Poll: Top HS pitcher in draft

by SBcaptain2 on May 5, 2007 6:28 PM EDT Comment 43 comments

Who do you think is the best HS pitcher in the draft this year?

filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler

Poll

Who is it?

Michael Main

8 votes

Jake McGeary

10 votes

Neil Ramirez

5 votes

Jarrod Parker

10 votes

Other

2 votes

Matt Harvey

23 votes

Rick Porcello

80 votes

Blake Beavan

14 votes

Madison Bumgarner

23 votes

Philippe Aumont

13 votes

188 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 43 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Porcello

I heard he is the top one. Is this class comparible to the 2004 class of Hughes, Bailey, Adenhart, and Gallardo or is that one rare special class of pitching prospects.

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2007 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eric Hurley

don't forget eric hurley

by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2007 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This appears

to be a very strong class, but we won't know how they stack up until they start pitching in pro ball.

by SBcaptain2 on May 5, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Porcello =

beast.

by SenorGato88 on May 5, 2007 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Better

This is the strongest prep class of the last 10-20 years. A lot of high-ceiling players and the class is extremely deep. Should be a great draft to restock the systems with talented kids.

by eazyb81 on May 5, 2007 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from that list

my favorites and how i would rank them...

Rick Porcello
Jack McGeary
Blake Beavan
Jarrod Parker
Matt Harvey
Phill Aumont
Madison Bumgarner
Neil Ramirez
Michael Main

by npurcell on May 5, 2007 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i would say

Porcello
Harvey
Aumont
Bumgarner
Beaven
Parker
Smoker
Main
McGeary
Ramirez

by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2007 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good list

Only I'd put Main down on the bottom. I think he's going to be drafted as an OF and I like Bumgarner a little better than Aumont - although it's damn close.

by slurve on May 5, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh

Typically guys that can throw 99 MPH don't get drafted as an OF...He'll be a pitcher till he proves he can't do it.

by doublestix on May 5, 2007 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Typically, they don't - but he is also said to be 5-tool as an OF with a better likelyhood of reaching his ceiling as on offensive player. The talk of him being drafted as an OF'er is picking up steam.

by slurve on May 5, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair

I didn't know that.

I still think though, that he'll be a pitcher first. 18 year olds that throw 99 don't grow on trees. He might be Colt Griffin, or he might be Joel Zumaya.

by doublestix on May 5, 2007 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

but there isn't much action on his fastball, and that is a concern to pro scouts. He can throw it by kids in high school, but at this point he'll get eaten alive in A ball.

I think there is a 50/50 chance he will get drafted as an OF, he just oozes plus tools. He reminds me of Josh Hamilton when he was coming out - just a sick athlete that can do anything on the field.

by eazyb81 on May 6, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

It's a tossup between Harvey and Porcello, Porcello got my vote.

by SBcaptain2 on May 5, 2007 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Porcello

Him and Harvey were neck and neck entering this season, but Porcello's secondary stuff has progressed nicely while Harvey is still struggling in that aspect.

6'5" projectable frame, smooth delivery that he repeats well, easy mid-90's gas, excellent breaking pitches, reportedly great makeup - there isn't much not to like about the kid. Looking like he may be Josh Beckett version 2.0.

by eazyb81 on May 5, 2007 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I Chose Porcello

But, honestly, I'm just going by what BaseballAmerica has told me - which I'm guessing is what a lot of people have done. I need scouting reports and stats against other professionals before I'd be willing to make any real judgments.

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 5, 2007 8:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

video

milb.com has video up of harvey, bumgarner, aumont, beaven, main, mcgeary, and parker if you want to check them out.

by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't find this

Do you have a link?

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 5, 2007 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

link

here is a link to matt harvey's page, just use the drop down to go to the other player pages.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=harvey

by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2007 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the Link

After watching some of the videos, I thought that Aumont and Bumgarner really stood out. Especially Bumgarner who showed easy mid-90's gas from the left side. Too bad there's not a video for Porcello...

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 5, 2007 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Harvey...

I like this guy alot.

The one problem I do have is that he comes straight over the top. Because of his height, it really gives his fastball and curveball a great plane. Still, I think it leaves him suspectible to shoulder problems. You need to be very strong, flexible, and in terrific shape to be doing that for long.

by SenorGato88 on May 6, 2007 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Over the Top

You are right. Of all the videos on that site, Harvey's is the most over-the-top delivery. I know that the rotator cuff is what enables you to raise your arm overhead. I may not be remembering my anatomy right, but I don't think the muscles attached to the rotator cuff actually do the raising. They anchor the scapula to keep it from winging out and that allows the other shoulder muscles to raise the arm. It would seem intuitive then that an over-the-top delivery might lead to more shoulder problems in general and rotator cuff problems in particular. Is that in fact the case? Do overhand pitchers get more shoulder injuries than their 3/4 or sidearm counterparts?

