Clay Buchholz

by CrimsonLiederhosen on May 30, 2007 3:36 AM EDT

One of the ESPN wiseguys recently put Clay Buchholz, who recently outpitched his idol Roger Clemens, as one of the top 5 pitching prospects in baseball, specifically in front of Phil Hughes. Any thoughts, opposed to or in favor of this position? Where do you see Buchholz in comparison to his peers? For that matter, what about Michael Bowden, where does he rank now in your eyes?

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Age

He is a top prospect. No doubt. However, Hughes was in his 19-20 year at AA while Buchholz is in his 22-23 year at AA.

by bob420 on May 30, 2007 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

Prospect rank

I think that by the end of the year, with probably promotions of Gallardo, Hughes, and Bailey, Buchholz will be considered one of if not the top pitching prospect in the game.

The age thing is a valid point, but it should also be noted that this guy hasn't been pitching for as long as other 22 year olds. Also, I'm not sure how useful it is to compare him to Phil Hughes...

As for Bowden - he looks like quite a similar pitcher from the stats to Buchholz, doesn't he? Maybe he doesn't have quite the electric stuff or an out pitch like Buchholz' curve, but as far as their BB rates and other control type stats, they look pretty comparable. And Bowden is quite a bit younger, too. Just about the only negative I ever hear about Bowden is the mechanics thing, but I've grown pretty tired of that talk...

by whonichol on May 30, 2007 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

Out-pitch

From what I've seen and heard, Buchholz's out pitch seems to be his changeup, which has made hitters look absolutely silly this year. There have been several times this year where he has thrown three straight changeups to hitters and gotten 3 straight swings and misses. His curve is also good, but I'm under the impression that Bowden's best pitch is his curveball, and that it is better than Buchholz's curve

by Jgaztambide on May 30, 2007 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

If that curveball isn't his out-pitch...

...then the changeup must be an 81.

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on May 30, 2007 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

i think the scary thing is...

he doesn't have one out pitch he has several. And there is no doubt he will be a top 3 pitching prospect going in to next season.

by kaisertown on May 30, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

got a link?

my guess is keith law since he's clueless

by PooNani on May 30, 2007 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

Bowden

Looks to be struggling a little bit with the BB in AA.

by bob420 on May 30, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

Rationale

I don't necessarily agree with Buchholz > Hughes, but just to play devil's advocate:

Buchholz is a couple years older, but he started focusing on pitching later in life and is therefore comparable in terms of experience.
His 7:1 K/BB ratio is better than what Hughes accomplished in Double-A. Hughes K'd about 30% of batters last year while Buchholz is striking out 35% ... a significant difference.
Buchholz' secondary stuff might be better. They both have great curveballs, but Buchholz' change is better than Hughes'. So if somebody though that was real important, I could see them rating his stuff ahead of Hughes'. Personally I think Hughes' two-seamer gives him an edge overall, but I could understand other perspectives on this.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 30, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

Well ...

add in the fact that there's likely to be a ton less wear and tear on Buchholz's arm from his late start, and the fact that he'll hit the arm-stressing majors at a more physically mature age, and I like Buchholz as much as if not more than Hughes.

by Flynn Blake on May 30, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

my thoughts

I doubt best prospect but he is probably top 5, Gallardo is better so is Andrew Miller and Adam Miller IMHO, he probably slots in right after those guys...Bowden is a bit lower as his stuff isnt as good and hes also a little older than Bucholz if my memory serves me

by Kanst42 on May 30, 2007 12:23 PM EDT reply actions

FYI

Bowden is nearly two years younger than Buchholz.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 30, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

BUCHHOLZ >>>>>> HUGHES

Clearly, a player old for AA dominating it is better than last year's consensus top pitching prospect. I mean, I can see him in AA dominating RIGHT NOW!!!

Buchholz is a fine pitcher and certainly one of the best prospects in the game, but this is borderline silly impatience.

by limozeen on May 30, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

Age

Is it really the age when hitting the arm stressing majors or the years having pitched? Is a more mature arm more important or just an older guy?

by bob420 on May 30, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

age and injury

one thing is well-established: pitchers are quite a bit more likely to have a serious arm/shoulder injury before age 23 than afterwards. so that is a point in buchholz's favor.

also, i think nate silver did a study that shows that pitcher's translated K rates peak at about age 21 (much earlier than most people think) and that improvements thereafter are merely incremental. slightly better command, fewer HR, etc.

by jpahk on May 30, 2007 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm...

technically, that's true. But just to clarify, it may not be because players may be less suscpetible to injury after age 23. Instead, it may be that those guys still pitching after age-23 are the ones whose inherent "arm-healthiness" was good enough to "survive" past age-23.

In which case, it may not be much of a factor for a guy who doesn't pick up a ball until after age-23 - he still hasn't gone thru 4 or 5 years of serious risk exposure to determine whether his arm is resilient enough to take the pounding.

by siddfynch on May 30, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's both

when you hit the high-stress seasons as well as mileage on the arm, but I don't have anything definitive to back that up with.

by Flynn Blake on May 30, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

And

the overuse that leads to damage usually happens before age 23.

Pitchers who throw 120-140 pitches a game before turning 23 are a big concern.

Keeping pitchers at or below 100 ppg before they hit that 22-23 mark will help limit damage done to the arm.

Part of that may be putting stress on undeveloped muscles, part of it may be the increased likelihood of poor mechanics damaging the arm -- especially if you're throwing 120 pitches.

by Montreal97 on May 30, 2007 2:42 PM EDT reply actions

One thing is clear

Buchholz was underrated by most people and publications coming into the season. Buchholz was probably one of the top 10 pitching prospects in baseball after the 2006 season, but he was ranked usually as the No. 20 or so pitching prospect in the game. That's good, but it certainly undervalued Buchholz's abilities and performance.

Now, is he at the level of Hughes? It's possible, especially given the health concerns with Hughes. Buchholz is certainly going to be one of the top 3 pitching prospects in basbeall after the 2007 season finishes.

by Badler on May 30, 2007 6:07 PM EDT reply actions

minor league pitcher game logs

Where can I see game logs for minor league pitchers. One view, where I can see his entire season start, by start. Usually I have to click back 5 days and see it isolated from one start to the prior one. (from BA or MinorLB.com)

by creepers on May 31, 2007 1:57 AM EDT reply actions