Guthrie

by HectorLuna on Jun 21, 2007 1:05 PM EDT

This year he's posted a great K/bb rate as well as an outstanding GB/FB rate (except last night). Coming into this year he had struggled constantly since his time at Stanford. Is he the real deal or is this an aberration?

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he is for real

he's had the stuff and now has the command to go with it. Coupled with his better command is his confidence and poise on the hill.

It's truly a nice turnaround for the guy after being dropped by CLE.

He reminds me of Kevin Brown minus about 3-4 MPH when he was in FLA and SD. His fastball moves like crazy and his slider has been untouchable.

by So Cal Bob on Jun 21, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

Yup

Real deal.

Whenever anyone asks me about Guts, or whether he can sustain it, I tell 'em to just watch him pitch once. Everyone who's taken that advice has come back convinced.

by Yakker on Jun 21, 2007 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

Real...

...freaking deal.

Although, expect some regression, given that the only average or better offenses he has faced are the Red Sox and Angels (w/Kotchman and Kendrick).

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on Jun 21, 2007 1:28 PM EDT reply actions

Competition

Actually, based on R/G, 5 of Guthrie's 9 starts have come against "average or better offenses," at least relative to the league:

NL teams (4.47 league average):
SDG, 4.57
COL, 4.53

AL teams (4.90 league average):
LAA, 5.08
BOS, 5.09
TAM, 4.94

Your point about competition may still be valid, since so many of his starts have come during interleague play and/or in favorable pitching environments, but I don't think saying he's "only" faced 2 average or better offensive teams tells the whole story.

by Yakker on Jun 21, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Real deal but.......

i expect a pretty significant 2nd half drop off.......he pitched winter ball last year, so i think his arm will tire over the course of the rest of the season.....good chance he'll end up on the DL at some point.....i think the ERA will float up to 3.50-4.00 (still pretty good) and a 1.30 WHIP....as well, he's only faced the sox once and has not seen the yanks yet

by Wheelhouse on Jun 21, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

True...

But the one time he did face the Sox, he absolutely dominated them for 8 and two thirds.

by Pawtucket Pat on Jun 21, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

re:

what makes you believe he gets injured?

Trembley even mentioned is post-game conference last night what great shape he is is and keeps himself in between starts. Just curious.

by So Cal Bob on Jun 21, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I touched on it

he threw in winter ball (where he was basically auditioning for a job) and that is something he historically hasn't done.....on top of the 142 IP he threw during the season (which has been his norm the past few years), i think those extra innings will catch up to him at some point

by Wheelhouse on Jun 21, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks

I thought that's where you were going, but wanted to make sure. Didn't know if you felt he would get injured because of some mechanical flaw you see or something like that.

by So Cal Bob on Jun 21, 2007 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Injury

Time will tell, but a few thoughts about the workload "catching up" with Guthrie:

The O's have kept very close tabs on JG's pitch counts: 101, 92, 114, 88, 96, 112, and 67 in his starts so far this year.
Mazzone's throwing program has kept a lot of pitchers healthy over the years. In last night's game, interim manager and former bullpen coach Dave Trembley (who was the guy who went out on a limb and recommended that Baltimore grab Guthrie off the wire) mentioned that one of the things the O's noticed was that Guthrie "liked to throw on the side," which fit with Mazzone's philosophy.
Guthrie's a rookie but he's also 29 and thus theoretically through the injury nexus.

Any time a pitcher's workload spikes there's cause for concern, of course, but these may be a few reasons why Guthrie will avoid serious injury this year.

by Yakker on Jun 21, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

and to think

I added Scott Baker instead of Guthrie a few weeks back in a fantasy league.

by rdf8585 on Jun 21, 2007 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

Real Deal

Just watching this guy's start you see it. Very good arsenal and excellent command

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jun 21, 2007 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

Real Deal, but....

As Wheelhouse stated, he's due for a regression. This blog did a great analysis recently on Guthrie:

<url>http://www.rotoauthority.com/2007/06/a_look_at_jerem.html</url>

As the blog states, his hit rate is unsustainable. Period. He is a very good pitcher, but even guys like Santana don't post that kind of hit rate over a full season.

The stats say Guthrie has been very lucky this year, but they also say even if he regresses back to the mean, he's still a darn good pitcher.

by guru4u on Jun 21, 2007 3:48 PM EDT reply actions