Prospect Smackdown: Lars Anderson vs. Chris Marrero

by guru4u on Jun 1, 2007 2:20 PM EDT Comment 11 comments

Who turns out to be the better major leaguer?

All sorts of things to analyze here. Marrero has more pop in his bat than Lars, but his home park (assuming he sticks with Wash) is very much a pitcher's park. I also wonder whether he will hit for a good average as he rises up the ranks.

Lars seems to have a bit of a cult following here. He has definitely produced great results so far in Low A ball. He's hitting for great average, and his contact rate supports the results. The power isn't quite there yet, but I think it will come eventually. I do not think he'll ever be a 40+ HR guy, but a slightly lesser version of Justin Morneau is not out of the realm of possibility.

Poll

Which player would you rather have in your organization?

Chris Marrero

37 votes

Lars Anderson

40 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 11 comments

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Comments

Marrero

is showing a lot of power so far at Low-A Hagerstown (12 HR in 185 AB's) which is impressive considering Hagerstown is very much a pitcher's park.

like unto a thing of iron.

by Ryan Heimberger on Jun 1, 2007 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Answer

Larrrrrrrrrrrs, baby. Teams are now scared to pitch to him.

by HumboltThunderbolt on Jun 1, 2007 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Can't Lars have 40 Home Run Power? Also, and not that it really matters, but Won't Washing have a new stadium in the next few years?

by benzalman on Jun 1, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lars

Both are Similar in size but Lars has an inch on him and bats lefty which is a plus. In addition Lars as shown a much better eye at the plate, though he is a year older. Marrero also doesn't have many extra base hits other than his HRs. Which is something that always stands out to me. Despite him having 12 HR to Lars's 5, he has a lower OPS (due to Lars more advance approach). Marrero's Slugging % is 80 points high but I don't think he will sustain it. Because of his lack of extra base hits, and power last season. Only time will tell, but the more advanced eye at the plate and room to fill out into a bigger player tells me that Lars will be the more complete player.

by Metty5 on Jun 1, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Marrero

Where did you get this information from Metty? Because firstinning.com has Marrero with 10 double and 12 homeruns compared to Anderson's 14 doubles and 5 homeruns. I think the fact of the matter is that Marrero is hitting for much more power (IsoP of .249 compared to Anderson's .165) and striking out less all while being almost a year younger. I agree that Anderson does have better plate discipline at this time but I think when you're looking at 19 year old prospects there are much more important things to look at like the ability to make consistent hard contact and I think Marrero is miles ahead of Anderson in this area.

Anderson's power has been decent, but a .165 IsoP really isn't anything to write home about and he's striking out in over 21% of his plate appearances which is below average. Also don't forget that Marrero started off the year quite poorly and is hitting the ball considerably better than his numbers suggest. He hit 11 of his 12 homers last month, had an OPS over 1.000 all while being a little bit unlucky as far as BABIP goes (.275 for the month). Contrast that to Anderson's BABIP of over .400 so far this season and I think it's pretty clear that Anderson is due for some hefty regression while Marrero's numbers are likely to improve even more.

I think Anderson is a fine prospect and given his reported power potential I think he has a good chance to turn into a fine player, but I find it difficult to believe that people are ranking Anderson's possible future power and plate discipline over Marrero's incredible current power all while being younger and a great deal unluckier on balls in play.

by neutralluke on Jun 1, 2007 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

marrero has 10 doubles

by Bravesin07 on Jun 1, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

washington pitcher's park

RFK isn't their long-term park. They are building a new stadium.

by Curtis Pride on Jun 1, 2007 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Quite frankly....

...I'd consider these guys about even. They're both certainly 1st round talents. And it's a little insane to be basing a decision on who's better on a 2-month sample size. That said, they both appear to be performing to their scouting profiles. Lars has a more advanced approach and Marrero is more of an all or nothing type, with a fair amount of K's. I see them both projecting to 30-homers per year in their primes, with Lars perhaps a bit more (which he'll need at 1B). Now, if the Nats would've kept Marrero at 3B like they should've done (Zimmerman or no Zimmerman), I might give him the edge because of positional value. But since it looks like he'll be an outfielder instead, I may give Lars the EVER MOST SLIGHT edge long-term (without looking at each guy's stats to date). But personally, I hope both guys become perennial all-stars, since they're both on my fantasy keeper squad. ;-) Just my 2 and a half cents worth.

by kiloman on Jun 2, 2007 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

fair amount of K's?

Marrero: 34Ks/188 ABs, coming in comfortably under the 1:5 ratio you want to see in an elite prospect.

Anderson: 46Ks/191 ABs, comfortably (though not dramatically) above 5:1.

Marrero's not Alberto Callaspo or anything, but his contact rate is fine, and he can hardly be considered an all-or-nothing hitter.

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by jhelfgott on Jun 2, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

These guys are basically even, which is why I posed the question. Just wanted to get a good discussion going on the two.

by guru4u on Jun 2, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contact

Marrero's hitting for more power AND significantly better contact than Anderson. The walks are there for Lars, but he's K-ing more than you want to see from an elite prospect, and it's because he's looking at a lot of pitches, not because he's swinging from the heels. Lars's approach is fixable and should naturally get better after seeing a lot more pitches, but you hate to see a power prospect k-ing a lot without regularly driving the ball when he makes contact.

Marrero, on the other hand, might not be a walk machine, but contact + mammoth power for someone so young (technically by the July 1 rule he's only 18 this year, but I always found the distinction silly) is a VERY good sign.

Also, Marrero's a year younger, and plate discipline has a better record of naturally improving from low minors onwards than contact problems.

Marrero by far at this point.

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by jhelfgott on Jun 2, 2007 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs