Nationals Postmortem

Nationals Mock Draft Recap:

I'm pretty happy with the results of this mock draft.  As expected, I was able to target a healthy mix of college and high school talent that should bear immediate fruit for the National's bereft farm system.  Mills, Ramirez, Rike, and Morris were all guys that I really hoped would fall to me.  Even when I had to compromise after losing some of my primary targets, I feel the backup choices were pretty solid.  Input before and during the draft was pretty minimal - As an Orioles fan, I'd love to hear what other Nationals fans think of this draft.

006) Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis Clark State

Overdraft?  I don't think so.  Mills offers an ideal combination of power and upside with a proven track record of success.  I really believe in his bat - he has amazing bat speed, good plate coverage, and the best power stroke in this year's draft class.  Although he could be a slightly-below-average defender at the hot corner with time, I'm essentially drafting him as a first baseman, where his average range but below-average arm profile better.  He'll never challenge for a Gold Glove, but his bat will carry him at every level.  I considered Parker, Heyward, and Main in this slot briefly, with only Parker even making me think twice.

031) Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas

Nevin Griffith was my guy here for weeks leading up to the draft.  Knowing Mills was my guy at #6 overall, I wanted to follow up with the best prep pitcher remaining, and Griffith stood head-and-shoulders above the competition.  I was devastated when John profiled him in a very positive manner on Saturday, and sure enough, the Giants plucked him off the board at #29 overall on Sunday.  The next best preps on my board were Neil Ramirez, Kyle Blair, and Dan Duffy, and it just seemed too early to pull the trigger on any of these guys.  My college back-ups were Schmidt and Maryland's Brett Cecil.  Cecil has better stuff than Schmidt, but Schmidt has been more successful as a starter against tougher competition.  He has great pitchability and a fierce competitive streak that should lead to excellent results.

049) Neil Ramirez, RHP, Virginia HS

Before the draft, I hoped to pluck Justin Jackson or Nick Noonan with this slot.  Both of these targets went off the board in the first round, so I turned my attention to prep pitchers and the second tier of toolsy middle infielders (Soto, Nash, Thomas Jr.).  Ramirez is the guy that really stuck in my head, despite his struggles this year.  He still generates mid-90s heat with a loose, quick arm action, and his secondary pitches are inconsistent but very promising.  As a local guy, I've seen him quite a bit in person and he seems like a natural fit for the Nationals.  He's not as polished as he once seemed to be - he needs some quality coaching to repeat his delivery and build up stamina to keep his velocity late into games - but his upside is as high as any high school pitcher in the draft.

067) Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech

Rike is a guy that I wanted all along.  I originally planned to pop him with the #100 pick, but I got a little nervous when the more vaunted college power bats (Kulbacki, Desme, Donaldson) flew off the board late in the supplemental 1st.  Rike's power numbers are misleading as Louisiana Tech plays in pretty cozy confines, but I'm more intrigued by his total package of talent.  He makes hard, consistent contact to all fields with a sweet left-handed stroke.  Combined with plus speed and instincts, plus arm strength, and good range in center field, the occasional Grady Sizemore comp is probably over-optimistic, but maybe not too far-fetched.  He may profile better in right field down the road, but I'd make him play his way out of center first.

070) Garrett Nash, SS, Utah HS

Having landed a genuine 5-tool stud in Brian Rike, I felt compelled to find a similar talent in an athletic, toolsy middle infielder.  I looked at Nash, Soto, and Thomas Jr. for pick #49 after Jackson and Noonan went early, and felt Nash represented a classic high-risk/high-reward choice.  His main weapon is game-changing speed.  With a 6.26 time in the 60, and an eye-popping 120-1 SB-CS ratio in his high school career, Nash will be a terror on the basepaths.  His bat will take longer to develop, but his switch-hitting stroke and power potential are promising.  I'm not sure if he has the instincts to stick at shortstop; second base may be a better fit down the road.  FSU's Tony Thomas would have been a more conventional (safe) choice here, but I was afraid of skewing too heavily towards college players at this point.  I don't have enough solid info on Soto - a lot of these PRBBA guys seem heavily touted, only to spend the next three years in Extended Spring Training.

100) Hunter Morris, OF, Alabama HS

Hunter is another guy I earmarked early on.  I actually considered him as early as #67, but went with Rike there instead, figuring if I missed out on Morris at #100, I'd be able to pluck a similar talent from Alabama in D.J. Jones.  Morris broke a bone in his hand late in the season, but has been an outstanding performer in high school, summer ball, and showcases for years.  He has a combination of exceptional plate disclipline and power that is rare for his age.  His other tools are average at best, and he'll get looks at SS and OF to find the best fit defensively.  He reminds me a lot of Matt Sulentic from last year's draft - I just hope his bat has more staying power than Sulentic's has shown this year J

130) Duke Welker, RHP, Arkansas

The last of Arkansas' outstanding starting trio, Welker is a huge, fiery guy who's still learning his role as a power pitcher.  His FB touches 96 with easy arm action, and his slider grades out as average with potential for more.  He doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like, but he's put up respectable results against a tough schedule and should only get better.  He'll feel right at home with Razorback teammate Nick Schmidt as well.  A minor red flag is that he had labrum surgery two years ago, but he has not had any injury concerns since. I also considered Stetson's Corey Kluber and Charlotte's Adam Mills in this slot, but I just couldn't pass up a big, bad dude named Duke.

160) Justin Grimm, RHP, Virginia HS

You can never have enough pitching.  With two solid college arms on board, I planned early on to devote this pick to a high-upside prep or junior college pick.  Before the draft, I was really set on taking Central Arizona College star LHP, Australian transplant Josh Spence with this pick.  13-3, 0.71, 149k/15bb in 121 IP, 16 starts, 16 CG, 9 SHO.  A few more scouting reports finally convinced me that his stuff was too fringy to play (even in Round 5), but he's still a guy I'll be following with great interest on June 7th.  I suspect he won't even get drafted...Among the preps, this really came down to Grimm and Alabama RHP Austin Bailey.  They have similar stuff, though Grimm is bigger and possibly more projectable.  He's still a bit raw working his way back from a broken arm, but has shown a FB up to 94, a good changeup, and a rapidly improving curve.  A somewhat local boy, and an anticipated quick sign.

I almost passed on Grimm to take a flier on LHP John Gast, who had TJ surgery in April.  I believe that some team will in the real draft (ala Adenhart), pay him supp. 1st-2nd round money, and get him signed in time to rehab under Major League care.  However, this probably won't happen in Rounds 1-5 (more likely 10-20), so I didn't do it here.  It was very tempting, though...

Once again, thanks to John Sickels and everyone who participated in this Mock Draft for making it a blast.  It's great to play Scouting Director for a day.  

That's enough BS out of me.  Comments?  Criticism?  GM job offers?  Post `em here.