By contrast, Blake Beavan never gets his arm higher than his ear. He keeps the shoulder tucked in low. He certainly isn't asking his rotator cuff to pull his arm up, but does that put more stress on the elbow?

by DrBGiantsfan on May 6, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Underhand

I've heard that softball pitchers last forever. Eddie "The King and His Court" Feigner comes to mind. The explanation Feigner gave in the program of his game I attended as a kid was that underhand was the most natural throwing motion that put the least strain on any part of the arm. True? I don't know.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 6, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard this too

not just for softballers, but for "submarine" baseball pitchers as well.

by slurve on May 6, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its not like

any of us have any idea.

The stats dont mean a thing (unless they are bad).
The scouting reports aren't as detailed as they are for minor leaguers, unless you subscribe to PG or something, and I doubt anyone here as seen more than 1 or 2 of em. Certainly not half of that list.

Its just about what you hear about em at this point, so its impossible to really say.

by nms on May 5, 2007 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

true

but its still fun to speculate

by SBcaptain2 on May 5, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't go that far

This forum is for hardcore fans that follow minor league prospects. I'm sure that are quite a few guys on here that follow the top prep players as well.

The best kids travel all over the country during the summer to go to tournaments in Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, etc, so there have been many opportunities to see these kids play besides actually going to their high school. I went to the Joplin games this year and saw just about every kid on this list (I don't think Aumont was there), and i'm sure I wasn't the only one.

by eazyb81 on May 6, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No offense...

but this isn't even a debate. On stuff alone it's Porcello, and that's not even taking into account the Jersey pedigree.

by templeUsox on May 5, 2007 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So this Porcello is a better prospect

than both Hughes, Bailey, and Gallardo at their drafted ages.

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2007 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes

except maybe bailey who everyone knew had major upside. but if i remember the hype around that draft i doubt he will garner the attention that weaver, verlander and niemann got as the top pitching prospects. i think everyone is going to view the pitching crop this year as price and everyone else.

by kaisertown on May 6, 2007 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Price + Porcello

and everyone else.

Porcello looks special, I'm going to try to catch a few Seton Hall Prep games this month to watch him and his teammate.

by SenorGato88 on May 6, 2007 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seton Hall Prep

Porcello isn't the only stud on that team. Brooks and Danieli are future pros as well, which is why they are everyone's #1 team in the country at this point.

Less than a month left in their season, so I would hurry and get to a game if at all possible.

by eazyb81 on May 6, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a...

Danieli fan yet.

Maybe its just the draft video, but he really telegraphs his curveball and it almost looks like hes pushing his fastball to keep it down.

But like I said I'm going to try to catch at least one of both of these guys starts.

by SenorGato88 on May 6, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Delivery

Thanks to whoever provided the link to those prospect videos. I notice that virtually all those pitchers from Andrew Brackman to Madison Bumgarner, while all tall, all have low 3/4 deliveries, almost sidearm. I'm curious if anybody has any insight into why. I can see that throwing from a lower slot may give you a better angle against a batter from the same side of the plate, but it doesn't necessarily help against batters from the opposite side of the plate. In addition, it tends to flatten out breaking balls and neutralizes the advantage that a tall pitcher has in throwing the ball on a downward plane.

So, what is better, low arm slot or over-the-top, or does it matter?

by DrBGiantsfan on May 5, 2007 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tom House

A lot of people throw 3/4, though perhaps there's an abnormally high number of them this year. It's just what people do... I don't think you can make generalizations about the effects of arm slot like the you did. If a guy naturally throws straight overhand and drops down to the side, the breaking ball will usually flatten, but if the guy naturally throws 3/4 or sidearm he probably gets the most break on it from that angle. What works really varies from pitcher to pitcher, obviously, and arm slot is no exception.

Here's what Tom House had to say on the subject of arm slots, based on work he did at the National Pitching Association lab in San Diego, taken from a BP Q&A. It's about pitching mechanics, and not directly related to these prospects, but I thought it's interesting and relevant:

There is no perfect forearm angle. Over-the-top works for about 25% of the pitching population. Most pitchers are three-quarters. That would be why to our eye they appear to be most the appealing, because we see the most of that. Twenty percent throw sidearm and there's about 3-5% that throw below sidearm, the submarine guys. But all of the them are equally efficient, based on what the arm does relative to the spine, relative to release point, if into foot-strike you have balance, posture, opposite and equal, hips deliver shoulders, shoulders deliver arm. The arm belongs to the kid, not to you and me and us to dictate what the arm slot should be. So long story short, leave the throwing arm alone; it's genetically predetermined.

"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on May 6, 2007 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Generalizations?

Thank you for the response. It was helpful, but since when was I making generalizations? I was just asking some questions. I don't think putting the words "tend to" constitutes a generalization. I've seen several scouting reports on Jonathan Sanchez commenting on his low arm angle that say it tends to make his breaking ball "flatten out." I might add that House's comments don't specifically address that question.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 6, 2007 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what you said

Perhaps I didn't phrase it the right way. What I meant was that I don't think that you can say that throwing from a lower slot "tends to" do anything when it comes to someone's basic delivery. Chad Bradford gained tons of movement by dropping his slot, eventually all the way from overhand to underhand. Sanchez's slot could be flattening his pitches, certainly. I believe it's something that has to be taken entirely case-by-case.

Keep in mind House's comments were taken out of context; his main point is that there's no reason to tinker with someone's arm slot based on some sort of prototypical delivery. If someone's not getting results with what he's doing, though, carefully experimenting with a change might be advisable.

As for GMs' preference, of course results are the bottom line. I've heard sidearmers do statistically have more pronounced platoon splits than overhand pitchers, which makes a lot of sense intuitively, and factors like that might lead to pitchers of certain slots to be drafted lower than others (absent evidence that the particular pitcher may be an exception). But yeah, that is a consideration.

Also, just to be clear, House doesn't say that the pitcher's whole delivery is all genetic. The rest should be adjusted and optimized (ideally at a young age). It's just the arm slot that really doesn't really matter mechanically, and changing it from what a pitcher naturally does without good reason probably does more harm than good.

"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on May 6, 2007 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Movement

Maybe Bradford gets tons of movement from his delivery, but I guarantee you it ain't a 12/6 curveball! Sure, you can get movement from any angle, but it's going to be different movement.

Sanchez isn't the only scouting report I've ever read. A common theme in scouting reports that I have read is that lower arm slots tend to flatten out breaking pitches so if that's wrong, there are a whole lot more people out there who know a whole lot more about the game than I do who are wrong too.

Once again, the question of whether it's wise to mess with a delivery that a pitcher is comfortable with is totally separate from the question of which delivery is more desirable. Perhaps it doesn't matter, a possibility I raised in my original post on this subject. I tend to believe that it is advantageous for a team to have pitchers with a variety of deliveries so as to give opposing batters different looks.

Just thinking about HOF or certain future HOF pitchers, it seems to me that the majority throw over-the-top. Randy Johnson throws low 3/4 but Clemens, Pedro, Maddux all over-the-top. Thinking back to pitchers from the past, Seaver, Gibson, Koufax...all over-the-top. Marichal could and did throw from any angle, but he was mostly over-the-top from what I remember.

I just thought it was interesting to see all these tall pitchers in those videos at least partially neutralizing their height asset by throwing from a lower arm slot.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 6, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Preferences

BTW. House's comments also do not address the question of whether, as a scouting director, you might prefer a pitcher with an over-the-top delivery or a lower arm slot.

I might also add that Tim Lincecum's story, as it pertains to his dad teaching him his delivery would tend to dispute House's theory that it's all genetic.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 6, 2007 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Opinion

Granted it's amateurish...

I feel like the 3/4 arm slot is preferred to the over-the-top or sidearm deliveries because it is more conducive to 2-plane break on breaking pitches. Over-the-top seems to lead to 12-6 curves and sidearm seems to lead to flat sliders or slurves. The 3/4 arm slot seems to lead to the 1-7 or 11-5 break that makes it effective against both righties and lefties. In addition, I believe that the 3/4 arm slot leads to a bit more action on the fastball as it is spinning at an angle rather than straight downward. JMHO

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 6, 2007 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FB Movement

I have also read that a lower arm slot tend to give more FB movement. I've also read many times that a downward plane on the FB is something to be desired. It just seems to me that by dropping down, you lose some of that downward plane.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 6, 2007 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree About the Downward Plane

I guess it just depends on the pitcher and his strengths. I think that the downward plane is more important for pitchers that are trying to be sinker/groundball types rather than those that are truly dominant. One other thing I forgot to mention in my post - I think that the 3/4 arm slot is also more conducive to hiding the ball as it comes from behing your head. I think that hitters usually get a better look at the other slots.

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 6, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't Want to Start a New Diary

And since this is draft related I thought I'd throw it in here.

I got a chance to watch Jess Todd today and he dominated once again (coming 1 out shy of a shutout). If he could have finished it - it would have been his third complete game in a row. Todd started the season in the Razorback bullpen but has since moved to the rotation and is dominating as a starter (after struggling in relief). I wish I had his numbers since he has moved to the rotation.

Jess is a big hard throwing righty with the chance for 2 plus pitches - a FB that can reach the mid-90's and a great slider. After today, here is his season line:

67.3IP 63H 23ER 20BB 85K 1HRA 5S 2CG 3.07ERA

Those numbers are even more impressive when you factor in that he struggled as a reliever. I originally thought that Jess would be drafted in 5th-7th rounds but I'm guessing his recent performance as a starter is improving his draft stock. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as high as the 3rd round. Anyways, just someone to keep an eye on...

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 6, 2007 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can't say I've read

particularly great things about Harvey. OK fastball, not a ton of movement, not that great of velocity, not that great of secondary stuff. I'm sure there's something scouts love about him to have him ranked this high.

Having never seen any of them with my own eyes, I probably like the sound of Bumgarner the best - LHP who can spin it at 95 with some movement, but who has good control. He has no secondary pitches, but he can learn those in the minors, as long as he doesn't have a delivery which wouldn't be conducive to both maintaining his control and developing secondary pitches (in which case he'd drop in my book).

Will Eli be showering in Evian at last?

by Brickhaus on May 7, 2007 6:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs