What should the Brewers do?

by jahs34 on May 9, 2007 11:30 AM EDT Comment 30 comments

There is an article today at hardball times, talking about the Braun situation.

His bat is major league ready and he should be in the big leagues now, more even with the crappy combo they have at third base right now.

The thing is, his probably not up now because of service time, they are a small market organization and want to make the most of it.

But i'm thinking, they do have a huge chance to win this season, what if, instead of calling up Braun and Gallardo, why don't they trade them for Miguel Cabrera, they would have arguably the best lineup on the National League, the problem there is a really big chance he would be a half a season rental.

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miguel cabrera still has 2 more years of service

before free agency, so it wouldn't be a 1 and done type thing.

those two years are going to be extremely expensive though.

bazardo, koronka, durbin, and madson
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by overlord on May 9, 2007 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I thought it he was due this year, if he is not a year rental it makes a lot of sense imho.

by jahs34 on May 9, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting

But if the brewers are worried about service time and retaining their talent it wouldn't make much sense to trade for mcab who is a free agent soon.

If the brewers are making a serious run in the division and nobody is catching them they'll probably keep them down and call them up in September. If someone is nipping at their heels they'll probably call him up around the All star break to give the team a boost because making the playoffs after lots of dismal years would be a great boost to their fans, income, ect.

by Team Moneyball on May 9, 2007 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What would they use

to acquire Cabrera? Braun is a likely candidate to get dealt. I would think they would be in much better shape by promoting Braun and eating the service time than dealing him + another prospect (probably someone like Jeffries) to acquire a half-season rental.

If they want to truly compete this year, they shoudl promote Braun.

by guru4u on May 9, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Braun and Gallardo for him

Or maybe Turnbow plus one of them.

by jahs34 on May 9, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

Look, I know that these guys are excellent prospects, but Cabrera might be the most valuable property in baseball right now. Maybe the Marlins won't be able to afford him in the next couple of years, but to think that a combination of these players would get him is, at this point, simply ludicrous.

by jc3 on May 9, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I would would argue that for the Marlins to get two TOP prospects both already in AAA and dominating would be a pretty fair deal for MCab who they likely can't afford anyways. I'm not saying that the Brewers might have to add in something else like Turnbow, but I wouldn't say it is ludicrous and would think the Marlins would be interested if the Brewers were to make that offer.

Who else could offer this kind of top level MLB ready talent?

by bunner19 on May 9, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marlins dealt Beckett/Lowell

for Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez... arguably Beckett was one of the best young pitchers at the time.

To me, Gallardo AND Braun certainly doesn't seem like a laughable offer, that the Marlins wouldn't even consider.

by NewKidInTown on May 9, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lowell

Arguably a very different situation, since the Marlins needed to get out from under Lowell's big contract. Plus, Beckett, while he'd shown flashes of brilliance, had also shown a complete inability to stay healthy.

by Yakker on May 9, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade

First of all, I think the Marlins will trade Willis way before they deal Cabrera to help them financially. Secondly, do any of you realize how good Cabrera is? He's one of the top 5 players in baseball and he's relatively cheap and affordable for them for the next couple of years. As far as on the field talent is concerned, Cabrera is miles ahead of both of these guys as of this point.

If I'm the Marlins, I start with Prince Fielder, then Rickie Weeks (they don't need Hardy). Young, cheap players for now, and at least proven (to a certain extent) in the NL.

If you get Braun, is he a 3B or an OF? That changes his value significantly. Gallardo is a terrific prospect, but he's just a prospect.

People who write on this site tend to overrate prospects, and I think this is an excellent case in point. IMO, Florida shouldn't have a franchise if they need to make a deal like this.

As a side note, I thought that Turnbow + one of them was the real laughable deal. I wouldn't do either, but the one with Turnbow put a big smile on my face...

by jc3 on May 10, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most Vauable sure..

But if you don't think the Marlins would consider this, you're crazy! Braun is the perfect position player at 3rd and Gallardo is a great top of the rotation arm. I'm not saying it would definitely happen but they'd think about it.

by JDSussman on May 9, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

Assuming Florida was looking to trade M-Cab, they probably couldn't get a better deal than a Braun-Gallardo package. Two high-upside prospects that are close to MLB ready and will be cheap for awhile.

IMO, this is the exact type of deal that Florida would be looking for if they decided to deal Cabrera.

by eazyb81 on May 9, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

laugh track

That's not a laughable offer.

If anything, it would be the other way around. I can't see why Milwaukee would make that trade.

While Cabrera is worth more than Beckett was at the time, he's at least in the same ballpark.

Gallardo is significantly better than Anibal Sanchez was. Way way way better. And Braun is much more projectable than Hanley was wat the time.

It looks know, like Florida pulled of a heist in that deal and Gallardo/Braun is a better package than Hanley/Anibal.

by Curtis Pride on May 9, 2007 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In a perfect world...

In a perfect world, a guy as young as Gallardo gets in at least a half season at Triple-A before giving the major league rotation a boost. I'm sure the Yankees and Giants would have liked their top pitching prospects to get in a half year at triple-A, but they had pressing needs at the major league level.

Braun I can see them calling up as early this month. Again, he's someone you would like to see spend a half season at Triple-A refining his defense, but the Brewers' third base platoon is really a problem.

by FI on May 9, 2007 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

Being a small market team they won't really be able to afford MCab for the next 2 years. Braun and Gallardo combined will cost MUCH less.

Their best option is to not stir the pot too much because their team is doing so well. Leave Braun and Gallardo in AAA until the team starts to slip or someone starts to catch them. Braun still needs some work on his D so let him continue to develop in AAA...Gallardo is ready but let him get a bit more AAA time under his belt.

I'd predict a call up for both near the All-Star break.

by bunner19 on May 9, 2007 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Trade

I think that Cabrera for Braun/Gallardo would make perfect sense for both teams.

by GregJP on May 9, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Braun callup prediction

Braun will be called up on June 8th. After, I believe, June 1st you can call up minor leaguers and you wont lose a full year on the arbitration eligible clock. June 8th is when they start a interleague road trip. So the Brewers will need a DH. Then Braun can play a little 3b and DH. They did the exact same thing with Prince Fielder two years ago.

Barring injuries or a complete implosion of one of the Brewers current SP, Gallardo will not get called up until much later IMO.

by ASan4HOF on May 9, 2007 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well, i've got my own prediction.

i think braun's most likely to be called up on june 8th, so they can DH him in interleague. they did the same exact thing with fielder 2 years ago.

by wily mo on May 9, 2007 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

Cabs isn't available and if he was, it would be a 29 team battle royale for who can come up with the best package

Future Fish

by Maverick on May 9, 2007 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dougie doesn't get down like that

While it is intriguing to think the Crew could get a player of Cabrera's stature to solidify that offense, I have trouble even entertaining this thought because Doug Melvin A) simply doesn't trade for superstars with only 1 year left, and B) will not deal his two top prospects (who are amongst the Top 15 in all of baseball) at any rate.

Is this sound decision-making? The Brewers, despite their successes early on, still are a small-market team. Their owner is on record saying that he will spend money at the deadline if it improves the club, but how much money is yet TBD - either way, I don't believe it is enough to afford Miggy.

But I have to agree, a package of Braun/Gallardo (if offered) would be one if not the top offer FLA would receive.

by mjwelch11 on May 9, 2007 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cost

First off, Cabrera won't be a FA until after 2009, so that's 2 and a half years the Brewers would have him for if they traded for him.

Second, adding Cabrera might not be that big of a payroll addition for the next couple of years. With the contract of Miller, Graffanino, and Koskie expiring after this year, the $2.1 million the Brewers are paying for Brady Clark, and the $6.5 million they can save by going with the $500K buyout on Jenkins contract, they free up $16.1 million in salary for next year. I know there are raises due to other players, but I'm guessing the payroll could be bumped to accomodate M-Cab.

I'm not saying I'm advocating this deal, but it is a fair offer for both sides and could work out money wise.

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico."-Harry Caray

by gatling on May 9, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally

I think this is where we forget the genius of Wayne Huizenga. Who was the best at maximizing wins from a small budget. If the Brew Crew aren't ready to spend money towards keeping their young guys, than I consider them implore the same strategy that Wayne did in Florida. Take all the talent you have and go with that. With their hitting and rotation right now, I think they're better than what Detroit had last year, and better than St. Louis last year. I think they have a real shot. Take this talent, milk it for 2-4 more years, which is when I think they lose Hardy, Prince, Weeks, etc, and have a fire sale. Trade it all for quality young guys. You don't lose money, and you bulk up your farm system. That's what I think the Brewers should do. No need to trade, I'd bring up Braun within the next month, and give Gallardo two more starts in the minors. If he has the same performence in those as he's had so far, call him up too.

by sagecoll on May 9, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

extension

If the Brewers could get Cabrera to agree to a reasonably affordable extension (like $15-$20 million per year), I'd be all over that trade. Unfortunately, I think he and his agent are going to be looking for A-Rod money come 2009, if not more, and I can't see that fitting into the Brewers' budget.

I've been kicking around another trade in my head, sending Sheets to Atlanta for a package based around Saltalamacchia. Atlanta's going to hold onto Salty for frontline pitching, and with Capuano already on hand and Gallardo arriving soon, I think the Brewers can afford to deal Sheets given his questionable health going forward (and potentially a hefty extension in the next year or two). Right now I'm thinking Sheets for Salty, Lillibridge, and Bob Wickman (more to even up salaries than anything else) sounds reasonable...

"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on May 9, 2007 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Estrada

Estrada is a solid C and not expensive or overly old...I don't think that Salty gives them any real improvement and losing Sheets really hurts their rotation. You can't expect Gallardo to step in and replace Sheets right away...

by bunner19 on May 9, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt

The Braves would go for that. Sheets, when healthy, can be a dominant pitcher. However, he hasn't been healthy in years and would likely need a hefty raise to agree to an extension.

I imagine the Braves want quite a bit more for Salty, much less Salty/Lillibridge/Wickman.

by Yakker on May 9, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait

Are you saying Salty is more valuable than Sheets?

That's pretty ridiculous. Sure, Sheets has had trouble staying healthy recently - but he averaged over 220 IP from 2002-2004, and his last 2 injury "plagued" years still resulted in 260+ IP and a 3.53 ERA over 2 years. That production, considered a low point for Sheets, is arguably worth more than Salty. He has a contract that is relatively cheap.

Salty, while definitely an excellent prospect, did struggle immensely the first half of last year. He has a lot of ground to cover before he can be declared a safe bet as an above average major leaguer.

Sheets' 3 year average (2004-2006)

167 IP
3.14 ERA
9.4 K/9
1.2 BB/9

I'll be the first A+ prospect...

by ufoboy90 on May 9, 2007 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets v Salty

I'm saying that I don't think the Braves would trade Salty straight up for Sheets. Value has something to do with that, as do salary, health, and years of control.

Sheets has been a fine pitcher. However, for precisely the reasons the Brewers fan identified above as reasons to trade him, I think the Braves would be leery. They value health and inexpensiveness, Sheets has neither (he's "only" due $10M and $11M the next two years, but I do not think the Braves would trade for him unless they felt they could work out an extension, which would be significantly higher).

Finally, taking your stats another way, one sees the following ERA trend (I'm not a big fan of using ERA, but just to compare apples and apples):

2.70
3.33
3.82
4.04 (only 42 IPs, but the 4.5 K/9 screams hidden injury)

As a GM, is that a guy you'd trade for?

by Yakker on May 9, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In a heart beat

That trade would be done. Milwaukee would never do that though. Salty straight up for Sheets or Harden would be done so fast by the Braves.

by JDSussman on May 9, 2007 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves might deal Salty, but...

Not along with Wickman and Lillibridge (who they're very high on).

Besides, I still say Salty sticks around until the off-season.

As far as the Braun goes, I like the idea that they'll call him up to DH in the interleague games. They also might leave him up, since I'm pretty sure that'll be past the service time deadline they'd need to keep control of him for 6 more years, which I think is the more important issue. They'll let him work on his defense in the minors and call him up when they can maximize the service time they can get out of him.

Also, Estrada's a fine catcher. Why would they want another one, anyways?

by mraver on May 9, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Opinions

Thanks for the good discussion. Yeah, Lillibridge is probably overkill. I thought that the Braves weren't really all that high on him, but even if they are he's probably more too valuable to deal away as a sort of throw-in.

Here's why I think a deal along these lines makes all sorts of sense though. Estrada is just an empty batting average with decent defense. That's good by catching standards, but there's room for an upgrade. He's also 31, and furthermore he's a free agent after next year. They're also likely to part ways with Damian Miller, so long-term replacements are needed. Unless Lou Palmisano really has suddenly broken out, the only notable catcher in the system is Angel Salome, who is several years away and has had some injury issues.

From the Braves' perspective, Sheets is way more valuable to the Braves than Salty is unless McCann is hurt very badly, and the way I see it, Sheets is the best they're going to get for Salty. He's about the third-best pitcher who's potentially available in the next few years, behind Johan Santana and in the mix with Peavy, Lackey, and Sabathia, and Atlanta's in the market for starting pitching. Santana's probably too expensive, and I wouldn't count on more than one of the other guys hitting the market come 2008. I don't think any of them will be available in trade either, so aside from Sheets, who else is even available at the deadline? Baldelli? Sheets is the most valuable player that I see potentially being on the market.

Of course Sheets isn't going anywhere if he's hurt, but if he's healthy and pitches well between now and July (though the Brewers would probably keep him if he's totally dominant), there's no way Atlanta wouldn't trade a blocked catching prospect straight up for him (and the Brewers would be right to demand more), save budgetary concerns. That's what Wickman is for. As I understand it the Braves' ownership are pretty budget-conscious right now and wouldn't add $11 million-ish. Wickman makes $6.5 mil this year, which mitigates the hit. He's very mediocre at this stage; I refuse to believe that parting with him would be any sort of impediment to a deal.

"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on May 9, 2007 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs