John's Top Draft Hitting Prospects

by John Sickels on Jun 6, 2007 10:15 AM EDT in News

My Ranking of the Top Hitting Prospects for the Draft
Keep in mind that this reflects my personal opinion based on my own neural processing of available information, scouting reports, video, historical comparisons, and (in some cases with the college guys) personal observation. Your own mileage may vary a great deal. Talent and projection are the considerations here, not signability.
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Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County HS, McDonough, GA
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS, CA
Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS, CA
Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis Clark State College
Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS, CA
Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS, Houston, TX
Devin Mesaraco, C, Punxsutawney HS, PY
Corey Brown, OF, Oklahoma State
Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Liberty-Elyau HS, Texarkana, TX
Matt LaPorta, 1B, University of Florida
Julio Borbon, OF, University of Tennessee

Feel free to critique if you like, but these are my honest opinions and I'm not just going to replicate what everyone else is saying. My liking for Heyward is obvious, and at this point I think Moustakas is just a tad ahead of Vitters due to a more complete overall package. Among the college guys, I think Corey Brown is rather underrated by a lot of folks. He's got tools and it is hard to knock his college performance.

UPDATE: I'm open to the idea of moving LaPorta ahead of Brown...what do you guys think?

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Corey Brown

He showed a rare combo of power and speed in college, but what about all of the K's and the poor performance in the Cape Cod League?

by mtk52983 on Jun 6, 2007 10:13 AM EDT reply actions

brown

"Among the college guys, I think Corey Brown is rather underrated by a lot of folks. He's got tools and it is hard to knock his college performance."

i agree, except for the whole striking out a ton part. he does have great tools, but like drew stubbs is he ever going to make contact? he's a very good defensive rightfielder, but he isn't a gold glove centerfielder like stubbs so he is going to have to hit even more. maybe he turns into a toolsier nick swisher, but i just question his ability to ever hit for a decent average.

by fewgoodcards on Jun 6, 2007 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Vitters

His bat speed and pitch recognition is unparalleled in this class. He already has plus raw power at 17 years old, and his frame suggests it will grow to plus-plus power within a couple years.

Overall I like your list, but personally I would put Vitters at #1 if we're going by talent and projection.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 6, 2007 10:18 AM EDT reply actions

ugly list

LaPorta is easily better than your 6-10. Brown is a whiff machine who plays in one of the best hitting parks in college baseball. LaPorta has game changing power and homered (20) more times than he struck out (16). In fact, he even had more HBP that strike outs as well.

by im not new on Jun 6, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply actions

porta

He's also a senior. However, you are right about his oustanding performance. I'll think about it more.

by John Sickels on Jun 6, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: porta

LaPorta didn't just suddenly turn it on his senior year. He led the nation in home runs his sophomore season.

I often lean towards middle of the diamond players to decide close calls. But I don't think it's even particularly close between Brown and LaPorta. To me if you go Brown here it's like when Boston took David Murphy over Quentin and Jackson a few years ago.

sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Jun 6, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

mesaraco

is listed that high, in front of laporta?

http://sheafaithful.blogspot.com/ aamzing baseball blog

by Ludacrispat26 on Jun 6, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

Devin Mesaraco, C, Punxsutawney HS, PY

What state is PY? =-D

by mroak89 on Jun 6, 2007 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

I Didn't Realize

This is the groundhog town right?

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jun 6, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

John

just keep in mind that LaPorta had more homeruns than strikeouts this year. And like others pointed out, he led the nation in homeruns his sophomore year--he has been this good for a while now. When I watch his swing in some of the draft videos, it looks very smooth as he drives the ball with authority. From what I can tell about the scouting reports, I think he definitely has a chance to stick at 1B and become a slugger there.

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Jun 6, 2007 12:08 PM EDT reply actions

Middlebrooks

Looks like Middlebrooks is coming in to this draft without a lot of recognition, which means he could slip into the supplemental, or second round, and that would be a steal. I believe if this kid played in a bigger market like Dallas or Houston he would be higher on everyone's lists.

by JFP on Jun 6, 2007 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

LaPorta

I'd move LaPorta just behind Dominguez. In terms of upside, the HS bats COULD end up outperforming LaPorta long term, but I think LaPorta is probably the safest bat in the draft to actually produce in the big leagues within the next 4 seasons. He's a senior, and will move quickly. He could be a great fit for a team like the Yankees, should he slide that far.

by jasvlm on Jun 6, 2007 12:33 PM EDT reply actions