Beau Mills

Thinking about Beau Mills
With a relative shortage of top college hitters this year, Beau Mills stands out. He was a very good hitter at Fresno State his first two years, but transferred to the smaller pond of Lewis-Clark State this year and put up monstrous numbers: .458/.556/1.033, with 38 homers, 22 doubles, 123 RBI, 43 walks, and 22 strikeouts in 240 at-bats. His OPS was 1.589. The combined OPS of the games in which he played was about .797...a crude estimate would put his OPS+ at 199. Basically he was so much better than his teammates or the competition that the numbers move into the ridiculous category. Imagine Albert Pujols playing in the Pioneer League.
Scouts are certain that Mills' power is for real and that he'll continue to hit for plus power at higher levels. He's got solid plate discipline. There's some doubt about what his batting average is going to look like, but he should post a solid OBP no matter what to go with his power. The main issue is defense. Shoulder problems have limited his arm strength, and he doesn't have a lot of mobility. He'll probably end up at first base eventually.
I could see Mills going anywhere from picks four to twenty, depending on how things shake out with the high schoolers. My question for you is this: if you drafted Mills, where would you start him? Would you send him to short-season ball, or, considering his dominance this year, would you stick him in a full-season league right off the bat, and if so, how high?
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31 comments
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Good question on development track....
Long term, sounds like 1B is his likely destination. I'd probaly keep him at 3B to start, just to see if there was any hope of him sticking there.
by guru4u on Jun 4, 2007 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Placement
by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but
by z4 landshark on Jun 4, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+2... mostly
If he does well though, move him to AA like I stated, and if he continues to hit well, maybe even give him a try in AAA for the last week or the season. Just to see how he does there. Depending on his AA and maybe AAA numbers, decide where to start him next season. Most likely AA, but if he is killing everywhere he goes, he may be ready for AAA in 2008. Maybe a September call-up to the Giants in 08 too.
I wouldn't move him as fast as Zimmerman moved, but if you can ease his mind from any defensive woes by playing him at 1B, it may allow him to fast track a little quicker to the bigs.
by Boxkutter on Jun 4, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Separated At Birth?
by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure John's OPS+ calc is way too low
Gives us:
1.61 + 2.29 - 1.00 = 2.90
So yeah, OPS+ of 290 (not adjusted for park). Not bad.
by Kyle S on Jun 4, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ummm
by Kanst42 on Jun 4, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction
by Kanst42 on Jun 4, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
short season ball
by znyfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd start him at A
by Vlad on Jun 4, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
parting shots
by jpahk on Jun 4, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mills Kills
by birdtown on Jun 4, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mills Kills Deux
Wow, the above is really hard to read. Let's try this:
I'm even higher on Mills than most and consider him (along with Price and Weiters) to be the surest bet as a MFL contributor. I'd probably let him get his feet wet in Low A, but be quick to pull the trigger and move him to High A in 2007 if he performs as expected. Perhaps as soon as a few weeks in. One of the chief knocks on Mills has been the strength of his competition, so as a GM I'd want to bury those doubts by putting him up against age-appropriate competition ASAP. Mills turns 21 on 08/15/07. The long-term goal is to start at AA in 2008, and perhaps earn a cup of coffee in September '08. His bat is going to move FAST!
His position might depends more on the organization that drafts him. I think he's close enough to the majors that you have to take positional needs into consideration here. He's not graceful at 3B, but his defense improved significantly over the course of the season, and he could possibly be a league-average defender with a lot of work over there. For a team like the Nationals, though, his glove is never going to dislodge Zimmerman, so an immediate move to 1B may be the best course.
I think Mills is a particularly good fit for PIT, BAL, and WAS early on. SF will definately take him off the board at #10 if he makes it that far.
by birdtown on Jun 4, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mills
by phuturephillies on Jun 4, 2007 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
starting off
by fewgoodcards on Jun 4, 2007 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
If he destroys the league like Longoria did, then bump him to high A in season.
by elricsi on Jun 5, 2007 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
High A
by casejud on Jun 5, 2007 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish I had some idea
I think I'd rather see him go to a relatively low-octane environment. I would be more inclined to start him in low-A, rather than high-A, especially if he's drafted by a team whose high-A affiliate is in the California League. I'm just not 100% sold that he's really that good.
by MikeE on Jun 5, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by Kanst42 on Jun 5, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I appreciate the concearn for him...
He is SUCH a gifted hitter. You have no idea. Im tellin ya.
Another prediction: Teams are hiding their interest in him and on draft dsay he will go a LOT higher than most expect...no lower than #6. Just a feeling. Maybe Orioles do something smart for once?
by casejud on Jun 5, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein on Mills
Cons: His aggressive hitting style worked in Idaho, but he might be prone to chasing pitches against better pitching; a bad defender who will likely require an immediate move to first base.
He played all year at the NAIA, which does not offer good competition. My worry stems from his performance last summer in the Alaskan summer league (worse competition then the Cape League) where he hit around .270 with a bunch of K's. I think he needs some time in the low minors to work on hitting guys with good sliders, he will probably crush Low A but I dont know if he is ready to handle AA.
by Kanst42 on Jun 5, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laporta
I'm not going to argue that Mills NAIA stats have no meaning. He certainly was impressive. But I'd have a hard time believing that the Division I OPS leader would take a backseat regarding production to anything a lower level college division player might do.
by im not new on Jun 5, 2007 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1/2 Answer
by WayneCampbell05 on Jun 5, 2007 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wood Bats?
by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walks
by e 6 on Jun 6, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mills to Mahoning Valley
Indians scouting director John Mirabelli says that Beau Mills "will be assigned to the Indians' rookie level team at Mahoning Valley initially."
So there's the answer.
by knightgalt on Jun 8, 2007 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs










