Mock/Real/Shadow Draft Comparison: Pirates

by MikeE on Jun 12, 2007 8:21 PM EDT Comment 3 comments

I did a shadow draft for the Pirates, and I thought I'd steal a page from John's book and post the comparisons here, with the actual round and slot selected following the pick:

Mock:

Josh Vitters, 3B, California HS (1.3)
Kevin Patterson, 1B, Alabama HS (24.25)
Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Alabama HS (1supp.30)
Austin Romine, C, California HS (2.30)
Connor Graham, RHP, Miami (O) (5.8)

Shadow:

Jason Heyward, OF, Georgia HS (1.14)
Kentrail Davis, OF, Alabama HS (14.8)
Victor Sanchez, 3B, California HS (25.3)
Charlie Furbush, LHP, LSU (4.27)
Kyle Blair, RHP, California HS (5.22)

Actual:

Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson U (1.4)
Duke Welker, RHP, U of Arkansas (2.4)
Brian Friday, SS, Rice U (3.4)
Quincy Lattimore, CF, NC HS (4.4)
Andrew Walker, C, TCU (5.4)

I like the mock draft better than my shadow draft, all things considered (although in the shadow I didn't have a shot at the players picked in the mock, except for Patterson), and I like both of them far better than I like what the Pirates actually did. I think I overdrafted Sanchez.

For the real picks, Lattimore in the 4th and Walker in the 5th were serious overdrafts, IMO. Lattimore doesn't have the range or arm for center, from what I've heard, and may not develop enough bat for a corner position. Walker's an OK catcher but doesn't really have anything that stands out; I don't see anything to recommend him over Alex Garabedian, for example, who went three round later.

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Addendum

I actually went five rounds deeper into the draft than we did in the mock.

Shadow:

DeVon Torrence, OF, Ohio HS (16.17)
David Mailman, 1B, NC HS (7.20). I originally took Andrew Lambo, 1B/OF, CA HS, thinking he was still available, but he'd already gone in the 4th round, so I took the next guy at the position on my board.
Chris Colon, SS, California HS (10.23)
Tony Watson, LHP, U of Nebraska (9.4). The only pick that matched what the Pirates did.
Sean Koecheler, RHP, Florida HS (20.22)

Actual:

Matt Foust, RHP, U of Nebraska (6.4)
Juan Garcia, C, Puerto Rico HS (7.4)
Maurice Bankston, RHP, Texarkana CC (8.4)
Watson
Sean Giblin, RHP, NY HS (10.4)

I have to admit I knew nothing about Bankston at all, but after finding, and looking at, his scouting report I'm inclined to look at that as a pretty good pick for round 8. I still like the upside of my group better. Torrence dropped because of signability concerns, but I figured from what I read that he'd sign for 4th-5th round money, so I took a shot in the early 6th round figuring I could go over slot enough to nab him. Koecheler dropped to the 20th round and the Dodgers for reasons I can't figure; he was supposed to be very signable and isn't a lot different from Bachanov, who was taken a lot higher.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Jun 12, 2007 8:32 PM EDT reply actions