Age vs. Level- when to take numbers for real

by novaoakland on Jun 27, 2007 10:32 PM EDT Comment 5 comments

When can I take numbers an older minor leaguer puts up for real?

I will use a specific example of a player but looking for overall comments.

Dave Mckae went undrafted as a 22 YO senior.

Signed with the Giants and started in low A as a 23 year old where in 67 IP's he had a 2.4 ERA 11.15 k/9 and 1.07 WHIP with a 4.8 k/BB. (Clearly too old for that competition so you discard the numbers)

Next year at 24 he was in A ball and threw 85 innings. 1.8 ERA, 7.5 k/9 and 4.1 k/BB ratio. (still much too old for competition so you discard the numbers)

Now at 25 he started the year in A (California league). 65 IP, 1.93 ERA 8k/9 and 3.5 K/BB ratio. (still seeing a 25 YO in A ball but begining to wonder)

A month ago he was promoted to AA in 5 starts he has averaged 7IP per start. A 1.47 ERA, 26k's and 3 BB's. --

Is these numbers continue at AA this year should we pay attention or is the age factor too much to over come?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Dave%2520McKae&pos=P&sid=milb& t=p_pbp&pid=489549

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some thoughts

First off the age thing isn't so simple. People are talking like FMart will be a stud because he's holding his own at a very young age in AA. But when Navarro was with the Yankees and pushed agressively people said similar things (although not as highly ranked). Just because they are doing well at a higher level doesn't mean they will develop.

On the flip side there are many players that develop late. Some pitchers because they started late (were first position players) and some just because they physically matured later.

Just a guess but I think we see more Latin players blossom earlier in the minors, Americans at the norm, and Canadians and other cold weather countries blossoming later. All due to how much ball they have played. Of course there are exceptions.

OK, now on to your question.

With regards to this player one thing I noticed and I notice very often. Typically guys with very high K's and high BB's in the lower levels is indicative of good stuff. Guys with high K's and very low BB's (like McKae) are indicitive of very good pitchability with several pitches they can throw for strikes.

Guys with serious break on their breaking pitches almost never have great control at the lower levels - it's just harder to throw good stuff for strikes.

While the talent is there in AA they are just not ready to face a guy that can throw four different pitches in any count and can work both up and down as well as in and out.

So based on numbers I'd say he isn't for real. BUT that is just numbers and the big thing would be to read game logs (try http://www.milb.com) to see what they say about him.

by pedrophile on Jun 27, 2007 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For me

ARL is always a big deal for young players.

For older players, it is a little bit different. First, I think any strong performance at AA or AAA deserves to be noticed. This is because these leagues are so close to the majors that players are regularly called up from both. Second, I think it's important if a player is repeating a level - and dominating the second time. Since that's not happening in the case of the player you mentioned, I think he deserves at least a little attention. He's too old to ever be a top prospect, but if his stuff is decent he can still have a meaningful impact to a big league club...

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jun 27, 2007 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mckae

as it happens, i saw mckae pitch in the only live minor league game i've been to this year. he shut out the portland sea dogs over 7 innings in his AA debut, striking out 8 and walking none. here is a link to what i wrote at the time:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/6/3/18487/51581

most of it is not about mckae, though, because i'd never heard of him before that day.

subjectively, i wasn't real impressed with his fastball but he was locating his curveball well and getting most of his K's because of it. you might say that a high-80s FB and a good curve aren't enough to succeed in the majors if you're a right-handed pitcher, but there's justin duchscherrer, who's carved out a fine career as a relief pitcher based on his ability to spot his fastball and curve, so i wouldn't put it past him. as DrB pointed out in that previous thread, though, the real test for him will be in the PCL.

by jpahk on Jun 27, 2007 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I also saw Mckae pitch

His fastball was sitting in the mid-to-high 80s. His curveball and slider both looked like plus pitches. He threw a lot of strikes. Too many actually as he looked rather hittable in that start. The scout sitting next to me said that he has a chance to be a big league pitcher despite his mediocre fastball because of his curve and slider and because of his ability to consistantly throw a lot of strikes.

by SBcaptain2 on Jun 28, 2007 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

I have nothing to add except to say that this is the kind of thread that makes me visit this website and lurk on a daily basis. You guys bring great insights on a daily basis. Good stuff!

by Patrick Bateman on Jun 28, 2007 1:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs