a solid all around bat.

Not that this is a real criticism of him, IMO. He looks like a good one, and as I mentioned I think the concerns about his glove are mildly over-stated right now.

by mrkupe on Jul 12, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Hardball Times' Carlos Gomez did a great job breaking down the mechanics of every first rounder. And his analysis showed that Moustakas does not get a lot of lift on the ball with his swing. Go check out that article (I don't have a link handy).

by guru4u on Jul 12, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gomez

I read the same piece a few weeks ago and had a feeling that was where mrkupe was coming from. That said, it's one man's opinion - Gomez isn't Miss Cleo.

Scouts generally agreed that Moustakas has light tower power, and the numbers support that - 24 HRs his senior year, 52 for his career.

by Bowser on Jul 12, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Chin-lung Hu?

or does defense not count?

by sanchez101 on Jul 12, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

defense counts

but hu has the same problem as cabrera: his high batting average this year is not supported by a high line drive rate, so it may just be a fluke. it certainly sticks out from his performance record, and he doesn't have much else going for him offensively. cabrera, of course, is two years younger than hu, so he's definitely the better prospect, though i would say he's a pretty marginal top 50 guy. it's really brignac and out, and i don't even like brignac.

by jpahk on Jul 12, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

batting average

I don't think this year is a fluke, or that it sticks out from his performance record - his averages have been:
'03 rookie .305
'04 low a/high a .300
'05 high a .313
'06 aa .254
He also said he had vision problems with blurriness in his right eye last year, since resolved, which may account for low average in aa.
It's certainly true that he's not been nor likely ever to be an XBH machine, but he may hit for average. I don't think he's going to be an impact player, but I think he's got a good shot at being an every day big league shortstop.

by dodgem on Jul 12, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Hu's Stats

Hu's 2006 numbers were a flukish from a negative perspective. His strikeout rate was higher than his career norms and he was decidely unlucky with his BABIP. His LD% was 16 and his BABIP was only .283, while this year the LD% is consistent and his BABIP is .353. That makes a huge difference: bad luck last year combined with good luck and cutting down on his strikeouts this year makes it looks like a breakout.

My only concern is Hu's power spike. His ISOp currently sits at .179, which is excellent for his position, but is not supported by his previous stats. So the question is whether or not this improvement is real or a fluke. I'm not sure either way.

by count sutton on Jul 13, 2007 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

I like what I've seen of him... I don't know how much power he has, but his approach in the Futures Game impressed me.

"fortunately, scouts believe Gomez has enough tools to replace one of his appendages a la Edward Scissorhands" - bleedjaxblue, 7/5/07

by jc3 on Jul 12, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

+2

I think he's going to be a good player in the Show due to his knowledge and smarts rather than just on talent alone. He looks like a guy who plays the game hard everyday- max effort everytime out.

I also agree with the vision problems leading to issues with his BA. I think he's got some Ichiro in him where he's going to run out a lot of GBs, and it's not an asian thing, he's just quick and has a slashing swing.

"Standard disclaimer: it's baseball, even if he's cooked, someone'll overpay." -drjayphd

by JT12340 on Jul 13, 2007 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Asdrubal

Cabrera needs to maintain his production for the second half of the season, presumably spending at least part of that at AAA Buffalo, before we can really feel comfortable about his offensive production. But my guess is that he'll be able to do that. As far as position switches...Cabrera won't get moved off of SS for Peralta if he forces his way into Cleveland. More likely Peralta will get moved to either 3B or a corner OF slot given the strength of his arm and his lack of range at SS.

by APV @ Minor League Ball on Jul 12, 2007 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

+1

I can't see Peralta blocking Cabrera defensively. And it's not like there aren't other positions they could play Jhonny. Unless Marte reemerges, 3B would seem like a logical move.

by knightgalt on Jul 12, 2007 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed!

Hello APV and knightgalt,

Agreed on Cabrera - Peralta will not stand in his way defensively, and with the resurgence in Peralta's bat so far in 2007, he would be a prime candidate to move to 3B, RF, possibly even 2B (though the other two are more likely, especially 3B, mostly for the reason that Peralta did play some 3B in the Minors, even at AAA Buffalo when he was coming up in the system with Brandon Phillips - Peralta would play SS and 3B, Phillips would play 2B and SS.)

With the question marks surrounding Marte, I don't think it's out of the question Peralta could be the Indians' future 3rd baseman when Cabrera arrives if Marte doesn't get it going consistently over the rest of this season and early next season - by that time, Cabrera will probably be in AAA, possibly knocking on the door to the MLs.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 12, 2007 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Gregorio Petit

He's the best defensive player in the A's system, he sounds like gold glove potential at shortstop. He was said to be ML ready in terms of defense already last year. He's just 22. On the hitting side, he's not much of a power hitter, but this was his line this year at AA before getting promoted a couple weeks ago.

306/.361/.403 with a 25/44 BB/K ratio. The good thing was that he improved those ratios from last year in A+, cutting his K rate from 16.8% to 14.7% and upping his walk rate from 6.7% to 8.4%. He also had a really nice line drive percentage of 19%.

Firstinning.com lists him at 5'10, 160 pounds. He's not a big guy, but he's pretty speedy, and last year in 519 at bats, he had 25 doubles, 7 triples and 8 homers. He seems to have some gap power, and if he can combine this years improved strike zone judgement with last years gap power he'll be real good.

(After pitcher tells GM he will pitch half of the games, complete them and they will all be QS)The GM has an orgasm and a heart attack at the same time.-Shamus

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Jul 12, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

Triunfel

The Mariners have pretty much said that they don't believe he's going to stick at SS, but they are going to give him a chance to do so. I guess it all depends on how he fills out over the next few years.

by Goose on Jul 12, 2007 4:08 PM EDT reply actions

Plouffe

He's the best of the first round class from 2004. As a 20 year old in AA, he's hitting .286/.333/.435 with 32 XBHs in 332 ABs. He has some rough edges in his defense, but he has the tools.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jul 12, 2007 5:51 PM EDT reply actions

Carlos Rivero!

Hello everyone,

Rivero just returned from a sprained ankle; his BA was up around .300 earlier in the year at Low-A, but has slowly dropped down to the .260-range, though still not bad for his first full season in the Minors at age 19.

Unfortunately, I do not have the link, but I think it was either BA or BP (not sure) that had one scout say that Rivero reminded him a lot in body type to Marlins 3B Miguel Cabrera, who himself started off as a SS in the Marlins' system. In addition, this scout also thought that Rivero may eventually have to move to 3B as well, being that he thought that Rivero could also outgrow the position. Rivero was listed at the start of this season at 6'3" 198 lb.

This doesn't mean Rivero will turn into the next Cabrera, of course, but that comment really peaked my interest in Rivero and made me watch him a little more closely than I did last year, as I read this comment during this past offseason, not long before the start of the season if I remember correctly. Perhaps someone can find it by Googling it - I'm not sure.

Currently, Rivero's line is .268/.331/.381, with 35 R/71 H/18 2B/4 HR/39 RBI/25 BB/47 K in 71 G, 265 ABs - not bad for a 19-YO.

It will be interesting to see if he develops more power as this scout was implying with his Cabrera comment and whether Rivero can stay at SS or move to 3B.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 12, 2007 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

Escobar

Anyone have any thoughts or comments on Alcides Escobar? you keep hearing potential..but having never seen him play..is he overhyped or what?

by NYSOX on Jul 12, 2007 10:22 PM EDT reply actions

All potential, mediocre results

The Brewers are in love with his glove and he hits for good average, but he doesn't walk and his power is really limited. That said, he's still young (20 at Double A). He's pretty much blocked in Milwaukee anyway, so he's got all the time in the world to work it out.

That said, if he can stick at SS, Brent Brewer seems like a more intriguing prospect for the Brewers. Extremely athletic and toolsy, but really, really raw. Already walks and hits for more power than Escobar, but strikes out at an insane rate and is a butcher with the glove.

by beerambassador on Jul 13, 2007 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions